Plenty of words directed at the Beautiful Isle today. First Lee Teng-hui, as so often, commenting in the Japanese press, reported by the trusty CNA:Taiwan's upcoming presidential election is very significant because its outcome will have a profound impact on Taiwan's future, former President Lee Teng-hui was quoted as saying by a Japanese writer.Lee further down coyly announces that he won't endorse either candidate, even though he considers one a disaster for Taiwan's democratization. Yes, he can see the disaster coming, but he won't do a thing about it. Better that he preserve a meaningless appearance of evenhandedness.... it would be great Lee would come out and stump for Hsieh. But this is better than the rumor running around that Lee would back Ma...and he flew all the way to Japan to say this. Couldn't have said it to the Taiwan media in Taiwan....
According to Lee, if the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh, suffered a drubbing in the March 22 election, Taiwan's democratization could be deferred for 20 years.
But if Hsieh could come from behind to achieve an upset win over the main opposition Kuomintang's (KMT's) standard-bearer, Ma Ying-jeou, Lee forecast that the old guards or old forces within both parties would be wiped out, which would eventually lead to a massive generational transition within their ranks.
As to which of the two possible scenarios will emerge, Lee said the results of the latest opinion polls show that Hsieh is gradually catching up, and the trend suggests that the possibility of a Hsieh victory is growing.
Meanwhile China was reminding Taiwan that it be would annexed no matter what. First came this article, which had words of peace emanating from Beijing:
A senior Chinese Communist Party leader has called for an increase in understanding between Taiwan and mainland China.
Jia Qinglin is number four in the leadership of the Communist Party.
People in his position are renowned for threatening Taiwan with annihilation if the island ever declares formal independence.
In a sign of apparent moderation, he has called for "improved mutual understanding" and the promotion of economic, technological and cultural exchanges.
That article on moderation in China was followed immediately by a slew of articles that had China threatening Taiwan again. Google Reader offered:
Taiwan 'will pay' for independence
Independent Online, South Africa - 4 hours ago
Beijing - China on Tuesday warned Taiwan would pay a "heavy price" if a referendum next month on United Nations (UN) membership succeeded, saying peace ...
Chen Shui-bian to pay dear price for desperate throw of dice Xinhua
Taiwan warned over independence BBC News
China Warns Taiwan's Chen Over Agenda Newsday
The BBC notes that the parliamentary spokesman mentioned in the third article made the warnings ahead of a legislative session that opened with Hu Jin-tao making still more threats. A Chinese media organ had the remarks:
"The 'Taiwan independence' activities have run counter to the Chinese nation's strong will to safeguard national unity. Such activities will get nowhere and are doomed to fail," Hu told political advisors attending the first annual full session of the 11th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in Beijing.
Hu, also general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and chairman of the Central Military Commission, observed that the "Taiwan independence" activities have become "the biggest menace to national sovereignty and territorial integrity, the biggest obstacle to the development of cross-Strait relations, and the biggest threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits."
As if in tit for tat for all the times China has warned that Mad Chen Shui-bian will do anything, Vice President Annette Lu warned:
Vice President Annette Lu said yesterday China may invoke its anti-secession law before March 22......
Possibilities cannot be ruled out that China may take "irrational action" to preclude the two referendums on Taiwan's admission to the United Nations, Lu said at a forum organized jointly by the Taiwan-Japan Cultural and Economic Association and the Asian Alliance for Freedom and Democracy in Taipei.
Yes, look for those irrational Chinese to plunge the region into war before March 22, due to referendums they can block with a simple veto in the UN. That's a possibility about as likely as Chen Shui-bian fomenting an incident in the Taiwan Strait. The US Establishment media warned that China's defense budget was on the rise and Taiwan was threatened.
Report: China's Taiwan Buildup Continues
The Associated Press - 3 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — China continues its huge military buildup opposite Taiwan, further pushing the balance of power between the two rivals toward the ...
China says defense budget to rise, warns Taiwan Reuters
China's Army Builds for Reach Past Taiwan, US Says (Update2) Bloomberg
China says defence budget to rise Reuters South Africa
Threats from China? That's just the kind of thing that gets the core DPP voters out....
[Taiwan]
Michael,
ReplyDeleteHow about giving this part of Hu's comments equal time:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/04/content_7716775.htm
"We are ready to have exchange, dialogue, consultation and negotiation with any political parties in Taiwan, as long as they recognize that both sides of the Taiwan Straits belong to one China," Hu stated.
"The negotiation will be conducted on an equal footing with completely open topics -- there is nothing we can't talk about," he added.
