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Sunday, September 07, 2008

Sunday Media Round Up

Last month in speaking to a Mexican newspaper, Ma defined relations between China and Taiwan as "special" but not "special state-to-state" as Lee Teng-hui did, a policy which had held for ten years. The ex-President hit out at Ma this week, saying that he had "turned his back on Taiwan." Think we'll see screeching and hollerin' from all those people who had accused Chen Shui-bian of unilaterally altering the status quo with a referendum, directed at Ma Ying-jeou for unilaterally altering the status quo by downgrading our sovereignty? After all these years here, why am I still asking questions like that?

I can't resist noting that every expat on the island should support the Sarah Palin nomination. With all the Republicans arguing that Alaska's proximity to Russia has made her a foreign affairs expert, every expat on Taiwan now has the credentials to be a China specialist....but on a more serious note, people are asking whether McCain or Obama will be better for Taiwan. Two things should be noted: first, one-issue voting is ridiculous, and second, either could be. Much will depend on who McCain/Obama picks for his Asia people and his Taiwan advisors. I've made comments because I like speculating, like everyone, but basically, I do not know, and I am voting Obama.

Even as Taiwan's market slumps, people continue to write on how wonderful it is. Both of these pieces are pushing it (here and here), but the interesting point here -- aside from calling it "the most exciting stock market in the world right now" -- is that "Tom Dyson" claims to have lunch with someone famous in the industry, "Mr. Cheng":
Mr. Cheng says the opportunity in Taiwan stocks is a "one-in-ten-lifetimes opportunity."
while the piece in the India Times notes:
“The opportunity in Taiwan stocks is one-in-ten-lifetimes. But most people don't realise that commercial relationships between Taiwan and China are booming. Trade between mainland China and Taiwan is expected to reach $150 billion this year,” Suman added.
"One-in-ten lifetimes" occurring two apparently unrelated articles a world apart? The Taiwan index closed at 6307 on Friday, having lost the equivalent of US$300 billion in value since Ma took office, or about 1 year of GDP. Maybe now is the time for a truly smart investor to get in and find bargains, but I have some trouble believing it. AP reports that the government is attempting to soothe voters, but still repeats the utter nonsense that 40,000 people showed up to protest on Aug 30. Ma corrects himself and says the government will aim for 6% growth after four years. Tax reductions are one measure the government is mulling to save the economy. In any case, says FT, the problem is that the Chen investigation will overshadow the economy. Yes, everything is Chen Shui-bian's fault...I hear that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae used to rely on him for policy advice.....

Also on the economic front, the travel industry was calling for greater efforts to stimulate western and Japanese tourism since China tourism has been a bust. Beijing, we hear, is to blame for the bust. Meanwhile, in case you need something to recommend to your buddies from overseas on those freespending nights out, foreign chefs have agreed that braised pork rice is Taiwan's best dish. SHOCKER: how many Chinese tourists are actually coming to Taiwan: Claudia Jean finds an authority who says the daily number is: 37. Most "Chinese" tourists come from Hong Kong and Macau, it appears.

Taiwan's plummeting birthrate (8.9 per 1000 in 2007 vs 15 in 1997) is leading to school closures... rice fossils in Tainan are illuminating the history of rice use in Taiwan. Motorcyclists account for 60% of traffic deaths, and the death rate for unhelmeted drivers is about 8 times that of helmeted.

Perhaps taking office in Japan is the new prime minister, Taro Aso, to be sworn in under the new policy implemented this year under which everyone in Japan gets to be prime minister for 10 minutes. Max Hirsch has the call in the Japan Times:

"Taro Aso," said legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, "staunchly supports Taiwan — if he heads Japan's Cabinet, that should be a boon to Taiwan."

An outspoken conservative, Aso, 67, tends to take a hard line on China and backs Taiwan for its embrace of democracy. The hawk, Wang told reporters, also enjoys strong personal relations with many Taiwanese officials and supports Ma's China-friendly policies.


