More on the Chen Recall

David at jujuflop comments on the recent recall motion:

The recall motion has two hurdles to clear, and it would fail both of them. The first is to get 2/3rds of the Legislature supporting the motion. Party loyalty is strong in Taiwan, and even a currently unpopular figure like Chen can still rely on the support of all his DPP legislators in this - so there will only be a fraction over 50% who will vote for a recall.

The 2nd hurdle is a public referendum. Although this is less well reported, this would fail too even if the motion was passed in the legislature, and the reason has nothing to do with Chen’s (un)popularity. You can be pretty sure that more people would vote for him to be recalled than for him to stay, but the referendum also needs 50% of the electorate voting. Taking a leaf out of the KMTs ‘boycott the referendum’ strategy in 2004, the whole thing could be defeated by the DPP asking people to stay at home and not vote. At that point, only the KMT faithful and the ones with a really strong dislike of CSB would be voting - the apathetic, the ones pissed off with politicians in general, the ones who think this is all a political stunt, and the DPP faithful would be at home ensuring the whole thing fails.

A final point on this: anyone voting for a recall would be voting for Annette Lu for president - does anyone expect a huge turnout to vote for that?

David also argues that this might backfire on the KMT.

So, the whole thing is a gamble - it could pay dividends, but it could backfire. But here’s an important point: It is a gamble that Ma Ying-jeou has no need to play. Ma is so far ahead in the polls that all he has to do is keep smiling at the camera and he is virtually assured of legislative success in 2007, and presidential success in 2008.

At this point, it should be noted that the man leading the recall movement is James Soong, who is dragging along a rather less enthusiastic Ma Ying-jeou. As head of the PFP, Soong has nothing to lose - his party is slowly fading, and will be destroyed in the 2007 legislative elections. It seems that Ma is playing along because he doesn’t want to be seen as a weak leader (isn’t that ironic? Doing what Soong says so that he can appear in control and decisive). To paraphrase Tony Blair, Ma wants to be seen as being ‘Tough on CSB. Tough on the causes of CSB.’

When you consider this move as a gamble of a desperate man, and consider how Soong seems to have a 100% record in unintentionally helping the DPP with everything he does (thanks to Sun Bin for reminding me about this), my suspicion is that Ma Ying-jeou could end up regretting this recall motion far more than Chen Shui-bian.

I'm not sure that it will backfire as David argues is possible -- the public seems to be quite happy with the state of affairs where Chen takes the blame for the obstructionism of the KMT and its allies. The key bad timing issue here for the KMT is that it is quite clear the KMT has held up the flood control bill, and the recent flooding from the awesome rainy season we had this year has reminded the public of who is fouling up the works. Ma had to defend the party from just that accusation earlier this week.

Further, while in the US a beleaguered politician can often get a bounce in the polls when he appears to be an underdog, in Chinese society when you are down the world steps on you. Here, the victim is by definition a loser deserving of scorn. Too, in Chinese society everything is the Leader's fault, and Chen is the Leader. UPDATE: Finally, the possibility of backfire requires that the media turn on the Blues, which is not really in the cards, given their pro-Blue predelictions.

One wild card not yet played is the US government, which is very unhappy with the obstructionism of the KMT and its allies and needs a stable Taiwan government to fulfill its security role in East Asia. In addition to pushing Ma Ying-jeou on the recall motion, the PFP is also proving to be hardline on the arms deal from the US, refusing to let the KMT put the arms purchase on the legislative table. The result is that legislative speaker and KMT heavyweight Wang Jin-pyng was forced to cancel a recent trip to the US due to US displeasure over the string of broken KMT promises on the deal. The KMT is risking more than just its standing with the Taiwanese public here -- for many years the US government has been pro-KMT, and many officials within the US government remain privately so. The idea that the KMT is a stability-oriented party that the US ought to privately support is put at risk by this nonsense. Further, Ma Ying-jeou can hardly be seen abroad as the voice of moderation if he publicly supports this pointless recall motion. Sooner or later, if Ma keeps supporting this sort of fluff, even the dumbest foreigners are going to start seeing him for the ideologue he is.

And speaking of recalling Chen, anyone catch the comment of Lien Chan's son that if Chen doesn't step down, he's going to end up like Saddam Hussein? The constant flow of death threats from the Blues (Assassinate Ma?) indicate that what's driving this isn't reform ideals, but sheer insensate hatred of Chen and the DPP on the part of the mainlanders who are watching their hold on local society slowly being eroded.

UPDATE: The BBC reports:

It is the first time an attempt has been made to formally recall any Taiwanese president, the BBC's Caroline Gluck says.

The opposition is unlikely to achieve the majority it needs

The vote was followed by tears and chanting from opposition politicians, while members of the ruling party held banners against the motion.

Mr Chen now has a week to issue a statement in his defence, after which the legislature begins a week of debates on his future ahead of the final vote.

Chen has already said that he will not comment on the recall. The high road is the right road. Meanwhile the best quote is from the legislative whip and KMT Central Standing Committee member Tina Pan:

"We hope DPP legislators can wake up to the truth, push one of their own severely according to law in order to uphold justice and stand on the side of the people," Tina Pan of the Kuomintang told reporters.

ROFL.

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