In other words, when Ma picks up the phone in May... Beijing will answer.
The Chinese are adept at Taiwan sabre rattling but the serious chances of anything beyond that are mute. China already has the significant Taiwan investment money and nothing means more than that to the basic Chinese mind (on both sides of the strait).
ReplyDeleteHsieh or Ma, I don't really agree that one or the other would promote or hurt Taiwan's democratization. Neither Hsieh nor Ma will revoke direct elections; it's also unlikely that either of them would single-handedly coerce the government into leaning away from pandering specially to big business and other interest groups. Elections are a lip service to democracy--a government that executes policy for the general population is the actual core of democracy, and this is something Taiwan's government is still struggling to do under KMT and DPP.
ReplyDeleteAlso, as shown on the news, Hu Jintao once again asserted the PRC's current position that Taiwan and the mainland belong to One China (not exactly PRC), without specifying that Taiwan be a province or a SAR of the PRC, or that Beijing have legal jurisdiction over Taiwan.
So perhaps "annex" may be an inaccurate term in the politically correct world, whatever suspicions one may have about Beijing's intentions.
CCT, read the sentence before "as long as both sides of the Taiwan Straits belong to one China."
ReplyDeleteIn other words, Hu is saying that they will conduct negotiations "on an equal footing" if Taiwan recognizes it is subordinate to Beijing. And gives up its negotiating position prior to the beginning of talks.
Of course, China could grow up and realize how it could benefit from a free and independent Taiwan, and end its dangerous, expansionist attempt to annex Taiwan.
But somehow I don't think Beijing is going to become rational any time soon.
Michael
So perhaps "annex" may be an inaccurate term in the politically correct world, whatever suspicions one may have about Beijing's intentions.
ReplyDeleteWhere will this ghostly one china be ruled from? And what political rights will Taiwanese have? And can they leave if they don't like it?
We all know what is meant in reality: Taiwan as a satrapy of Beijing.
"Where will this ghostly one china be ruled from?"
ReplyDeleteOne loosely related example that comes to mind is European Union. Something that blurs the definitions of national sovereignty may work for this issue.
Whether the leaders of PRC and ROC have begun to consider things this way is important--I'm sure a growing number already do, as evidenced by part of the KMT as well as the inconsistently changing attitudes of the CCP.
In other words, Hu is saying that they will conduct negotiations "on an equal footing" if Taiwan recognizes it is subordinate to Beijing.
ReplyDeleteBeing intentionally obtuse today?
The phrasing here is not: Taiwan belongs to the People's Republic of China. It is not that Taiwan belongs to the mainland, or that Beijing is the rightful government of Taiwan.
The phrasing here is that both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong equally to this "one China". This is exactly the position the KMT platform is based on, and a huge move away from the PRC's position 5+ years ago.
ReplyDeleteBeing intentionally obtuse today?
No, I'm recalling the "equal footing" of Tibet and Xinjiang. I'm recalling the use of terms like "splittists" and "Chen Shui-bian authorities." Beijing is completely clear it doesn't consider Taiwan an equal. When I see consistent, long-term use of terms like "President", "government" and so on, maybe we can talk about Beijing's changing position.
Only a fool believes one line out of thousands, CCT, or pays no attention to any other concrete behaviors of their foe.
The phrasing here is not: Taiwan belongs to the People's Republic of China. It is not that Taiwan belongs to the mainland, or that Beijing is the rightful government of Taiwan.
That is irrelevant. We know what Hu thinks of who rules the One China: Beijing. He slew thousands of Tibetans to prove it.
It was Tolkien who caught Hu and all his messenger boys, lackeys, and lickspittle followers:
He it was that now rode out, and with him came only a small company of black-harnessed soldiery, and a single banner, black but bearing on it in red the Evil Eye. Now halting a few paces before the Captains of the West he looked them up and down and laughed.
'Is there anyone in this rout with authority to treat with me?' he asked. 'Or indeed with wit to understand me? Not thou at least!' he mocked, turning to Aragorn with scorn. 'It needs more to make a king than a piece of elvish glas, or a rabble such as this. Why, any brigand of the hills can show as good a following!'
Michael
On the other hand, the CCP's sabre rattling rhetoric can only embolden Taiwan activists more. A study at the Uni of Cincinatti found that indirect threats to one's sense of self (or in this case of one’s nation) will cause people to take action to bolster their self-esteem.
