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Thursday, May 01, 2008

Bonnie Glaser for CSIS on Taiwan-China Relations

The Nelson Report has the latest from CSIS' Bonnie Glaser on Ma Ying-jeou's victory and what the US should be doing. Glaser is normally a first class commentator on Taiwan affairs, but this one is well-below her usual standards....

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CHINA-TAIWAN...with President-elect Ma's inauguration getting closer, Beijing is still locked in a debate over what, and when it should offer some confidence-building measures to welcome the KMT's return to power.

CSIS's Bonnie Glaser has been out to the region recently, and offers her findings and advice via CSIS PacNote #24:

If Not Now, When? Will China Seize the Opportunity to Improve Cross-Strait Relations?

by Bonnie S. Glaser

Of the combinations of outcomes of the Taiwan election - a DPP or KMT victory, the passage or defeat of one or both of the referenda - the March 22 result in which Ma Ying-jeou won by a substantial margin and both referenda failed was the result that Beijing hoped for. The new situation presents a historic and strategic opportunity for China to transform cross-Strait relations. The United States hopes that Beijing will respond positively to the new situation and without delay.

In his congratulatory message to the people of Taiwan, President Bush stated: "It falls to Taiwan and Beijing to build the essential foundations for peace and stability by pursuing dialogue through all available means and refraining from unilateral steps that would alter the cross-Strait situation. I believe the election provides a fresh opportunity for both sides to reach out and engage one another in peacefully resolving their differences." It should be clear from these remarks as well as from the comments in Bush's subsequent phone call with President Hu Jintao that the U.S. is firmly in favor of improved cross-Strait relations. I believe that this robust support will extend beyond the Bush presidency.

Ma and the KMT are eager to move forward first on the economic agenda. This includes regular weekend charter flights beginning July 1 and daily scheduled flights by the end of the year, permitting more Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan, relaxing China-bound investment caps on Taiwan businesses, reaching agreement on avoiding double taxation, making arrangements for convertibility of currency, and establishing improved financial services for businessmen.

U.S. involvement in the implementation of these initiatives is unnecessary. The primary U.S. interest is that Beijing move with alacrity so as to boost domestic support in Taiwan for Ma's change in policy away from emphasis on Taiwan's separate independent identity toward the establishment of a new modus vivendi with the mainland. If China moves too slowly, this may deprive Ma and the KMT of the backing they need to sustain a policy approach that has not yet won the support of the 42 percent of Taiwanese voters who cast their votes for the DPP. With the view widely held in both the U.S. and Taiwan that Taiwan's economic success will depend in large part on expanding economic ties with the mainland, Beijing must take steps that promote mutually beneficial outcomes and avoid increasing Taiwan's vulnerability to mainland pressure.

Read this paragraph closely. Glaser's position is that it is (1) in the US interest to suppress opposition to Ma's policy of moving Taiwan closer to China; and (2) that Ma should do all this without increasing Taiwan's vulnerability to China's pressure. Excuse me, but if (1) is successful and the pro-Taiwan side in Taiwan's politics is suppressed, please explain how Taiwan is going to be less vulnerable to Chinese pressure. Also please explain how sending away the last of our manufacturing capabilities and increasing dependence on China is going to make us less vulnerable to Chinese pressure. Finally, please explain how future US support for pushing Taiwan into Beijing's arms makes Taiwan less vulnerable to Chinese pressure?

On one aspect, however, the U.S. has a strong interest, and that is permitting foreign (i.e., American) airlines to participate in the direct flights once they have moved beyond the charter flight stage and are occurring on a scheduled daily basis. The U.S. does not seek to define cross-Strait flights as international flights, but rather seeks opportunities for U.S. airlines to expand their routes and increase profits.

Pursuit of greater international space for Taiwan follows the implementation of economic items on Ma's agenda. Achieving progress in this area is essential. U.S. opposition to the DPP-initiated referendum to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan should not be misconstrued as indicating reduced U.S. support for meaningful participation by Taiwan in the international community.

