Poll Eye

Pingtung Aquarium.

A friend and astute observer of things Taiwan flipped me some poll info today from TISR and TVBS on the local elections....

TISR does a periodic Taiwan mood barometer. Ma Ying-jeou's dissatisfaction ratings are at 73.6% with Premier Jiang at 66% dissatisfaction. Jiang killed his presidential shot when he became Premier. The public view of the DPP is 31 (positive) to 35 (negative) but the negative fell from the last poll, while for the KMT the numbers are 20 and 54 and the negative is rising from the last poll.

TISR also gives numbers for Taipei in their October 1 poll, with Ko leading Lien 33-24. They also break down things demographically.

Those numbers look ugly for the KMT going forward. Support for Lien is strong in the age 50 and up cohorts, but falls off markedly as people get younger. The young want Ko. Education shows a similar pattern. While Lien does better with the less educated, for people with university education and up, Ko crushes Lien, 41.5 to 18.4. The last section shows the vote by camp affiliation. Blues support Lien at a surprisingly tepid rate, only 59.4%, while 85.7% of the greens support Ko. But among independents Ko has a nearly 4-1 margin over Lien, 30.0% to 8.4%. Those "independents" are probably all light blues in reality.

For Taichung, the TVBS poll of likely voter dated Sept 29 has Lin Jia-lung up 44-30, with Hu down 3 points from mid-July and Lin up 2 since then. Undecideds in that poll were 26%, meaning there is plenty of room for Hu to come storming back. Sure enough, the October Sept poll has Lin up only 32.2% to 29.8%. The pattern of voter demographics is broadly similar to that of Taipei, though not as severe, reflecting the fact that Hu is a much better candidate than the hapless Sean Lien. Hu does much better with younger voters than Sean Lien, but for education it's basically the same. The independents are somewhat stronger for Lin as well.

In Changhua TVBS has the KMT ahead 30-29 for the county chief, with 36% undecided. That poll is two weeks old. In the Yunlin County chief election the DPP is up 33-27 with 40% undecided, about a week ago.

ARGH, mea culpa: Your info on the Taichung polls is incorrect. The TISR one which showed Lin up three points was done on 9/24; the other poll you referenced which had Lin up by 14 was done from 9/25-9/29 by TVBS and was released today. You can see that poll here:

http://home.tvbs.com.tw/static/FILE_DB/PCH/201410/2014101409542394.pdf

The other numbers in that poll don't actually bode well for Hu, and his approval rating is falling and he is less liked than Lin.
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