Emoji Movie... snuck one past China? =updated=

A friend flipped me these stills from the US version of The Emoji Movie. Note that in the collection of flags displayed there is a PRC and an ROC flag.

Searching for more information on this led me to Josh Feola's piece explaining why it was much better received in China than in the US. To wit:

In fact, a common thread running through critical hatred of The Emoji Movie was the film’s egregious use of product placement — Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and other favorites are featured prominently in the plot of the US cut. They’re all gone in the Chinese version of the film, however — Facebook, Twitter and YouTube (which are all blocked in China, incidentally) are replaced with their Chinese equivalents, a major edit that filters down to the level of the film’s dialogue (“We have to escape to Baidu Netdisk Cloud” is said at one point).

I found the film on Tencent in its Chinese version. I didn't purchase access to Tencent so I can't be sure, but if you mouse over the status bar thumbnails will pop up, and sure enough, around 1:09 it seems the ROC flag was missed by the Chinese censors and is still present in the background. My friend captured this thumbnail, look to the left above the male emoji's head...

Striking a blow for Taiwan there...and to think I thought there was no reason to respect that movie...

UPDATE: Got some confirmation from China: the ROC clearly visible in the PRC version in the lower corner:

Nice work, Emoji movie....
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Links for a bad week of bronchitis

So there I was in Thailand enjoying another bike vacation, when bronchitis rudely interrupted it. I rushed back to Taiwan to enjoy Taiwan's cheap and effective health care. Three hours, one chest X-ray, five different meds, and about US$15 later, I was out of the hospital and off to rest and recuperate by binge watching bad TV. So enjoy some links while I recover my strength...

• Big story of the week. Vatican asks two bishops in China to step aside for Communist Party appointed candidates. NYT on the deal, from Ian Johnson. Cardinal Zen critical of Church decision, says it is selling the Church out. Catholic Herald on the story. This story will probably trigger a new round of fears that the Vatican will cut ties and switch to China.
• Frozen Garlic: Wayne says no. Another one of his excellent posts, this one on decision by Chiang family scion Wayne Chiang to not run for Taipei mayor
• Michal Thim: China's growing military activity around Taiwan triggers fears
• Southbound policy continues to succeed
• Ryan Hass on how Taiwan's soft power can be increased.
• Remember when they said the DPP would kill the economy? Joblessness falls, stock market up
• TMSC breaks ground on new 5mm fab in Taiwan, despite concerns over availability of electricity.
• How powerful KMTers abused the government pension program
• EPA actually does something: it kills large natural gas plant over environmental impact.
• Also huge this week: Strava heat maps can be used to identify military facilities and the individuals associated with them. Taiwan is the example.
• The latest This week in Taiwan Defense. Curated by Michal Thim and Kitsch Liao
• Illegal fishing driving rising Indonesian nationalism
• Foreigner imprisoned in Taiwan writes about his experiences making goods for famous brands in Taiwan
• KMT might have to forego year end bonus to party staff, since it is short of funds. Good.
• Avian flu, 5000 ducks culled
• Taiwan and China expert Jon Sullivan on Taiwan and the rejuvenation of China
• NYPOST: Asia is wondering if Trump will defend Taiwan
• CNN: How Trump is losing Asia to China
• AsiaTimes: Sight of China flag in Taiwan has people seeing red
• Brian H with a solid analysis of the KMT, the DPP, and irrigation associations. Will the DPP attempt to insert itself into the top of the patronage networks and run a clientelist state like the KMT? Or will genuine political change occur? My bet is on the former. In the Chen Administration the DPP tried but failed to replace the KMT at the top of these associations. Now with control of the legislature, it simply has to pass laws.
• Poll says DPP approval approaching low not far from KMT. As always, polls from this organization should be served with large grain of NaCl
• The rise of China is decimating southeast Asian animal life. China is pillaging SE Asia. But it won't end there. Someday the reapers will move to Africa and South America. 
• Piece at Taiwan Sentinel discusses the meaning of Tsai's opinion polls
• Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism in Taiwan
• Hilariously awful piece in Taiwan News argues that the CKS memorial should be retained
• Social workers take the brunt of the new labor laws
• Thrill of vacation in Taiwan
• How to study Mandarin in Taiwan
• Industrial production up for the eighth month in Taiwan.
• DPP withdraws motions to stall appointment of KMTer to National Taiwan University president
• Graduate student responds to claim that this is a golden age for Taiwan studies
• KMT stalwart Huang Min-hui announces candidacy for 2018 Chiayi city mayors race
• ROUTES MESS: Taiwan government cancels planned flights from China in retaliation for China's sudden announcement of new flight route over the Strait. NYTIMES report. New flight routes trigger China invasion fears
• Government calls for WHA observer status
• Current Taipei Mayor Ko plans to run again without fundraising.
• Taiwan government says it is short 14,000 military men.
• Policeman indicted in killing Vietnamese workers in Taiwan
• NEW SITE: Taiwan Gazette opens the 31st, will have translations of articles in Chinese from Taiwan papers

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Time off

Vacation time. Fighting flu, and then going on vacation. I'll be back in a few weeks.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Reuters does a 180

Perched.

