Feiren alerted me to a new poll in the pro-KMT China Times today purporting to show that a Hsieh-Su ticket is narrowly ahead of a Ma-Siew ticket. As a Blue poll, it has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it does show what an excellent candidate Hsieh is. In 2004 nobody thought Chen would win, but as the election drew near Chen made up lots of ground, moving into a tie more than two weeks prior to the election. A big "recovery" in the final weeks is the norm among the DPP candidates, so if that pattern holds, Hsieh may well win. I suspect that a serious scientific poll would put Hsieh + any reasonable Veep out in front of Ma-Siew at this time. The China Times says of Veep picks:根據中時電子報最新的電訪民意調查顯示，在民進黨內部熱門副手人選中，有四成五四的受訪者支持蘇貞昌，二成三一支持葉菊蘭，二成○四支持蔡英文，另有一成一的受訪者，希望從非政界人士中選出副手人選。如果明天就是大選日，民進黨的「謝蘇配」則是以高過百分之○．八，險勝國民黨的「馬蕭配」。
According to the most recent online China Times telephone survey, among the hot names for the DPP vice presidential candidate, 45% support Su, 23% support Yeh Chu-lan, and 20% support Tsai Ing-wen. 11% say the want a veep who is not a politician. If the election were held tomorrow, Hsieh-Su would beat Ma-Siew by 0.8 points.
Good news for us.
[Taiwan] [KMT] [Ma Ying-jeou] [Frank Hsieh] [DPP]
Got to hand it to the media, they're hyping a P/VP team that doesn't even exist yet. You heard it first from China Times!
ReplyDeleteMichael, you warned:
ReplyDelete- - -
As a Blue poll, it has to be taken with a grain of salt...
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To be clearer, polls by pro-unification media (統派媒體 or 統媒) such as the China Times tend not only to be "inaccurate," but to also favor blue candidates (as seen here and here) for the reasons you mentioned previously and more. Drawing upon experience, one might naturally come to the conclusion that the green candidates (or even prospective ones -- I'd bet that even channing saw some polls about Ma's potential picks for a running mate before he actually announced the decision) most likely have an advantage which is far greater than just the China Times' margin of error.
LOL. Look, there's no way I am jinxing this election by formally claiming out loud and in print that Hsieh has a substantive lead based on that logic, which also occurred to me. LOL.
ReplyDeleteMichael
Just like when I see these kinds of things in the US media, this story strikes me as not very newsworthy, certainly 'unblogworthy', at this time, since it consists of hypotheticals. And in any event, the other two matchups poll behind Ma-Siew. Yes, I know, the astute expat weathervanes tell us this really means the DPP is ahead by at least 28 points.
ReplyDeleteI saw 蘇真昌 today by the way. He came to the AIT July 4th reception at the Grand Hyatt.
Well, if you don't like that, Frank, you can see the TVBS poll on ESWN that has Ma at 51 and Hsieh in the 20s. Which one makes more sense? I think it is important that the China Times is willing to sound the alarm so early.
ReplyDeleteMichael
Just like what my parents told me thirty years ago, when you are reading the China Times, you have to hold it up side down!
ReplyDeleteIt hasn't changed a bit!
michael: "I think it is important that the China Times is willing to sound the alarm so early."
ReplyDeleteIt's not what I read from this poll. I don't believe Pan blue has any interest in revealing any truth as a news. For them announcing a poll is nothing but a tool to serve their political agenda. They use media to create "fake public opinion" in a hope that it will actually lead people to go to that direction. They have been using this trick again and again for years.
In this case, it says Hsieh-Su pair will have a chance to win Ma-Shiaw. What it means to me --- just read it upside down --- is of 2 things: (1) Hsieh-Su pair is actually the lowest-score combination in their poll (that is, if they DID conduct a poll); (2) Therefore they prefer Hsieh to choose Su. That's why that poll result is "designed" that way.
I believe Pan Blue's poll/news should all be read this way.