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Friday, May 02, 2008

Ma is Lai-ing

UPDATE II: I'm leaving this post up but now several people whom I trust have emailed me to tell me I'm wrong about the Deep Blues -- the Deep Blue KMT reaction is for real and Ma is in the middle of the road reaching for allies in the Lee Teng-hui crowd against the hardline KMTers. This would make all the discussion about Lai's "pro-independence" position Blue-generated nonsense to cover the anti-Ma stuff going on out of sight. As always, sorting out which cynical interpretation of events is the correct one is a full-time job....

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The Lai Shin-yuan Affair took a new-old turn today. Readers will recall that the other day the incoming premier appointed Lai, from the "pro-independence" Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) to be the head of the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), the chief policymaking body for cross-strait relations (blogged here first and subsequent). Recent pieces in the media had identified her as strong supporter of Taiwan independence: ("hardliner"), ("surprise choice"; "counter to the pervasive mood of thawing"; "pro-independence figure"). Maddog and others, however, suggested that she was a fake Green. Maddog pointed out in comments on my post that she had been part of a plot to hurt the Greens that had actually driven pro-Green TSU people out of the TSU.

Who was right? What is Lai's real position? Well, as always, Ma Ying-jeou had the last laugh. Today the pro-Green Liberty Times reported Lai is neither Green nor supports independence.

賴當立委時,與台聯立委關係不睦,反與新黨出身的雷倩、賴士葆、費鴻泰等互動密切,杯葛民進黨不遺餘力。至於賴密會馬英九,據傳也是透過藍營立委牽線。

When Lai was a legislator, she didn't get along well with the TSU legislators. Instead, she was close to Lei Chen, Lai Shih-pao, and Fei Hung-tai, all from the New Party. She opposed the DPP with all her strength. She was rumored to have had secret meetings with Ma Ying-jeou brokered by Blue legislators.

According to the report, legislative records show that she sponsored a bill to cut the 2-28 museum budget with Lei Chen, and also strongly supported the call for President Chen to step down. This angered many grass-roots TSU people. Prior to the legislative elections, the report also observed, Lai was the only TSU legislator not to support Frank Hsieh.

In other words, Lai is far from Green and far from an independence supporter. She's a fake Green, a drearily common animal familiar to any longtime observer of politics here.

This little affair illustrates two things. First, that when the KMT claims A it is best to believe B. If a KMTer tells you the earth circles the sun, it is best to check with an astronomer to see if the situation has changed recently. The "protests" and "complaints" about Lai are political theatre aimed at the foreign media, to reinforce the idea that Lai's "pro-independence" views are for real and Ma really is broad-minded. Ma Ying-jeou must be laughing his totally buff ass off right now. Those of us who have long known what Ma really is can only shake our heads -- wasn't that Ma the other day saying how he picked Lai to represent the 5 million who chose against the Anschluss? That was Ma in his finest form, speaking Absolut Bullshit with a completely straight face. The bottom line is that Ma would not have picked her if she wasn't safe -- he must have known she didn't represent independence even when he told the world it was so.

No doubt a slew of laudatory prose by foreign commentators stumbling over themselves to praise Ma's openmindedness will now commence.

The other interesting thing about Lai is how she shows the variegated nature of Taiwan politics. The TSU is a rump mix of former politicians of many different stripes. Despite being an anti-globalization lefty, Lai nevertheless pals around with New Party rightists, the Bluest of the Blue.

UPDATE: The best comment on Lai came from Chiu Yi, who was jailed for attacking a government building with a truck after the last election.

When approached for comment, KMT Legislator Chiu Yi (邱毅) called Lai “a politician who just wanted a government post,” adding that she did not have “an intellectual’s strength of character.”

"She previously sought to become a legislator-at-large candidate for the People First Party [PFP] and told [PFP Chairman] James Soong (宋楚瑜) that she completely agreed with his ideals,” Chiu said.

“She later went to [former president] Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) to join the TSU and said she completely agreed with Lee’s ideals, but Soong’s and Lee’s ideals were totally opposed,” he said.

To understand how ridiculously ironic that is coming from Chiu Yi, read this post on him by Wandering to Tamshui.

13 comments:

  1. .
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    Very interesting! And kudos to Tim for pointing this fact out!

    Get your fingers ready. I encourage everyone reading this to reply to any publication that spreads this falsehood about PandaMa being politically "open-minded".

    The foreign corporate media will most definitely misconstrue the truth on this one.
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    ReplyDelete
  2. Anschluss?

    Michael, come on. I don't mind if you want to say a Ma presidency will be bad for Taiwan, but using a term like "Anschluss" is going too far even if you're not talking about Chinese troops moving in.

    Besides, if Taiwanese couldn't do anything to stop such a process as you may refer to then they don't deserve independence.

    Personally I think this is simply a clever move by Ma with no sinister motives. He's a politician - what do you expect? The DPP would have done the same thing if possible.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Michael, come on. I don't mind if you want to say a Ma presidency will be bad for Taiwan, but using a term like "Anschluss" is going too far even if you're not talking about Chinese troops moving in.

    Ok, then pick another term for annexation and i'll be happy to use it.

    Although Ma's One China position already says that Taiwan and China are part of the same country, with two governments.

