My thanks to a commenter who provided links to a recent RAND study of a hypothetical US-China conflict over Taiwan. The Air Force Times has a summary:The democratic Republic of China, commonly called Taiwan — which America backs and the communist People’s Republic of China considers part of its territory — frequently irritates Chinese leaders with calls for greater independence from the mainland. But while the American military mulls its options, Chinese missiles hit runways, fuel lines, barracks and supply depots at U.S. Air Force bases in Japan and South Korea. Long-range warheads destroy American satellites, crippling Air Force surveillance and communication networks. A nuclear fireball erupts high above the Pacific Ocean, ionizing the atmosphere and scrambling radars and radio feeds.
This is China’s anti-U.S. sucker punch strategy.
It’s designed to strike America’s military suddenly, stunning and stalling the Air Force more than any other service. In a script written by Chinese military officers and defense analysts, a bruised U.S. military, beholden to a sheepish American public, puts up a small fight before slinking off to avoid full-on war.
This strategic outlook isn’t hidden in secret Chinese documents. It’s printed in China’s military journals and textbooks. And for much of last year, Mandarin literates and defense experts — working for the Santa Monica, Calif.-based Rand Corp. on an Air Force contract — combed through a range of Chinese military sources.
They emerged with “Entering the Dragon’s Lair,” a lengthy report on how the Chinese People’s Liberation Army would likely confront the U.S. military and how the Air Force in particular can brace itself. In many cases, the theoretical enemy nation China’s officers discuss in these scenarios isn’t explicitly named but is unmistakably the U.S.
“These aren’t war plans,” said report co-author Roger Cliff, a former Defense Department strategist and China military specialist who spoke to Air Force Times from Taiwan. “This is the military talking to itself. It’s not designed for foreigners or even China’s general public to read.”
In other words, China's military thinks it can make a surprise attack on US bases -- on US territory and Japanese territory! -- and then the US will stumble around blindly and sheepishly let them have Taiwan. And somehow Japan will mysteriously not retaliate, and neither will South Korea. Say what? That's so dumb, I have some trouble believing it. Yet the recent Kitty Hawk affair, when the military and the ministries were on totally different pages, lends some credence to the idea... Paul M. Fussell once observed of World War II:
"For most Americans, the war was about revenge against the Japanese, and the reason the European part had to be finished first was so that maximum attention could be devoted to the real business, the absolute torment and destruction of the Japanese. The slogan was conspicuously Remember Pearl Harbor. Nobody ever shouted or sang Remember Poland."
Does history repeat itself? Read the Air Force summary:
China’s experts concede its army would lose a head-on fight, with one senior colonel comparing such a scenario to “throwing an egg against a rock.” Instead, the Chinese would attempt what Rand calls an “anti-access” strategy: slowing the deployment of U.S. forces to the Pacific theater, damaging operations within the region and forcing the U.S. to fight from a distance.
That was the Japanese plan too -- defeat the US Navy in the opening punch or a later decisive battle, then use diplomacy to end the war. Only the US didn't play ball -- it opted for unconditional surrender and the destruction of the Japanese empire. What do you think will happen if China launches a surprise attack on US bases.
Good thing China is a force for stability, eh?
To read the entire document, the links are on the RAND website.
[Taiwan] [US] [China]
Interesting. As you said, so much of a stretch and misanalysis on the Chinese side that you have to wonder how real or serious this could be.
ReplyDeleteYes, I have heard this line of thinking before. It is so unbelievably stupid. Sure China COULD do all of these things. And these things may hinder US efforts to get to Taiwan in time to avoid the island being overrun. But by pre-emptively attacking US and Japanese forces, the PRC would certainly draw them into a war. The idea is to keep the US out of a war, not to ensure they enter it later, and with more determination.
ReplyDeleteEven assuming such an event happened 20 years from now, when China's armed forces will be quite strong, the strategy would be dumb from a Mutually Assured Destruction standpoint.
I once read that the Pentagon has "plans" in place to attack many countries, but that these plans were mostly just "what if" ruminations and would never see the light of day. "Yeah, what if the UK suddenly makes a sneak attack on Washington to defeat the revolution once and for all?" The Chinese almost certainly do the same thing...