ReplyDelete(And I thought that the Chinese pols were going to restrain themselves, due to the fact that last time they threatened Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian was re-elected.)
cct and channing, remember that, according to the UN, the capital of China is in Beijing. And this is exactly what the Chinese would say if the Taiwanese made such a concession as "we are all a part of one China". Why do you think that the official US position is that they "acknowledge" the existence of one China and not that they "accept" the existence of one China. It is because "One China" automatically indicates a China ruled from Beijing. The term is, by nature, not ambiguous. It can therefore not be used as a basis for equal negotiation.
ReplyDeleteYou don't need to be reminded that this is exactly the excuse that Ban Ki Moon used (incorrectly) when he refused the letter of CSB -- incorrectly because no UN resolution specifies that Taiwan is a part of China. Do you think that the lack of such a specification is by accident?
Hu's remarks would be a breakthrough if he said: We are willing to accept the existence of two Chinas as long as you indicate that you are one of them. This would allow the international situation of the Koreas, or of the former Germanys.
Any comparisons to the EU are also not accurate because the EU is an international organisation, and it has been seen as such since its inception. It is not a country. China, however, is. So admitting a belonging to "One China" is an admission of appartenance to a country, no matter how you slice it.
Now had Hu said that he would even welcome the formation of a supranational Chinese Union, then THAT would have been a breakthrough too. But this is not what he said.
What you are doing is reading what you find convenient into Hu's words, which are still very much rooted in the symantics of the last 20 years. This is nothing new. I remember hearing the same thing from at least one of you the last time such a remark was made from the Chinese side. This is not the first time that such a "soft" stance has been made.
Therefore, forgive me if I can't see this as a softening at all. The message is still clear: "As long as you agree with us, we can negotiate anything."
Lee further down coyly announces that he won't endorse either candidate, even though he considers one a disaster for Taiwan's democratization. Yes, he can see the disaster coming, but he won't do a thing about it.
ReplyDeleteThis has to be a joke. Is Ma going to stop free elections if he is elected? Taiwan's democratic process are certainly not in danger, but I can understand that some people feel this way. Democracy in Taiwan is still young. People need to trust in the system!
As for worrying about talks with China, I agree with Michael: Hu's recent comments are garbage. If he wants to hold talks on "equal footing", then he can start by recognizing Taiwan as the sovereign nation it is. Both the KMT and the DPP will not negotiate with China unless this condition is met-this is a fact.
With either Hsieh or Ma as president, Taiwan will remain a sovereign, self-governing country. Neither president will push for independence or reunification in the near future. Hardcore greens need not worry bout Ma and the KMT "selling out Taiwan" (maitai) to China.
Why did he pick 20 years ago, I wonder? Who was president then? Lee himself, and as I recall, it was a time of hope, optimism and steady economic growth. Seems to me Lee is making a subtle jab at the DPP here instead of supporting Hsieh.
ReplyDeleteSurely you contradict yorself here. In an earlier piece you have:
ReplyDelete"it nicely sets up a Chinese military action against Taiwan -- one could easily imagine a suborned officer in the Taiwanese military creating a provocation for China's sake."
By which I read that China could indeed start something. But then:
"look for those irrational Chinese to plunge the region into war before March 22, due to referendums they can block with a simple veto in the UN" (sarcastic)
Unless the first statement was sarcastic as well? ?
"Both the KMT and the DPP will not negotiate with China unless this condition is met-this is a fact."
ReplyDeleteMa has already indicated his willingness to negotiate under the terms of the non-existant 1992 Consensus, Chris, and many in his party, including Papa Lien Chan, are willing to do the same, so they've said. This is a sell-out. Even if the consensus ever had been really reached, it would have been made by a KMT government without the consent of the Taiwanese people. Do you expect them to seek that consent this time around?
People need to trust in the system!
ReplyDeleteYou see, this is the problem. With a KMT dominated leg/ex, they can change the system anytime they want without the public's consent. Just look at the way they are still trying to subvert the referendums as proof. (one of which is their own, how strange is that).
Anyone is dreaming if you think Taiwan will remain sovereign if MA/KMT take the ex branch. This is the cold hard truth. KMT followers spin it anyway you want, but you can't polish turd.
Michael,
ReplyDeleteI'm reasonably sure you've never read any of the documents that define Tibet's relationship to China... or maybe you have, and you still feel justified manufacturing stuff out of your waste-disposal pipe.
As far as the use of Tolkien for interpretation of international affairs... am I the only one that finds that embarrassing?
thomas,
The language out of Beijing was absolutely unambiguous for most of the past 6 decades. Exactly as you said: Taiwan is a part of China; China's capital is in Beijing; there's only one China, and it is the People's Republic of China. Go read the standard texts out there, and they all state precisely this.
