Notes on Jeff Bader Talk

A friend who was present at Jeff Bader's recent talk in Taipei kindly sent me his notes. Here they are for your edification and analysis...

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PRC Hillary Clinton in Hanoi “need for land-based claims in the South China Sea” as a basis to demand them

This statement a result of recent Chinese belligerent policies so in Nov 2010 Dai Bingguo publishes article in the MOFA website, it relates to Deng’s peaceful maxim (stay calm and keep developing)

Japan anti-Americanism in case of US allies and especially in the case of countries depending on it in terms of security might work for them in the short-term, but it is in general counter-productive

Importance of Taiwan after spending 6 decades on building stability and security in Asia, the US simply can’t remove one of the major foundations of this block. “Taiwan abandonists” are like “children playing in the sand” – it definitely is not a school of thought

Core interests this paragraph (involving core interests) agreed with China in 2009 cost more time and effort than the rest of the document. The language of the discussion was constantly being shared by Jeff Bader with Taiwan to the extent that the Chinese objected and got angry.

In 2010 the PRC changed core interests to national interests. During the discussions neither did Dai Bingguo refer to the South China Sea as core interests, nor any of the PRC officials ever did

JB started looking into the South China Sea matter after those discussion above, which resulted in HC’s Hanoi statement.

Chinese had after the core interests became a publicly known term problems to just walk away from it, since it would imply SCS in not their core interest.

DPRK abandoning the nuclear weapon program would end NK’s starvation tomorrow. Only for them food is a strategic good. No reforms to expect, since the elite doesn’t need them. US and Chinese asked them to stop the missile launch, but they won’t listen and will proceed. Chinese hate this regime, it is a burden for them, but they don’t have much of a choice. Chinese internal discussion on Korean reforms started around 2007 and closed around 2009 when they gave up the Koreans.

Xi Jinping during his speech during the recent US visit he told an unscripted story, which was his own personal addition, his human quality to it

As every leader before him he would like to put a mark and distinguish his policy somehow – to show, Hi Jintao is no more in town. JB – China needs another Zhu Rongji

China’s assertiveness grew on a very fertile soil. Since 2008 a growing (Chinese) literature on US decline, even more pronounced in 2009 combined with its distraction on wars. Chinese experts assumed – China’s time has come, it should swing its weight. This assertiveness was not a political decision. Even Chinese security analysts were dismayed about this change (2010). PLA people say – we can’t cope with it, if we post anything contrary to prevailing nationalistic views – millions of furious blog postings “Yellow Sea is Chinese”, “US carriers out”. We can’t even cite Deng Xiao Ping’s peaceful maxim, Dai Bingguo’s Nov 2010 article to protect those army people and balance.

Even MOFA under pressure and issues statements – US can’t put carriers into our water;  they were intimidated by its own people and had to appease them.

Senkaku/Diaoytai incident was both Chinese and Japanese fault

“pivot” means – military spending cuts won’t affect the Pacific theatre

Bo Xilai US government can’t possibly say anything in this dispute and in no way influence the ongoing power change, it is no purge of the left

allegations of Bo and his family are extreme and absurd even for Chinese politics and environment. His behavior (in Chongqing) was very thuggish = his position unsustainable

Wukan events were equally interesting ≈ conciliatory approach still possible / has place in Beijing

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