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Saturday, April 21, 2012

US-Taiwan relations

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Blogger switched me over to the new blogger look today. The new Google reader look was just awful, like watching an iceberg melt in a dull gray ocean against a flat, overcast sky. Then they decided to change Gmail to a similar look. Felt rather like a prisoner on death row with only one tiny overhead window in the cell. Now this week they've switched Blogger over to the same look, like an aged leper, painful to behold, and uglier than the first 500 sins committed by drunken soldiery plundering a captured city. I know it's a revolutionary idea, but why not simply give the user a choice of looks and styles? Imagine that.... Fortunately they are letting users revert to the easy to use old look.

Lots going on this week with US-Taiwan relations and East Asian foreign policy affairs. At the CSIS forum, American academics emphasized that Taiwan remains a vital interest of the US:
Answering a question from the audience, Gregson dismissed the idea of the US abandoning Taiwan to foster a better relationship with China.

“Abandon Taiwan? Absolutely not,” he said, adding that the US had vital interests in the region.
Gregson was speaking at a forum on “US Strategy in Asia and Taiwan’s Future” hosted by the US-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.

At a roundtable discussion, US economic adviser Kevin Nealer said the US would like to see Taiwan join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in its formative stage to help shape the regional economy.
“We think it’s in our interests. We think it’s in yours,” he said.

Abe Denmark, a senior project director for political and security affairs at the National Bureau of Asian Research, presented his views on the US’ new strategic guidance released by the US Department of Defense earlier this year.

Denmark said the US’ rebalancing strategy in Asia has three implications for Taiwan — although Taiwan is not specifically mentioned in the guidance.
I can't help but note that people are constantly talking about this "rebalancing" or "pivot" as if something is actually happening. Hello! Can anyone point to abundant concrete examples of this new policy? Troop and ship redeployments? Drawdown and termination of the stupidity and folly in Afghanistan? Increased investment in weapons systems needed to fight wars in far-off Asia? It looks for now like another of the endless examples of Obama trying to create reality through better rhetoric. Indeed, the US has "rebalanced" by increasing its outrageously stupid and criminal drone war in the Middle East. Future historians will be driven to opium consumption when they contemplate the monumental stupidity of US Middle East policy under Bush Lite and Obama.

J Michael Cole, tiger of many talents, left his spoor in The Diplomat with a sturdy piece on what the US needs to do if it wants to deter a clash over Taiwan -- make the island bristle with missiles:
Although MTCR play an important role in countering proliferation, their enforcement on Taiwan, a state that has no expansionist ambition whatsoever, while China continues to extend the range and precision and destructiveness of its own missile arsenal thanks to technology passed on by (or stolen from) Russia, makes no sense. In light of this, and to rectify the “balance of terror” in the Taiwan Strait – which under current conditions is one-way – the U.S. should within reason allow Taiwan, if not quietly assist it, to develop longer-range ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as artillery capable of acting in a counterforce role, and coastal suppression munitions, which is already found on some of Taiwan’s air-launched Harpoon missiles. Dispersing the deployment of such forces, as well as making them mobile through the use of transport erector launcher (TEL) vehicles rather than fixed bases, would also increase the deterrence value.

In return, Taiwan should commit to ensuring that whatever missile technology is acquired from the U.S. won’t be proliferated, while boosting efforts to ensure that critical information isn’t passed on to, or stolen by, China. While self-evident, Taiwan should also commit to a no-first-use policy, thus making its offensive capability a purely defensive one. One advantage for the U.S. in adopting such a strategy of assistance for Taiwan is that the political cost of doing so in terms of Washington’s relations with Beijing would likely be smaller than, say, in releasing F-16C/Ds or approving a submarine program. Another benefit in the long term is that the resultant deterrence capability for Taiwan would make war in the Strait less, rather than more, likely, as the cost for the PLA of launching an attack on Taiwan would have been increased. For Taiwan, embarking on such a program would prove far less straining on its finite military budgets than the acquisition of billion-dollar platforms of questionable utility in a modern Taiwan Strait context.
I've been saying this for years. It's time to give Taiwan what it needs to keep Chinese forces at bay until the cavalry arrive. Missiles are a cheap and useful deterrent.