For some time now I've been documenting how Reuters has been outpacing Xinhua in its race to present Beijing's point of view (example). Suddenly, night has turned into day: Reuters is describing reality. Aside from the silly "Amid heightened tensions" trope (all things between Taiwan and China happen amid heightened tensions, which demeans the moments when things really are tense), the presentation was pretty damn good... consider:

Beijing has taken an increasingly hostile stance toward Taiwan since the election two years ago of President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.

Reuters actually forthrightly describes Beijing's decisions as the problem, and never presents Beijing as the passive recipient of Taiwan's decisions. Then the closing, on China's decision to open a new air route down the Strait...

Taiwan said on Friday the new flight path was so close to the middle line of the Taiwan Strait that it would affect Taiwan air force exercises and other flight operations.

“The planes can come very close to each other,” an official added, referring to other connecting routes that China has opened and where Taiwan civilian flights already operate.

“It becomes a very dangerous situation if we do not consult with each other.”

China, which considers Taiwan a wayward province, snapped official communication with its government after Tsai took office.

Unlike many previous articles, Reuters takes the time to offer words and points of view from Taiwan. And note the final sentence, which again blames Beijing for cutting off communication since Tsai took office.
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Blast from the Past: Ad for Taiwan's first dairy farm =UPDATED=

This ad for Taiwan's first dairy farm, 柊牧場, dates from 1899. A Japanese man who said his relatives had run it posted it to Facebook, where it was shared around by the awesome Katy Hui-wen Hung, who I need to get up and interview. She said that the farm originally stood on Xinyi Road near what is now the Da-an MRT (Xinyi Rd and Yongkang St, according to this). This site here says it was moved in 1902 to the Xinyi Road location since the land for the ranch was to become Taipei Park. According to this article, it was established in 1896 to supply Japanese military servicemen in Taiwan, especially the wounded in hospital. By 1899 it had six dairy cows and produced 6-7 liters of milk a day (source). After the second world war it was folded into Taiwan's government livestock company.

Here is another ad:

This ad appears to date from the 1920s, from before 1923. The characters for "cooperative association" and "cooperatively sold" (I think, corrections welcome) appear on the left side in small font. In 1923 the ranch left the dairy cooperative founded in 1919 and sold independently, according to the article above.

UPDATE: My friend Drew remarked on Facebook:

Actually, this was a pretty big deal back then and it is really emblematic of the impact Meiji era values in concepts of modernity had on Taiwanese cultural life. 

This first dairy was established at the dawn of modern dairy farming with the use of pasteurization for milk beginning only in 1886. This paved the way for further mechanization of the dairy process capped by the use of stainless steel containers and wide spread use of refrigeration in the early 1900s.

Dairy farming and sanitary dairy products symbolized values of “advancement” that the Japanese sought to emulate in American and European countries. It is amazing that they would establish a dairy so early in Taiwan and speaks volumes of the relationship between Japan and their Taiwanese colony.

Katy posted this pic of a bottle from the dairy.
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The Marriott Mess

A small lake in Taitung.

The news broke like a storm across Taiwan groups: Marriott had kow-towed after sending around a survey to its global rewards club...:

The survey sent to customers asked in which country they lived and gave options including Tibet, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

"We absolutely will not support any separatist organization that will undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," said the Marriott statement. "We apologize for any act that may give rise to misunderstandings."

Beijing is intensely sensitive about the status of Taiwan, the self-ruled island the communist mainland claims as part of its territory, and of Tibet.

The language was obviously dictated by Beijing. Beijing also followed up by putting pressure on other corporations to change their language. More will follow; this is only part of a long game. Marriott also had to fire an employee who clicked "like" on a article about Tibetan independence. China is putting pressure on every institution of world society: government, corporations, educational institutions (see Jon Sullivan's most recent piece on universities here). Eventually it will get around to the legal frameworks like GATT and WTO and the financial frameworks.

Someone remarked on Twitter that the hegemon reproduces in its external environment the politics of its domestic environment. The Chinese-run world is going to be much uglier than even the US-run world. I expect that one of the few delights of my declining years is going to listen to all those idiots who hated on the US nostalgically extolling the virtues of the US-based order...