Glaser is right as far as she goes -- Bush Administration service to Beijing on the referendum issue is not the same as opposition to all meaningful participation by Taiwan. Unfortunately, that is not the whole issue. The problem with the Bush Administration's overwrought reaction to the referendum was that it was not accompanied by balancing positive reactions supporting Taiwan in other areas. Had the Bush Administration been equally vociferous in support of Taiwan's entry into the WHO or other organizations, Glaser might have a leg to stand on here. But since the Bush Administration was practically silent on other participation, while adopting Beijing's position on the referendum, Glaser is without support for this remark.

An early opportunity to provide Taiwan with greater international space will emerge May 19 at the World Health Assembly meeting, a day prior to Ma's inauguration. It is unfortunate that Chen Shui-bian has opted to apply again this year, as last year, for both membership and observership using the name "Taiwan." This has most likely let Beijing off the hook this year, although if China wanted to seize the opportunity to make a goodwill gesture, it could work out an arrangement for action by the WHA to grant observer status to Taiwan under the name "Chinese Taipei" on the second or third day of the session, once Ma is sworn into the presidency and has declared his unambiguous support for "one China, respective interpretations."

Chinese officials say that the WHA meeting is simply too soon and no progress can be made this year. Perhaps. But it is a missed opportunity for China to demonstrate creativity and flexibility. Based on conversations I have had in recent weeks with Chinese officials, I worry that China's fear that the DPP could return to power in four or eight years may dictate Beijing's approach to the international space issue and result in a decision to offer Taiwan only limited participation in international organizations in ways that can be easily reversed. Such a decision would undoubtedly disappoint the United States, not to mention the Taiwan people.

First of all we see how Chen Shui-bian is the problem again ("Unfortunately Chen...."). Chinese intransigence is never a problem. The Chinese threats to plunge the region into war and to kill Taiwanese are good things which no one should ever object to. Indeed, they do not even require mention. That silly Chen Shui-bian! What a goose!

Note that Glaser is worried that Taiwan will have participation in the international community in ways that Beijing "could easily reverse." No shit, Sherlock -- what else is left? If Glaser was really concerned about this, she probably should have advocated US support for Taiwan's entry into the UN, since that would be difficult to reverse....

Competition between the mainland and Taiwan for diplomatic allies should end immediately. If a country that is allied with Taiwan changes its diplomatic allegiance to Beijing prior to Ma's inauguration or shortly thereafter, this would slow the momentum on Taiwan in favor of engaging the mainland. A truce should be tacitly adhered to for several months or longer. Chinese officials contend that Beijing is hard-pressed to reject the request by countries allied with Taiwan to establish diplomatic relations with China. If there are such cases, China should have prior consultations with Taipei and work with Taiwan to ensure a smooth transition so that Taiwan can maintain unofficial representative offices in those countries and protect its economic and other interests.

Here is an interesting aspect of China-Taiwan relations. As I noted last week, Paraguay will be seeking to end its relations with Taiwan and switch to China. China is correct in arguing that other nations seek to come on board. Ma has already indicated he will end the checkbook diplomacy that the KMT began all those years ago. I'm curious to see what will happen here, but it is in this sphere that China will be most likely to offer Taiwan a bone. It is also a good opportunity for China to accept such relations, oust the ROC from its relations with Paraguay, and remind Ma who is really boss.

Military/security issues in PRC-Taiwan relations are not likely to be dealt with immediately, but it is clear that Ma and the KMT want to engage on this set of concerns and make concrete progress in the first term. Prior to the opening of authorized talks on ending cross-Strait hostility, China can take steps to signal goodwill. Dismantlement of a brigade of short-range ballistic missiles deployed along China's southeastern coast would be a symbolic gesture that the U.S. and Taiwan would welcome. Declaring a freeze on missile deployments would enable Ma and the KMT to avoid criticism that they are engaging the mainland while China continues to increase the threat to Taiwan's security. Indeed, Ma has said that he will not agree to launch talks on a peace accord while the missiles aimed at Taiwan remain in place. Just a few days ago, Ma told a delegation that I led to Taipei, "Once we decide to negotiate a peace agreement it will be embarrassing if more than 1,000 missiles are targeting us."

