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Thursday, March 20, 2008

Manthorpe, Tibet, Taiwan

Wednesday night I stopped by O'Ginny's, which is in a warren somewhere off of Mingsheng East Road, to listen to Jonathan Manthorpe, author of Forbidden Nation, speak on the election and on Taiwan in general. Manthorpe proved to have a rare knowledge of Taiwan, and was a pleasure to listen to. The food was meh, but the eye candy behind the bar was outstanding. Unfortunately, I can't give you directions because I doubt I could find it again -- it appears to be located in a tesseract that expands in every direction as you walk along it. I think I walked around there for about three hours, but never actually got any nearer to Nanjing E Road.

Manthorpe talked for roughly 45 minutes. Unlike many newsman, Manthorpe was aware that the published polls in the pro-Blue papers are nonsense. He said that people he respected from both parties had told him the election was tight. It's Ma's election to lose, but if he screws up, he could lose.

On Tibet, Manthorpe said that everyone had told him that it would have little effect on the election. He did say it could have an effect if the election is close. My own prediction is that if Hsieh wins, the KMT will immediately blame it on Tibet even though they are saying beforehand that Tibet will have no effect.

One thing about the Tibet issue not being discussed: most discussions of the Tibet-Taiwan relationship have focused on their mutual threat from China. The context, in other words, is the sovereignty issue. But it should be kept in mind that there are millions of Buddhists in Taiwan for whom the Dalai Lama is a revered figure, and thousands of Tibetan Buddhists who might well be affected by events in Tibet. In other words, religion is another point of entry for the Tibet issue into local politics, not just sovereignty. Caveat: many of the Buddhist institutions are pro-KMT, another complicating factor. In Taiwan, politics is never simple, one of the sources of its addictiveness....Hsiao Bi-khim also pointed out another connection in the post below -- opening Tibet to China economically through the railway has simply resulted in greater exploitation of Tibet by Chinese -- an obvious parallel to the One China common market. This is a cogent point that might swing a few votes.

Max Hirsch over at Thirsty Ghosts has an article on the Tibet Factor:

Ma's attack on Wen is hardly novel among politicians here. For the ruling, pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, bashing Beijing is virtually a pastime. But Ma -- considered Beijing's best hope for curbing independence moves by Taipei -- has staked his presidential bid on vows to further cross-strait detente.

Those plans now appear in danger as public outrage here over Beijing's ongoing crackdown in Tibet has forced Ma to mothball his ''China-friendly'' persona. With just three days left before the island's presidential election Saturday, the frontrunner is scrambling to prevent rival Frank Hsieh of the DPP from painting him as a Beijing apologist amid the clampdown.

''At the beginning of Mr. Ma's campaign, he was rarely harsh on China. But because of [Hsieh's] attacks for being soft on the Tibet issue, Ma's had to adjust his strategy,'' said Huang Kwei-bo, a political scientist at National Chengchi University.

''I sense a shift [in Ma's rhetoric],'' Huang said.

Making matters worse were Wen Jiabao's Tuesday comments, which ''forced Mr. Ma's hand,'' he said.

''It was very unwise for Wen to talk about Tibet and Taiwan together -- that will remind people here of China's view of the island as a renegade province,'' he added, referring to Wen's blaming the Dalai Lama for riots by Tibetans and then slamming Taiwan's referenda in the same press conference.
As everyone braces for a probable Ma victory, there's a new line out that Ma and Beijing might not necessarily work with each other as well as people like me believe. Lots of people in the community of Taiwan observers are taking that position. I remain skeptical. Because for all that Ma has criticized Beijing, he hasn't said that Tibet should be independent. At heart, I believe, Ma remains committed to the China-as-Zion theology of the ROC. In any case, the focus on Ma is wrong; if Ma himself ran the KMT, I would have fewer worries -- but the ideologues at the top like Lien Chan, who think of themselves as Chinese and despise Taiwan, are running the show. Ma has never shown any ability to stand up to them. I'm afraid that those betting on a Ma show of strength are trying to build castles out of pudding....

11 comments:

  1. Nice post, sir. I agree the impact appears to be relatively small, maybe a point or two. We'll see just how tight the race is.

