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Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Why Hsieh Will Win

There's a widespread perception that Ma Ying-jeou is the frontrunner in the 2008 Presidential race. This is fed by the constant flow of polls that appear in the pro-Blue media that have Ma ahead of Hsieh by light-years. Such polls exist to shape discourse, not to provide information for it.

So let's take a moment, dust off our thinking caps, and imagine why Frank Hsieh will defeat Ma Ying-jeou in the 2008 Presidential election on the Beautiful Isle.

Experience -- Ma has never run in a contested election against a competent opponent who had a chance to beat him. His only "election" victories came in Taipei, where a Blue wig on a stick is certain to win, and the landslide election to KMT chairman. He was appointed head of the RDEC, and appointed Minister of Justice. Hsieh, by contrast, was elected legislator and Taipei city councillor. He won a tough race in Kaohsiung. More importantly, Hsieh has lost two elections, the 1996 Presidential election, where he was the Veep candidate, and the 2006 Taipei mayoral election. The experience of loss is as important as victory in teaching candidates what it takes to win. And Hsieh has already competed at this level. Moreover, Hsieh has contested elections in both the north and the south. Ma has never been elected outside Taipei. Take a look at their respective backgrounds:

Ma: failed the bar
Hsieh: human rights lawyer

Ma: Minster of Justice
Hsieh: Premier

Ma: no deliberative background
Hsieh: Taipei City Councilor

Ma: no deliberative background
Hsieh: Legislator

Ma: Mayor of Taipei
Hsieh: Mayor of Kaohsiung

Ma: Chairman, KMT
Hsieh: Chairman, DPP

Ma: head, RDEC
Hsieh: no similar experience

Ma: no prior national election experience
Hsieh: Veep candidate, 1996

Ma: no media experience
Hsieh:Talk show host, TVBS

Ma: servant of authoritarian regime
Hsieh: opponent of authoritarian regime

The result? Hsieh has that fire in the belly. Ma....has nice hair.

Economy -- Oh yeah. It's rolling right now. Stock market at 7 year highs. Unemployment falling gently over the long term. Exports at record levels and likely to continue as the China market continues to boom. The income equality issue isn't going to be solved any time soon, but if unemployment trends continue, Ma is facing a serious problem running on the economy. Ma's pick of Siew as Vice President was a tactical error -- it essentially locks him into running on the economy (Siew is a technocrat with broad respect but no broad appeal). Ma should have announced he would make Siew his econ czar if elected, and then picked someone young and interesting to be his Veep.

As the advocate of complete opening to China, Ma's policy runs into one of the underlying pillars of support for the DPP's cautious China policy. Chen Shui-bian, speaking on the issue of admitting Chinese students here, observed:


"Don't be naive and think that it is simply a cross-strait educational exchange. Once you allow a small crack in the system, a giant gash will soon follow. Opening Taiwan to Chinese students and professors will only have an adverse effect on job opportunities for local citizens," the president stressed.

Every Taiwanese knows that across the Strait are hordes of unemployed Chinese who have no families here and can work for half of what a Taiwanese can. The working class already sees its wages falling in real terms, and knows that foreign labor is here to keep their own wages down. When people feel threatened economically, they tend to vote nationalistically. And voting "nationalist" in Taiwan means casting a pro-Taiwan vote.

Electioneering -- The DPP knows how to run and win elections. They got Chen Shui-bian to victory in 2000 and 2004, when everyone said it was impossible to do so. Feiren pointed out to me the other day that Hsieh has a cadre of volunteers who were out electioneering on the last night before the Taipei mayoral election, even though he had no chance of winning. Ma has nothing like that. It is true that the DPP's local level networks are not as extensive as those of the KMT, but the KMT also does not appear to know how to translate its presence at the local level into victory at the national level.

Enmity -- Ma is disliked by the KMT Party Machine politicians like Speaker of the Legislature Wang Jyn-ping and Chairman for Life Lien Chan. In the chairmanship election two years ago none of the party elites supported Ma. He is also disliked by the Taiwanese legislators in the KMT, the so-called "southern legislators," who are grumbling that he is displacing them in party power circles and in the legislature. Many of those legislators have farm and irrigation association backgrounds, others in shady local industries and clan and patronage networks. This was the crowd that Ma attacked when he was justice minister. They might support him, for he has shown little inclination in recent years to take on the Party Machine. But then again, they might fear he will turn on them once in office.

