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Thursday, November 20, 2008

Obama's New Policy Team: Sutphen

Obama's new White House Deputy Chief of Staff is Mona Sutphen, who works for Stonebridge International, the big consulting firm that does a rousing business with China. Here is an article she co-wrote from a year ago in the LA Times. It gives a good idea of how the US foreign policy establishment views China, and probably the major premises of an Obama foreign policy. An excerpt:

Embrace China
The burgeoning powerhouse often is painted as a threat to the U.S. It should be viewed more as a partner.

By Nina Hachigian and Mona Sutphen
December 22, 2007

.....

John Q. Public has it more right than the politicos. America’s relationship with China is not zero-sum. Like other world powers – India, Russia, Japan and the European Union – China is more partner than threat. Many of our security interests overlap.

China actually helps us protect our shores from radiological terrorist attacks by allowing the U.S. to station inspectors in the ports of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the key departure points for more than 3 million shipping containers headed to the West Coast each year. Like it or not, we also rely on China – ground zero for avian influenza and other potential pandemics – to spot and contain outbreaks. Without Beijing’s deep involvement and cooperation, the U.S. will never persuade North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons program. Together, the U.S. and China represent both the problem and the solution to the global climate crisis.

As it gains influence, China no doubt will continue to give solace to America’s detractors, such as Hugo Chavez, and to derail U.S. plans that do not further its interests, as in the case of U.N. sanctions against Iran. But China is not a direct military threat, nor could it be for decades to come. Moreover, because China and the U.S. posses nuclear weapons, mutual deterrence will discourage a clash, as it did during the Cold War. Even with the status of Taiwan, which remains the most dangerous flash point, there is ample room for peaceful outcomes. Direct confrontation between the U.S. and China could certainly occur – it would not be the first time a war made no sense – but what a disaster that would be for the world economy and global stability.

Even on the economic front, where the news is full of reports of how China manipulates its currency, buys our companies and takes our jobs, the big picture is positive. Overall, its economic growth buoys our own. Trade with China has been responsible for measurable if modest growth in our GDP. Morgan Stanley estimates that China’s cheap exports have extended the paychecks of low-income Americans to the tune of $600 billion over 10 years.

Many of the criticisms don’t really hold up. All of foreign outsourcing is only responsible for about 2% of the jobs lost in the U.S. If the U.S. is to avert recession, it will be in part because of the dynamism of economies like China’s – and because the Chinese are willing to invest in American companies.

Finally, China is not an ideological competitor. It doesn’t have a coherent ideology to export even if it wanted to, beyond, perhaps, “Show me the money.” Beijing trades with despicable regimes, but it certainly isn’t alone in that regard. We rightly deplore how China represses its citizens, and the U.S. should call Beijing to task forcefully, but we have to acknowledge that our leverage to influence its internal political evolution is very limited.

We cannot rule out that China will become a hostile aggressor one day, and our military must stay prepared for that distant threat. For now, though, the challenge is this: How can we channel China’s energy into solving the raft of pressing global problems? How can we get Beijing to pay for the privilege of having a seat at the big power table?

China’s growth will cause some Americans to lose their jobs or get paid less. But it is America’s job to ensure that our working class is equipped to deal with these disruptions – not China’s. And it is America’s job to address the problems that hamper our nation’s ability to thrive in a world with multiple strong powers: our broken education system, expensive and inadequate healthcare, budget deficit, crumbling infrastructure and an addiction to oil. All these are problems we have to solve ourselves.

In an election year, it is always tempting for politicians to point the finger at another country. But American voters shouldn’t buy it. We should stay focused on the country we have the power to change.
China is our partner -- like Japan and the European Union! Wowweee!

It is not our ideological competitor because it has no ideology to export, claims Sutphen. Which misses the point that China, and our willingness to do business with it while ignoring its odious authoritarianism, simply legitimates other political regimes which are open for business as authoritarian governments. China floating by itself in space somewhere may not have an exportable political ideology, but when we let it into the international system, that most certainly provides support for a certain political ideology -- one which constantly undermines our authority as a beacon of democracy. If Obama intends to restore our moral authority in the world, taking a strong position on human rights in China would be a good start. But we all know that nothing of the sort will happen during the Obama administration, just as it didn't during any of the six previous administrations.

MEDIA: Note the LA Times blurb on them:
Nina Hachigian is a director for California at the Center for American Progress. Mona Sutphen is a managing director at the business consulting firm Stonebridge International. They co-wrote the forthcoming book “The Next American Century: How the U.S. Can Thrive as Other Powers Rise.”
The LA Times manages to mention that Sutphen works for Stonebridge without mentioning that its major business focus is.....China. Sutphen is one of many Obama Asia staffers who work for that firm.