Many Taiwan supporters were incensed at Marriott's decision. But let's remember that Marriott has over 100 hotels in China. My friend Michal Thim pointed out that Marriott has no choice, because it has thousands of employees that Beijing's security forces can hold hostage for its good behavior: it can casually destroy many lives to punish Marriott. Certainly this would send a message to the foreign business community in China. It would also destroy many lives. What would you choose?
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Daily Links:

• Jenna with a hilarious send up of the listicle habits of Taiwan News and other publications that write on Taiwan
• Piece for the Taiwan Sentinel writes that people are now worried that China is showing emerging signs of being an ethnonationalist power. Quite true: people have been saying that for decades.
• Another 100 Taiwanese and Chinese arrested for fraud in Phils.
• Taiwan man sanctioned for oil sales to N Korea.
• Aging academic workforce is problem for Taiwan and Japan. The real problem is the reported deteriorating work conditions. There are plenty of PHDs in Taiwan, we overproduce them. So replacing faculty won't be a problem. 
• Microsoft opens AI institute in Taiwan
• KMT worship of Chiang Ching-kuo continues on the 30th anniversary of his death. Call me when the killers of Lin Yi-hsiung's family are brought to justice. 
• This thread on Twitter is about an academic presenting on brawls in Taiwan's legislature. Stuff we all know from living here, but a useful round up. 
• Washington Post publishes Chinese propaganda as a paid ad. Note that the "this is a paid ad" notification doesn't tell you who paid for the ad. It is sick that papers in democracies forward this garbage. 
• Cole on why China expanded the air route in the Taiwan Strait right now, breaking its agreement with Taiwan.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

The Use of Religion in China's Annexation Drive

Store near Guguan

BBC Monitoring forwarded a translation of a China owned Hong Kong paper's commentary on independence and Taiwan...

By BBC Monitoring

On 30 December 2017, China-owned Hong Kong daily Ta Kung Pao ran an article by commentator Chin Lin-yuan, regarding Taiwan's attempt to "promote cultural independence" for the island.

....

According to the author, economy, trade and culture play a vital part in maintaining cross-Strait ties. Over the years, cross-Strait economic and trade interactions have been "smooth and successful." Today, great efforts should be made to enhance cross-Strait cultural exchange, the author said, adding that more TV series and films with themes that people in both the mainland and Taiwan can relate to, "especially" the country's reunification, can be produced to attract Taiwanese viewers. Most importantly, "we should make greater efforts to promote cross-Strait religious exchange." The author said Buddhism is the most popular religion in Taiwan. The Buddhist schools of the mainland and Taiwan share the same root. Many eminent monks in Taiwan are disciples of monks who migrated from the mainland to Taiwan in the past. Exchange between Buddhists on both sides of the Strait can help promote Chinese culture and tradition, the author added.

CREDIT: Ta Kung Pao, Hong Kong, in Chinese (written) 1000 gmt 8 Jan 18
Word count: 410
Ta Kung Pao, Hong Kong, in Chinese (written) 1000 gmt 8 Jan 18/BBC Monitoring/© BBC
https://search.proquest.com/docview/1985540600

I've long commented on the tight relationship between religion and cross-strait annexation politics.The Mazu cult remains a key nexus of organized crime, religion, and annexation politics, as I have commented and also here. Of course Buddhism is a major arena of annexation politics, as I observed here on an Ian Johnson piece. Taoist deities underwent the same transformation, as Johnson, who has written a major work on religion in modern China, noted in a WSJ piece several years ago.

It is good to see this point made openly in the Chinese media....
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Daily Links:

• Piece from  Shepard Media is strange. On the one hand, it wants to argue that the US won't intervene in a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan. On the other, it gives a load of cogent geostrategic reasons why the US should, as a friend pointed out to me. It leaves out quite a bit -- there's no direct reference to Japan's involvement in Taiwan's defense, for example, and Japan is treated simply as a passive recipient of US and Chinese decisions. And for straight out crapshit hilarity, nothing beats the stupidity of the last couple of paragraphs.
• SCMP argues Xi needs to take Taiwan ASAP.  
• Proposed White House trade crackdown on China.... guys, this could really hurt Taiwan. Probably Japan as well, and any other country that supplies high end materials, parts, and machinery to China. 
• Jeff Jacoby in the Boston Globe: Taiwan isn't China and Taiwanese aren't Chinese
• Exports up for 15th straight month.
• Jenna on traveling in Taiwan as a woman
• Ed Royce, longtime Taiwan supporter, to retire from Congress
• From Al Jaz: Taiwan's Lost Islamic traditions.
• Longtime Taiwan supporter Ed Royce to retire from Congress
• Center for American Progress: Reform of Taiwan's Fishing Fleet necessary. The behavior of Taiwan's fishermen is a major negative for Taiwan's image. And it is evil and destructive as  well.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

LinkZ for a Rainy Monday

Caoling from above

This weather is dreary... but the commentary isn't.