The establishment of regular direct air links should be seized upon to establish contacts between the law enforcement agencies and, if possible, the militaries of Taiwan and the mainland. Representatives from each side could be embedded in the existing delegations in charge of negotiations and in the future be included in SEF-ARATS discussions. Air corridors could be agreed upon for civilian and military aircraft that would minimize the possibility of an accidental collision. Opportunities exist for coordination and preparation for emergency response, including joint humanitarian rescue capacity and the establishment of communication links. In the near term, such measures will ensure that the air links are conducted safely; over the longer run they will aid in promoting patterns of cooperation that will create the foundation for future military confidence-building measures.

The positive transformation of the cross-Strait relationship will take a great deal of time and is not inevitable. For a long time to come, China will insist on maintaining a credible deterrent against Taiwan independence. Taiwan will also want to maintain capabilities to defend the island against attack and the U.S. will remain legally obligated to provide defensive capabilities, including weapons, to Taiwan, under the Taiwan Relations Act. It is in that context that China should evaluate and respond to continued U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and ongoing U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation. The U.S. does not seek through weapons sales and security cooperation with Taiwan to undermine the improvement in cross-Strait relations. On the contrary, the U.S. believes that it must take steps to bolster Taipei's confidence to engage in negotiations with the mainland.

China should set aside its suspicions that the U.S. opposes and will seek to prevent the reunification of Taiwan and the mainland. For one thing, reunification is not on the agenda. Ma Ying-jeou has said that he will not engage in talks with Beijing about reunification while he is president. The more relevant question is how the U.S. will view and respond to the developments in cross-Strait relations that are under discussion, including the signing of a peace accord. The most important impact of eased cross-Strait tensions is the reduced chance of the outbreak of a war in the Taiwan Strait that would likely involve the United States. This is undeniably positive for U.S. interests. The establishment of a more sustainable status quo that can abide until the time is ripe for a permanent settlement of mainland-Taiwan differences is beneficial for the U.S., Taiwan, and China, as well as for the other nations in the Asia-Pacific region. And finally, if Taiwan can become a less contentious issue between Beijing and Washington, this will also benefit U.S. interests by enhancing Sino-U.S. trust and increasing opportunities to cooperate on other issues.

I don't dismiss the possibility that some people in the U.S. may be nervous about closer mainland-Taiwan relations and that these concerns could influence U.S. policy in the future. To ensure that those fears do not guide U.S. policy, China should avoid seeking to extract unreasonable concessions from Taipei that would undercut support for Ma Ying-jeou and increase suspicion in the United States that Beijing seeks to reduce U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific.

The March 22 Taiwan election presents an historic opportunity to transform the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangular relationship and create win-win-win dynamics, but realizing this opportunity will require wise and far-sighted leadership on all three sides. The U.S. expects China to move relatively quickly to put cross-Strait relations on a more constructive track by taking steps in the economic realm, followed by measures in the diplomatic and security spheres. In China, a bold strategic decision will have to be made by Hu Jintao, lest bureaucratic inertia, customary caution, and constant vigilance against U.S. intentions to curb China's rise prevent pro-active steps from being taken. This is an opportunity that should not be missed.

There's quite a bit here in these paragraphs, but more crucial is what is not here. Note that even as we speak Lien Chan is off to China to talk to Hu Jintao, and I doubt very much they will be discussing the brush techniques in Lang Shih-ning's One Hundred Horses. So reflecting back on what you just read, why does Glaser never mention that there is a separate set of contacts between Beijing and the KMT that does not, at the moment, openly include Ma Ying-jeou? And that this set of contacts dates back to before the 2000 election? The focus of this piece is entirely Ma-centered, as if Ma were the only and most important decisionmaker. But he is probably neither.

Also observe that China's threat to Taiwan vanishes nigh-on completely. War is mentioned --

"The most important impact of eased cross-Strait tensions is the reduced chance of the outbreak of a war in the Taiwan Strait that would likely involve the United States."

