Will Hsieh win? Everyone I talk to says exactly the same thing: no (in fact the question is usually met with laughter). Why? I spent this evening conversing with a longtime democracy activist with deep connections into the DPP, and the person says what everyone else is saying: the Hsieh camp is running an awful campaign. According to this person, many in the DPP were angry that Hsieh distanced himself from the legislative campaign, and blame him because they did not prevent the KMT from getting 2/3 of the seats. Apparently nobody in the DPP owns a calculator, and they actually believed they were going to win more than 1/3 of the seats. Wish I'd done my calculations before the election....As a result, only a portion of the DPP is working for Hsieh. UPDATE: Keep in mind that discussions of what is happening inside the DPP are discussions that take place in Taipei about things that happen in Taipei. Does the great mass of the citizenry outside the capital know or care?I did see some great posters of Hsieh today, but didn't have a chance to get a pic. But finally, the campaign is becoming visible....
There is less than a month to go now, and we are where we were in Feb of 2000 and Feb of 2004: nobody thinking the DPP would win at this point. Tomorrow is the debate between Hsieh and Ma. Can Hsieh turn it around? Everyone seems to think he is a better speaker than Ma -- which actually gives Ma the advantage, since he need merely hold his own.....
[Taiwan]
Frank Hsieh is certainly running a crappy campaign, but the naysayers are wrong. Here's why:
ReplyDelete1) the LY travesty has put the fear of Mazu into the DPP base. They will not stay home and punish their party this time.
2) Undecided voters. I would estimate that at least 30-40% of voters are still undecided. Many of them are taking to heart (somewhat) one of the DPP's few relevant talking points in this campaign: complete control of the government by the KMT may not be such a good idea, given the KMT's legacy.
3) students will not vote. There are about two million of these. They are decidedly pro-KMT, unlike the previous two elections. However, they are almost entirely apathetic and turned off to politics, largely b/c the media has exclusively focused on mudslinging (green cards, informants, stock trading wives) rather than the issues most directly affecting these kids. In this sense, Hsieh's crappy campaign will help him here. Ma needs them much more than Frank Hsieh does.
3) young professional vote: every one thinks this is a given in the Ma column. He will win it, but not as conclusively as many think. Ma is promising everyone the moon, and this voting group knows where that fiscal burden will eventually fall.
Hsieh, on the other hand, comes across as far more fiscally responsible, while at the same time recognizing on which side of the bread (read Strait) Taiwan's economy is buttered. He also has some pretty good ideas that will help people without breaking the bank.
4) the debate. Only the first one matters, because that is the one everyone will watch, and probably the only one the undecideds will watch. Ma has improved in this area, but if Frank Hsieh lays off the green card tomorrow and actually sticks to policy, he'll win. See #3.
So my prediction is a close result, but Frank Hsieh will win it by 2-3%. It will not be because of the green card. Nobody in this election whose vote matters gives a rat's ass about Ma's green card.
That's interesting. And much better than your previous postings. I like it when you talk sensibly. Even if you don't agree with me, why can't you make all your comments like this one?
ReplyDeleteI have Hsieh winning in a close one too, at present, and I see no reason to change that. Much of the discussion of the Hsieh campaign is discussion that takes place in Taipei about things that happen in Taipei. It matters less out here in the Real Taiwan that Hsieh runs a crappy campaign, because all that is visible is the posters anyway....
I think much will hinge on the debate tomorrow too.
Michael
we are where we were in Feb of 2000 and Feb of 2004
ReplyDeleteIn 2000 there were two Pan-Blue candidates. In 2004 you and others said that Lien threw away the lead, rather than it being the case he did everything he could but Chen did better. In 2008 there is one Pan-Blue candidate and no guarantee that Ma will do anything so stupid as to lose his advantage.
As usual I'm not suggesting Hsieh cannot win. But he doesn't have the benefits Chen did in 2000 and 2004, so to draw links between them and now isn't appropriate.
Hsieh needs to figure out how to get the young vote. Everyone college student I talk to mumbles something about Ma being a "different" kind of candidate (yeah, he leaves all the dirty campaigning and attacking to his dogs and the party asset attack ads).
