The latest TVBS poll has the DPP's Su Tseng-chang and the KMT's Hau Lung-bin at 41% and 46%, respectively, for the year-end Taipei city election. It asks if tomorrow were the vote, who would you vote for?Hau 46%
Su 41%
Undecided 14%
Among self described independents, Su has a commanding 41-31 lead over Hau, with 28% uncommitted. Since in TVBS polls the uncommitted typically break DPP, it would appear that, at least according to TVBS, the DPP is doing quite well in Taipei at the moment (cue anything can happen disclaimer). The margin of error in the poll is 3.5%. Even within the realm of the poll itself, Su and Hau are basically neck and neck.
Similarly, the May 24 TVBS Poll for Xinbei city, The City Formerly Known As Taipei County, has the DPP's Tsai Ing-wen 44-43 over the KMT's Eric Chu. Among independents, Tsai has a commanding 42-30 lead, with 28% undecided. Since in TVBS polls the uncommitted typically break DPP, it would appear that, at least according to TVBS, the DPP is doing quite well in Taipei County/Xinbei at the moment (cue anything can happen disclaimer).
For a review of TVBS' consistent underestimation of the DPP vote, see this post.
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Is it really going to make a difference who wins?
ReplyDeleteIt has become clear that since the independence of the island, corruption has become an imminent part of the politics. Whether DPP or KMT will win, the money will always rule, especially in Taipei. And who wins there, usually gets to run 4 president as well.
Is it really going to make a difference who wins?
ReplyDeleteYes, I've taken notice over the years on how the DPP and the KMT have exactly the same policy on ECFA, Taiwan's status, government transparency, local faction influence, democracy, environmentalism, local development, citizenship, participation in international organizations, relationship with foreign nations, parks and recreation, local government efficiency....
*sigh*
But what happens if Su and Tsai both win? Who will run against Ma for the presidency? Hsieh again? Ma would almost certainly win again in that scenario.
ReplyDeleteLin Yi-hsiung is one possibility. He'd have the moral credibility to destroy Ma, but I have concerns about how he'd play with the younger crowd.
ReplyDeleteGood question though.
kocha asked:
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Is it really going to make a difference who wins?
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哎唷！ Another person who pretends that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the DPP are just the same! As Michael sarcastically points out above, they're quite different.
jeremy asked:
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But what happens if Su and Tsai both win? Who will run against Ma for the presidency?
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I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.
But, hey -- in addition to pro-China surveys like the ones mentioned here, talk of "what happens if Su and Tsai both win?" is making making me think that the previously-unimaginable is drifting towards the "possible" end of the spectrum. ;-)
Tim Maddog
OF course it would make a hell of difference! It would Taiwan towards direction of a Taiwan centric nation or one that is still controlled by chinese hegemons who wants to steer Taiwan towards China's embrace. As far as money politics is concerned, Pres Chen was duped by his wife and exercised poor judgement. However this is one person and not a reflection of the DPP as a party and as a whole. The KMT on the other used corruption, murder, deceit, and ties to the underworld since its inception while in China. That party is rotten to the core as we all know! Money rules everywhere and that includes the USA too; however as far as Taiwan is concerned, IT DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHO WINS!!! You dont think money rules in the CCP too??!! Ma's win over Hsieh was more due to a protest vote against Chen and his string of scandals. Hsieh would have run Taiwan much better than this jackass of a dog and horse.
ReplyDeleteQ: But what happens if Su and Tsai both win?
ReplyDeleteThat'd mean the KMT losing at least 4 of the 5 mayoral seats. Can any of us imagine the status quo of Ma/KMT when that happens? Sure, it would be tough for the DPP to find another candidate to run for presidency, but this puzzle would be based on a sweet blasting triumph.
And I would like that puzzle on any given day.
oh yes, well said Hans. I would have liked Su, but some new information is coming in and I may have to change my position on him. More on that tonight, hopefully.
ReplyDeleteMichael
Who cares if the DPP has the presidency - which seems like a practically decorative position - if the LY is still operated by the KMT?
ReplyDeleteMichael has blogged on the issue of local politics many times before, and it appears the relatively more powerful positions are at the local level. Whatever the national government chooses to enact can be supported or thwarted at local levels, so perhaps being the DPP mayors of the largest urban centers wouldn't be such a bad idea after all.