Bush Administration to Release $6.5B arms package

The Financial Times is among the many media sources reporting....

The Bush administration on Friday notified Congress of the proposed sale, which includes Patriot missiles, Apache helicopters, submarine-launched Harpoon missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles and spare parts for F-16 fighter jets.

Taiwan will welcome the package following earlier signs that the US might not proceed with the sales. Admiral Timothy Keating, head of US Pacific Command, ignited controversy earlier this year by saying the US had frozen arms sales to Taiwan.

The move comes as relations between Taipei and Beijing continue to improve under since Ma Ying-jeou assumed office as the new Taiwanese president in May. But the package is significantly less than an earlier $12bn proposal, and does not include Blackhawk helicopters or money to study the possibility of acquiring diesel submarines.

This excellent news has been building for some time, with reports piling up during the last few days on the various Taiwan and China lists that at last something was going to go through. The FT story observes that the Bush Administration slimmed the package down to appease China, but left it large enough to please Taipei. Also, the submarines, which I have always considered a massive waste of money, are eliminated....

One former US official said the slimmer package adhered to the “Goldilocks theory” of being “not too hard, not too soft to try to preserve things with Beijing”. A senior US official said the White House believed it could proceed with the sales now because Washington had restored a “very solid, very productive and positive relationship” with Taipei.

“President Ma needs these sales to demonstrate that he is doing the right thing for his people. On the other hand, we did not want to put such a large package forward that it would disrupt the positive trends in cross-strait relations, so we made a calculation to reduce the size of the package.”

The official added that some of the weapons not included in the package could be considered at a later point. But he said the Bush administration had decided not to consider submarines, since none of the countries that build the diesel vessels were prepared to sell them to Taipei.

I would say that the relations between Taipei and Beijing are moving in a positive direction too -- the kind of forward motion that takes one right over the abyss before anyone realizes it....

There's been a lot of speculation in blogs and media that the US is pleasing China because it needs those dollars in China to bail out Wall Street. Recently, however, Chinese banks have received instructions not to lend to US banks. Suddenly, the Bush Administration decides to reverse course and sell weapons to Taiwan. 2 + 2 = ???

Both the Obama and the McCain campaigns had wanted the Bush Administration to do the right thing before the new administration takes office. However, the Bush Administration has still refused to sell Taiwan the F-16s we need....the article continues:

Michael Green, former senior Asia adviser to Mr Bush, welcomed the proposed sales, which he said would remove any doubt that the US was committed to the defence of Taiwan. But he said the decision to postpone consideration of submarines, and the unwillingness of the Bush administration to consider F-16 sales, would give the next administration a difficult starting hand in dealing with cross-strait relations.

The Bush administration has refused to accept a letter from Taiwan requesting permission to buy F-16s. Mr Green said accepting the letter “would have been a nice additional touch” to the package announced yesterday. Another former Bush administration official criticised the decision, however, saying US credibility had been reduced by refusing to sell some items that had been previously approved in principle.

Sources in Taiwan expressed relief that the overall decision had not been left to the next US administration.

The Bush Administration has left many problems for the next Administration to clean up, not the least of which is Taiwan policy.

MEDIA: In this article, The Formula describing China's claims on Taiwan is excellent, entirely free of historical error, and very clear...

Although the People’s Republic of China has never ruled Taiwan, it claims the island as part of its territory and threatens to attack it should Taipei officially declare its independence.

I'd send Kathrin Hille a box of chocolates, but that's an ambiguous gift these days....

[Taiwan]