Ralph Jennings of Reuters is reporting that a Chinese Nationalist Party claimed that China had promised to stop its missile build up and then to reduce the number of missiles facing Taiwan:Last week, when KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung visited senior leaders in Beijing, including President Hu Jintao, he asked about the missiles and was told China would stop deploying them ahead of a gradual reduction, a party spokeswoman and local media said.
"It was a friendly reaction," said spokeswoman Chen Shu-jung. China did not set a timeline or estimate how many missiles might be removed. "They haven't done anything yet to follow up."
A reduction of missiles would cool a potential Asia-Pacific flashpoint and please the United States, which wants good relations with both sides and favours the status quo.
Right. So the news, which I found on the WaPo blog of Beijing reporter John Pomfret, also states that:
In another sign of improved relations, Chinese officials also want Taiwan to offer a proposal on its bid to participate in the World Health Organisation, according to local news reports.
Last week Chinese President Hu Jintao mentioned giving diplomatically isolated Taiwan more international space.
Some reality here: even if China slashes the missiles by half, that will merely return us to the position of the year 2000, when China had 600 or 700 missiles facing us -- and they will be much better missiles. Despite overwrought claims, the missiles can hardly destroy the island, but they are an important symbol of China's ultimate intentions. More deadly by far are the hundreds of aircraft facing Taiwan, and the military modernization program. I'd like to see the military threat actually terminated, not mere cosmetic changes in the number of missiles (which can easily be increased at any time simply by returning removed missiles to their sites). In any case, the savings on missiles will simply be invested in some other military threat.
Of course, this comes from a KMT party source, so we need to wait for more reliable source to confirm.
As for WHO entry, it would seem incredible if it granted Taiwan any degree of autonomy. Remember the cowardly and illegal secret MOU that the WHO signed with the PRC about Taiwan (from here):
In the course of our research on these areas outside the global surveillance system we obtained a copy of a memorandum of understanding between the WHO and the PRC that set out the circumstances in which contact with Taiwan could take place. While it was an honest attempt by the WHO to make things work, the guidance was totally inappropriate for dealing with an emergency. Permission had to be sought from the Chinese contact point in Geneva 5 weeks in advance of making contact. The PRC contact point could decide which Taiwanese experts should be contacted. If Taiwanese experts were invited to technical meetings an expert of similar status should be included. Taiwanese citizens were not permitted to attend WHO meetings as members of NGO delegations. Most bizarrely, because writing “Taiwan” on an envelope (necessary if it was to reach its destination) would imply recognition of its independence in the view of the PRC, all paper communications had to be faxed.That's our future in the WHO under the benevolence of China. And what name shall we join under?
[Taiwan]
What do you mean "what name will we join under"? Everyone knows that the island is called Chinese Taipei...
ReplyDeleteNo one is fooled that any concessions China gives Taiwan are not tied to eventual unification.
ReplyDeleteMany people on this blog seem to feel that this is all a done deal, and that all these meetings and deals are mere stage decorations for a show that's already been well rehearsed.
Perhaps it is, but aren't we all responding only to what we read and see? There are many other players involved in this elaborate power game whom we have yet to hear from, or whom we will never hear about--in China, in Taiwan and from other self-interested governments and organizations.
And there are many players here and abroad who are very interested in making sure China never controls Taiwan.
Clearly Ma knows this, and has no interest in being perceived as a puppet of the hardliners in his party.
We don't completely know who or what he's lined up to defend against these pro-China end-runners. He'll need some very cunning minds to work with him, and I think it's safe to say we may see him reaching across the party lines and over the borders to accomplish this.
This site softwar.net has a good collection PRC missile base photos. (Google Earth pics). In the root directory there are a few more interesting articles.
ReplyDeleteRe: the missiles, perhaps the build up is not really intended for Taiwan. What I mean is that there is a bigger fish to "fry" for China. i.e. the Russian Far East. (strategic oil supply)
"And what name shall we join under?"
ReplyDelete"Taiwan, Province of China"
duh.
The tougher question is whether the representatives of Taiwan, Province of China will be appointed solely by Taipei or need to be approved by Beijing.
I mean, we are talking about KMT that sent Wu to China to call his own president "Mr. Ma", and the "Mr. Ma" who gave the inauguration speech saying sovereignty isn't important.
Missiles can be temporarily moved.So what?Taiwan needs its own missile arsenal so that it can tell the arrogant PRC "If you invade us, say goodbye to Shanghai and Guangzhou".That is the language the arrogant Chinese will understand.
ReplyDeleteMarc,Some people may think eventual unification is unavoidable because Taiwan has yet to take a serious military approach to the PRC threat.Ask yourself how Israel would react if it faced invasion.How can a small state deter an invasion from a much larger one?There are ways if Taiwan is determined enough.But is it?
ReplyDeleteLOL. I'd be happy with Chinese Taipei if the DPP were running the show. But I think anon's suggestion that the reps will have to be vetted in Beijing is a concrete example of what I was alluding to in the post I made. Our participation is going to be entirely hollow.
ReplyDeleteMichael
And there are many players here and abroad who are very interested in making sure China never controls Taiwan.
ReplyDeleteClearly Ma knows this, and has no interest in being perceived as a puppet of the hardliners in his party.
We don't completely know who or what he's lined up to defend against these pro-China end-runners. He'll need some very cunning minds to work with him, and I think it's safe to say we may see him reaching across the party lines and over the borders to accomplish this.
Interesting reading, Marc. It will be fun to one day watch Beijing declare Ma a provocative radical for dragging his feet on coming in.
And when that happens, I'll be rooting for him.
Michael
There are many other players involved in this elaborate power game..
ReplyDelete@marc, imho, the biggest "player" is not even in Asia, its the banking scum on Wall St. and the corrupt FED who are destabilizing the dollar (and the world) with their fraudulent banking activities.
btw: Another investment bank, LEH, seems to be on extremely shaky ground these days. If it goes under the FED may not have the means to backstop it like they did (criminally) with BSC. This event could potentially cripple the US financial system due to the counter party swaps it has with other banks. (the same fear the banksters had with Bear Sterns).
Interestingly, there was an article in the WSJ that mentioned LEH is trying to get the S.Korea Development Bank to bail them out (VP, Kunho Cho, is a Korean guy) as a last resort.
Although the Olympics and the US elections are coming up, if something big happens on Wall St., it could throw a monkey wrench into life as we know it. (which is why, perhaps, the KMT is turning weasel before TSHTF). I will elaborate when I have more time.