Also, a couple of weeks ago a delegation of the US Republican Party visited Taipei. Here's a key part of their report:
American-Taiwan relationship issues raised by Taiwan officials during our meetings included:

1. Their desire to purchase F16 C/D aircraft as well as other sophisticated military hardware.

2. They would also like to receive Visa Waivers.

3. Concern that South Korea would soon receive tariff- free status, putting Taiwan at a commercial disadvantage.

At our meeting with AIT, the issue of American beef and pork imports was discussed. Taiwan does not allow American beef or pork to be imported because of their concern over a chemical feed additive, ractopamin, that we consider safe, so their market is off-limit to US farmers. AIT said that pork producers are a powerful political block in Taiwan.

Taiwan now has robust economic ties with mainland China. Many manufacturers have their products made in China. There are now hundreds of weekly flights between the two countries, with thousands of mainland Chinese visiting Taiwan. Many believe that with more mainlanders visiting Taiwan, they will learn about a free society and may have a better understanding of how democracy works. During the recent presidential election, millions of mainlanders intently followed the election on the internet.

As Taiwan seeks a closer relationship with mainland China and as their economic ties with China become intertwined and increasingly dependent, they are keenly aware of the precarious position they may be creating. One graphic statement by the Vice President of the KMT, the political party in power, illustrated this concern. He stated that Taiwan is “Dancing with a wolf…while holding a dagger at its side for protection …the dagger representing American strength and support.”
Curiously, the KMT continues to insist it wants F-16s -- remember when the party blocked them from reaching the floor of the legislature more than 60 times during the Chen era. They are just playing a game....

Just for fun: Lee Teng-hui this week said the Senkakus actually belong to Japan. ChinaSMACK picked up some of the reaction from the Chinese netizens. They've imbibed PRC propaganda so deeply that I've come to believe that a democratic China would be just as expanionist.
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Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

19 comments:

  1. I know it's a revolutionary idea, but why not simply give the user a choice of looks and styles?

    Gmail and Reader can both be changed via themes, so you can have any look or style you want. They are open systems, so anybody can develop themes for them.

    ReplyDelete
  2. J Michael Cole, tiger of many talents, left his spoor in The Diplomat with a sturdy piece on what the US needs to do if it wants to deter a clash over Taiwan -- make the island bristle with missiles:

    I'm not sure what Cole's talents are because they sure as hell aren't evident in the piece you excerpted. If Taiwan followed that advice, it'd start an East Asian arms race as well as increasing the chances of war particularly in the short term. As things stand now, the risk of conflict between Taiwan and China is at an all time low. A better approach is to continue with diplomacy and trade as has been happening for the past 4 years, which will continue to lessen the likelihood of conflict.

    G.

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  3. If Taiwan followed that advice, it'd start an East Asian arms race as well as increasing the chances of war particularly in the short term.

    The arms race is already here. How do you plan to hold off the Chinese when trade and diplomacy fail?

    ReplyDelete
  4. G:

    Protecting yourself starts an arms race? I suggest learning the difference between offense and defense.

    Yes, I kept my language simple-minded in the previous sentence -- in hopes that doing so will help you get it, because yours was an incredibly unaware comment. You really don’t understand psychology regarding bullies? Sorry, man, but it’s your responsibility to do that basic study on your own; no one here has any responsibility to inform you of common knowledge.

    Michael:

    You wrote: “I can't help but note that people are constantly talking about this "rebalancing" or "pivot" as if something is actually happening. Hello! Can anyone point to abundant concrete examples of this new policy?”

    I think that the rhetoric matters tremendously. It says, “We might use what we have – and beyond the drain of our dumb commitments, we feel we still have enough to stand up to chauvinistic aggression.”

    I agree that that strategic deployments would be helpful, but you do this stuff step-by-step. And when you know that China, through beyond-anyone’s-control dynamics, will soon enough provide plentiful concrete reasons for a next-step whenever, there’s no need to rush things.

    That said, yes to what you wrote: the US and most of the world have been at least two-decades-dumb to what PRC-government China is: a true threat to better human values, though possibly, ultimately (hopefully), a relatively inconsequential threat.