Earnings -- KMT is much wealthier than the DPP, no question. But the DPP has apparently been raking it in recently:


The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is nearly 80 times richer -- in total asset terms -- than the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), figures from the Ministry of the Interior show.

The KMT has assets worth more than NT$27 billion (US$821 million), while the DPP's assets amount to nearly NT$339 million.

In a rare peek at hard numbers from political parties' financial statements, some surprising information about the top parties appeared on the ministry's Web site yesterday (www.moi.gov.tw/home/home.asp).

Although it is no secret that the KMT possesses copious assets -- much of which its critics allege it plundered after Taiwan ceased to be a Japanese colony -- it might surprise some to know that the DPP's income for last year was more than double that of the KMT.

The DPP earned NT$661 million while the KMT pulled in a little more than NT$301 million.

In terms of net assets, the KMT boasts 100 times more asset value, or roughly NT$25.5 billion, to the DPP's nearly NT$253 million, the records show.

But the KMT is also saddled with more debt, nearly NT$1.6 billion as of last year, compared with the DPP's nearly NT$86 million.


Is the smart money betting on the DPP? Hard to say, but I'm inclined to think so.

Ethnicity -- In the western press it is conventionally claimed that Ma and Hsieh are both moderates who can appeal to centrist voters. The western moderate voter here is a myth -- the center in Taiwan is composed of two types of voters: apathetic Greens who don't turn out if not thrilled by the candidate, and voters who have given up on politics and do not vote. In other word, the centrist voters are pro-independence. Western observers are often puzzled as to why political leaders in Taiwan do not move toward the middle when they make political moves. This is because, by default, the DPP is already at the middle -- the centrist voter is Green, and because the middle -- that's the place between Blue and Green! -- consists of people who don't vote (so why move toward them?). This is why Ma, when trying to move toward the center and pick up some of those Light Green votes, has made feeble gestures, killed by the KMT core, to include independence as an option for the KMT. In other words, Ma is constrained by his political values from appealing to the "center" since, as polls show, the Taiwan identity is growing here. The most Ma can do is get absolutely everyone Blue out to vote. In a nation where voters tend to vote their political identities, this is a disadvantage.

The election will of course be tight, but all in all, I think Hsieh has an excellent change to win.

That could change, of course. The indictments against both are wild cards, though it unthinkable that the largely pro-Blue prosecutorial and judicial system will actually convict Ma. Ma's indictment will be thrown out, I suspect. Another huge intangible is Chinese money, which I fear will be entering Taiwan in large amounts for this election. But still, if both sides give it their best shot, I look forward to watching President Hsieh sworn in 2008.

UPDATE: I wrote this before Chen Shui-bian became Chairman of the DPP. Heh.



41 comments:

  1. Thanks for an interesting rundown, but I have to say I might be the proverbial centrist voter here. The blue-green axis does nothing for me. I'm certainly not a big fan of blues who throw hissy fits at the though of renaming a monument to a dictator in the heart of Taipei, at the same time, I'm not such a big fan when Hsieh and friends wax over the martial law days.

    I'd like to find out what each candidate stands for going forwards for Taiwan exactly. I'm leaning Hsieh, but the noise to signal level makes me want to give up on following politics altogether here.

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  2. By your logic, Bush shouldn't be our president :(. I do agree that the election will be tight.

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  3. Pssst! Michael um take a look at this sentence:

    "The election will of course be tight, but all in all, I think Hsieh has an excellent change to win."


    Excellent change to win? Oops!!

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  4. I am a card-carry member of DDP but I am not so optimistic. In 2000, most people in Taiwan were pissed at KMT and President Lee. Naturally they vote for DPP. In 2004, thanks to those two bullets, most of the DPP supporters went out and vote for President Chen even they might not like the amateur governing of DPP. This year, a lot of people in Taiwan are still pissed at the unsatisfactory ruling of DPP. Even a lot of potential DPP supporters are just plainly pissed at President Chen. Mr. Hsieh so far does not provide any good idea to invoke DPP supports' enthusiasm to override their anger and disappointment. For the moment, I flatly can not believe Mr. Hsieh can win. Maybe we could put a gamble pool here. If Mr. Hsieh really would win the presidency of Taiwan in 2008, I would love to treat you dinner.