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  2. "for all that Ma has criticized Beijing, he hasn't said that Tibet should be independent."

    Not even the Dalai Lama says this. I don't criticise Ma here. What I do criticise him for is the flip-flopping. This is why I don't take any of this stuff about Tibet meaning colder relations between Taiwan and China in the event of a Ma presidency seriously. Ma is just saying what he needs to say to look good before the election.

    He may not lose a lot of votes, but regardless, Hseih is dancing around him with rhetoric. Hsieh's response to Ma's Olympic boycott threat was priceless.

    1) We WANT Taiwan to participate in international events, don't we? It is Beijing that doesn't want Taiwan there.

    2) You are such a flip-flopper Mr. Ma. You've pulled this out of your @$$.

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  3. If the DPP wins and the KMT blames the loss on the Tibetan situation it will be far better than the ridiculous conspiracy they came up with in 2004.

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  4. Dalai Lama also says we need to be realistic, that is what Ma is doing.....

    One hand I agree that we need to stand up for our country, on the other hand, I don't want to see my country faces any damages or bad outcomes , in terms of economy and national security.

    As China's dominate power in Asian' economy and political situation. Will anyone provide more peaceful and useful ideas? I don't think to blame Ma that he does not do such and such for my country, well, neither does Hseih.

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  5. tibetgate
    lama-gate
    Lhashagate

    those damn dpp dirty tricks

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  6. I thought Ma's Olympic boycott threat was pretty flexible with plenty of if, but, when in circumstances.

    if the Tibet situation worsen, even the Americans and European Union will do a boycott.

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  7. The problem Alice is that many Taiwanese don't realise that

    1) Ma can't deliver on every promise he is promising because he has promised something to everyone.

    2) Ma is proposing a common market that would ruin Taiwan's domestic economy without giving it more access to the Chinese economy than it already has.

    3) Much of what Ma proposes can only be negotiated at the cost of soverignty, which may not affect Taiwan in the next eight years but would seriously harm the island after that, due to the military imbalance in the strait, and the fact that Ma plans to negotiate based on the 1992 consensus, which would give the PRC a basis to make its land claims.

    As usual in Taiwan, short term benefits trump long-term missteps.

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  8. Alice,

    China is a bully. Look at what it's doing to Tibet, it could very well to the same to Taiwan.

    There's no doubt that "China's dominate power" with the economy and politics. But the answer to that isn't to bow down to fear and bend over for them and do what they ask you to do, it's to find new economic partners and political allies to offset China's power.

    I don't know why so many people think "it's China or nothing". There's plenty of other countries in the world to do business with, to build cheap labor factories, and to ally with AGAINST China.

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  9. Michael:"My own prediction is that if Hsieh wins, the KMT will immediately blame it on Tibet even though they are saying beforehand that Tibet will have no effect."

    Oh no, man. KMT will blame it on DPP and Hsieh, otherwise there will be no ground for their post-election riot.

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  10. Michael:As everyone braces for a probable Ma victory, there's a new line out that Ma and Beijing might not necessarily work with each other as well as people like me believe.

    To my knowledge, Hsieh never said harsh words at the level of personal attack against China leader like Ma did to Wen Jia-Bao.

    Hsieh has long been known to have much high EQ, and is more capable of dealing with conflicting forces than any politician.

    On the other hand, Ma is extremely incompetent on dealing with conflicts. He is either caving in easily, or going too far on the other extreme by pushing opponents without giving any slack(like what his reaction is in Tibet issue).

    You can campare how they run their campaign. Ma paves his road of campaign with continuous apologies and flip-flopping, yet pan-blue can hardly find any flaw in Hsieh.

    Ma has no principle, and therefore has no idea where he should stand in a confrontation. In that sense, it's far more dangerous to Taiwan if Ma becomes the president.

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  11. By they way, there is a petition to support Dalai Lama's call in Avaaz.org, http://www.avaaz.org/en/tibet_end_the_violence/19.php and other links in relation to what happen in Tibet from many medias (detail see my blog), you may like to pass on to your friends.

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