    The Anschluss has already happened on some basic level.

    Of course it was a clever move by Ma, and of course it had base motives. When Ma piously said he picked her to represent the 5 million, he was being ironically mean. I don't know if it was "sinister" but it certainly illustrates some very fundamental things about his character.

    Michael

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  4. Come on Michael... Ma hasn't even assumed office and you're giving him such a hard time. He may very well turn out to become a historic statesman...
    ...He could be the Neville Chamberlain of Asia.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "Although Ma's One China position already says that Taiwan and China are part of the same country, with two governments."

    I have been thinking recently... what is to prevent someone in the DPP from initiating a referendum on one country, two interpretations? If the KMT tried to alter the law to block such a referendum, they would lose credibility as a democratic party. If they tried to encourage people not to vote, they would risk the referendum failing, which would indicate a low public support for the policy. If the referendum was defeated, it would cause a huge embarrassment for the KMT and for China. If the referendum passed, which is unlikely seeing as how the idea is so controversial, then arguably everyone would win because it would indicate the Taiwanese are wholly in favour of such an eventual annexation.

    The US and China would scream, but once such a referendum was initiated, it would be a political minefield to undermine it in Taiwan. China might call such a referendum a vote on independence, but not letting the Taiwanese choose whether they support the policy would be denying the population of the island any choice in their future. The DPP could argue that the KMT was putting the country in this position by advocating a controversial policy that they have not shown the population supports.

    Would there be any reason why such a referendum could not see the light of day? It could potentially be a no-lose situation for the DPP.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Raj wrote:
    - - -
    I don't mind if you want to say a Ma presidency will be bad for Taiwan, but using a term like "Anschluss" is going too far even if you're not talking about Chinese troops moving in.
    - - -

    ... before continuing with (emphasis mine):
    - - -
    ... I think this is simply a clever move by Ma with no sinister motives.
    - - -

    Raj, soldiers aren't the only kind of "troops," and the word "Anschluss" gives people an even stronger impression of what's really happening here than "annexation" does. Until far more people understand these things, China's irrational behavior won't be seen for what it is.

    Here's an excerpt from the Wikipedia page on Anschluss (bold emphasis added, links within removed):
    - - -
    Nazi Germany had provided support for the Austrian National Socialist Party (Austrian Nazi Party) in its bid to seize power from Austria's Austrofascist leadership. Fully devoted to remaining independent but amidst growing pressures, the chancellor of Austria, Kurt Schuschnigg, tried to hold a plebiscite.

    Although he expected Austria to vote in favour of maintaining autonomy, a well-planned internal overthrow by the Austrian Nazi Party of Austria's state institutions in Vienna took place on March 11, prior to the vote. With power quickly transferred over to Germany, the Wehrmacht troops entered Austria to enforce the Anschluss.

    - - -

    Can you see the parallels? (If you read on, you'll find even more.) And do you see that troops only moved in to enforce the Anschluss which was the result of an "internal overthrow"?

    Is it "okay" if they "only" brainwash you into submission -- if they beat your brains to a pulp using BS-TV instead of with bombs and guns? Even the former isn't okay with me.

    Tim Maddog

    ReplyDelete
  7. "First, that when the KMT claims A it is best to believe B. If a KMTer tells you the earth circles the sun, it is best to check with an astronomer to see if the situation has changed recently."

    ***

    Wow, that's some hard-hitting analysis. Your pals Bolton, Tkacik, Hershenson, etc. must be very proud of you. Why are you wasting your time teaching English on our little island? Someone of your potential belongs in Dick Cheney's bunker helping to bring democracy to all of the oppressed peoples of the world.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Wow! An anonymous insult! Such bravery!


    Michael

    ReplyDelete
  9. "Wow, that's some hard-hitting analysis. Your pals Bolton, Tkacik, Hershenson, etc. must be very proud of you."

    You don't need a degree in International Policy to recognise a chronic liar, Anon.

    ReplyDelete
  10. tim

    You quoted me, yet you failed to notice what I meant. I'll say it again:

    even if you're not talking about Chinese troops moving in

    I.e. even if it is a political/economic/other non-military process.

    ReplyDelete
  11. First you state what the KMT says is likely to be untrue, and then you quote Qiu Yi in support of your position... Ehm...

    Saw some other comments (elsewhere, I think) who wrote that picking Lai for that position means that organisation is not going to be very important, because contact with China is going to go through party channels anyway, not through official government channels. I think that is a rather more likely explanation.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I didn't quote that yammerhead Chiu Yi in support of my position; I quoted him because his comment was so hypocritical it was priceless! Chiu Yi switched parties so he could run for mayor of Kaohsiung (as I recall) but dislikes it when someone else does it. And he's such a clown! For him to accuse others of intellectual shallowness....

    ReplyDelete
  13. Raj, wouldn't it be ironic if it was you who hadn't read what I wrote? I'll type this very slowly:

    "Anschluss." is. the. right. word. for. Michael. to. use. And. even. if. they're. "only." taking. over. your. brain., it's. not. okay. by. me.

    Lu's comment is also rather ironic. What better than a habitual spokes-liar could one use as evidence of a lack of trustworthiness?

    Tim Maddog

    ReplyDelete

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