Before we get on to the serious stuff, AmCham, whose work is usually stellar, published this strange piece on eating in "Taiwan": From Night Market Treats to Food Court Fine Dining. It describes:

The evolution of Taiwan’s mass market eating establishments has speeded up over the past decade to meet developing tastes and higher expectations.

It says Taiwan, but describes only Taipei. *sigh*

It is chock full of Celestial Dragon Kingdom disdain for and ignorance of the rest of Taiwan disguised as modernity:

In recent years the long and colorful tradition of food vendors setting up roadside stalls has become less common, as hygiene requirements and city ordinances tighten up. Taking its place is a multitude of food courts at MRT stops, department stores, shopping malls, airports, hospitals, and universities – even in one of the world’s tallest buildings, Taipei 101.

There seems to be a whole segment of Taipei writers for whom "Taiwan" ends at the toll booth on Highway 1 out of Taipei just before the Linkou exit. The writer nods with approval at one of the chief horrors of modernity: the corporatization, discipline, and control of space to form alienated, sterile, and homogenized consumption experiences that completely lack any authentic connection to the world around them:

As has been the case elsewhere, however, changing demographics led to the need for the 101 food court to be renovated in 2012 in order to meet higher consumer expectations. Chen describes the new look as “seriously upmarket, a more stylish space for a high-end shopping mall.” He notes that to “complement the luxury retail space, we wanted an excellent quality food space, with LED lighting, TV wall panels, expansive chandeliers, and improved seating to produce a lounge-effect style.”

Just glad I live in the Real Taiwan where I can still scoot down the hill and get decent food from local vendors. Because when I buy from a vendor I can watch the food being prepared, and I can develop an actual human relationship with the vendor whose food will have its own unique variation from the mean. The idea that food court restaurant kitchens that you can't see are hygienic is a droll little fantasy....

On to the more serious stuff....

Ian Easton on Defusing the Cross Strait time bomb. Don't miss it.

Ed Wong, formerly here in Taiwan for a year or so, moved on to China to report for the New York Times. He released his thoughts on leaving China in a piece for the NYT. It is getting passed around everywhere, hailed as strong, insightful. and analytical. It is all those things. For example:

From trade to the internet, from higher education to Hollywood, China is shaping the world in ways that people have only begun to grasp. Yet the emerging imperium is more a result of the Communist Party’s exercise of hard power, including economic coercion, than the product of a gravitational pull of Chinese ideas or contemporary culture.

Of the global powers that dominated the 19th century, China alone is a rejuvenated empire. The Communist Party commands a vast territory that the ethnic-Manchu rulers of the Qing dynasty cobbled together through war and diplomacy. And the dominion could grow: China is using its military to test potential control of disputed borderlands from the South China Sea to the Himalayas, while firing up nationalism at home. Once again, states around the world pay homage to the court, as in 2015 during a huge military parade.

Yup, you read that right. Wong's analysis consists of commentary that is maybe sixty years old among us on the pro-Taiwan side. Not to take anything away from Wong, he is a keen observer and masterful writer (and a very kind man). It is good to see this understanding of China as evolving imperium rapidly becoming mainstream, even cited with approval. The terrifying thing is that it took so long... the China Explainer brigade isn't going to be well treated by history. But at least they made a lot of money, right? And that's the important thing...

Lin Fei-fan of the Sunflowers has released an open letter on Facebook objecting to the labor law amendments. Brian H at New Bloom has been live-tweeting the labor protests in Taipei. Follow him on Twitter at https://twitter.com/newbloommag.
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Daily Links:

• No kidding: at a conference on tech security USBs made in China to promote Taiwan's cybersecurity campaign were passed out as souvenir gifts. Of course they contained malware aimed at collecting information. Dumb. as. rocks. When are people going to realize that all tech from China is a poisoned chalice? 
• Commonwealth poll shows deep dissatisfaction with Tsai and deep concern with air pollution... in the South. LOL. Air pollution attitude hasn't been much surveyed in Taiwan, sadly, so there doesn't seem to be a lot of helpful historical data. 
• Poll shows that majority of public supports labor laws. Can't see how trustworthy it is, since it mirrors the DPP's own poll but contradicts a government labor bureau poll showing that the majority does not approve.
• China pushing hard with its salami slicing. Four Chinese paramilitary vessels entered Senkaku waters this week.