27 comments:

  1. The Corner at National Review Online has some trivia about her previous work.

    Despite National Review Online being a conservative website, the text not critical as far as I can tell. It's really just trivia.

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  2. Like other world powers – India, Russia, Japan and the European Union – China is more partner than threat.----

    wait! why? how? since when?

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  3. Argh, I went to so much trouble to get the links to work on that last post and I think I left out the crucial information that makes the post almost relevant. The trivia is about Mona Sutphen.

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  4. Mona Sutphen et al. wrote "China actually helps us protect our shores from radiological terrorist attacks by allowing the U.S. to station inspectors in the ports of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the key departure points for more than 3 million shipping containers headed to the West Coast each year."

    Shouldn't that say "China actually needs our market so desperately that they allow the U.S. to station inspectors in the ports of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the key departure points for more than 3 million shipping containers headed to the West Coast each year."

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  5. The Taiwanese Miracle

    http://www.cadranpolitic.ro/view_article.asp?item=2686

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  6. Mona Sutphen et al. wrote "But China is not a direct military threat, nor could it be for decades to come. Moreover, because China and the U.S. posses nuclear weapons, mutual deterrence will discourage a clash, as it did during the Cold War."

    That mutual deterrence did a wonderful job keeping the Democracies and Communists apart in Indochina, and Korea. The kind of mutual deterrence nuclear weapons bring only works, unfortunately, where both sides believe it likely the other is willing to use them.

    Nuclear weapons kept Russia and China out of Europe and Japan, but they didn't do much good anywhere else.

    And even in Europe, we had to deploy tactical nukes to counter Russia's tactical nukes to convince Russia that we really would go nuclear in case of tactical nuclear strikes against Europe only. (Once we convinced Russia of this, they agreed to treaties removing these tactical nukes.)

    Mutual nuclear deterrence may keep China out of the US and key allies, but it won't do Taiwan much good.

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  7. Mona Sutphen et al. wrote, "Even with the status of Taiwan, which remains the most dangerous flash point, there is ample room for peaceful outcomes."

    Yeah, it could happen. How comforting.

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  8. Mona Sutphen et al. wrote, "Finally, China is not an ideological competitor. It doesn’t have a coherent ideology to export even if it wanted to, beyond"

    China's ideology seems to be that of "We're a great country/race that has been held down by hateful outsiders and its time we restore our greatness and take our place as hegemon." While it has littler resemblance to Communism, it has an scary familiarity to students of World War II.

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  9. The current progressive stance looks something like this:

    "...Let's be nice to them and then they'll see how much better we are and naturally want to be more like us because it is obvious to them that our way is superior, and in the mean time we can sell our apples to them because they need our apples like a panda needs a bicycle..."

    and the conservative stance looks like this:

    "They are bad, communists who are simply good for financing our war on terror and and giving us a reason to issue contracts to arms manufacturers... We want them to become democratic, Christian, white people, and if they didn't get the memo...f-'em! Still... Just don't make them angry because Asia is not as important as Russia and the Middle East and we need someone to look after the two Koreas while we're away."

    Can we get some brains in that town to come up with a diplomacy that can pair economic interests with a firm, non-negotiable stand on the principles of universal human rights and social justice?

    Part of the problem on the US side is the fact that each state has interests and the state governments often act independently and in competition with other states to attract foreign business and international contracts that they feel will benefit state constituents.

    China, as an authoritarian state, can issue centralized policy directed at overarching national goals, regardless if they are detrimental to different regions and provinces in China. There is nobody to complain.

    Maybe the progressives in the US can think outside the box on this for once, but I wouldn't count on it.

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  10. I think Mona Sutphen generally gets the economic stuff right, free trade is good and we need to compete, but her attitudes toward world power politics leave me worried.

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  11. What annoys me the most about this sort of thinking in regards to the Taiwan situation is that it assumes that, as the matter stands, a political "solution" is available without considering the enormous effort that such a political solution would require.

    As we all know, a political solution that the Taiwanese and the Chinese would accept would only be available with a significant commitment among the international community to ensuring the Taiwanese do not get a raw deal and considerable support for Taiwan's interests. But support for Taiwan seems to consistently get swept under the rug in the drive to make China a fuzzy partner.

    Without any support from the international community, the only "peaceful" political solution is to give the Chinese everything they want as they constantly refuse to negotiate on anything less than the letter of their demands. So why even make a big deal over a peaceful solution? Why not just abandon the commitment now and force Taiwan into unification "negotiations" that it's people don't want?

    This sort of thinking is precisely naive. Bush started out a hawk towards China and ended up the doviest of doves. What does it say when most of Obama's team starts as the doviest of doves?

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  12. Can we get some brains in that town to come up with a diplomacy that can pair economic interests with a firm, non-negotiable stand on the principles of universal human rights and social justice?