Everyone expects that Aso is going to be very friendly to Taiwan... Aso also supports the "Taiwanization" of China. Seems to me that is already happening, with both sides appearing to be moving in the direction of Singapore except on a much larger and more complex scale, because of their extensive agricultural hinterlands, complex ethnic issues, and foreign relations. At present, Singapore, not Taiwan, appears to be the ultimate model for "Chinese" democracy -- in the Taiwan case that is going to be flavored with some Japanese elements. Speaking of models and Japan, Japan Focus has a nifty piece on citizenship and subjecthood in the Japanese empire, including some remarks on Taiwan.

Fujian claims to have hosted 9 million Taiwanese since 1987. Also on leisure activities, Taiwan closed its last legal brothel, in Nantou. And here's an article on Taiwan's leisure farms, the back-to-nature equivalent of legalized prostitution.

And totally unrelated to Taiwan, this fascinating glimpse of Fiji's mercenary industry and its relation to US hegemony, Iraq, and local politics in Fiji.

25 comments:

  1. I wonder when people will start describing the culture of China as primarily Han Chinese with influences of German, Russian, Japanese and Taiwanese influences. LOL!!!

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  2. China's support of Russia mirrors own expansionism

    http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?id=16079

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  3. Michael, you wrote:
    - - -
    [...] I am voting Obama.
    - - -

    You think there's an ROC flag's chance in Beijing that they'll send you your absentee ballot now? ;-)

    Here's the "best" (cough, unethical, cough) part of Tom "Chimerica" Dyson's article about the mysterious "Mr. Cheng" [suggestive ellipsis exists in original]:
    - - -
    He took me to an expensive French restaurant. We had our own private room. The waitresses would tap lightly on the door before coming in. And then they'd bow to us...
    - - -

    ... and the worst part says:
    - - -
    split ... in 1949 following a civil war"
    - - -

    ... as if the two sides were part of the same country. (Sigh~)

    This important detail gets smothered by the rest of Kathrin Hille's FT Chen Shui-bian hit-piece:
    - - -
    [...] the Kuomin­tang, the ruling party, leaked a request by Swiss authorities [...]
    - - -

    Yes. And who tipped off the Swiss authorities?

    As far as stimulating Japanese tourism goes, all one has to do is get the message out to the Japanese that the Chinese tourists aren't here, and you'll have far more Japanese than Chinese. The Japanses will also be spending more money than their absent counterparts.

    You also said:
    - - -
    At present, Singapore, not Taiwan, appears to be the ultimate model for "Chinese" democracy [...]
    - - -

    Zoiks!

    Tim Maddog

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  4. 'With all the Republicans arguing that Alaska's proximity to Russia has made her a foreign affairs expert, every expat on Taiwan now has the credentials to be a China specialist'

    Long time no see Mr. Turton. There's more to it than just this statement here. Mrs. Palin is also a Proverbs 31 woman if you know what I mean. Christians too are excited about her because she is in line with the Word of God (Bible) as far as being anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, and for teaching creation in schools alongside evolution... ;)

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  5. The current George Bush seemed very pro-Taiwan prior to becoming president, and very much so at the beginning (besides trying to rip Taiwan off with those subs), but in the end, the US completely dropped the ball.

    I don't think that means the Democrats will be better at supporting the Taiwanese democracy better. But it means that it's not the issue you should be voting on, and if you have a lot of energy or time or money to help in supporting Taiwan, there's a lot more publicity work and letting people know about Taiwan's very free-vibrant-flawed democracy that really needs to be done. Otherwise neither Democrats or Republicans are going to have a rats chance in getting this right.

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  6. Question, does this allow Chinese officials to start buying Taiwan stocks on the uber cheap?

    I mean if I were the Chinese (PRC) government, the opportunity to purchase and control critical Taiwanese companies in tech, travel, and finance (banks) would essentially render Taiwan a part of China, for all intents and purposes.

    Ma's actions as of late is just depreciating investor confidence. Cutting taxes on stocks just makes it even cheaper for Chinese (PRC) investors.

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  7. Mrs. Palin is also a Proverbs 31 woman if you know what I mean. Christians too are excited about her because she is in line with the Word of God (Bible) as far as being anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, and for teaching creation in schools alongside evolution... ;)

    Some Christians are excited about her. Others are not so enthused about having Creationism taught in schools, about reducing the civil rights of certain population groups because of what they do with their genitals, and about reducing women to baby factories.

