Some amazing stuff going on in the Caucasus right now. Information overload. Far Eastern Sweet Potato has an analysis here that faults the US. Over on the progressive site DailyKos there are several good analyses, including a long one by Jerome a Paris who apparently did PHD work on the independence of the Ukraine. Crooked Timber, the well known academic blog, observes the relationship between US support for Kosovan independence and Russia's invasion of Georgia. The US actually has a base in Georgia with "advisors", and "private" Israeli firms are also involved in training there. It's important to check the maps -- Georgia is where an all-important oil pipeline reaches the Black Sea. A glance at other maps will show that US military involvement follows the pipeline network -- in Afghanistan, where pipelines head into China and down to India (and which was a gas exporter prior to the 1980 Soviet invasion), Iraq, and Iran. Taiwan? All our pipelines are local....Russia said a while back that it would treat South Ossetia like Taiwan....
After the Kosovo precedent, Russia will treat its relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia “the Taiwan way,” argues Mikhail Alexandrov, head of the Caucasus Department at the CIS Institute. Speaking at a roundtable discussion “Russia and the Caucasian Agglomeration of Problems — Perspectives of the Parade of Sovereignties,” Alexandrov called this scenario most adequate. He reminded that the European Union has its trade mission on Taiwan, and the US have deployed on the island a military base.You can see what "the Taiwan way" really means = wait until the chance comes to intervene militarily. Russia has also exposed the gigantic flaw in the US Russian policy -- the Americans were not willing to go war with Russia over Georgia -- especially since, as I suspect the future will reveal, the Russians have given them assurances that the oil will continue to flow. Many might now see the US, fresh off defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan, now defeated again in Georgia, because it appears that Russia has absolutely bitch-slapped the Bush Administration. China must be eying the US response, eying Taiwan, and judging accordingly.
At the same time, Alexandrov contends, Russia will not go as far as to formally recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdnestr. In his words, recognition of these territories is illogical whereas Moscow does not bow to the unilateral proclamation of Kosovo's independence. He does not exclude that, choosing the “Taiwan way,” Russia will open its missions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Economic cooperation with these territories will be extended, Alexandrov forecasts.
Yet, as this mess was occurring, Georgia was applying for NATO membership. Imagine if this had occurred with Georgia as a full member obligating all NATO members to support it. What a test that would have been.....
[Taiwan]
---At the same time, Alexandrov contends, Russia will not go as far as to formally recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdnestr. In his words, recognition of these territories is illogical whereas Moscow does not bow to the unilateral proclamation of Kosovo's independence. He does not exclude that, choosing the “Taiwan way,” Russia will open its missions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.--
ReplyDeleteThat was never about Kosovo. It was ever about to have a base on ther side of North Caucasian mountains. And it was about to stop Georgians to go into NATO. (So long Georgia doesnt have cleared borders it cannt be in NATO and EU(not that EU wants them)) It was about to prevent agrow of gerogian political power inside of Caucasus.
Aside that its very false to drop Ossetia, Abhasia and Transdnestr into a same hut.
Ps. Realy guys... There was EU Plan to solve this problem. neither Ossetians nor Abhasians wanted to solve it.
If you are a NATO nation, you won't attack a self-governing state on the day of Olympic. I know US press is trying to spin very hard on the "Russian is the aggressor" but Georgian attacked first...now I wounder why the newspaper sell is going down the toilet these days.
ReplyDeleteNote to people from Taiwan: We, the US, won't do jack when China come knocking. We have bigger problem to deal with. We have 53 trillion dollars of obligations and debts to fulfill
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/
nat-debt/debt-nat.htm
And what amazes me is that the late baby boomer in the US from 45 to 55 only have an average net wealth of 100k INCLUDING primary resident.
--If you are a NATO nation, you won't attack a self-governing state on the day of Olympic.--
ReplyDeletejust Bullshit.
--I know US press is trying to spin very hard on the "Russian is the aggressor" but Georgian attacked first...---
Another Bullshit. Georgia did nothing more as Russians have done in Chechnia. Aside that US are very cool with Russia.
---now I wounder why the newspaper sell is going down the toilet these days.---
what?!
--And what amazes me is that the late baby boomer in the US from 45 to 55 only have an average net wealth of 100k INCLUDING primary resident.--
why are you talking about?
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gE0Xf-bZKYFrvHUb1gELSxP2C3IwD92FHHNO2
ReplyDeleteChinese "Harmony"
Hang on just a sec here!
ReplyDeleteCome on Michael, if you're drawing comparisons between Georgia and Taiwan, you've got a lot of explaining to do!
You've allowed the implication of casting Georgia as Taiwan and Russia as China. So where does that leave South Ossetia?
Is South Ossetia a part of Georgia? South Ossetians would tell you broadly the same thing Taiwanese would tell you if you posed the question "is Taiwan a part of China" - except they've actually faught wars to prove they mean it. You're not stupid, Michael, so what on earth are you doing making this implication in your post?
Surely you know that Georgia could just as easily be cast (if we're playing this crude analogy game) as China and South Ossetia Taiwan.
And where would that leave Russia? If no formal annex is proposed (and the Russians publicly say they have no intention of doing so - and who really thinks they want another Chechnya right now?) then...well I guess they could mischievously be called America.