The outbreak of a war -- this passive construction entirely removes the agency from China. Yet the US is not going to attack China, and Taiwan isn't going to start a war. Only one actor here seeks to plunge the entire East Asian region into war: China. Let's imagine if Glaser had forthrightly stated

"The most important impact of eased cross-Strait tensions is the reduced chance of China attacking Taiwan, an event that would likely involve the United States in a war"

But instead, she wrote "...the outbreak of a war..." as if war was like a thunderstorm that occurs without the intervention of human agency.... Another interesting neglect is Japan: it also does not appear here. YetJapan is currently reevaluating its Taiwan policy, and a Taiwan in China's orbit has definite implications for Japan -- and perhaps for South Korea as well. Once China subsumes Taiwan, that will strengthen its desire to annex the disputed islands in the waters to the south as well, and for territorial gains on other fronts. China's expansion is a regional problem, and if US analysts are going to use terms like "responsible regional player" then they need to stop writing as if the only concern here was US-China relations. UPDATE: No mention of the D-word in Glaser's piece either.

Glaser is kind not to dismiss the fears of those of us who believe, in the words of one towering intellect, that when the lion lies down with the lamb, the lamb doesn't get much sleep. Ma's whole program of stimulating the economy by opening it to China depends on Chinese cooperation absolutely. China holds the whip hand here. Glaser advises China not to extract "unreasonable" concessions from Taiwan -- but does not define unreasonable. When negotiators come from a culture where transactions are expected to produce a clear winner and a clear loser....

I've blogged before on the cargo cultish way in which "opening to China" is advocated. Another dawning cargo cult is the idea that Taiwan's democracy will somehow transform China's. If only Taiwan "opens" to China, then its democratic ideas will somehow flow into China like rays of light illuminating change in the political landscape. This is often presented as a possibility, but the underlying view is that of inevitability. This despite the fact that the constant flow of students from China to the western democracies has not resulted in any such change (as the recent hu-ha over Tibet has shown), nor have the million Taiwanese now there wrought any such mutations in the Chinese body politic. What no one ever mentions is the opposite possibility, far more likely, that China will change Taiwan's domestic polity, and not in positive directions. With a longtime anti-democracy politician soon to be President of Taiwan, and a leadership in Beijing that hates Taiwanese democracy, I don't think we'll be seeing positive transformations of our island's political structure any time soon.

18 comments:

  1. Hi Michael, just a bit of minor spelling in the paragraph. It should be "Lang" Shih-ning as in 郎世寧

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  2. Dear Mr. Turton,

    I appreciate your hard work that you put into this blog, and I would like to read it regularly.

    However, I am puzzled by your partisanship. What's that "our island" thing about? From your profile it seems you are an American teaching English in Taiwan. Why do you so confidently take sides in that country's domestic disputes?

    Please understand that I don't want to come across as disrespectful, but I am honestly confused by your position. I have Taiwanese friends on both sides of the domestic political divide, and I don't feel like you are giving due credit to both sides' arguments.

    Best regards,
    Viktor Brech

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  3. Good analysis MT - The zero sum game part is accurate. There is nothing in the cards for Taiwan besides become a SAR of the heavenly masters.

    I am now of the opinion that its not worth selling Taiwan any more F16s or communication gear because it will eventually end up in China's hands. (Of course the US Mil/Ind complex will be pissed if the deal doesn't happen, but what do they really care about US security)

    BTW: Did anyone see Ma on TV last night? He looked old and haggered. Maybe he just had a bad night, but the stress and strain already look like they are getting to him and here it is 20 days even before he becomes prez.

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  4. Thanks leafy! Aargh. Thinking about Lai Shin-yuan again today.

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  5. However, I am puzzled by your partisanship.

    Truly I am a partisan pro-democracy blogger. I make no apologies for being pro-democracy; indeed, I wonder why so many our not.

    What's that "our island" thing about?

