Veteran Canadian journalist Jonathan Manthorpe has an in-depth look at what a Ma presidency means to Tokyo and Washington in the Vancouver Sun:An unforeseen effect of the coming to power in Taiwan in May of president Ma Ying-jeou and the Kuomintang (KMT) party is an apparent loosening of relations with Japan and the United States, traditionally the two guarantors of the island's independence.An "unforeseen" effect of a Ma presidency was moving closer to China and distancing itself from Tokyo and Beijing? Lots of people spotted that one! Including this blogger, on many occasions.
Ma's victory in the March presidential election following the KMT's gaining of control of the parliament, the Legislative Yuan, in January elections has been broadly welcomed, especially in Washington.
The campaign pledge by Ma to improve relations with China, which claims to own the island, was seen as welcome relief after nearly a decade of tension during the presidency of the arch Taiwanese nationalist Chen Shui-bian.
Manthorpe's article is a good review with plenty of background -- often lacking in the international media. The meat of the piece says:
But although Ma pledged not to seek political unification between Taiwan and China, there are indications the pro-China stance of his administration is going further than his campaign promises indicated.The last section talks about the arms freeze:
Most startling was a comment earlier this month by KMT vice-chairman Kuan Chung during a visit to China that Taiwan's unification with China remains the party's goal.
The flip side of this cozying up to Beijing is the new Taipei government distancing itself from its traditional allies, especially Japan.
This came to the fore last month when a Taiwanese fishing boat sank after an accidental collision with a Japanese coast guard cutter off the Japanese-held Senkakou Islands, which the Taiwanese call the Tiaoyutai.
Taiwan claims to own the islands, but successive governments in Tokyo and Taipei have not allowed the dispute to get out of hand or taint economic and political relations.
Ma, however, took the belligerent course of dispatching nine Taiwanese naval vessels to the waters around the Tiaoyutai.
A dramatic contrast to Washington's initial welcoming of Ma's election is the Bush administration's decision to freeze arms sales to Taiwan.
This decision is especially odd because for eight years the Bush administration has been urging Taipei to take more responsibility for its own defence and to buy $16 billion-worth of American arms, including anti-missile systems, warplanes and submarines.
Former president Chen's administration wanted to take up the offer, but was constantly blocked from doing so by the KMT control of parliament.
Now in power, Ma wants the package, but the Bush administration is saying no.
This may in part be a gesture of thanks to Beijing for its help in pressing North Korea over its nuclear weapons program.
But there are also influential elements in Washington's military establishment that mistrust China's military modernization and who fear selling arms to Taiwan these days is tantamount to giving Beijing American military secrets.
It is often said that China would have US military secrets if they got their hands on US equipment from Taiwan, but I have also heard experts say the threat is overblown. It reads to me like more rationalization for the Bush Administration's positions.
No, I expect that Washington will send out some feelers that it is displeased, and Ma will make a move to placate Washington. Temporary happiness will bloom inside the Beltway, and meanwhile the KMT will continue to move the island towards China.
[Taiwan]
This is the same journalist who authored Forbidden Nation. A great starter book on Taiwan's international difficulties.
ReplyDelete"No, I expect that Washington will send out some feelers that it is displeased, and Ma will make a move to placate Washington."
ReplyDeleteI am not sure I follow you here. Washington technically has no reason to be displeased with Taiwan right now, unless you mean that they are displeased that Ma may be moving Taiwan too close to China too fast. This looks less like retaliation to me than a stupid miscalculation on the part of Bush n' Co. about American interests elsewhere.
My only fear is that this won't be resolved before the end of the year. In that case, either the US will just have to resolve itself to protecting Taiwan entirely on its own (which it won't) or surrendering influence in this part of the world, which it is already losing because of American incompetence in handling Asian affairs.
It may be startling to Mr. Manthorpe, but the KMT has never made a secret of the fact that its goal is Chinese unification.
ReplyDeleteWhy does Manthrope think it was "unforseen" that Ma's election would loosen relating with Japan when he believes that "native" Taiwanese have an affectionate view of Japan vs. the anti Japanese views of the unnamed people that apparently influence Ma?
Ma's orientation towards Japan is the correct one. Japan is an important ally of Taiwan which Taiwan needs to be respectful of but Taiwan should never put Japanese interests before its own.
A good model for Taiwan's relations with Japan and the US should be South Korea. The Koreans are allies of the Japan and the US but the Koreans always put their own interests before the US and Japan's, even if it means offending the US and Japan.
P.S. The Koreans also enjoyed the economic and social benefits of Japanese colonialism but somehow they managed to come through that experience with their dignity intact.
am not sure I follow you here. Washington technically has no reason to be displeased with Taiwan right now, unless you mean that they are displeased that Ma may be moving Taiwan too close to China too fast.
ReplyDeleteYes, I mean that Ma will have to make a move to placate those voices who are saying he is moving toward China too fast. Ma is in the position of an adulterer trying to convince his wife he is still faithful. But then she keeps finding those blonde hairs on his suits....
I agree that the Bush Administration has really screwed up in Asia. But the huge popularity of Obama overseas says something about a deep and abiding affection that Bush has not entirely killed.
Michael
Yes, Forbidden Nation is great. I assigned to my son as homework.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Obama and Asia, this story appeared in the NY Times a few days ago. Notice not one mention of a China/Asia adviser is mentioned: A Cast of 300 Advises Obama on Foreign Policy
ReplyDeleteA second link is a article by Webster Tarpley describing who is in charge of US foreign policy and what the direction the US is going (Pakistan attack). Some people may think Tarpley is a bit tinfoil and it doesn't help his credibility that this article is posted on rense, but it's a interesting read: PowerShift
Imho, it doesn't really matter what Ma says anymore. The financial crisis in the USA will determine the destiny of Taiwan. It's about to get a whole lot worse with the coming bailout of FNM and FRE. (and bankruptcies of LEH, WaMu, Wachovia, MLynch, IndyMac, Countrywide/BAC, Citi and who knows, maybe even the CDS monster JPM). Mike Whitney and Jim Willie both have good articles out this week on the crisis.
Taiwan, as an export economy, is about to get a rude awakening. It doesn't help that the people voted away any and all oversight on how they will face this coming crisis. The only solution the KMT can offer is to unify with China. (which won't help since their economy will also be in crisis).
There were plenty of people speculating that the primary reason the KMT blocked the arms purchase for so long was that they didn't want the DPP to be the ones in a position to reap the hidden 'benefits' of the purchases (i.e. $$$$). The fact that the KMT now wants the purchase seems to support that theory. Or does the KMT really not want to purchase arms in order to avoid an 'arms race' with China (and/or want a weaker Taiwan that is drawn further to China) - and is just getting some political points by appearing to want the purchase? Let's see what happens if the US does an about-face on the sale.
ReplyDeleteThe only reason I can see that the KMT actually want the purchase is to give themselves more leverage in a unification scenario.