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

The Best Things to Do in Taiwan in 2018

Lanhou Bed and Breakfast in Laiji below Alishan

Taiwan News lists The best things to do in Taiwan in 2018: 7 standout events to look forward to in Taiwan in 2018. These include watching the ship burning in Donggang, swimming Sun Moon Lake, getting bombarded by fireworks in Yenshui, and similar. So I thought I'd compile a list of my own.

1. Stay in a bed and breakfast in an aboriginal village. There are many such wonderful places to stay in the hills and mountains around Taiwan, including Smangus, Chimei, Laiji (pic above), and Mudan. Most of them offer hikes and other get back to nature options, and excellent food. Put that on your list.

2. Visit Lanyu (Orchid Island). This wonderful island is a great favorite of many long-term expats. Should be high on your list of things to do in 2018.

3. Hike Keelung. Keelung sits in a crater which on one side has collapsed, forming the harbor. The ridges are filled with excellent views of the city and many old military works built by the three colonial regimes, with a few left over from the siege of the city during the Sino-French War. The city itself, still very traditional, offers wonderful photo ops.

4. Visit Little Burma in Taipei. Little Burma is located on Huaxin Street in Taipei near the Nanshijiao MRT Station. Great food, desserts, and the famous coffee make a great afternoon trip. Go on a Saturday when the restaurants are filled with people chatting, the atmosphere is quite different from elsewhere in Taipei.

5. Explore the back roads of Kenting (and here too). Most people who go to Kenting hang out at the beach, but Kenting's real treasures are far away from the beach. The hilly back roads are great for scooter rental or bike riding, offering stunning views of mountains and sea, aboriginal villages, and tastes of the complex history of the Kenting peninsula.

6. Ride or scooter the Rift Valley side roads. The small roads like the Zhuofu Industry Road on the west side of the Rift, the 193, and the 197 provide excellent quiet and scenic alternatives to the heavily trafficked 9.

7. Visit the east side of Pingtung County. Pingtung's many wonderful places are often neglected because everyone is rushing to Taitung or Kenting. But places like Wanluan with its mix of religons and cultures, the aboriginal village of Duona, the 24 out to Wutai with its staggering views and long climb up through Sandimen are well worth a visit. Many nearby aboriginal villages offer interesting places to stay. The 185 that runs north-south from Gaosu to Fangliao is an enjoyable and largely flat ride, perfect for scootering or biking.

8. Something you haven't done yet. Because I know that list is both long, and long in the tooth.
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New Week in Taiwan Defense from Taiwan Perspective

Longtime Taiwan observer Michal Thim has started the "Week in Taiwan Defense" roundup at Taiwan Perspective...

Week in Taiwan Defense is a weekly overview of events relevant to Taiwan defense: interesting articles, commentary, and papers. Occasionally introducing older articles on ICWMI (in-case-we-missed-it) basis.

Focus on Taiwan’s defense development, People’s Liberation Army activity in the region, U.S.-Taiwan defense relations, and other political developments with relevance to Taiwan and its defense needs.

A useful addition!
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When evolution leaves you behind.... + LINKZ

A harvest of mountain peas.

The 'living fossil' coelacanth fish left behind by evolution

A deep-sea fish which became known as a “living fossil” has not changed in appearance since before the time of the dinosaurs...(here)

John Copper, the longtime pro-KMT writer, was on at CPI this week with a hilariously awful piece a longtime observer described as "80% Wikipedia, 20% hit piece". But really it was 100% hit piece on the Tsai Administration in Copper's usual pro-KMT style.

What a failure. He bet everything on support of authoritarianism, and then, when history passed him by, he never changed. A living fossil catapulted from the 1970s into the 21st century, Copper still faithfully regurgitates KMT talking points as if they were insights and not propaganda. It would be sad, except a writer from a democracy who supports an authoritarian party is deserving only of contempt.

Copper says:

At the close of World War II and Taiwan’s return to China according to wartime agreements, Taiwan acquired a political party system: Chiang Kai-shek brought the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang or KMT) to Taiwan along with two smaller parties. Thus Taiwan’s party system was technically a multipolar one, but in reality, it was a one-party structure. There was no party competition and contentious issues were worked out via internal KMT factions or (usually) by strong leadership.

Haha. Taiwan was never "returned to China" and Copper knows that full well. Sad. Note the term "strong leadership". Copper cannot bring himself to say "authoritarian leadership". Instead he assigns it a positive gloss, "strong".

Later that decade there appeared more independents. Behind Chiang Kai-shek’s impressive efforts to promote economic development (soon called miracle growth) grew a middle class that delivered the impetus for democratization.

Haha. As anyone who has read Ho's Economic Development of Taiwan 1860-1970 or Jacoby's US Aid  to Taiwan knows, Chiang actively fought sensible policies to promote growth, instead focusing the government budget on the military. It was a group of technocrats, US aid technicians, and small and medium sized business owners who drove the Taiwan Miracle, without help from, and often with the active opposition of, the KMT and Chiang.