    I live and pay taxes here, and have for many years. My wife and children are all local citizens. Why shouldn't I use our?

    From your profile it seems you are an American teaching English in Taiwan. Why do you so confidently take sides in that country's domestic disputes?

    What's wrong with supporting democracy in Taiwan? How can one exist without holding political opinions? And why shouldn't I take sides -- Public policy here affects me!

    Please understand that I don't want to come across as disrespectful, but I am honestly confused by your position.

    Why? I should think my position and its motivations are very clear.

    I have Taiwanese friends on both sides of the domestic political divide,

    Me too.

    and I don't feel like you are giving due credit to both sides' arguments.

    What is the "other side" you are referring to, and what are its arguments? For me the "other side" consists of people and institutions that oppose democracy in Taiwan.

    Michael

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  6. I don't know if we shouldn't sell F-16s to Taiwan -- Ma might be out in 4 years, though I kind of doubt it.

    Michael

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  7. I think it is a hoot that she says that "reunification" is not on the agenda. For China, this is main driving force for any economic carrots it may offer. Ma has said he won't discuss it, but "one China, separate interpretations" has ONE country at its centre, despite the fact that no Taiwanese under 40 I have ever met honestly see, Guangdong, for example, as part of their country.

    So how is "reunification" NOT part of the agenda?

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  8. Our Island

    I totally support Michael's argument. We live here, pay taxes and raise children here. This is our home and their home. Foreigner is as much a Taiwanese ethnic group as Aborigine and Mainlander; i.e. groups of different peoples from different socio-cultural and linguistic backgrounds, clumped together as a single group based on their contact and relationship with state power. Get used to it. A little OT, but.... Although it is ridiculous that non-tax paying "Hua Qiao" have representation in the LY and conversely, tax paying foreigners have no advocacy for their interests, rights and cultural space (think of mixed children here too)... we might as well blog our hearts out. Sorry, the positivist's argument doesn't hold.

    Keep it coming Michael!

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  9. Those who want to preserve Taiwan's democracy and defacto independence have to decide what price they are willing to pay to preserve it.Unfortunately,it is not primarily a question of history or morality but of realpolitik.China makes other countries accept its views on Taiwan because of power.The sooner Taiwan accepts that it can never compete with the PRC on this basis the sooner it will start considering real options.The US and some other countries respond to the moral case of supporting a fellow democracy but are they willing to face the PRC's military might?In the final analysis,Taiwan's future will be decided by the determination of its people.The PRC only understands power.Taiwan better learn to speak that language.Small countries can stand up to much larger ones.Look at Israel and North Korea.For them survival is the ultimate morality.They pursue it by ANY MEANS NECESSARY.

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  10. I think it is a hoot that she says that "reunification" is not on the agenda. For China, this is main driving force for any economic carrots it may offer.

    Yes, I know! I think lots of people out there think if they just repeat "reunification is not on the agenda" enough it will come true, like Dorothy chanting "there's no place like home" at the end of The Wizard of Oz.

    Never mind her use of the term "reunification" although Taiwan has never been part of the PRC or ethnic Chinese imperial state.

    Michael

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  11. .
    .
    .
    From a recent Glaser newsletter on Taiwan's Presidential election:


    Ma Ying-jeou and his KMT party have consistently indicated a willingness to return to a vague understanding of “one China,” which is referred to as the “1992 consensus” because it was reached by Taiwanese and Chinese negotiators in that year. For Ma, each side of the Taiwan Strait must be allowed to have its respective interpretation of one China, and he insists that one China is the Republic of China, which is Taiwan’s formal name. If Beijing and Taipei can agree to not dispute the definition of one China, then talks could be launched to address a number of highly contentious issues, including Taiwan’s desire for expanded participation in international organizations.


    Glaser is either 1) a hack for some agenda or 2) another example of how letters after your name doesn't necessarily indicate that you have excellent critical thinking skills.

    In the excerpt above, she states that the 1992 consensus is a fact and then, in the same breath, states that it is a conditional. The whole basis of this so-called "consensus" relies on the "2 definition" aspect of "one-China". There is no "if" when you state it is a fact.