The formula the last *5 years*, however, have changed substantially. And Hu Jintao's statement today just confirms this again... the reason I emphasize it is because people are blind to the new terms which will be used during the next round of negotiations.
The door has been opened to the creation of a "supra-government" China, and has been since 2000. Don't be surprised when Ma walks through this door over the next 4-8 years, and more formal discussions begin.
Just speculating here... but in 30-50 years, when this project finally comes to fruition... maybe they'll put the "supra-government" offices in the former ROC capital (and my hometown) of Nanjing. Or, maybe they'll put it somewhere that's not part of Taiwan or mainland: Hong Kong, Kinmen.
Sure, you did not read that Hu proposed a transnational body to contain both mainland China and Taiwan. But you also did not read that Hu specifies that Taiwan need to announce that it belongs to the People's Republic, or that Taiwan relinquish any powers of its governmental bodies to the CCP, as conditions for negotiations.
ReplyDeleteI'm reading literally, and literally means the deliberate omission of terms such as "annex" and "People's Republic." You are extrapolating Hu's statement to mean:
"In order to begin negotiations regarding Taiwan's peaceful future, the leaders in Taipei must first surrender the island-level executive, legislative and judicial powers of the ROC government, and any other political body within Taiwan under any name, to the People's Republic of China as governed by current Chinese Communist Party. All other governmental bodies in Taiwan are to be abolished and replaced by local-level bodies appointed by the sovereign People's Republic."
To some of us, this statement is equivalent, so why didn't Hu use it since the meaning is obvious? Is he being a bit dense too?
Poagao... and there's not steady economic growth today?
ReplyDeleteTaiwan needs a dialogue on globalization, on moving up the value chain (which they are doing, quite well in some industries), not some boneheaded idea that increased trade with China could increase SALARIES. It will undoubtedly increase PROFITS. Just think about the leverage a factory boss has over his workers when moving to China becomes super-convenient and tell me again which direction salaries are going to move in.
Focusing on economic growth is so wrongheaded because there has been good, steady growth these past 6 years.
Anyone is dreaming if you think Taiwan will remain sovereign if MA/KMT take the ex branch. This is the cold hard truth. KMT followers spin it anyway you want, but you can't polish turd.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you suppose the KMT will do then? Turn to the PRC and just give them Taiwan? The DPP can spin it anyway they want, but it makes no sense for the KMT to give up Taiwan's sovereignty. It is not in the best interest of their own party, let alone the people of Taiwan. If Taiwan becomes apart of China, the KMT loses all power and Ma (if he is elected) goes from being a president to a provincial governor. Why would they want to do this?
Like I said, both the KMT and DPP strongly feel the need to maintain Taiwan's sovereignty. Status-quo will continue for the next four years, regardless of who is president.
"The door has been opened to the creation of a "supra-government" China, "
ReplyDeleteSorry. As I said, and as you have undoubtedly noticed, Hu did not open this door at all. He used the same language he has used before. I have already responded to this point.
"You are extrapolating Hu's statement to mean:"
I've extrapolated nothing. "Admit that you are part of One China" is straightforward. The definition of "One China" is straightforward.
Hu has promised nothing new. And guess what. After reading the papers today, nothing more has been said about his supposed offer to Taiwan in the media. This is after scant treatment when he said them originally. I wonder if that is because he actually has said nothing new. Methinks yes.
To both of you, I know the international situation. I have read what he said. You still haven't shown how "Negotiate under our conditions, and you can negotiate anything" is a breakthrough. You were not able to do it following the 17th Party Congress in October when Hu said pretty much what he just said a few days ago, and you are not able to now.
Read Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel, you will find that China has tendency to integrate. Also both Diamond and Galton scientifically find out that productive people always replace unproductive people throughout human history. White American replacing native American, Chinese replacing tibetan, and other minorities.
ReplyDeleteStop kidding yourself for political correctness. Taiwan will be back to China. Tibetan will be replaced. Even whole Africa might be replaced by Chinese just as Galton said.
http://galton.org/letters/africa-for-chinese/AfricaForTheChinese.htm
One anon to another: That's a smear of Jared Diamond, who absolutely does not advocate racism/monoculturalism.
ReplyDeleteHe does point to geographical advantages, but they are not intrinsic racial advantages.
One short example: he tells of how early Viking explorers died in Greenland when very near to them were Inuits that were well adapted to the land and had the technology necessary to survive in such a harsh environment. The problem was they never bothered to go over and ask/trade/buy/learn from them and met them only with hostility.
If Diamond is advocating against any kind of culture or ethnic group, it's those that close themselves off to others thinking that there's nothing to learn from them.