    As an atheist and American, Sarah Palin's lust for power and control, her contempt for civil law and procedure, her radical anti-environmentalism and her belief in crank ideas like global warming denial and creationism are terrifying.

    Michael

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  8. I hope you guys know Palin is a secessionist (or at least his husband is before joining the Republican party). Come on I know you guys want to vote for her :). This is an Arty's attempt at a bad joke.

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  9. 1. The US Treasury takeover of the GSEs today, I think, is bad news for free Taiwan because it will only worsen the credit crisis. There is a good video posted today on Market-Ticker called Fraudie and Phoney - The Aftermath that is worth a look. (prediction of a market crash in October).

    2. In Friday's TaipeiTimes, there was an interesting blurb on the bottom of this page.

    Near the bottom, it mentions that landing permits and/or multi-entry visas will be given to PRC citizens to Penghu in October. I wonder if this is part of Ma's plans to bring the Casino's to Penghu. (as one of the KMTs stimulus ideas).

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  10. "Think we'll see screeching and hollerin' from all those people who had accused Chen Shui-bian of unilaterally altering the status quo with a referendum, directed at Ma Ying-jeou"

    Ma's pledge to maintain the status quo is the status quo as of 1992. This is no big secret. The special state to state relationship dates from 1996 so it is not considered status quo as far as Ma is concerned.

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  11. "Aso also supports the "Taiwanization" of China."

    Given that certain Taiwanese are the only people in the world other than the Japanese who love Japan, I'm sure the Japanese would like the the Taiwanization of the entire planet.

    Japan already tried Taiwanizing mainland China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonisea, Australia etc. but it didn't work out too well due in part to their misguided attempt to Taiwanize the United States.

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  12. Ma's pledge to maintain the status quo is the status quo as of 1992. This is no big secret. The special state to state relationship dates from 1996 so it is not considered status quo as far as Ma is concerned.

    I understand what you mean, but hHowever, you put it, Ma has regressed the current status quo to an earlier version.

    Michael

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  13. Japan already tried Taiwanizing mainland China, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonisea, Australia etc. but it didn't work out too well due in part to their misguided attempt to Taiwanize the United States.

    Given the proliferation of young Americans I run into who enjoy appending -desu to the ends of their sentences, and pepper their speech with terms like kawaii and baka, while spending time outside of class downloading anime and manga and fantasizing about ninjas, I'd say that the likes of Nintendo, Bandai, Sony, and Pokemon have succeeded far beyond the wildest dreams of the Japanese militarists of yore.

    Now if you'll excuse me, Iron Chef America is on...

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  14. Where Chen had pushed China to see how much space he could get for Taiwanese, Ma has worked with China against Taiwanese to push back against popular opinion to see how far he can go the other way.

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  15. "I understand what you mean, but hHowever, you put it, Ma has regressed the current status quo to an earlier version."

    Or to put it more simply, there is no status quo and there never has been. A status quo can't "change" and stay changed for 12 years only to change back. Furthermore, since the "status quo" in this case is a relatively recent construction used to define the cross-state relationship, it is impossible to say that any state was ever the status quo. You don't just invent a status quo, then change it soon after, then change it back.

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  16. Hey Michael, if you support this could you make a blog about it? Use whatever you want from their site.

    Cheers,

    JOhn

    http://www.therealtaiwan.com/2008-baracktoberfest-kaohsiung/1360

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  17. Why am I voting McCain? I prefer his stances on foreign policy and national security in general, and I am aware that neither he nor Obama has a magic bullet to fix the economy. In fact, Obama probably gets a slightly better grade in this area, but his "betters" are not enough to make a huge difference in the long run.

    I would also not suggest anyone vote on one issue alone, but as this is a Taiwan-friendly site, it is important that the consequences of voting choices that may affect Taiwan be known.

    Which is why this summary of the Asia/China/Taiwan platforms of the Democratic and Republican parties is useful and interesting.

    http://etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=732527&cate_rss=news_Opinion&cate_img=140.jpg

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  18. One important excerpt:
    "The Democratic Party Platform contains 19 lines dealing with Asia, 11 of them on Taiwan.

