Kinda comical to watch the web suddenly come alive with the realization that Hong Kong's fate will influence Taiwan's response to Beijing's annexation drive. Oxford Analytica says Hong Kong's fate will drive Taiwanese to resist China. Even Fox News notices. What do they think we've been doing over here? All of us watching Hong Kong from here have been saying this for years. On this blog, for example, post of October 28, 2012:
Taiwan's future?: Hong Kongers fed up with Chinese, lack of control over their own fate, identifying more strongly as Hong Kongers than ever before. Still look down on Taiwanese, though. Unfortunately the snobbishness of HKKers prevents them from forming solidarity with the pro-Taiwan side. But I suspect in a couple more years we may see some serious movement in that direction.Of course, Beijing's strategy is the same in both places, as I noted a while back -- the CEPA with Hong Kong, the ECFA with Taiwan. Both places were flooded with tourists. Most critically, Beijing has used pro-China billionaires to monopolize the media.
I suspect the ugliness has only begun. Beijing and the KMT are going to coordinate against pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Deployment of gangsters -- recall the attacks on media figures in Hong Kong, include Jimmy Lai himself. That hasn't started here, but I am very worried.
________________
Daily Links:
- J Michael at Thinking Taiwan: Synchronizing the Narratives: China, Taiwan, and the South China Sea
- Vietnamese police bust another of the Taiwanese scammer rings that are so prevalent across SE Asia.
- ROC = 11 dashed line. CCP = 9 dashed line. Get it right.
- The island-wide cycle network. Coming in 2015.
- Thinking Taiwan on a documentary about the Sunflowers.
- Store it away: You think the Senkakus are bad? You think China is coming for Okinawa? That is just the opening phase. Remember, the Mongols, the Ming, and the Qing all included Sakhalin in their respective empires. Just wait til the 50 centers remember that.
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!
Can we file this under "No ****, Sherlock"?
ReplyDeleteIs it wrong to be disappointed in the general punditry for acting like this is a new thing?
這件事由來已久啊！
I think CCP has lost its cool on HK. Beijing obviously has come across some serious internal issues. So it has to create a tough image on the outside.
ReplyDeleteNot sure that I want Taiwan to be internationally lowered down to the level of the equivalent of a Chinese Special Administrative Region (SAR), such as Hong Kong.
ReplyDeleteIf, from now on, Taiwan were to be paired in international press with Hong Kong as conjoined twins, it is not good for Taiwan at all. Not at all!
People will take the cue and say: If Hong Kong can be a Chinese SAR, so can Taiwan. Or, uninformed people will just assume that Taiwan is already a SAR, like Hong Kong. The is about PR, not about reality.
Imagine the headline: "Taiwan and Hong Kong stage China Spring 2.0."
PR, propaganda and perception do form international pressure and eventually become part of the force that dictates the course of reality. For example: "Taiwan is trouble maker" was a hypnotic sound-bite that's turned into "reality"; thus, the big "trouble maker" Chen Shui-bian is rotting in jail.
PR is the strength of the extremely rich CCP-KMT alliance. King Pu-tsun alone can easily turn the table and assign the "Chinese" label to those Sunflower activists.
Taiwan, as a non-entity, must be careful in wishing to play the Great Democrat. Not even the old-timer Europeans wish to play such a grandiose role.
The people in Hong Kong used to ridicule and mock Taiwan during Taiwan's long process of democratization. In my view, they have chosen to be on their own "high ground" in the past 30 years and should stay there and not "lower themselves" to look to the Taiwanese for help.
The Taiwanese better stick to minding their own fate, no need to waste their extremely limited resources and time on the lost cause that is Hong Kong.
I am afraid that the Western forces will jump to utilize the Taiwanese activists as tools for whichever ends the Westerners see fit; Taiwan's own fate to the spite.
More "discoveries"
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-firms-feel-less-welcome-in-china-1409624607
"A survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China released on Tuesday shows that 60% of companies feel less welcome in China than before, a sharp increase from 41% in the previous poll a year ago."
They were/will never be welcome.
Their money and technology were welcome.
Better late than never, I guess?
ReplyDeleteLol if taiwan becomes a SAR, Chen shui Bian will probably never ever get out of jail.
ReplyDeleteAnd Macau? I don't recall seeing anything about Macau referendum. The TVs were all over the all too important news of some celebs smoking pots.
ReplyDeleteThe snobbishness has toned down significantly. It has been more prevalent in my parents' generation (my own parents included), and the "Scholarism" student movement perfectly shows today's youth being in tune with Taiwan's political evolution and even asking for support from their friends in TW.
ReplyDeleteEven the older folk have been charmed by Taiwan and its people, possibly because of the deepening connections and somewhat shared challenges faced by both populations. I married my Taiwanese girlfriend in 2011, and we noticed a ton of HK tourists during our vacation in Taiwan.
Regarding China's strategy, I don't think they have one. As someone else said, some upper level Comrades have lost their cool and wrote a silly "White Paper." But notice how Chairman Xi doesn't ever say anything about HK. I honestly think he doesn't care because HK is generally well-run by itself. He has bigger fish to fry within mainland China. But the Chinese govt is huge; he can't stop other officials (for example, the Central Liaison head Zhang Xiaoming) and military figures from mouthing off about how "our approval is required for you to do stuff."