    And she is helping to mold American foreign policy?

    Very scaaary!
    .
    .
    .

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  12. Michael, you rhetorically doubted Glaser's knowledge of Physics:
    - - -
    [I]f (1) is successful and the pro-Taiwan side in Taiwan's politics is suppressed, please explain how Taiwan is going to be less vulnerable to Chinese pressure
    - - -

    The simple answer is that once they crush Taiwan, no more pressure need be applied. That's how. (Not that it's a good thing, of course, but it would explain Glaser's writing.) [/Physics]

    Thomas asked (also rhetorically, I presume):
    - - -
    So how is "reunification" NOT part of the agenda?
    - - -

    Because from their point of view -- and I parody-phrase -- the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) said that it wasn't (on TV!), their followers believe that it isn't, and that's that. Their "Bibles" (the China Times and BS-TV) told 'em so. [/parody-phrase]

    Thomas, you and I and Michael and Stop Ma just don't seem to have what it takes to be "True Believer[s]" in their "church." [/plug]

    Michael added to the thread:
    - - -
    ... like Dorothy chanting "there's no place like home" at the end of The Wizard of Oz
    - - -

    ... or the scene from Peter Pan in which they all say "I do believe in fairies!" in order to bring Tinkerbell back to life. [/Hollywood]

    Michael continued:
    - - -
    Never mind her use of the term "reunification" although Taiwan has never been part of the PRC or ethnic Chinese imperial state.
    - - -

    It's the way this has been incorrectly framed for so many years by the "squeaky wheels" on both sides of the Strait, but as you know, the correct term would be "annexation" (併吞). [/Webster's]

    Viktor's puzzlement over Michael's partisanship presented a paradox of insatiability:
    - - -
    I appreciate your hard work that you put into this blog, and I would like to read it regularly.

    However,
    ...
    - - -

    Michael, it sounds like Viktor would like for you to give "equal time" to democracy and authoritarianism -- y'know, "both sides" of something or other. It's only fair, right? [/sarcasm]

    BTW, my wife and I have friends, relatives, and employers on both sides of the political divide, too, and when I hear the arguments from those in the blue camp, they are rarely, if ever, convincing.

    But I am officially in a Taiwanese family record (and deductive reasoning would tell me that Michael is, too), so Michael -- not as a "colonizer," but in identifying this as the place where he's raising his family -- is perfectly right to call Taiwan "our island." [/the facts, Jack!]

    Tim Maddog

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  13. Thanks, maddog. Another frustrating thing is that Glaser is usually so damn good. But this one is like she assembled it from some modular essay-writing exercise.

    Michael

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  14. "Glaser is usually so damn good. But this one is like she assembled it from some modular essay-writing exercise."

    Well, nobody can be good 100 percent of the time. How can Wong Kar Wai make In the Mood for Love, 2046 and Happy Together, and then make something so crappy like My Blueberry Nights?

    For those who haven't seen these movies, my apologies. Think of it as a 10, a 10 and a 10 and then a 4.

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  15. If one lives in Taiwan, he would naturally call it his home...as much as the California is "my home" when my skin is Chinese.

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  16. I didn't think there is "Chinese" skin. If so... there are a lot of people who are citizens of China who'd better leave. You don't have to be Chinese if you don't want to. It's a choice.

    I find it interesting that for both Chinese nationalisms... "ethnic minorities" must prove their ethnic identity based on "science" i.e. genetics, "traditional" customs, linguistics, material culture etc... and yet, the concept of an "ethnic Chinese" is accepted based on the primordialist mythology of the Yellow Emperor and 5000 years of history. Does anyone else find this absurd? If we were to apply the same standard evenly, we'd have to assume "Chinese" are related to the people's of eastern Europe based on their traditional costume of cheap "Western" style suits.

    Furthermore, a Taiwanese identity somehow completely rooted in ancestry relies almost entirely on one's imagination to conceive of ancestors who were not real. They may have existed, but anything beyond memory is entirely the realm of the fantastic as to who or how they might have been; apparitions imbued with our own desires for our ancestral past.

