Dangers of Taiwan election? Safe Sex?

Several people pointed me to this article in the Jakarta Post entitled "The perennial danger of a general election in Taiwan." It's the usual farrago of pro-China, pro-KMT nonsense. I replied to it two days ago, and suddenly the link now goes to an article about condoms and safe sex. Fortunately Google Cache still has a copy. Here is it for your enjoyment...

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The perennial danger of a general election in Taiwan

Jusuf Wanandi, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Come 2008 it will be election time again in Taiwan. In January there will be a general election to elect new members of parliament, and in March a presidential election to elect a new president.

The presidential election in Taiwan is always critical for the peace and stability of the East Asian region, and one can almost expect that in the coming election there might yet be another drama, as Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) may resort to dangerous tactics in order to win.

During the campaigning period of the previous presidential election there was an attempt on Chen Shui-bian's life which he miraculously escaped. There was no clear story about how he managed to do so. Chen not only survived the attempt on his life, he also won the close elections, in large part due to that political gimmick. That showed how mature democracy is in Taiwan, in addition to the regular chair-throwing episodes in its parliament.

For the coming election, Chen has come up with another political gimmick, i.e. a referendum on Taiwan's membership of the U.N., not as the Republic of China, or the ROC as it used to be, but as the Republic of Taiwan. Bringing up the issue coincides with the presidential election in March 2008.

Obviously it is designed to win the election, because through a referendum the DPP's supporters and members, as well as pro-independence sympathizers, will be lured to vote for the DPP candidate if they want to see Taiwan admitted into the UN.

The Kuomintang (KMT) and its presidential candidate, Ma Jin-jeou, are simply caught in this DPP referendum initiative as they can not outright reject the referendum appeal lest they be accused of being against Taiwan's admission to the UN. To counter that, the KMT has proposed another referendum on Taiwan's UN membership under the Republic of China. It is an effort to split the vote to prevent the DPP from getting half plus one of the 16.8 million votes needed to win the referendum.

The DPP supposedly holds four million votes from their members and supporters, and still needs another four millions plus from swing voters to win. With the counter referendum initiative of the KMT, it will be harder for the DPP to win the referendum.

However, to put it in a regional perspective, what is so important about a democratic and innocuous act such as a referendum that it can destabilize peace and stability in the region?

It is important, and anyone who is concerned about peace, stability and development in East Asia, especially the ASEAN countries and also other parts of the world, should not condone or support a DPP leadership that is so irresponsible and obsessed by short-sighted personal or group interests just to win elections and stay in power by whatever means. This reckless political gimmick will not only impact on the across the straits population, but also seriously endanger peace, stability and development in East Asia.

When the DPP is playing around with referendum initiative, it in fact has crossed the red line of the status quo as has been accepted by China, the U.S. and the international community.

It might seem democratic from the outside to have a referendum, but if it is going to create instability in East Asia and possible cross-straits conflict then there is something wrong with it. The DPP should embrace other positive means available such as negotiations based on common interest and principles. The People's Republic of China, U.S. and ASEAN countries would consider Chen Shui-bian's move to be changing the status quo and opening a dangerous avenue if pursued unilaterally.

It is above all a political gimmick to win one presidential election, and probably to pursue changing of the constitution and of the status quo. The attempt to become a UN member is a mere political statement, as it is obvious that it will never become a reality, all things considered.

In this respect, through the 17th Party Congress last October, the Chinese leadership has reacted with restraint and responsibility. It has promised to use soft power in its relations with Taiwan as long as the red line of de jure independence is not crossed by the DPP. It also reiterated the four-point principles of President Hu Jintao, which primarily constitute a peaceful resolution to the cross-straits problem.

There are more reasons than one why ASEAN countries should not remain quiet and indifferent to Chen Shui-bian's irresponsible gimmick, and they must make it clear that any attempt to change unilaterally the status quo in cross-straits relations must not be condoned. It is of ultimate importance to keep peace, stability and development in East Asia, which is not only in the interest of the region but also of the world at large.

The writer is vice chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.

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It's the usual KMT line -- which I pointed out in my response, citing the pre-election polls that showed the race close with Chen ahead (to refute the propaganda about the arranged assassination) -- and I added some text pointing out that China's drive to annex Taiwan stems from the same source that also led it to slyly attempt to claim the Natunas Islands, which are Indonesian, back in the 1990s......

[Taiwan]