ReplyDeleteHe's actually a much more natural fit, just needs to figure out packaging.
(yeah, he leaves all the dirty campaigning and attacking to his dogs and the party asset attack ads).
ReplyDeletethis is utter bollocks. politics is politics, but anyone with even an ounce of objectivity would argue that the Ma camp has run the cleaner campaign thus far. From proof, just look to the talk shows. Even on pan-Blue, they are talking about the issues raised about Ma at a ratio approaching 2-1.
Let me make one thing clear: no one pays attention to anything Cho Yi says, even us blues.
Frank Hsieh has to this point focused entirely on the green card issue (and also that nonsense about Ma's wife, Ma's sister-even dredging up her college entrance exams from 19-freakin'68)); oh and Ma's daughter getting in to some exclusive school.
IMO, this is a serious tactical error by Hsieh-as I've stated, I think he is actually stronger on the issue that matters to everyone here: the economy. But the psychological blow of the LY defeat has irreparably tainted the DPP's mindset-they are in panic mode, and even they believe the polls this time.
If Frank Hsieh loses, it will be because of this campaign he is running. The danger is he will sling out so much shite that people will not see the silk. It is not just the students that are becoming disgusted with politics-so are the legions of professionals.
They already lean towards Ma, but Hsieh could convince enough of them to vote his way, that combined with his base, and the traditional underreported/undeclared supporters the pollsters always miss, he could squeak by at about 2%.
I'll be closely watching today's debate. If he does well enough, maybe his handlers will feel confident enough to re-direct his campaign. It's his only hope.
But then again, part of me is hoping he does not. I am True Blue after all ;>)
When people ask me who I think will win the election I always say nobody expected A-bian to win in 2000 or 2004. Similarly I don't think we should write of Frank Hsieh's chances in 2008.
ReplyDeleteI am looking to see what happens in Taipei on 228. A big turnout could see the momentum turn for the DPP. A lacklustre event will not bode well for the election result.
President Chen win the 2000 election because of blues split votes. In 2004, 319 ( which attracted the sympathy votes ) + the all important incumbent factor gave Chen another win.
ReplyDeleteI think people are forgetting how important the incumbent factor is in any election. Chen has the complete resources to edge a win back then.
Hsieh will suffer from the ideology that some voters might want a real change of govt after 2 terms by the same party. simple thinking, nothing more.
I look at the fact perhaps 2004 was a one off and DPP has never got more than 4 million votes in any elections previously.
what are the chances of DPP getting another 6 million + votes to win the 2008 presidential race.
In 2004, 319 ( which attracted the sympathy votes ) + the all important incumbent factor gave Chen another win.
ReplyDeleteThat is a myth. The reality is that all the polls had Chen either even or slightly ahead of Lien. It had no effect on the election.
I look at the fact perhaps 2004 was a one off and DPP has never got more than 4 million votes in any elections previously.
Incorrect, for Chen got 4.97 million in 2000.
what are the chances of DPP getting another 6 million + votes to win the 2008 presidential race.
Depends on turnout. If turnout exceeds 80% they will get more than six million, hopefully around 6.5 million.
Michael
True Blue, thanks for your many excellent comments here.
ReplyDeleteMichael
I also think Hsieh's campaign has been crap. The script has gone something like this: (1) shut up and take a back seat to Chen before the legislative election; (2) with two months to go, start slinging mud like it's going out of style and spend every single press conference you hold talking about Ma Ying-jeou instead of yourself; and (3) repeat step two ad nauseum until nobody has no idea where you stand on the issues because you've used all your media exposure like an idiot.
ReplyDeleteMichael,
ReplyDeleteYou did choose a couple of great pics to illustrate the publicity campaign behind Ma. Have you seen the bus ad saying: "You and your family have suffered so much these last years..." and presenting Ma as the rescuer? It's one for the books.
I have been trying to figure out which ads on TV are from the greens. Most of what I see has a minute blue sun but little identifies them as blue, except the punch line. Really sneaky.
more correctly, MA will win. that call is too easy.
ReplyDeletehowever, all the reasons for Ma winning that have been stated thus far are wrong. it has nothing to do with how Hsieh has campaigned.