In 1975, Chiang Kai-shek died and his son Chiang Ching-kuo, fondly known as CCK, became Taiwan’s leader. He saw the need for democratization and in 1980 arranged an open and competitive election. Independent candidates campaigned with enthusiasm using their newly gained freedom to do so. They worked together and promoted certain reforms somewhat as a political party might do.

As I was writing the draft of this last night, legislators and others were protesting the DPP's proposed changes to the labor law. The DPP is a left-wing party only if you are squinting through Mussolini's eyes. In the real world, it is a center-right neoliberal nationalist party run by an LSE-educated technocrat. I mean seriously... and the idea that the younger Chiang saw the need for democratization is laughable. The Dec 10 attacks on peaceful demonstrators and arrests of the Kaohsiung 8 had just occurred, torture and murder was going on in the prisons, the KMT was suppressing democracy every way it could... none of that appears in Copper's piece. Age has not mellowed his fierce hatred of the democracy parties, and his staunch support of the KMT.

I don't know why anyone would write such a fantasy, or publish it. The rest consists of the same set of longtime KMT talking points, I won't bother with it. Sad.

Very encouraging to see this Washington Post piece from John Pomfret on Taiwan's defense. It seems at last to have penetrated that Taiwan is fairly well defended.

However, in recent years, U.S. analysts and officials, bucking the view that China’s rise will never end, have begun to question the assumption that China is going to absorb the island. Two recent scholarly articles are indicative of this new trend. Both Denny Roy , a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, and Michael Beckley, a professor of political science at Tufts University, doubt whether China has the capacity and even the will to take over Taiwan.

Lauren Dickey smartly pointed out on Twitter that what these pieces need to do is consider aspects of Taiwan's defense other than just buying more weapons. But pieces on Taiwan's defense generally follow the Establishment line that what Taiwan needs is more purchases of US weapons. Commentators need to consider, for example, that the US could play a role in enhancing defense cooperation with SE Asian nations and Japan, and also encourage further links between Taiwan and India.

China simply flat out broke an agreement with Taiwan about airline routes in the Strait.

China unilaterally created the routes in 2015 on the grounds that they would be used to alleviate flight congestion on its A470 route.

Both sides then reached an agreement in 2015 following negotiations between civil aviation officials that only southbound flights would be permitted on route M503 and that the three extension routes would not be activated until after the negotiations had been completed, Chang said.

However, China simultaneously activated the three extension routes and allowed northbound flights to operate on the M503 route yesterday morning without negotiating with Taipei in advance, Chang said.

China treats all agreements this way....

Finally, these last couple of weeks saw the building case against several New Party members for cooperating with a Chinese spy and taking money from China to use to influence Taiwan. Half a million US according to media reports. Brian H comments.The amount of money is tiny.

Taiwan gov't once again vows to move illegal factories off farmland. Hahahaha. Sounds awesome except....

Illegal factories set up on Taiwan's farmland after May 20, 2016 that could cause pollution must be relocated to industrial zones, Vice Interior Minister Hua Ching-chun said Thursday.

...so factories from before that date are left unmolested....
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Daily Links:

• Taiwan: Down but not out in AI
• Commonwealth: How Cheap Must Chinese Workers Get?
• The destructive effect of China on the world's scholarly environment, from cheating on research to its political pressure, was predicted by many of my friends and myself, privately, over a decade ago. Few of us said anything in public, for obvious reasons. Meanwhile institutions in Western nations took the cash... now it's too late. How can scholars tackle China pressure? I am afraid it isn't going to happen, because doing it would require things that westerners are loathe to do. Inside Higher Ed on same.
• Taiwan court rejects lesbian marriage on the grounds that relevant legal framework does not exist.
• Michal Thim with another sturdy piece on China-US-Taiwan relations under Trump
• Taiwan is ready to be partner in US Indo-Pacific moves.
• Wife of current Hualien mayor Fu Kun-chi is selected as KMT candidate for Hualien County magistrate for 2018. Yes, that's right. The KMT has selected the wife of someone they "kicked out" of the KMT for being too corrupt as their County Magistrate candidate. Her connections to the top are shown by the fact that she is currently an at-large legislator. The KMT hasn't reformed one bit, still the same candidates, selection processes, and people...
• Filipino voyagers recreate ancient South China Sea voyages. With obvious modern political import.
• Longtime Taiwan supporter Ros-Lehtinen may lose House seat in Florida

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Then and Now: the Chosui River bridge UPDATED

The top photo was uploaded by National Historic Monuments of Taiwan, which is a great Facebook group for old Taiwan images. The top picture shows buses crossing the Zhoushui River (濁水溪) between Yunlin and Changhua counties during the Japanese era. The shot had to be taken upriver because downriver the land is flat and farmed. This spot on the 21 south of Shuili appears to be the location of that bridge, which I think is now the Longshen Bridge on the 21. Image from Google. Would welcome corrections if anyone knows for sure.