    Please let none be stupid and take me to mean by any of this that I think the US or any other country is an exemplar of anything approaching “best” human values.

    ReplyDelete
  5. How do you plan to hold off the Chinese when trade and diplomacy fail?

    There are no signs that that is likely, and the more the two sides talk and trade, the less likely failure becomes.

    It should be used as a global example of how to use diplomacy and trade as a method of defusing tensions.

    The people of Taiwan do not want war, and they will ensure (via the ballot box) that the leaders don't place the country at risk of it.

    G.

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  6. Hahaha. So basically, you offer me a faith statement with zero support from history, devoid of reference to the current political situation, and full of abstractions about trade and diplomacy, as if that were what is going on in the Strait.

    We had trade and diplomacy prior to the Ma Administration. The current attitude of Beijing is due to the fact that the Ma Administration shares its view that Taiwan should be annexed to China, not because of "trade and diplomacy."

    So really, when "trade and diplomacy" fail, you have no plan at all, just a kind of faith that it wont and the current situation will be preserved throughout eternity.

    Vorkosigan

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  7. the Ma Administration shares its view that Taiwan should be annexed to China,

    Ah no, they don't.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The current KMT government have a "three no's" policy, part of which states "No Unification". The president has said there'll be no discussions on unification with China during his term in office.

    That's the complete opposite of the annexation policy you suggest.

    G.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Gmail and Reader can both be changed via themes, so you can have any look or style you want. They are open systems, so anybody can develop themes for them.

    There are no themes for Reader.

    None of the current themes permits me to return to the old, easy to read look. The new look is stupid no matter what theme you pick.

    The worst part of the change is that it is entirely cosmetic. No new functionality hs been added AFAIK.

    Michael

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  10. Hahahaah. Trolls are soooooo cute.

    How's he trolling? He merely stated a fact, that the public position of the Ma Administration is against reunification.

    Of course, you can argue that the internal position is something else, but you have to use facts for that, not simply calling names. Where is the smoking gun memo that states the long-term goal of the KMT is reunification?

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  11. Of course, you can argue that the internal position is something else, but you have to use facts for that, not simply calling names. Where is the smoking gun memo that states the long-term goal of the KMT is reunification?

    It's been party policy to annex Taiwan to China since they retreated here. What earth do you live on?

    ReplyDelete
  12. How's he trolling? He merely stated a fact, that the public position of the Ma Administration is against reunification.

    The stated policy is "no talks" not no reunification.

    ReplyDelete
  13. It's been party policy to annex Taiwan to China since they retreated here. What earth do you live on?

    What policy? Where does the KMT say that they want Taiwan to be reunified with the current mainland government? The KMT says that it is the government of the Mainland and Taiwan, sure, but that doesn't imply that their explicit policy is to give Taiwan to the mainland government.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Where does the KMT say that they want Taiwan to be reunified with the current mainland government?

    Where did I say the KMT wanted to annex Taiwan to the current government of China? Please stop trolling!!

    Michael

    ReplyDelete
  15. If Taiwan followed that advice, it'd start an East Asian arms race as well as increasing the chances of war particularly in the short term.

    @Anon: It's not a question of Taiwan "following my advice" — Taiwan wants to do that and is frustrated by the US blocking those efforts. CSIST and the MND do not need my advice on this; this is what they want to do. And note, too, that mass-production of the Hsiung Feng IIE was launched not when the DPP was in power, but under Ma's KMT, again despite strong opposition from the US.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Please stop the name-calling. Being wrong and being a troll are not the same thing.

    G, the KMT has long had a policy of uniting with China. In that past they meant to take over China so that they could be the government but times have change and that approach is no longer as un-ridiculous as it was before. Yet the KMT still talks about unifying - just not with the current government of China. But that current government doesn't look like it is going anywhere. Still the KMT talks about unifying with China.

    Given the strength and determination of the Chinese government, this wishy-washy attitude of unifying with China but not with the current Chinese government sounds a bit like saying you favor letting the children pet the wild tigers but you don't favor letting the children get eaten. It's hard to believe that you really mean it.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Being wrong and being a troll are not the same thing.

    Thanks, Readin.

    ReplyDelete

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