    Nope. And we are looking at an Obama administration without a single progressive in a meaningful Asia/foreign policy position. These people scare the shit out of me.

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  13. Without any support from the international community, the only "peaceful" political solution is to give the Chinese everything they want as they constantly refuse to negotiate on anything less than the letter of their demands. So why even make a big deal over a peaceful solution? Why not just abandon the commitment now and force Taiwan into unification "negotiations" that it's people don't want?


    Bingo. And we must "understand" China because it is an abused and humiliated child.

    Michael

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  14. .
    .
    .
    I must say, Obama is disappointing me so far. (But that is not to say that I think a McCain Administration would be any better, overall). The Obama team's stance on torture and Iraq is infinitely more comforting than McCain's. But then there's Afghanistan.

    So far, it looks like the non-progressives are going to be the real winners in all of this.

    Again, depressing. So very depressing!

    .
    .
    .

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  15. Perhaps we are being too alarmist here, don't you think. If Obama is truly in earnest when he wants to invigorate "made-in-America" industries, restoring manufacturing jobs, as well as energy independence with his green policies, then hiring people who, to other countries, appear non-conforontational is simply that: appearance.

    The long-term effects are the most important. Imagine the effects on China if it is much more attractive to hire cheap labour in the U.S. than it is to do the same in China.

    Afterall, the China brand is losing its attractiveness with the never-ending scandals that poision not only real pets and real people, the transnational companies, their shareholder's profits, and the stock market averages that result from the fallouts. Rather than antagonizing China, perhaps it would be a better idea to look for better trade partners. Maybe Obama wants his team to appear democratic to possible adversaries, when it is just smokescreen to hide the real strategy of leaving them in the cold

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  16. Wow...man...after reading it I now realize why Tibet seems to have world's sympathy but still get nothing and get no help from international community. It's because of hypocrites like Sutphen around the world that get us in this mess.

    Many people may not like Reagan but I am sorry to say at least he got some balls. When the Cold War is over and China is in trouble...why didn't we (both US and Taiwan, and the rest of world) make some crucial demand before we jump in like idiots? Come on, at least free Tibet! Instead a lot of western thinkers like Sutphen think by helping China modernize Chinese political system will change and we will live happily ever after...eh...right.

    And some one please remind Sutphen that Cold War ends well for the US not just because of mutual deterrence but also mutual disengagement. The US current situation with China is totally different because their economy is tangled together.

    But I hope after she took the new position, with new information and intelligence reports, and without the burden of running a company associating with China, she can make informed decision in the interests of US, and not sacrificing Taiwan in the process, when required.

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  17. If Obama intends to restore our moral authority in the world, taking a strong position on human rights in China would be a good start.

    What about Saudi Arabia? And no that doesn't mean what China does is fine, but the US has been hyprocritical about human rights in regards to countries that it deals with for a very long time. That isn't going to change.

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  18. "Maybe Obama wants his team to appear democratic to possible adversaries, when it is just smokescreen to hide the real strategy of leaving them in the cold"

    Maybe. But we can conceive any possibility for any situation if we try hard enough. And even if Obama is as you say he is, this would not help Taiwan at all. On the contrary, it would embolden China.

    Anyone else note how Obama's recent rebuttal of the Polish president's claim that Obama supports missiles in Poland was met by the Russians? The Russians simply declared they would no longer talk about this for another few months. In other words, they want to talk to Obama and get what they think will get a sweeter deal.

    Whether you think the missiles should be there or not, these are the risks of the foreign policy stances he has been advocating. Speak softly and carry NO stick.

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  19. China does have an ideology, but it's a hard one to export, because it's racist (or ethnocentric at the very least) - the pure Han people with a supposed five thousand years of history. Recently, Beijing has been able to use it to whip up the people there.

    Unfortunately, this ideology does export to Taiwan, with a lot of help from the KMT government and KMT-happy media here in Taiwan.

    I don't think Obama believes this is a big deal or that Taiwan is anything but a leftover from the cold war. I just don't see much good coming out of Obama's foreign policy as it relates to the people in Taiwan.

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  20. Anyone else note how Obama's recent rebuttal of the Polish president's claim that Obama supports missiles in Poland was met by the Russians? The Russians simply declared they would no longer talk about this for another few months. In other words, they want to talk to Obama and get what they think will get a sweeter deal.

    Whether you think the missiles should be there or not, these are the risks of the foreign policy stances he has been advocating. Speak softly and carry NO stick.


    I strongly suspect that Obama has far too much confidence in his ability to talk people into agreeing with him.
    In the United States and in Childhood, people are generally trusting, in part because if they make a mistake and trust the wrong person the consequences are pretty trivial. You lose some money. You lose some face. Stuff like that. Even in politics, worse case you lose an election and have to go make more money in private industry.

