The Washington insider report The Nelson Report talks about the Diaoyutai mess from the US perspective, including worries about Ma's ability to control his own people....and the backchannel discussions between Washington, Taipei, and Tokyo.++++++++++++
JAPAN/TAIWAN...observers actively involved in Taiwan affairs are expressing relief that President Ma today seems to have re-established a degree of adult supervision over extreme nationalist elements in his own KMT party...thus helping to defuse the maritime crisis boiling away since a June 10 incident with Japan.
US experts note that Ma was able to coordinate with his defense officials, blocking any further dispatch of boats to the Senkaku and/or Diaoyutai Islands...and then was able to prevent a delegation of KMT extremists from conducting a highly provocative "fact finding mission" to the region.
Our sources say that while the outcome for now must be credited to Ma, today's actions came after "conversations, consultations, you name it, between Washington and Tokyo, Tokyo and Taipei, Washington and Taipei, and every combination...everyone talked to everyone."
This, after the US had nearly 7 years of "difficult" relations with the independence-minded DPP government, and what President Bush himself perceived as a consistent failure by Taipei to take US interests into account.
This time, "We made clear we didn't want this 'politicized'," an informed observer explains...a reference to the problems with the KMT.
Other observers admitted they were a little taken aback by language used yesterday by the State Department calling for a "peaceful" resolution of the standoff, explaining, "it's a little worrisome that we didn't call for a 'diplomatic' solution...it would seem to imply a genuine concern about the potential for violence..."
For what it's worth, President Ma also picked-up on the word "peaceful", rather than "diplomatic", before he apparently took the actions which today, at least, seem to have calmed the waters.
US observers noted that Prime Minister Fukuda expressed "regret" over the original incident of the 10th, in which a Japanese Coast Guard vessel collided, and sank, a Taiwanese fishing boat which had ventured into the disputed waters.
So the US was pleased that Ma said he "agreed" with Fukuda's statement that "both sides should remain calm".
For the longer run, we should note that during our visit to Taiwan for the elections, in March, observers in Taipei expressed concern, and some frankly offered a considerable degree of doubt, that President-elect Ma would be consistently able to exert control over powerful senior KMT players.
Today, an observer here, looking at the overall situation, concedes "Japan has much reason to be concerned..."
Back during his Inaugural speech, Taiwan President Ma worried observers in both Japan and the US by not reading a paragraph praising Japan...a deliberate omission seen in some quarters as a harbinger of Ma's determination to patch-up relations with Beijing regardless of Japan.
We mention that as there are some observers in the DPP who feel that the recent "invasion" of disputed off-shore islets and energy exploration areas by right-wing activists and KMT members was somehow orchestrated by China.
But most experts we mentioned this to say it seems unlikely, given China's recent campaign to patch-up relations with Japan...as per the joint energy exploration deal being announced this week.
++++++++++++++++
Think about it -- US officials were pleased that "Ma was able to coordinate with his defense officials." Ma's position among his own people is so weak that it is notable he was able to give orders to his own officials.
[Taiwan]
Most of Japan's problems in its relations with other countries are completely self-inflicted. The current Diaoyutai incident is no exception.
ReplyDeleteThere is a reason why Japan has no true friends in Asia (except for the Taiwanese). If Japan had acted more like Germany in the aftermath of WWII, no doubt Japan would be accepted in Asia to the same extent Germany is now accepted in Europe.
Notwithstanding the US - Japan security relationship, the best friends Japan has in the world are the Taiwanese. Up until his death, my late grandfather would have immediately answered the Japanese Emperor's call to arms and up until the time of her death, my late grandmother continued to worship Shinto idols in her home in Tainan. The Taiwanese people have recently chosen a new government in hopes of better relations with the PRC. That Japan would choose this time to take such an aggressive stance with the Taiwanese on such an emotionally charged issue as sovereignty is astounding to say the least.
As stated by many commentators, the only people in the world who love Japan other than the Japanese themselves, are the Taiwanese. Japan's self destructive foreign policy is driving its only true friends in the world right into the arms of the PRC. The bosses in Beijing must be laughing their asses off right now.
this reminds me of a little kid, talking trash in the schoolyard, knowing that his Big Brother is right behind him.
ReplyDeleteI picked up on that too. But it is what we've been pointing out all along- that Ma has really not played the part of the president thus far. So far it seems like the KMT was voted into power for the presidential elections. Hsieh vs KMT.
