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Sunday, July 13, 2008

"You don't do enough" crowd: Apologies, please

Over the last three years, as I've followed the news on Taiwan, one of the hottest issues has been the special budget for the purchase of submarines, P-3C antisubmarine aircraft, and Patriot missiles (good background piece). Despite the fact that Taiwan has consistently been among the world's top purchasers of arms under the outgoing Lee Teng-hui and subsequent Chen Shui-bian administrations -- $4.1 billion in 2002-2005 time frame alone, there's been a pack of uninformed, agenda-driven commentators who have argued that Taiwan isn't doing enough in its own defense.

Ted Galen Carpenter, whose writings I have discussed at length here is a good example. Last year he wrote in a piece I dissected in May:
That leaves America in the unenviable position of having an implicit commitment to defend a fellow democracy that doesn't seem especially interested in defending itself.
Carpenter accused Taiwan of "free riding" on the US defense network. To which I responded...
Yes, perhaps America is in an unrewarding and potentially dangerous position. If so, it has only itself to blame for this mess -- rational pricing, a friendly co-production strategy, some patient commitment to the democracy side in the island's politics, constant pressure on the pro-China parties -- and all of this might have been avoided.

Withal, it must be said: it is high time US opinion leaders focused on a major cause of the problem: the United States. Sort out our own behavior, and Taipei will perforce follow.
I was always suspicious of Bush Administration motives, because it seemed that the root cause of the arms purchase problem lay not in Taiwan, but in the US. Another thing that drew attention of the US role in prolonging the agony was the media's constant neglect of it (an example). Again and again the media would report that Washington was blaming Taiwan for the problem, without reporting that Washington was a cause of the problem. When the media all sing the same song, it is time to start looking for who is calling the tune. At the time, observing the US double standards and conflicting messages, I wrote:
The US position is gibberish. On one hand, it accuses Taipei of not wanting to buy US weapons and thus, not being serious about defense. On the other, it says Taipei is too serious about defense, for it is building "offensive" weapons. From yet another angle, it complains that Taiwan is building offensive weapons and that is bad, but then it is criticizing Taiwan for not buying US submarines, weapons that the US refused to sell Taiwan for twenty years because.....they were offensive weapons. And let's not forget: citing the legislature's intransigence on the arms purchase, the US has refused to sell requested (and needed) F-16s to Taiwan -- and then it accuses Taipei of not being serious about its own defense!

If any human held the US positions, it would immediately be put in a straitjacket.
Of course, now we know the truth. The Bush Administration probably never intended to sell those weapons to Taiwan in the first place, since the conditions it offered -- inflated prices and no local co-production on the submarines -- were unacceptable. Or perhaps it genuinely did, but by the middle of the 2001-2008 period the Administration appears to have decided that there would be no further major arms packages. Certain by 2006, when it refused to sell F-16 fighters to the island, the de facto weapons freeze was already in place. Asking for fighters was merely the event that triggered its positive application -- you don't suddenly implement a policy like that without due consideration. No, the arms freeze long predates the 2006 request for more fighters.

Thus, when the Ted Galen Carpenters of the world were writing in 2007 that Taiwan was free riding on our defense network and not doing enough in its own defense, the reality was the exact opposite: Taiwan was asking for weapons that the US would not give, and then being accused of not doing enough in its own defense. This was not, mind you, official schizophrenia but official policy. I will let the reader decide whether the parade of officials the Bush Administration sent forth to complain that the island wasn't buying enough weapons was sincere or merely political theatre.

Whatever the case may be, there has been an arms freeze now for three years. Are we going to get an apology from the Ted Galen Carpenters of the world for accusing Taiwan of wrongs that the Bush Administration was guilty of?

Yeah, right.

6 comments:

  1. I would agree that Bush did intend to start to offer more weapons to Taiwan. Later on, as you've said, it got distracted by what was happening in the Middle East and then needed China's help on some foreign policy matters.

    The arms freeze is more recent, as can be seen by the fact that the P-3C Orion and PAC-3 updates (as opposed to the new battereis) went through in September and November respectively, if my memory serves me correctly.

    As for the F-16 sale it is difficult to know what Bush's position on it has been over the last few years. Doubtless if he ever intended to authorise it he will do so after the Olympics at some point before he leaves office.

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  2. What China needs now is just to step down and say sorry about Tianmen and Tibet then USA will gift Taiwan to China for another bunch of money.

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  3. Yes, the Orions and the PAC-3 updates went through, but have they arrived? It apparently takes years for stuff that is approved to actually show up. I remember inquiring about the Paladin artillery systems that were approved in 2001 or 2002 and by 2006 deliveries apparently still had not begun. I have no idea what the reasons are.

    Michael

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  4. The EP 3 incident was leading Bush to think China would be his bogey man to scare the American people into increasing military spending (there has to be something, right?), but Bin Laden provided a better opportunity.

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  5. I believe there have been complaints about the quality of Taiwan's military rather than just the quantity of arms they buy. The comment from an assessment team was "We came expecting Israel but instead we found Panama." Note this comment did not come from a Bush appointee but from the military assessment team sent here.

    Programs that let the gifted recruits work for electronics firms instead of doing service also seem to reinforce the idea that the armed forces are less important than Acer and ASUS. (Oh but they suddenly get religious on the cost of weapons from the USA...its not as if every weapons deal we make results in lost sales of 747s to China and such)

    Weren't there also remarks about how Taiwan would buy weapons and then not train enough or maintain them?

    Red A

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  6. Just went back and read the April 2007 post you made. Couldn't help noticing Taiwan's military spending as percentage of GDP was down to 2.2% of GDP in 2006 from 3.8% in 1994.

    This maybe is too low for a country facing an existential threat from a large neighbor.

    Saudia Arabia, your chosen country for comparison on absolute terms, spent 10% of GDP in 2005. Israel, probably a better comparison, spent 7.3% in 2006. China spends 4.3% of GDP.

    You would think a country worried about China could at least match it percentage wise.

    I'm not so sure about that free rider argument being completely bogus. Plus, even if the US won't sell Taiwan weapons, they can make their own (as they do for some now) or buy them from someone else.

    red A

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