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  5. Ma's problems don't end there. His huge brain is also hurting him on the campaign trail.
    Dr(??)William Fang explains this in the China Post today:
    '..one must concede that it is very difficult for Ma, a recognized intelligent and articulate politician, to satisfactorily explain to these down-to-earth, less educated local folks why he cannot change the "KMT of China" into the "KMT of Taiwan" and why he opposes de-Sinicization efforts to demonstrate his "love for Taiwan."

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  6. "The working class already sees its wages falling in real terms, and knows that foreign labor is here to keep their own wages down."

    I'm suspicious of this claim. Even if real wages are falling down, this frees up the capital to go toward more efficient uses.

    Is there evidence that the wages are really falling in real terms in Taiwan? Anecdotal or from peer-reviewed research?

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  7. I don't know if there are any peer reviewed studies about falling wages, but it really doesn't matter. People here believe that is the case, and that is enough. There is a genuine air of deep, gloomy pessimism about Taiwan's economy, and rightly or wrongly, most people hold the DPP accountable since it is the ruling party. The candidate that can come up with the most realistic solution is the one who will win this election. This is shaping up to be Taiwan's "It's the economy, stupid" election.

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  8. I blogged on the data from DGBAS that shows the M-shpaed society emerging here in Taiwan: M Shaped. The data on income disparity is out there, just Google it.

    PR, you're still viewing elections here through the public policy lens: whoever offers the right mix of policy is going to win. Maybe there are a few thousand voters somewhere who are serious about public policy. But for most voters, this election is going to be about the pro-China vs. pro-Taiwan identity, one way or another.

    Michael

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  9. But for most voters, this election is going to be about the pro-China vs. pro-Taiwan identity, one way or another.

    I disagree. That will only be an issue for the fringe DDP and KMT. Everyone else already claims a pro-Taiwan "identity", just maybe not in the way independence supporters would prefer.

    The election, like all elections in practically every democratic society, will hinge on what people perceive is the issue most affecting them. For most, it will not be pro-China, pro-Taiwan, but their pocketbooks.

    That's why I think the candidate who does the best job selling his economic plan will win. And of course, part of that will entail how to go about opening the Three Links.

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  10. chcyang said...In 2004, thanks to those two bullets, most of the DPP supporters went out and vote for President Chen even they might not like the amateur governing of DPP.

    That's what the blue camp want us to believe. If you checked the trend of polls you would have found out that (1) the support to Chen was always increasing constantly during the campaign, and (2) one or two weeks before the election, Chen was already winning over Lien-Song pair and (3) the percentage of winning shown in poll was larger than that in the final outcome.

    What it means is, not only would Chen still wins without the two bullets, he would actually have won even more.

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  11. Michael,

    I think you missed one very critical factor in Hsieh-Ma competition: the achievement made during their mayor terms.

    According to what I observed over some forums (pro-green), any one who has visited Kaohsiung would immediately spot, and be amazed by, the huge jump of city development that was largely made by Hsieh's administration.

    In contrast, Ma's administration during his two terms of Mayorship was not only poor but terrible. One of his most brag-about achievements, the Mao-Kong Cable Car(貓空纜車), is malfunctioning on a weekly (if not daily) basis, endangering the lives of many citizens. Even pro-blue city councilmen are asking it to stop operation before all safety measures are taken. Unlike what Ma claimed as one of his most proud achievements, it is now a shame of Ma and of Taipei.

    And it is just one of the many big cases in which Ma can't handle well. In general, Taipei under Ma's administration is what we call "thousand wounds hundred holes"(千瘡百孔). It shows that Ma doesn't even have the capability of handling a city, let alone a country.

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  12. I think you missed one very critical factor in Hsieh-Ma competition: the achievement made during their mayor terms.

