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Sunday, November 13, 2016

Geopolitically, you can relax... for a while

As local indigenous villages discover the power of tourism, they are putting in colorful gates

The speculation over Taiwan and the new Trump Administration has included some very strange assertions, especially from the KMT, that Taiwan might well become some kind of bargaining chip.

Nope. Not gonna happen. In fact, Taiwan's position vis-a-vis* the US is almost certainly going to improve. For starters, the new Sec of the Navy might well be Randy Forbes. Forbes is a longtime supporter of Taiwan. Forbes' staffer Alexander Gray will be on the Asia team -- also likes Taiwan. Other names mentioned include Randy Schriver, very pro-Taiwan, and perhaps the very gracious Steve Yates (a quiet inspiration for this blogger), very pro-Taiwan. Richard Armitage, who has long worked on Taiwan issues, has also been mentioned.

Most of those names will be familiar, but others might not be. Just in Taiwan very recently was Ed Feulner (note this 2011 piece), obvious where his sympathies are. And then there is Peter Navarro, in the news here with strong statements: Trump Advisor indicates Taiwan stance? "China is behaving like a bullying thug against Taiwan" (video). John Bolton, a longtime Taiwan supporter, has been rumored to be a possibility for Sec of State. Most of these people worked in the Bush Administration as well.

All of these people, and any eventual Trump Administration, will likely take a much harder line than the Clinton Administration on China, or so some insiders have already declared. The Trump Administration is not going to have any of those "We will achieve a breakthrough!" delusions that afflicted the Clinton Administration, nor do any of its people come out of consulting firms doing business with China. And in the geopolitical calculus that governs the Strait, when the US moves away from China, it moves towards Taiwan. Indeed, suggestions that the Trump Administration represents a fresh start for US-Taiwan relations are already flying into mags where such pieces appear.

But for those of you making mental calculations about when war is going to break out here in Asia, you should probably advance your timetables. Xi is not going to become less hardline, and the US is becoming even more hardline. Just last week Chinese "coast guard" vessels once again tested the Senkaku waters. And David Feith argued in WSJ that Trump will increase the Nuke Crisis in Asia

Interesting times...

*It is important if you are going to be a political commentator that you use this phrase.
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13 comments:

  1. typo: 40.6% satisfied with Tsai, not 46%

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  2. It will be interesting to see who Trump will appoint for his cabinet:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-what-trumps-foreign-policy-and-national-security-teams-could-look-like-2016-11

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  3. geopolitics aside, what had happened to the Clinton campaign should remind Trump to address cyber security.

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  4. Seeing what had happened to Clinton campaign, it'd be hard for Trump to ignore cyber security.

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  5. Can you please delineate what 'moving away' from China entails to you?

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  6. Delusional is thinking any of the above staffers are going to do anything for Taiwan, that a 'hard line' with China is a smart idea, or that an antiquated horse with blinders on rabid anti-China idealism is going to improve either Taiwan or the US standing.

    It might provide a few fleeting moments of excitement on some blogs for some "pro Taiwan" ideologues and cheerleaders stuck in 1992 but if you think a Trump administration guarantees anyone's safety give us a break.







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  7. ro Taiwan" ideologues and cheerleaders stuck in 1992 but if you think a Trump administration guarantees anyone's safety give us a break.

    Reading challenged, i see

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  8. Can you please delineate what 'moving away' from China entails to you?

    That's a fair question. Things like -- stop trying to please China on things like weapons sales to Taiwan. Stop pretending that China hasn't changed the status quo with the military build up.

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  9. "That's a fair question. Things like -- stop trying to please China on things like weapons sales to Taiwan. Stop pretending that China hasn't changed the status quo with the military build up".

    OK, but what's your end game with this? What do you hope to accomplish? What sorts of changes are you hoping to enact in them? What is realistic to expect they will change?




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  10. OK, but what's your end game with this? What do you hope to accomplish? What sorts of changes are you hoping to enact in them? What is realistic to expect they will change?


    The end game is the war that is coming. What would I like them to accomplish? Closer mil relations with Taiwan and better preparation for the coming war here in Asia, among others. I also hope they will help beef up Taiwan relations with other ASEAN states, and perhaps India. The potential for an alliance is there, but the architecture and energy is missing.

    I have always expected a war, and dreaded what it meant on a Dem watch with so many Dem advisers doing business with China.

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  11. Letter from Sisowath Sirik Matak to US ambassador to Cambodia John Gunther Dean, April 12 1975 shortly before the fall of Phnom Penh:

    "I thank you very sincerely for your letter and for your offer to transport me towards freedom. I cannot, alas, leave in such a cowardly fashion. As for you and in particular for your great country, I never believed for a moment that you would have this sentiment of abandoning a people which has chosen liberty. You have refused us your protection and we can do nothing about it. You leave us and it is my wish that you and your country will find happiness under the sky. But mark it well that, if I shall die here on the spot and in my country that I love, it is too bad because we are all born and must die one day. I have only committed the mistake of believing in you, the Americans. Please accept, Excellency, my dear friend, my faithful and friendly sentiments. Prince Sirik Matak.[1].[20]"

    Sisowath was executed April 21st.

    ____

    See any parallels?




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  12. Why are you assuming war is an eventuality? Support this idea please. How does that play out in your mind?

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  13. Oh never mind, you meant that war is eventuality in Asia because the bozos you 're bizarrely insisting will keep us safe are poking the bear and will initiate one.

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