    So, Michael calling Taiwan "our Island" is as valid as Ma Ying jiu calling Taiwan "his island", or CCK's claim to be a Taiwanese. They were not born here either and CCK moved to Taiwan as an adult. We can always argue the primordialist stuff back to Africa. Where do we choose to stop? People have multiple identities, which are always in negotiation...and it is simply a matter of when we wish to deploy them. Do we run off all the Waishegren for not being "authentic" enough according to X, Y or Z? How about foreign spouses?

    When we get into a battle for authenticity (true/false), which essentializes identities, and denies the constant change and dynamism of human societies, the next step is to degrade, demean, discriminate and oppose difference. I don't think I need to give examples.

    Taiwan often claims to be a multiethnic/multicutural society, yet the current idea of 4 ethnic groups essentializes and denies the existence of everything in between. People have been crossing those boundaries for hundreds of years. Rather than confine the peoples of Taiwan to an artificially restrictive formula for who can claim "we" status, it would more accurately reflect the reality of a multiethnic/multicultural Taiwan to allow all ethnicities cultural space, so one "group", or rather people pressured to identify with a group based on its access to power, do not have dominance over others, a scenario which is still being played out in Taiwan right now.

    Sorry Michael, probably the wrong place to rant, but it somehow goes with something up there I think.

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  17. Michael:

    So many issues to address here, but I'll hit the key ones briefly. We can address the most important ones over a beer in Taipei or Taichung sometime.

    First, as you alluded to, Bonnie is a first rate analyst who has been in the "business" a long time. Since the 1980s in fact. She is talented. Her words are precise. And she likely has clients, direct and indirect, in mind. As good as a person she may be, she's human and has to make a living. Her client base probably hasn't changed much over the last 20 years, regardless of her stated affiliations, and neither have her views.

    But Bonnie's different than most in her community. Check to see if she's a full time CSIS employee or if it's an honorific affiliate. I don't know, but it's a relevant question in the world of US policy access and influence. As long as it's known where her funding comes from, and the political predispositions of those funding sources known, then one could better understand her subjective observations. People know Brookings, AEI, Heritage, CATO, and normal CSIS. But maybe not others who operate on the fringes.

    She's got a long history. Loves cross-Strait CBMs, and has been the leader in this scholarly circle that's been promoting this concept for more than a decade. Who could argue against greater confidence and security between both sides of the Taiwan Strait? In fact, alot of well-intentioned people support such a worthy endeavor with deep pockets. But who's going to write something that explains that Beijing's goal is to reduce Taiwan's confidence. Therefore, it seems a little silly to try and pursue CBMs as long as the centerpiece of Beijing's strategy is potential use of force and keep its level of confidence as low as possible. Figuring out a way to convince Beijing to drop use of military force as an option would be an interesting contract....

    Regardless, I doubt Bonnie's had much time, even after 20 years in the business, to spend much time getting a feel for the real world, however one defines it, in either China or Taiwan.

    I think she'd freak out if we took her away from the Far East Plaza in Taipei for an evening out with normal people. Like so many other "scholars" who spend a few days in Taipei and Beijing a few times a year, she lives in a separate reality, and produces what is really a simplistic snapshot that seems satisfactory and what clients like to hear.

    She's not alone though, and shouldn't be singled out. Lots of others like her, and Bonnie's got worthwhile things to say. Just should be balanced against others who don't exist in an ivory tower.

    This leads to observers such as yourself. Someone seems to have slimed you as if you have no right to observe and stand up for issues in Taiwan. As you say, you, like many other "foreigners," do pay taxes. And therefore, you have just as much of a right as anyone here to say how your money in being used in governance. Only issue is that many who do pay taxes don't have the right to vote -- something doesn't seem fair about this, but maybe another subject for later....

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  18. Thanks, anon. There's much to think about in your piece. I think Glaser does great work most of the time. She often says things no one else does...but pieces like this one are frustrating...

    Michael

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