    Thanks, man, but I decided to leave it out, so I didn't get caught up in arguments about "what he really did." I don't think there is ANY question that Hsieh's achievements blow away Ma's but then, Kaohsiung was so bad that any positive leadership would be good, whereas Ma started from the strong base left by Chen, making clear achievement harder. I think the WiFi thing is a major step forward for the city. But other than that, it is hard to think of a Ma success.

    Michael

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  13. The election, like all elections in practically every democratic society, will hinge on what people perceive is the issue most affecting them. For most, it will not be pro-China, pro-Taiwan, but their pocketbooks.

    That's why I think the candidate who does the best job selling his economic plan will win. And of course, part of that will entail how to go about opening the Three Links.


    These are the same issues, Franc. They can't be separated. The working class Greens shiver in horror at the thought of all those unemployed coming over. The candidates will do what they always do, speak in vagueness or else advocate bombastic, impossible plans -- like Ma's to create 100,000 jobs. Neither candidate is going to proffer clear public policy, just stuff that feels good to talk about -- like Hsieh's "journey of love and peace". In the meantime there are going to be lots of get out the vote stuff by both sides as everyone attempts to energize their core voters and slam the other side. But I think the Greens are simply going to have more voters, period, because more people are shifting to a pro-Taiwan identity, and many Blue arguments -- like the one that China would attack if Chen were elected -- have lost their force. Really, what can the Blues run on? Meanwhile, the community building efforts that Lee Teng-hui began are bearing fruit in all sorts of ways -- spent the day talking about them with someone studying them. Can't blog on it until he publishes.

    That will only be an issue for the fringe DDP and KMT.

    The "fringe" is mainstream, here. The Blue candidate is a Deep Blue ideologue, and the Green candidate is a mainstream independence supporter. There is no "fringe". That's American-think, again.

    Michael

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  14. The "fringe" is mainstream, here.

    I don't see that at all, just the opposite in fact.


    The Blue candidate is a Deep Blue ideologue

    you must be kidding. A candidate who has publicly stated on more than one occasion that independence is an option for the people of Taiwan? (even though it would not be his choice...)

    I had always considered Deep Blues to be the generation of James Song, Lian Zhan and earlier. Whatever you may think of the KMT, Ma Yingjiu and Wang Jinping are not Deep Blue ideologues.

    and the Green candidate is a mainstream independence supporter.

    I'm unaware of his actual publicly stated views regarding independence, but I agree he is mainstream and not 'fringe', certainly when compared with other DPP politicos.

    There is no "fringe".

    Sure there is: diehard reunification at any cost people in the KMT are a fringe in Taiwan, as are those in the DPP and TSU who espouse immediate, unilateral independence.

    I think you're overgeneralizing the pro-Taiwan vs. pro-China identity issue. Believe it or not, there are many native Taiwanese who support the KMT, and I know of several 'mainlanders' who lean green.

    I don't think that is the driving issue for most people here. For most, it will be which candidate can offer the best policies to turn around the perceived economic malaise that has allowed Korea's GNP to overtake Taiwan. This has resulted in a huge psychological blow to people here, regardless of its veracity.

    But we shall soon see...

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  15. I think you're overgeneralizing the pro-Taiwan vs. pro-China identity issue. Believe it or not, there are many native Taiwanese who support the KMT, and I know of several 'mainlanders' who lean green.

    Franc, of course I know this.

    you must be kidding. A candidate who has publicly stated on more than one occasion that independence is an option for the people of Taiwan? (even though it would not be his choice...)

    No, not kidding. I just don't take him at face value. Ma is a Deep Blue ideologue posing as a pragmatist.

    Sure there is: diehard reunification at any cost people in the KMT are a fringe in Taiwan, as are those in the DPP and TSU who espouse immediate, unilateral independence.

    Oh please. I just referred to them in the previous comment! They are a tiny minority. The mainstream view in Taiwan is status quo now, independence at some point.


    I don't think that is the driving issue for most people here. For most, it will be which candidate can offer the best policies to turn around the perceived economic malaise that has allowed Korea's GNP to overtake Taiwan. This has resulted in a huge psychological blow to people here, regardless of its veracity.