Any serious suspicion that China is attempting to prepare for military confrontation with a superpower is, in a word, absurd. It makes for good entertainment.
ReplyDeleteYes, I have serious trouble believing that a surprise attack on US bases on US territory is a possible Chinese move. I don't think they are really that stupid.
ReplyDeleteMichael
The problem with the article is that it confuses the existence of a capability in the Chinese military with the PLA's ability to achieve certain goals.
ReplyDeleteFor example, China can theoretically destroy US satellites, but it would not realistically be able to take out enough of them to make it difficult for the US to respond. There's an interesting article on this here:
http://tinyurl.com/24sjmo
On another front, yes China has long-range missiles - but not enough of them. If it wanted to attack enough US bases it would need to use nuclear warheads to actually cripple US forces. And of course, once it had pushed the red button, Washington would respond in kind. If China used conventional warheads, not enough damage would be done - they're hardly precision-guided weapons.
Also, as Michael correctly says, an attack on South Korean/Japanese soil would provoke a response from those governments. They might not directly join a war against China, but they would certainly help the US and offer it support.
Yes, I have serious trouble believing that a surprise attack on US bases on US territory is a possible Chinese move. I don't think they are really that stupid.
ReplyDeleteI think it's a threat designed to encourage the US not to support Taiwan. Many Chinese do believe they could do enough damage (much as the Japanese thought) to make a difference. Maybe the Chinese government might decide in an act of desperation, having decided to attack Taiwan, that it would be better to try than just launch the invasion with intact US forces ready to counter-strike.
More credible (in regards to the chance of it happening) is waiting to see whether the US would actually get involved and then trying to keep it at bay. But China's ability to do that would be limited to the use of submarines and anti-ship missiles.
Yes, I would follow the latter strategy of refusing to provoke the US, along with a propaganda drive designed to show that Taiwan had provoked the move.
ReplyDeleteMichael
raj,
ReplyDeleteThe link you provide on China's anti-satellite capabilities seems extremely flawed.
Even if it destroyed 16 satellites, China could still only interrupt GPS over the Straits for about eight hours.
This is nonsense. You don't need to destroy nearly that many satellites to permanently interrupt GPS usage. GPS receivers need line-of-sight to 4 satellites simultaneously to calculate coordinates; wiping out (at most) one of every 4 would be sufficient to disable GPS until replacement satellites could be launched.
This means at *most* 8 satellites out of the constellation must be destroyed, and probably far less, since I doubt all satellites in the constellation pass over east Asia.
As far as destroying lower orbit military observation satellites... that's a far lower priority. Eliminating the US arsenal of precision weaponary goes a long way towards erasing a force multiplier that'd otherwise have placed the PLA in a deep hole.
More to follow in following post.
Now, as far as the "audacity" of China facing the US in a military war...
ReplyDeleteWelcome to the 20th century, folks.
China has fought 3 cold+hot shooting wars with the United States (or proxies) since the end of World War II. The PLA wasn't afraid to fight the United States and United Nations in Korea, and there's no reason to think it'd too timid to do so again.
South Korea's military involvement will be very limited; a) it's military capabilities are limited, and b) it has other strategic concerns (namely North Korea). Japan will likely be drawn into the war, but limited Japanese involvement has largely been a given since day one.
The purpose of such an attack on the United States isn't to intimidate the American public/military. The purpose would be to buy sufficient time for the PLA to conquer Taiwan without US interference, a time period which is typically measured in the days/weeks.
The United States would then face the option of forcing an amphibious landing on occupied Taiwan thousands of miles from American shores, and/or making domestic-satisfying noise (sanctions + boycotts + whatever) that don't change the reality on the ground.
This isn't a replay of War in the Pacific; China's foreign policy objectives are obvious and consistent, and they don't extend beyond Taiwan. (Contrast with Japan's war to "liberate" all of Asia from European influence.) Nor is it even a replay of Iraq/Kuwait, where vital American economic interests would be at harm.
Will the United States send hundreds of thousands of American boys for no strategic purpose, just to liberate Taiwan? Well, thankfully, as long as cross-strait affairs move in the present direction, we might never have to find out.