UPDATE: Nope, I was totally wrong. Great comment below

The bridge is located between today's Yilan and Hualien. 

The name "Lö-Tsui (濁水)" (Muddy Waters) ["Zhuo-sh(u)ei" in Today's Mandarin] was often used in pioneer-Taiwan to name a river.

Due to Taiwan's general geographic features with very high mountains meeting the ocean almost outright face-to-face, water in rivers runs fast and is often muddy. There are a lot of "Lö-Tsui" ["Zhuo-Shuei"] throughout Taiwan. The most famous "Lö-Tsui (濁水)" is of course the one located between Yunlin and Changhua that you refer to.

The picture was a suspended bridge over a "Large Lö-Tsui Kau" (大濁水溝)[in Today's Mandarin, it's transcribed as "大濁水溪"]. There is a "Small Lö-Tsui Kau". It means that the locals differentiated two rivers as "Large Muddy Waters" and "Small Muddy Waters".

The KMT regime came after WWII and named this river as "Her-Ping River" (和平溪).

See Wikipedia entry (in Traditional Chinese) of this river:
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E5%92%8C%E5%B9%B3%E6%BA%AA

See another picture of this bridge (Wikipedia):

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Taiwan_formosa_vintage_history_other_places_bridges_suspension_taipics045.jpg

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Links and comments for the New Year

Mountain gardens.

I'd say good-bye and good-riddance to 2017, but 2018 looks like it is going to be worse in every way. For one thing, 2017 revealed that Trump is China's greatest victory, a vast strategic opportunity for Beijing. 2018 is already shaping up to very ugly out here, with the incompetence of the Trump Administration following the dilatory and pro-China policies of the Obama and later Bush Administrations. We've had over a decade of drift out here effectively ceding Asia to the Chinese, as China rockets up its power and influence. But luckily we have invested trillions making Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Africa safe for Chinese investment... future historians will marvel at the suicidal stupidity of American foreign policy in the early 21st century....

Fortunately US policy toward Taiwan is likely to remain unchanged, as former AIT  head Steve Young contends in the Taipei Times. Tsai herself took the right view, correctly charging China's military expansion with destabilizing the region. Constantly positioning China as the problem is the right move for the government to take....

According to the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (FocusTw)....

Tsai's approval rating was 35.9 percent at year's end, down 2.7 percentage points from the 38.6 percent support she received in November, the survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found.

The survey attributed this to the President's response to the recent spate of Chinese military incursions. It made me laugh however -- note that when Tsai's ratings fell hit pieces comparing Tsai to Trump were immediately produced by Sheryn Lee at EastAsiaForum (a very pro-China site that occasionally offers good stuff) and in July by Ralph Jennings for the LATimes (and inevitably by Lawrence Chung at SCMP). But when Tsai's ratings rose after she appointed William Lai premier, and remained up (for months, no less), there was no reporting of that. That's right, if you are writing about Tsai's ratings only when they are falling, then you are writing hit pieces, and are a propagandist, not a journalist.

But her poll numbers fell? Looking forward to another round of ZOMG TSAI GIVES TAIWAN THE SADZ in the int'l media. *sigh*.....

The DPP and its government are fighting over polls about its labor law changes.

The results of a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) poll released on Saturday, which found that 59.7 percent of the public was in favor of proposed amendments to the Labor Standards Act (勞動基準法), clashed with poll results released by the Ministry of Labor on Friday, which showed that 58.4 percent did not support the proposals.

I tend to believe the Min. of Labor on this one, though the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation did find that that the public in general approves of the labor law amendments (here) 53-31.

After so many years of toxic air, suddenly it is a serious political issue (my recent post). Mayor Ko weighed in this week to say that banning fireworks really doesn't address the issue, which is systemic. This review article observes of air pollution:

Ambient air pollution is one of the biggest environmental threats to human health and is estimated to contribute to 2·9 million annual deaths globally,1 of which more than 85% occur in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).2 Particulate matter (PM), a heterogeneous mixture of suspended solid and liquid particles from different sources and varying in size, mass, and chemical composition, is often acknowledged as the most damaging element of ambient air pollution to human health, particularly PM2·5 (PM with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2·5 μm) with its ability to penetrate deeply into the human respiratory and circulatory systems and cause direct localised and systemic damage. Both short-term (days) and long-term (years) exposure to PM has been independently associated with increased risks for mortality and morbidity, particularly cardiorespiratory outcomes. Additionally, unlike other environmental risk factors, PM has no observable threshold, and adverse health outcomes have been recorded at levels lower than the most stringent air quality guidelines.

