Taiwan, FTAs, and the US China strategy

Raj over at the Peking Duck comments on Taiwan and its Free Trade Agreements with Latin American nations...

This is despite the fact Taiwan has slashed tariffs, as well as removing other restraints on trade. It has also improved IP-rights, something the US had long been asking it to do. Yet Taiwan has received no reward for these bold moves.

The problem isn't just that Taiwan's economy suffers as a result - it's also that countries are allowing themselves to be pushed around by China. Will the world really stand up to China as soon as it demands something else that is unreasonable? I doubt it. Today it's Taiwan, tomorrow it will be something else. Before you know it, China will think it can get away with anything - in which case countries like the US will have few responses available, as China will either not care or believe anything else is a bluff.

Raj argues that Taiwan is key to a US anti-China strategy. Japan's recent slow waltz toward Taiwan is more evidence that the inevitable move of an anti-China policy is closer to Taiwan -- and to India. Problem is -- is it really true that US policy is anti-China? Seems to me that US policymakers are divided on what to do about China. Also seems to me that the Chinese are not at all divided on what to do about the US: eliminate its influence, destroy its regional hegemony in East Asia, and displace its leadership in the world. If only the Bush Administration wasn't helping them do that, I wouldn't be so worried....

UPDATE: Analyst John Tkacik, who grew up in Taiwan, reinforced all this in an editorial in the Taipei Times a couple of days ago. After noting Taiwan's importance as a large democracy and the eighth largest US trading partner, Tkacik observed:

Until Asia's democracies can rest assured, as the magnitude of China's military might catches up with its economic power, that Beijing does not seek military preeminence in the region, US strategists should resurrect their historic rule of thumb for Asia: Keep "island Asia" out of the hands of "mainland Asia."

The US' strategic position in Asia is approaching a tipping point vis-a-vis China. Some believe the US' only interest in Taiwan is to ensure that the "Taiwan issue" is resolved peacefully, a policy in which "process" trumps "outcome."

In 1945, US president Harry Truman declared that a "strong, united and democratic China" was in "the most vital interests of the United States."

Two out of three is not good enough. Until China is democratic, the most vital US interest must be to maintain its strategic posture in the western Pacific, and Taiwan is essential to achieving that end.

[Taiwan] [US] [China]