ReplyDeleteThe United States would then face the option of forcing an amphibious landing on occupied Taiwan thousands of miles from American shores, and/or making domestic-satisfying noise (sanctions + boycotts + whatever) that don't change the reality on the ground.
China could achieve the same thing w/o a damning surprise attack. In fact, given the likely win by the Dems in '08, I think we can look forward to even greater cooperation on Taiwan.
Michael
"Now, as far as the "audacity" of China facing the US in a military war..."
ReplyDelete"Will the United States send hundreds of thousands of American boys for no strategic purpose, just to liberate Taiwan? "
It isn't a question of the audacity of the Chinese. It is one of vengeance from the Americans. Nobody here has said that China would not have the temerity to conduct a surprise attack. The point is that conducting that attack would be too far from their interests to be imaginable.
Even with a much stronger military in the coming years, China will continue to have social problems at least through the 21st Century. An aging population, fuel shortages, water shortages, pollution, gender imbalance, corruption (development hasn't cleaned up corruption in Taiwan, after all), etc. These are not fertile conditions to support a protracted war against a well-armed opponent, nuclear or otherwise.
Americans would seek vengeance if attacked, especially by a power that people already mistrust. The war would no longer be about Taiwan. And the Japanese might well follow suit. And what do you think the reaction of the Europeans would be? Certainly not war, but they would probably lead a huge economic hiccough. Even if China won, it would be a pyrrhic victory. They know this. Would Chinese have the "audacity"? Certainly. But as long as the central government is calling the shots, it is doubtful they would act that way.
Now what is possible is that some wingnut within the military, acting without orders from Beijing, might do something stupid. He might think along your lines, cctang. This is why the US can't overlook the potential of such a situation. It could happen. It just wouldn't happen by anyone who can analyse the situation rationally.
For China to win a military conflict, they need to have already convinced the world that Taiwan is a domestic issue, and then keep the US and Japan out of it. Unfortunately, they seem to be doing a good job.
In case of war, Taiwan will be the biggest loser.
ReplyDeleteIn case of war, Taiwan will be the biggest loser.
ReplyDeleteTaiwan is a part of China, remember? Wasting fuel reserve and all other resources over a tiny piece of land that before and throughout the days of colonization has always been a land rife with conflicts internal and external would only create a temptation too great to resist for all other powers interested in China's momentary weakness. Not to mention that using such Pearl Harbor strategy bordering on yi-yin fiction would at the very least certainly get oversea Chinese lynched.
"Taiwan is a part of China, remember? Wasting fuel reserve and all other resources over a tiny piece of land that before and throughout the days of colonization has always been a land rife with conflicts internal and external"
ReplyDeleteAnd who caused all of those conflicts? The Chinese when they moved in on several occasions. The aborigines were quite happy on their own, you know. Perhaps the Japanese a little later, although, despite their brutality, they at least made the island prosper where previous waves of Chinese could not. I see few better reasons to celebrate Taiwan's unique status as a country that is coming into its own than you have just cited, anonymous. I am often shocked at how little apologists of China who try to stake out Taiwan's Chineseness really understand about the island's history.
As for you zyzyx, I am shocked. I actually agree with you on something. Taiwan would probably be the biggest loser, and is currently the biggest loser too because it is forced to constantly throw its fate in a basket that is the prize of a tug of war match between powers.
I highly doubt that in today's era of superpower republics that a military exploitation of a "weakened" China can be remotely likely.
ReplyDeleteChina's military power is already the subject of worldwide analysis and given the importance placed on the economy, I doubt a decaptitation-style invasion would be relevant to an already strained national defense system.
I have no comment on lynching in overseas Chinese communities. Holding Huaqiao responsible for an executive action in China is bordering on fantasy.
Worst. Warplan. Ever. No more than someone's fantasy that may have been created as a thinking exercise in the PLO.
ReplyDeletePLA, that is.
ReplyDeleteYou are all wrong. For our new imbecile President 'Barack Hussein Obama' will foresake the people of Taiwan and allow China take the island without reprisal or reprimand.
ReplyDelete