...and in Taiwan we live in a soup of PM. A 2017 study on Taiwan counted the likely number of deaths:

In 2014, PM2.5 accounted for 6282 deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 5716–6847], from ischemic heart disease (2244 deaths; 95% CI, 2015–2473), stroke (2140 deaths; 95% CI, 1760–2520), lung cancer (1252 deaths; 95% CI, 995–1509), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (645 deaths; 95% CI, 418–872). Nationally, the population attributable mortality fraction of PM2.5 for the four disease causes was 18.6% (95% CI, 16.9–20.3%). Substantial geographic variation in PM2.5 attributable mortality fraction was found; the percentage of deaths attributable to PM2.5 ranged from 8.7% in Hualian County to 21.8% in Yunlin County. In terms of absolute number of deaths, New Taipei and Kaohsiung cities had the largest number of deaths associated with PM2.5 (874 and 829 deaths, respectively) among all cities and counties.

Why it has become a political issue is more fascinating. There's a widespread perception that pollution has become worse. I remember the days in 1989 when I lived in downtown Taipei before all the factories moved to China, and it was much, much worse. I could sit in my room in the old Namaste Hostel, right next to the train station, and on a hot summer day the air would form acid in the back of my throat. But the factories left and the air in Taipei got better.

If I had to guess, I'd say that (1) the air in Taipei got worse recently, and god forbid the Celestial Dragon City suffer like hoi polloi in the hinterlands and (2) the omnipresence of apps that show the air pollution in realtime meaning ordinary people finally have something like real numbers and (3) the fact that more people are out and about in the air jogging and cycling. Changing the air pollution here will mean cracking down on factories. Hahaha. I think I will do a shot of whiskey now...

Taiwan News ran a piece on overbuilding in Taiwan. The decadal survey results show a rise in empty houses, which I am sure underestimates the true number.

Currently the number of vacant homes in Taiwan is estimated to be about 1.2 million. That amounts to about 14 percent of 8.5 million homes nationwide being unoccupied.

Over 70 percent of the 1.2 million vacant homes are concentrated in the six large municipalities of Taiwan; New Taipei (18.62 percent), Kaohsiung (12.38 percent), Taichung (11.65 percent), Taipei (11.09 percent), Taoyuan (9.36 percent), and Tainan (7.92 percent).

The numbers are very uncertain. A 2011 survey had the figure at 1.56 million, or 19.3% of all housing. Many "empty" buildings are rented off the books, while other rentals are not rented to a human, but are rented as storage units. Taiwan's heavily subsidized construction-industrial state and the recent bubble have, like all subsidized industries, overproduced, dealing immense damage to our environment and national economy, but making many people rich.

Which is what is important.
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Daily Links:

• China's new pollution regs hit Taiwanese factories there hard. So they must seek another country they can poison....
• American stupidity infects the world: Taiwan ISP calls for relaxation of net nuetrality.
• Beijing to get more menacing toward Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. 
• Shirley Lin on the re-emergence of the Taiwan Identity: Interview with the News Lens
• Fuel prices headed up!
• Looks like 2018 growth will be above 2%
• Taiwan's new national defense white paper is out.
• Jon Sullivan on China's influence campaign. Good work, Jon. The trick in talking about that is attempting to write truths about it, while not getting accused of racism (Jeremiah Jenne repackages that issue here). Good luck with that, anyone who tries. There are certain truths about Chinese interaction with rules based systems that cannot at present be publicly stated... but which are blindingly obvious to everyone who has been out here a while. It will be amusing to watch people struggle not to articulate them in order to avoid being called racist. I think I will do a shot of whiskey now....
• Nearly 200 university departments in Taiwan registered no students this year. Because of the idiotic Chen era subsidies, too many universities were built, mostly to farm government subsidies, even though the demographics were obvious. Moreover, many of the useful tech and vocational schools, important sources of factory workers and entrepreneurs, were upgraded to universities, which produce service workers. Unfortunately the government needs to move ruthlessly to shut down universities, so that will never happen. I think I will do a shot of whiskey now....
• S Korea seizes Hong Kong-flagged, Taiwan-chartered boat shipping oil to N Korea. The situation is more complex. A Marshall Islands registered firm owned by Taiwan nationals chartered the boat. Crew is Chinese and it is registered in Hong Kong. Local newspapers, especially the opposition, were unhappy with Tsai's tepid response, which was basically, "it's not really Taiwanese" rather than a strong "we won't put up with this shit".

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[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!