    As I noted before, you're thinking like an American. For an exercise, what concrete policies that the public favored got Chen into office in 2004?

    Michael

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  16. Michael:"Hsieh's achievements blow away Ma's but then, Kaohsiung was so bad that any positive leadership would be good, whereas Ma started from the strong base left by Chen, making clear achievement harder."

    The above statement did make some point. However, Ma's administration is so terrible not because that he can't compete with Chen, but because he can't even do a simple thing right. In some sense, he actually brought more destruction (waste of resource, endanger people's lives, allowing corruptions ...) than construction.

    I think the WiFi thing is a major step forward for the city. But other than that, it is hard to think of a Ma success.

    Really? According to what I heard, the WiFi stuff Ma built for Taipei is a disaster too. Poor connectivity in most area of the city after he spent a huge sum of budget on it. Since it's very inconvenient, the number of customers is far far below the expected. To compensate for the loss, Ma ended up ordering Taipei government departments to order large amount of accounts for his employees. Still not many people made use of it, even it's free. Its fate is the same as all other things that Ma claims as achievements -- disaster.

    But this is what I heard over the net. Maybe you have personally experienced it and think that it's a positive contribution ?

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  17. 花枝,

    The question is: are you representative of the general voting public here? And because the blue-green axis does nothing for you, does that mean politicians can ignore it?

    Interestingly, Ma had a similar criticism of the DPP memorializing the lifting of martial law. It seems like a perfectly reasonable occurrance to memorialize. Hsieh made some comments during those days, but frankly I haven't been hearing him say a lot about it the past couple of weeks, especially since he has been in the states.

    I think asking Hsieh to stop talking about the martial law era is a bit like asking him to surrender, because the martial law period is the flipside to Taiwan's current vibrant democracy. Many people associate Ma with that period, as someone who profited from it. And Ma has every reason to shift attention away from it. His strategy is to focus on: "The DPP screwed everything up" and "I promise you peace with China" and "I will save the economy."

    But I think there is another reason why the DPP would focus on the recent past. The experience of 228, the White Terror, Martial Law are all part of the shared memory that hold the greens together ethnically and as a voting block, just as the loss of the mainland is a shared memory that holds the blues together. I don't think you can really trivialize these issues. They mean something to a lot of people, especially people who themselves or their families suffered during this period. It's easy to say: "just move on!" but that is never easy. I guess, as a Jew who grew up with stories of the holocaust, I understand that memories do not die. Yes, I agree we must channel our energy into the future, but the past holds a vital place in that future.

    Hsieh was also a human rights lawyer who came of age during this time, and a politican who learned the art as an outsider in a single party state.

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  18. Prince Roy:"you must be kidding. A candidate who has publicly stated on more than one occasion that independence is an option for the people of Taiwan? (even though it would not be his choice...)

    Maybe I didn't follow the news closely? To my knowledge Ma only said it in public once or twice. And after that idea was bombarded heavily by KMT core elites and deep blue supporters, he never mentioned it again for months.

    What it means to me is that Ma really wants to grab some middle stream of voters (doesn't matter if he really wants it), but was tighten up by the strong opposition of Deep Bluers. Since he never mentions it again, I suppose that he can't fight off the blue pressure and already give up the idea of "independence is an option."

    The way I look at it is that those dieheart deep bluers, even though not the majority of blue camp, they can exercise most powerful influence and thus is dominating where blue goes.

    I don't think that is the driving issue for most people here. For most, it will be which candidate can offer the best policies to turn around the perceived economic malaise that has allowed Korea's GNP to overtake Taiwan. This has resulted in a huge psychological blow to people here

    This is a foreign idea to me. I am not aware that Taiwanese have ever been so worried about "losing to Korea (or any other countries) in GNP" such that they have to choose a president to beat Korea. Can you elaborate it a little bit more? What made you think or learn that "economic malaise that has allowed Korea's GNP to overtake Taiwan" is haunting Taiwanese so much ?

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  19. As I noted before, you're thinking like an American.

    That's not an argument, but a tautology. And until the day you get a green ROC passport, it's pot calling kettle.