ReplyDeleteThink about it -- US officials were pleased that "Ma was able to coordinate with his defense officials." Ma's position among his own people is so weak that it is notable he was able to give orders to his own officials.
ReplyDeleteStill not getting used to how the correct way of Taiwan government should be run huh? Did I told you to look at US city mayor/manager system and (now I give you another close one) the France fifth Republic system.
...it would seem to imply a genuine concern about the potential for violence...
ReplyDeleteI am reminded when (was it Siew?) met with the AIT officials early in the election and "warned" about all the expected violent activities the DPP would try to engage in to win the election. The list was a brilliant work of overexercised imagination that reflected KMT thinking rather than DPP behavior. Although Chen's government was "difficult", I'm sure the US and Japan are even more wary of the potential for real trouble initiated by the KMT. No one can assume the KMT's legacy of violence and intimidation have been altered by becoming "democratic."
I wonder what's stopping Ma from asserting the ROC's claims to Outer Mongolia. According to the ROC Constitution it is integral sovereign ROC territory, and it's being occupied by an illegitimate government.
ReplyDeleteand (now I give you another close one) the France fifth Republic system.
ReplyDeleteComparing Ma's government to that of Charles de Gaulle is merely superficial.
I assume you are referring to the consitutional changes de Gaulle made that saw the president directly elected by the people, elected for seven years in consultation with an appointed prime minister. But that was France, not Taiwan; and that was de Gaulle, not Ma.
The constitution of the Fifth Republic was born out of the political turmoil of the Fourth Republic. Taiwan's system was created out the need to end 50 years of tyranny.
Also, as the creator and upholder of the new constitution, I doubt that President Ma will ever be a de Gaulle. Most significant contrasts of these men are that de Gaulle was a known war hero-- a liberator and the leader of the "Free French"-- whereas Ma was a mole under a dictatorhip; de Gaulle was a staunch pragmatist and a non-Wilsonian and didn't find value in national ideologies, and; strongly believed in France's sovereign right to make its own decisions.
Comparing Ma's government to that of Charles de Gaulle is merely superficial.
ReplyDeleteI am comparing the political system, not the administration (please don't miss read me intention). Although I am pro-blue as some of you claimed that I am, I still worry about Ma's ability to rule.
"and some frankly offered a considerable degree of doubt, that President-elect Ma would be consistently able to exert control over powerful senior KMT players."
ReplyDeleteExpect more like this in the future. The honeymoon is over for those outside of Taiwan. I doubt it has helped him inside of Taiwan either.
I am comparing the political system, not the administration
ReplyDeleteDon't you "miss read" (sic) me! I SAID the comparison is superficial.
The Fifth Republic was a parliamentary democracy. While Taiwan appears to have that system, it is really more of a totalitarian democracy.
Students finally brought down de Gaulle's government in '68. I doubt any organized group in Taiwan could do that.
Students finally brought down de Gaulle's government in '68. I doubt any organized group in Taiwan could do that.
ReplyDeleteHuh, I did say similar right...btw, today's France is still the fifth Republic (I am not talking about any particular administration).
btw, today's France is still the fifth Republic
ReplyDeleteIndeed, and it has survived some horrendous presidents and severe economic downturns, partly because of the active involvement the people have in influencing the system, UNLIKE Taiwan. It also has a very active multi-party system, UNLIKE Taiwan.
Your weak comparison seems to want to us to believe that Taiwan's political system will survive like France's or some American city, but I'm afraid there's much less guarantee of that.
Your weak comparison seems to want to us to believe that Taiwan's political system will survive like France's or some American city, but I'm afraid there's much less guarantee of that.
ReplyDeleteWell, I am just telling you how the system is suppose to run. I don't guarantee anything. Some of the city governments in the US have failed due to this system. The city I am living in, San Diego, was a prime example after the pension funding scandal broke out. Now the city charter was reworked and the full authority was given to the mayor and the city manager was strip most of his/her power. The president in a twin ruler system always stay in the background because the highest executive branch official is the primer, and the president control the system by holding the right to appoint whoever he wants. Unless Taiwan successfully rewrites its own constitution, Ma is simply following the rule of the law unlike Chen. Btw, Ma follows too close to the book which could be his biggest pitfall, but using this argument of saying he is a puppet (as some bloggers suggested in this blog) is a litter over stretching.