Ben
ReplyDeleteIt's not a comparison between Georgia and Taian, per se. These are obviously quite different situations.
I think what's worth noting is how China and Russia are constantly testing how far, territorially, they can go.
Their incursions into neighboring countries (NB: China's extremely frequent breaches into Arunachal Pradesh) are like poking someone in the arm to see if they ever hit back. If they don't, or if support doesn't arrive, this gives a clear message to China and Russia that they can move ahead.
I think it's telling how Alexandrov described handling the Ossetian and Abkhazians. "The Taiwan Way" sounds like a playbook maneuver.
If I may add to the turmoil, it's also quite interesting that Mauritania's democractic government fell to a military coup. Why? China has been trying to negotiate oil deals with Mauritania--a place where Taiwan already has invested.
These upheavals during the Olympics are starting to feel like the scene in ''The Godfather''-- While Michael Corleone is attending a christening, he's sent out hit men to eliminate the competition.
Another Bullshit. Georgia did nothing more as Russians have done in Chechnia. Aside that US are very cool with Russia.
ReplyDeleteHuh? So what Russian did to Chechnya is right? If I recall correctly, you guys are the ones crying about that on this blog, too. Except this time Russia is the backer of Southern Ossetia who is right next door to the aggressor. By your logic, what's so wrong if China invade Taiwan tomorrow since all international bodies never recognize Taiwan as an state...and moving into a self ruling state not recognized by anyone killing thousands is okay???
P.S. I don't think Russia did is right either. However, I seriously don't know what Georgia is thinking. Actually I kind of do because if you listen to the so call Russian "experts" on the news program, they all told you that Russian CANNOT mount a long term offensive against Georgia. Personally, I think they are WRONG because Russia has become very rich over last 5 years because of the OIL boom! That's why you also heard why Georgia was caught by surprise with such rapid and over-whelming responses from Russia after Georgia's initial attack.
why are you talking about?
I am talking about we have bigger problems than worry about you self-righteous arrogant little island. Take 10 trillion off our book, and we will see no evil hear no evil.
P.S. who do you think that gave Georgia the weapons to invade S. Ossetia and doing all the initial killings. Have you ever heard of East Timor?
---Huh? So what Russian did to Chechnya is right?--
ReplyDeleteWHAT? where i said it?!!
--However, I seriously don't know what Georgia is thinking.--
THEN WHY AT THE HELL ARE YOU POSTING ABOUT?
Arty you have realy realy big mental problems.
I also don't think that it is fair to compare the response of the US when it comes to South Ossetia and the response if Taiwan were attacked. The US never pledged itself to defend the territorial integrity of Georgia.
ReplyDeleteI do agree that China is watching closely though.
And am I the only one who sees a Russian saying that they would handle the situation in "the Taiwan way" is a legitimisation of Taiwan's current status? I would think that the PRC only likes that comment slightly more than support for independence because it opens the door for future independence.
Russia invades its neighbor, and a Canadian analysis blames America. Who would have guessed?
ReplyDeleteShouldn't the residents of South Ossetia, who are far less Georgian that the Taiwanese are Chinese, have the right to not be a part of Georgia?
ReplyDeleteHow about this comparison: South Ossetia and Taipei County. The majority of both places want to maintain ethnic ties with their mother countries despite the "separatists" around them.
---Huh? So what Russian did to Chechnya is right?--
ReplyDeleteWHAT? where i said it?!!
I am referring to this statement "Another Bullshit. Georgia did nothing more as Russians have done in Chechnia..."
Are you saying Georgia did nothing more as Russians have done in Chechynia so Russian shouldn't do anything, or it is wrong thing that Georgia did but it doesn't deserved that kind of responses from Russia (this is our current spin). When terrorists killed 3000+ Americans, we invaded two countries. When Lebanon kidnapped two soldiers from Israel, Israel invaded Lebanon. So what's appropriated responses (or only appropriated responses are the one we see fit :P).
Arty you have realy realy big mental problems.
I don't have a mental problem, however, you do have a lazy brain problem of not thinking of a nickname...
"The majority of both places want to maintain ethnic ties with their mother countries despite the "separatists" around them."
ReplyDeleteBad parallel. You assume that the people of Taipei County vote blue because they want to be a part of the PRC.
--Huh? So what Russian did to Chechnya is right? --
ReplyDeleteGosh, you want an answer on it?
Here is an international answer on it: Russia did to Chechnya right. But Russia did not right to Chechenian population.
--Are you saying Georgia did nothing more as Russians have done in Chechynia so Russian shouldn't do anything,--
Russia should get own citizens out of Osetia and stop invading Georgian Teritory. So should Russia start to talk about this situation and force Georgia to acsept autonomy of South Osetia.
Aside that you are still have big mental problems.
Arty, you should stop to ride on Taiwan Indepdence then to Osetia and then to Lebanon.
ReplyDeleteAnd you should contact psyhologist.
How can seemingly intelligent people be so asinine. Those Russian units didn't just appear out of no where, they were sitting there waiting for an excuse to go in. And Georgia fell for it.
ReplyDeleteAll these 'leaders' are such fuck-tards. Instead of stating some hypocrite statement about invading nations in the 21st century, why doesn't some leader come out in support of all the innocent civilians who actually have to endure these murderers.