    I know you've given a lot of thought to your theory of the Taiwan electorate and voting preferences, and I'm not dismissing it out of hand, but I see no convincing evidence to support it.

    I look forward to the coming campaign season.

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  20. Some news:

    About the cable car(貓空纜車)that Ma claims as his big achievement: after it started operation on July 4th this year, 113 interruptions of operation due to malfuncitoning in 22 days --- It has to stop to fix problems 5 times a day. Can u believe that?

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  21. I know you've given a lot of thought to your theory of the Taiwan electorate and voting preferences, and I'm not dismissing it out of hand, but I see no convincing evidence to support it.

    Ok, then. We'll know in six months.

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  22. wulingren said: But I think there is another reason why the DPP would focus on the recent past. The experience of 228, the White Terror, Martial Law are all part of the shared memory that hold the greens together ethnically and as a voting block, just as the loss of the mainland is a shared memory that holds the blues together. I don't think you can really trivialize these issues. They mean something to a lot of people, especially people who themselves or their families suffered during this period. It's easy to say: "just move on!" but that is never easy. I guess, as a Jew who grew up with stories of the holocaust, I understand that memories do not die. Yes, I agree we must channel our energy into the future, but the past holds a vital place in that future.


    This is a very important comment. Taiwanese (at least in their 40s and up) know in their bones what a repressive regime is. I know it as an abstract concept, without emotional force. Is living in fear of unemployment more acceptable or living in fear of prison? My intuition in that Taiwanese know they can survive tough economic times- they aren't scared of being poor. What they don't won't is for their dignity to be diminshed by an authoritarian government. But I haven't been in Taiwan for 10 years. Maybe the memory of the White Terror has diminshed.

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  23. I should add that Green and Blue are also economic positions. The Blues are basically taking the position of the American Chamber of Commerce: Taiwan's economic woes are the result of restriction's on investment in China and the bans on direct flights. This leads Ma to propose the idea of a common economic market between Taiwan and China. The Greens have an opposite view on this. Many are saying the problem is that too much investment is going into China, and that all of the factories have moved there, which produce cheaper goods that then flood the Taiwanese market. Hsieh has been supportive of opening the three links, but has also been very critical of Ma's common market, saying that it would lead to an unemployment disaster. So, I think this is another place where green-blue is not just some superficial color-coded axis.

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  24. Right, Wulingren. The Green and Blue positions are quite complex. You can't extricate the "economic" factors from the "identity" factors.

    Michael

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  25. Nice analysis. It's good to see a thorough rundown and a nice debate on this issue in English. Good to know people still care.

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  26. Nice to see some thorough analysis and debates in English. Glad to know that people who aren't so-called 'Taiwanese' interested in this issue.

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  27. Blue wig on a stick... LOL! Good one...

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  28. This is so humorous, I couldn't stop laughing!

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  29. Great analysis. You area real taiwan expert. One thing I don't agree with you is about WiFi success. Actually, it's a disaster. It's just a propaganda. You can check how many subscribers/users it has and commercial transaction/political exchange(President and Fareast groups) behind the WiFi network.

    Yourdon

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  30. Wifly failure story is described in the August 2007 of Infopro Magazine(資訊傳真). Check it out if necessary!

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  31. Michael said:
    "Is the smart money betting on the DPP? Hard to say, but I'm inclined to think so.

    That's a very interesting question. Is there a Taiwanese equivalent of something like Intrade? I've been a close follower of futures on various politicians in the US, and I'd love to get in on the action here. If it's legal.

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  32. 花枝:
    That you consider not caring about politics and just giving up is exactly why no one cares about your so-called "centrist" opinions. (The harshness is only due to my honesty).

    There are a lot of opinions about the economy in the Taiwanese media, but you're really going to have to look at the numbers yourself if you want any truth. The Korea garbage shouldn't be allowed to make its way to the English blog world--Korea's per-capita GDP in dollar terms is higher, but in real terms, i.e., how high is your salary when we consider what you can buy with it, Taiwan's per-capita GDP is higher. Think about it like this--if you just want nice numbers, jack the shit out of inflation, and there, everyone has huge salaries, and can... buy the same shit with that salary.