    In such an environment, someone with strong people skills like Obama has can have great success in persuading others to trust him and to come to a reasonable accommodation. I suspect that all through Obama's life, he has been able to do this, and believes that if he can just sit down face-to-face with leaders like Hu, Putin, and that Iranian guy whose name I can't spell, he'll be able to talk through their differences, see each others points of view, and compromise.

    Unfortunately, people like Putin and Hu aren't from the same environment. They come from an environment where trusting the wrong person lands you in prison or gets you killed. The played that game and they played it hard to get to the top. They're not the kind of people who are going to agree just to be agreeable.

    I'm don't think Obama is the first American President to have this overconfidence. Our way of electing presidents is such that we tend to get people who are extremely likable and have good people skills, and someone who is so good at those skills that he can get the top job in the land is at high risk for thinking he can charm anyone.

    In my opinion, McCain's years as a POW where charm couldn't protect him from regular beatings and torture would have been a safer bet for dealing with the Hus and Putins of the world. But he didn't win.

    I think Obama will learn - he seems very intelligent; I just worry how much of store he'll give away first.

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  21. um...can I say I told you so? nah. never mind.

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  22. As much as I'd like to quote Alfred's word from "The Dark Knight", I really didn't want to. The "O" and his administration's "wishy-washy group-think" simply doesn't work in the calculated chess game know as international politics. BHO probably gonna give away many of the store items before he learns anything. However, it does not matter since state department officials (*cough* A-holes who deserve to be anal-raped *cough*) and their cronies (usually business partners in some "consulting firms") are still gonna profit from dealing with Chinese, Russian, and other not-so friendly governments while BHO is doing the above. Sad thing is that general American population probably don't give a flying fuck since such actions won't come to bite them in the ass short-term wise.

    Man I kinda wish Jack Bauer would cap some state department officials in the upcoming season...

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  23. Well, it looks like the change we were promised in not going to materialize.

    What I mean is that today (Nov22), word is that NY FedRes Bank Prez Tim Geithner will get the TreaSec slot and Larry Summers will be put in a senior position in Obama's management team to eventually take over Bernankes FED slot.

    imo, Obama just proved he is bought and paid for by the Wall St. criminal elite. This is the same gang of crooks that started the financial mess. Geither played a part in the BSC & AIG bailouts and the destruction of LEH.

    Worse of all for Taiwan is that Geither spent a few years at Kissinger Associates.

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  24. Agreed, reeb. Change means a shift from far right to center-right.

    Michael

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  25. So when a President spends like a drunken liberal on social programs, he's "far right"? When he expands federal-government involvement in education to unprecedented levels, he's "far right"? When he creates new prescription drug benefits, he's "far right"?

    What is this "shift from far right to center-right" that you speak of?

    Bush has been on the right on social issues, but hasn't actually done much and could hardly be called "far right". The one social issue where he's really had an impact is education, and he dropped his support for the right's solution - opportunity scholarships - as soon as he took office.

    On social issues he hasn't pushed the country back toward the right, he just slowed the push toward the left down to a crawl.

    Obama's appointments don't point toward the right, they point toward the center left. He ran for the nomination as a leftist, and his choice of associations in the past point to a leftist, but he ran the general election campaign as a center-left (more center than left) candidate, and his early appointments make it look like he plans to govern from the center-left.

    But the far right was never in the picture.

    The real distinction between left and right is not "tax or don't tax", it's "spend or don't spend". The taxing just follows from being fiscally responsible.

    Bush spent like a liberal, and followed up by showing a fiscal irresponsibility that doesn't follow the ideology of either side.


    Anyway, if you really wanted change, particularly a change to fiscal responsibility, you should have voted for McCain. He's not far right. He's not far left. But he has a proven record of fiscal responsibility and centrist policies. That would have been a real change.

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  26. Bush has been on the right on social issues, but hasn't actually done much and could hardly be called "far right".


    What? His declaration that the presidency is above the law? The extensive surveillance state? Violations of habeus corpus, and routine contempt for the fourth amendment? I could go on and on. The Administration's shredding of the Constitution is classic far right bullshit.

    Michael

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  27. What? His declaration that the presidency is above the law? The extensive surveillance state? Violations of habeus corpus, and routine contempt for the fourth amendment? I could go on and on. The Administration's shredding of the Constitution is classic far right bullshit.

    You'll have to provide the source and quote for saying he declared the presidency above the law.

    As for the rest, I think you exaggerate but I won't argue the point as it would take too long and be inconclusive. Let's just assume he did all those things. Wouldn't that make him a leftist? Those sound like the kind of things Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Castro, and a lot of other lefties have done.

    Or perhaps we could just agree that people of both the left and the right can go too far in pressing their objectives and in doing so violate a lot of principles that a lot of people on both the left and right hold dear.

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