Lots of numbers flying around. This poll from the (pan-Green) Taiwan Brain Trust has Tsai ahead of Ma 35.9-32.2, with Soong far behind at 13. Head to head, it still has her up 3 over Ma. A (pan-Blue) China Times Poll has Ma ahead of Tsai by four, 41-37, with Soong a distant 10. TVBS, rabidly pan-Blue, has Ma up 6 on Tsai 39-33, with Soong again at 9.
Meanwhile Ma continues to slide in the prediction market. He's at under 48 as of this writing, with Tsai flirting with 50.
Speaking of polls, AP picked up the tale of apparent KMT pressure on Global Views to end its polling since it showed Tsai up 4-6% on Ma. When interviewed, Tai Li-an, the director of its political polls, would not come right out and say it, but readers can connect the dots themselves.
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Daily Links:
- Fukushima: fission still ongoing.
- Taiwan cup cycling festival: home
- Bala Daily: Commence Firearms inspection!
- Hiking on Yangmingshan
- Confucius Institutes: corrupting US universities on a massive scale
- China is awesome and its ascendance inevitable, which is why its wealthy are setting up bolt-holes in other nations. Wait a second....
- Michael Stanton's excellent op-ed on the KMT legislator suing a journalist.
- Shelly Rigger discusses why Taiwan matters on a radio show.
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.
I really am loathe to cite any polls at the moment, and especially since Global Views shut down their center. I think the 'head to head' meme is about as accurate as is possible right now. Still, it makes me wonder how they conduct all these polls when the results swing from Tsai up by 4 to Ma up by 6 ...
ReplyDeleteLittle more growth on the "Market" then it's time to sell.
ReplyDeleteGeorge
Wow, Taipei Times put Tsai ahead and the China times put Ma ahead. That's really surprising. I'm sure you could plot their samples pretty accurately based on whether they live North or South of Taichung.
ReplyDeleteFukushima: fission still ongoing.
ReplyDeleteJapan says no new reaction at Fukushima plant
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/11/03/world/asia/japan-nuclear/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Poll results may differ due to many reasons among which are:
ReplyDeleteHow the questions are structured; region of the sampling; how accurately the answers are logged. Most of the time when I get surveys like these, I find it hard so select an answer that truly reflects my choice, simply because the true selection is conditional. Certainly wonder how often this happens to other people.
Another thought is that just through how questions are asked, one can play with the results allowing them to sway right up to election.
George
I'm always surprised at the quality of reporting in the two big English papers here. Something like a standard deviation might be a worthwhile, and standard, piece of information to include when reporting on polls.
ReplyDelete