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  33. Anonymous, you misunderstand what real GDP means. That makes it doubly disturbing that you want to censor blogs from saying things you don't want to hear.

    The fact that Korea's real GDP has passed Taiwan's means that Korea is now ahead in actual international buying power. Simply "jacking the shit out of inflation", as you put it, wouldn't help the real GDP or PPP-adjusted GDP.

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  34. "Economy -- Oh yeah. It's rolling right now. Stock market at 7 year highs. Unemployment falling gently over the long term. Exports at record levels and likely to continue as the China market continues to boom."

    By this article alone, I know the author of this article has no friggin clue what he is talking about. The economy is in deep recession, the job market is absolutely horrid with businesses folding left and right, the relationship with China is worse than ever. If the author of this article were from Taiwan or have lived there in the past few years and actually knew what the reality there is, he would not write such nonsense.

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  35. By this article alone, I know the author of this article has no friggin clue what he is talking about. The economy is in deep recession, the job market is absolutely horrid with businesses folding left and right, the relationship with China is worse than ever. If the author of this article were from Taiwan or have lived there in the past few years and actually knew what the reality there is, he would not write such nonsense.

    LOL. I've lived here for many years. The reality is that at present economic growth is 5.46% (not recession), trade with China is booming, unemployment is less than 4% (not horrid). When I wrote that, the stock market was at a high. Not all the news is good, of course. Business closings are at a high right now. But on the whole, your claims are merely a farrago of KMT talking points. It would be nice if people who commented on the economy actually took the time to study it, instead of simply acting like robots who believed whatever they are told.

    People believe the economy is bad because incomes are stagnant, not because it is in recession (there hasn't been a recession in seven years). Incomes are stagnant for many complex reasons.

    Michael

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  36. What a bunch of crap this blog is. This guy obviously has been teaching English in Taiwan for a few years, made a few pro-green friends (in pro-green country- Taichung) and thinks he's got the full understanding of Taiwan politics. Typical Gui Lo. First of all, all politics is driven by money. And to say that the economy is doing well under the DPP regime is a farce. You've mentioned that the stock market is at its 7 year high. Hello, Genius...most stock markets have grown in the past 7 yrs! And you've made mention of the terrible job that past president Lee of the blue party has done for Taiwan (which I agree with)...But if you were to do some research, you've find that he is a traitorous fool that caused the Blue party debacle and went over to help the Green Party; btw he is now abandoned by his Green colleagues.
    Understand this, it is because of the DPP and their outspoken desires to be independent from China that has helped weakened the Taiwan economy. Don't think so? Then why did the voters sided with the Blue party at this year's elections? Just as the people around, they say down with President Chen. This is what happens when you let a blue collar president run the show. He has no business or the intelligence to run the Country. What pisses me off is this guy’s disrespect for history and legacy. Changing the name to a national memorial is something that an uneducated group of people would do. Has anyone changed any government building in the United States that is named Robert E Lee of the confederate army? No, because its history. You also mentioned pillaging of Taiwan. Hello, Taiwan was a part of the Japan during WWII. Do you know how much pillaging the Japanese did in China and its neighboring countries? Don't even get me started about Taiwan and independence. I'm tired and don't even know why I bothered with this biased blog.

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  37. You mentioned Chen's successful win in the presidential election. What a joke. Anyone remember the fake shooting that they pulled to sway the voters? Talk about dirty politics. Don't even try to deny it was a fake shooting.

    If the DPP party really want Taiwan to succeed, they would use the nationality issue to try to convice the voters "Vote for Green because your a native Taiwanese." What a crock.

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  38. Above Anonymous comments obviously are from a PRO-BLUE nuts. Have you got any proof that the shooting was fake. If not, stop speculating rumors.

    Michael, this is a very nice well-written article. I am very surprised you could see and understand all these while some Taiwanese are just blindly believing that Mr. Ma is great. If he can't manage a city, how can he manage a country? Moreover, he has no guts. I strongly believe that people without guts can not be leaders.

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  39. Wow! Ma didn't pass his BAR?!? That's news to me! Are you sure?

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  40. No matter what the result came out with last presidential election. Hsieh had won not only my heart and my mind, but also the supporters of Taiwan.

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