The international media frequently report that KMT Presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou is the 'frontrunner' with a huge lead in all the polls -- though they never report that "the polls" are actually polls from pro-Blue papers. Today ESWN posted a poll that is very indicative of how stupid the pro-Blue polling is here. ESWN writes:[Permalink] Taiwan By The Numbers (01/01/2008) (UDN, CDNews, HanReporter) (Common Weath magazine; 1,090 persons age 18 or over interviewed by telephone from December 19 to 23)
Q. If the presidential election were held tomorrow, whom would you vote for?
46.2%: Ma Ying-jeou
12.4%: Frank Hsieh
22.6%: Undecided
12.0%: Will not vote
1.5%: Will cast null ballot
5.3%: Don't know/refused to answer
In 2000, the total pro-Blue vote was 61% to Chen's 39%. In 2004 the two sides split evenly at 50%. Yet this poll has Ma with nearly a fourfold dominance over Hsieh among declared voters -- even if all the 22% undecided broke for Hsieh, Ma would still win by a huge margin -- like the margin that Frank Hsieh was defeated at in the pro-Blue stronghold of Taipei, 55-40 -- yet the rest of the nation is not a pro-Blue stronghold! Clearly this poll makes no sense at all in light of previous election numbers or known voter behavior. Its purpose, like that of similarly nutcase pro-Blue polls, is to influence, not inform, international discourse on the elections.
[Taiwan]
Michael,
ReplyDeleteSomething I still don't understand: If in 2000 the total blue vote was 61% to Chen's 39%, and this year there don't seem to be any factors splitting the blue vote (something Hsieh was counting on in the mayoral election), how does Hsieh win in 2008, even if the polls aren't to be believed? I know you have discussed your reasons for a Hsieh victory before, but this is one aspect I still don't understand.
You wrote:
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Its purpose, like that of similarly nutcase pro-Blue polls, is to influence, not inform, international discourse on the elections.
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Another purpose is to "justify" the "chaos" (read "riots") that the pan-blues threaten every time they face a democratic election. For example:
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* February 26, 2004: An editorial in the Taiwan News reminds us that James Soong (宋楚瑜) once said that the "complexities" of collecting and casting three ballots will inevitably spark election conflicts and "riots." (Sound familiar? Didn't they riot anyway?)
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Tim Maddog
Why do we never see any "sensible" polls from the Pan-Green media groups? Don't they carry out and publish polls?
ReplyDeleteThe Blue vote wasn't split in 2004 either, but Chen still took 50% of the total vote. There is a tight balance everywhere except in Taipei, where one is constantly bombarded with pro-Blue talking points.
ReplyDeleteHsieh could lose -- I downgraded his chances when Chen became DPP Chairman -- but whatever the current odds are, Ma does not have nearly 4 times the support Hsieh does. I have no idea what a really well done poll would look like, but 48 to 12 is obviously insane, unless no previous election means anything. Note that Hsieh improved the DPP's score in Taipei, and that Chen Chu eked out a win in Kaohsiung. Clearly Hsieh is a very viable candidate if he can score 40 in Taipei....
Michael
Could someone please tell me why I never see "unbiased" polls from the pro-Green newspapers in publications like the Taipei Times or Taiwan News that show what the "real" polling is?
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying polls such as these mentioned are correct, but if they're so wrong why don't the other media groups churn out their own polls to at least present another side to the story? The only polls I ever see are from UDN and the like - and no I don't just read the international media.
Raj, I wish I knew why we can't find any green polls so far, but if history tells us anything, it's that we shouldn't believe the pan-blue polls. Check out these two videos I uploaded to YouTube comparing the pre-mayoral election polls with the actual results:
ReplyDelete1) Pan-blue media surveys about Taipei election all wrong
2) Pan-blue media surveys about Kaohsiung election all wrong
This Wikipedia page needs some serious updating if anybody finds any non-blue polls to add there. The numbers on that page now (via China Times, UDN, Global Views, and the KMT themselves -- as if that's any different) will not do.
Tim Maddog
I wasn't arguing that Hsieh isn't a viable candidate. I had a feeling he would do better in Taipei than people were predicting. Part of that feeling had to do with the crowds I saw around him, usually glimpsed in passing, but still struck me a sizable and hopeful, at a time when people (at least in Taipei) were writing the DPP off in the wake of the red shirt rebellion and a series of recall attempts. You could also get a sense that he would be a viable candidate on the night of the Taipei mayoral election from his headquarters after he lost, and witnessing the large crowd that was chanting in unison: "Hsieh for President!" I was just asking based on the numbers you mentioned. I also don't buy 48 to 12 kind of numbers. Twelve percent just seems comical.
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