More Media stuff on Taiwan

Preparing for finals in the PHD program, so not much time to blog today... former AIT head Therese Shaheen writes at American Enterprise Institute on the US relationship with Taiwan:

The rhetoric-reality gap provokes obvious questions: What preconditions are in place to ensure that military action is a last resort? Under what circumstances would the U.S. intervene? What is the state of the Taiwan military leadership? How ready are Taiwan's forces to defend themselves? How ready are U.S. forces to work with them, should that be necessary?

Taiwan might be more serious about providing for its own defense and less reliant on U.S. commitments if there were greater clarity into what they mean and how they might be discharged. But the limited interaction imposed by the reality of U.S.-China-Taiwan circumstances has made this goal difficult to achieve. Today, the bureaucracy makes decisions by self-policing an unstated policy of "nothing goes." One recent example: In May, the U.S. National Press Club hosted a discussion with Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian by video link. U.S. officials at the desk-officer level concluded that it would undermine policy to attend this public event, reasoning that Mr. Chen's appearance was intended as an attempt to circumvent restrictions on senior Taiwan officials visiting Washington, D.C.

But the lack of interaction goes beyond one-off, questionable decisions such as that. Military officers at the one-star level or above, or the civilian equivalent, are not permitted to meet in Taiwan with their counterparts. While there is serious contingency planning at high levels on both sides, senior U.S. planners and decision makers do not interact with their Taiwan counterparts. The dialogue instead is conducted by proxy at lower levels of government.

Even simple meetings are less frequent in recent years. As late as 2003, State and Defense Department officials--albeit at the mid-grade deputy assistant secretary level--were permitted to meet regularly with senior Taiwanese officials including the foreign minister outside of Washington, D.C. That contact no longer takes place. At the highest levels, the U.S.-Taiwan relationship would have to get much closer to even describe it as "arms-length." No cabinet-level officials have met their Taiwanese counterparts since the Clinton administration.

That last paragraph is scary....meanwhile, China threatens war over Bush's handshake with Joseph Wu. Right. And from David Lague comes this review of China's growing military ability to threaten Taiwan and the US. The article notes that China's strategy is to absorb the island without a fight -- hence its increasingly close links to the KMT -- but at the same time, China is pursuing weapons that it can use to negate US advantages, and take Taiwan before the US response gets rolling. However, the article ALSO says that China's plan is to attack and isolate US bases in the Pacific in order to prevent US forces from hitting Chinese forces attacking Taiwan. To wit:

There have also been reports in specialist defense publications that the army in September last year used a ground-based laser to temporarily blind a U.S. reconnaissance satellite tracking over China although these reports have not been confirmed.

Measures like these combined with jamming of radars and communications along with attacks on computer networks could force the U.S. military to fight an old-fashioned war, analysts say, where aircraft and warships would be forced to operate without detailed, up-to-date knowledge of the positions and intention of China's forces.

The Chinese Army is also developing its own surveillance and reconnaissance technology, analysts say, including satellites, airborne radar and unmanned aerial vehicles that could be used to guide precision weapons.

These weapons, including China's rapidly expanding missile force, could be used to attack ports, air bases, communication centers, logistics hubs and military headquarters in East Asia and the Pacific as part of a campaign to interfere with U.S. forces coming to assist Taiwan.

Another priority for China, according to military analysts, is improving its capacity to attack U.S. warships, particularly aircraft carriers, which would be crucial for the defense of Taiwan.

"To prevent deployment of naval forces into western Pacific waters, PLA planners are focused on targeting surface ships at long ranges," the Pentagon report said.

This seems like an updated version of the old "the Americans are soft and will quit if we just hit them hard enough." Even if the Chinese take Taiwan, does anyone really imagine that the US will not continue the fight if China strikes US territories and US assets in the Pacific? Either the Chinese must be very stupid, or the threat estimate has been tweaked....

[Taiwan] [US] [China]