    By contrast, the Republican Party Platform has 98 lines dealing with Asia, 15 of them on the Taiwan Relations Act, and 29 dealing with China. According to the platform, important countries have become independent, among them Taiwan. Treated as separate from China, Taiwan is listed ahead of China."

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  19. Haha, nice comment haitien on the Japanese influences in America, or across the world you could say.

    As far as McCain/Obama, I'm pretty much set on McCain. As long as he doesn't make any significant changes to his policies in the next 50 days or so, then my vote goes to him. I have no problem with Obama supporters, my problem is with supporters of Obama who know nothing about Obama other than "change you can believe in." They just listen to his speeches and are enthralled. Don't get me wrong, he is a great orator. But many young Obama supporters just take things at face value.

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  20. A Chinese spy vessel was detected cruising off Taiwan as the island's military prepares for its biggest annual exercise, officials said Sept. 9.
    http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3714426&c=ASI&s=TOP

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  21. Actually, Fukuda is still the Japanese prime minister. The Liberal Democratic Party will hold a leadership election on the 22nd of this month, and the winner will take over the government a few days after. Aso is the front runner, but he will face challenges from at least 3 rivals. Aso was also the early favorite last year to succeed Shinzo Abe when he resigned, but eventually lost out to Fukuda.

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  22. Err...You sure you weren't drowsy when writing about Aso? His campaign for PM selection has just begun...

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  23. "Why am I voting McCain? I prefer his stances on foreign policy and national security in general"
    Not to turn this into a US political discussion, but look at what the republican approach to foreign policy has done to this point. The once strong supporter of Taiwan democracy, George W, has been reduced to falling all over himself to cater to the PRC because he needs their support to maintain his invasion(s?) of other countries, which in turn has given the world a dim view of the US in general. The mighty W gave me a $1K tax rebate, which I appreciate, but at the same time he is spending $10 billion in Iraq monthly and oil prices have skyrocketed forcing him to further kiss PRC pi gu. I can't imagine what McCain is going to do to reverse this trend.....

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  24. OK, Thomas and Richard, get your bible out to welcome your new VP wannabe with open arms.

    Now, this is really scary.
    http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=aZvJ29P2N7U

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  25. 'Some Christians are excited about her.'

    Not all who call themselves "Christian" are indeed Christians Mr. Turton. You know how you can tell? The Bible explains how...


    "Others are not so enthused about having Creationism taught in schools,"

    Even alongside evolution? Palin is clearly saying both. Now Turton, rationally speaking, this world didn't happen by accident, I don't care how much you'd love to deny that. You yourself take pictures of living organisms daily and yet see no evidence for intelligent design?

    " about reducing the civil rights of certain population groups"

    Or rather chosen behaviour/lifestyles....if you act drunk around me, do you think I'd tolerate it? If you act homosexual around me, the same applies...I can hate the act and still love the person ;)


    " because of what they do with their genitals,"

    Genitals which were obviously designed. Look Turton we can discuss this all day, but GOD obviously made the woman for the man, and vice versa. The opposite sex is your opposite for sex.


    "and about reducing women to baby factories."

    Proverbs 31 states more than just that Mr. Turton. Children need a mother and a father, not two women or two men Mr. Turton....in fact, what's keeping you from acting like a homosexual?



    "As an atheist and American, Sarah Palin's lust for power and control, her contempt for civil law and procedure, her radical anti-environmentalism and her belief in crank ideas like global warming denial and creationism are terrifying."


    Only because you suppress the Truth in ungodliness. You know GOD, but you won't acknowlege Him or be grateful to Him. It's a shame you're not sharing about Him on Taiwan. No wonder you're voting for Obama...you support individual agendas that actually hurt the family unit, not help it. GOD made male and female. GOD established marriage between one man to one woman for life...and here you are denying that?

    Alright Turton, have it your way. But the more the media bashes Palin just because she is a true Christian (one who follows the Bible which teaches about Jesus Christ), the more sympathetic Americans will feel for her..

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