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Monday, August 01, 2016

China Tourism Numbers: Massaged?

Period
Chinese
HKK + Mac
All China
MovChi  
MovHkk
Dec 13
240,629
122,365
362,994
Up
Up
Jan 14
268,861
73,629
342,490
Up
Down
Feb 14
305,390
91,294
396,684
Up
Up
Mar 14
361,470
98,332
459,082
Up
Up
Apr 14
377,197
146,097
523,294
Up
Up
May 14
333,845
116,585
450,430
Down
Down
Jun 14
315,166
133,550
448,716
Down
Up
Jul 14
343,709
132,831
476,540
Up
Down
Aug 14
312,549
147,903
460,452
Down
Up
Sep 14
341,729
105,865
447,591
Up
Down
Oct 14
347,778
95,217
442,995
Up
Down
Nov 14
332,517
99,443
431,960
Down
Up
Dec 14
346,941
135,024
481,965
Up
Up
Jan 15
321,458
74,302
395760
Down
Down
Feb 15
406,239
97,216
503,455
Up
Up
Mar 15
279,703
114,473
394,176
Down
Up
Apr 15
358,798
145,479
504,277
Up
Up
May 15
372,766
124,758
497,524
Up
Down
Jun 15
308,087
139,920
448,007
Down
Up
Jul 15
352,625
142,515
495,140
Up
Up
Aug 15
367,736
160,829
528,565
Up
Up
Sep 15
345,243
118,255
463,498
Down
Down
Oct 15
386,663
113,549
500,212
Up
Down
Nov 15
357,655
118,026
475,681
Down
Up
Dec 15
327,129
164,275
491,439
Down
Up
Jan  16
366,409
93,448
459,857
Up
Down
Feb 16
405,307
114,431
519,738
Up
Up
Mar 16
363,878
164,894
528,772
Down
Up
Apr 16
375,567
110,716
486,283
Up
Down
May 16
327,254
125,302
452,556
Down
Up
Jun 16
271,478
143,276
414754
Down
Up

Inspired by this article on Thai tourism and challenges to the Tsai Administration in a Thai newspaper, which said...
Taiwan used to be a popular destination for Thai tourists and workers during the boom years of the 1990s and 2000s. Thailand was among the top-three largest Asean points of origin for tourists visiting Taiwan last year, numbering 70,000. But after Japan granted visa-free entry to Thai tourists three years ago, many have headed northbound with a near-record high of 1 million visitors last year.
....I was studying the tourism numbers wondering if the Thai tourism mini-boom would offset the loss of Chinese group tourists, when I went "huh". If you look at the movements of the numbers something interesting occurs in Oct 2015, when Taiwan officials started claiming that there would be big tourism cuts, because of the election...
Ko Mu-chou (柯牧洲), vice chairman of the Taipei Association of Travel Agencies, said Chinese provincial-level travel authorities have been notified that they are required to cut the number of Taiwan-bound tourists by 95 percent during the period between Dec. 16 and Jan. 15.
MAC dismissed such claims as hyperbolic, saying a fall was possible, but 95% was absurd.

The interesting thing about the numbers to me is when you look at the right hand columns. These two columns show the movement in the numbers over the previous month. Note that prior to October of 2015, there were many months in which the numbers moved in tandem: if tourists from China rose, so did tourists from Hong Kong and Macao. Since October of 2015, the only month where the numbers moved in tandem was February, which boasts Chinese New Year. In all other months they've moved in opposite directions.

If might be a coincidence, but it almost looks like someone is quietly managing the numbers to keep them at a target ratio of between 450,000 and 500,000, permitting the Hong Kong numbers to quietly rise even as the Chinese numbers noisily fall. Alas, the sample is too small to show a definite trend, but it is suggestive.

But -- how long can such management be maintained...?
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