As the controversial arms purchase drags into its third year of debate, many experts have been saying quietly that Taiwan should simply go ahead and build its own conventional submarines. This week defense expert Bernard Cole weighed in on the issues.Bernard Cole, a professor at the National War College in Washing-ton, made his comments to Taiwan reporters after a speech in which he advised the Legislative Yuan to drop its debate on the purchase of three advanced weapons systems offered by the US, and instead pay more attention to the "mundane" military needs that will help deter any Chinese military attack on Taiwan.
"I would encourage Taiwan to begin an indigenous program to begin producing conventional-powered submarines," Cole told the reporters.
"Given the advanced state of Taiwan's electronics industry and its shipbuilding industry, I find it hard to believe that over the course of eight to ten years that Taiwan cannot produce an operational submarine."
"Many elements would have to be imported, such as periscopes and battery technology, but I believe that technology is available on world markets," he said.
The price of the submarines that the US is offering Taiwan is roughly three times the world market price, coming to $12 billion for the package of eight submarines. This pricing policy was driven by the internal politics of US weapons procurement rather than by any need on Taiwan's part or by the low number of units in the order. As a US defense expert put it:
Then, there is nothing that made me angrier than the stunt they pulled on the submarine issue. In this case, while castigating the KMT, DPP, or whoever for not taking defense seriously and not passing the special budget, the Pentagon, especially the dominant factions of the US Navy, with at least the implicit consent of Rumsfeld, was working to undermine the deal by making it such a bitter pill to swallow. I have heard some ex-State and White House people they couldn't believe that Rumsfeld was allowed to get away with undermining a Presidential-level assurance to assist Taiwan in its acquisition of diesel electric submarines.
There was, and continues to be, a lot more to this defense budget issue than meets the eye. For example, 130 out 225 LY [Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's Congress - MT] members, in a petition to CSB, said in clear terms that if there is no local role in the program, then they wouldn't pass the budget. This was 2002. Then, in 2004, Rumsfeld's office, in a move approved at the Deputy Secretary level, sends a letter to the Minister of Defense saying there will be no role for Taiwan industry in the program. Plus, forcing the LY to appropriate the full US $11.7 billion budget, before even knowing what design would be involved, runs counter to US defense acquisition regulations (Congress only appropriates funds for construction after certain milestones have been met, such as a critical design review).
The submarine program, which to me is the #1 priority for deterring PRC military action, is continuing to be choked until today. After a great campaign by Rob Simmons (R-CT), Pat Kennedy (D-RI), and a few others, it forced the Pentagon to play fair by adhering to US Federal acquisition regulations and breaking it into phases. However, the Pentagon, supposedly Taiwan's best friends, denied Taiwan any intellectual property rights to the design, despite Taiwan taxpayers paying at least US $360 million for it. And continuing to insist that Taiwan industry would have no role. When people in the KMT/PFP opposed the submarines, calling the program "kaizhe jungou," they have a point -- many I know are aware they were getting screwed.
The consensus among military experts is that subs are the best weapon against a Chinese invasion, since at the moment China's anti-sub capabilities are poorly developed. I have opposed the purchase of subs partly because for $12 billion Taiwan can get more bang for the dollar from purchasing additional fighter aircraft, along with spares, ammo, and training, and partly because I remain skeptical that subs will be effective in stopping a Chinese invasion -- history does not appear to offer any examples of invasions where submarines played a prominent role in their defeat.. Hence it was good to see Cole point out the importance of focusing on fundamentals:
"The defense debate about Taiwan in this country, and I suspect to a good degree in Taiwan, is too easily focused on these special budget items, rather than focusing on increasing the regular defense budget'" said Cole, who recently published a book entitled, Taiwan's Security: History and Prospects.
Many of the military officers he spoke with over the years, Cole said, "understand that very clearly and are frustrated by some of the budget problems they are experiencing."
He said these officers want such "mundane" things as money to buy fuel for ships, funds for more aircraft flying hours or money for ammunition for artillery training.
The US has clearly screwed Taiwan on the special budget, and Taiwan should move forward with alternatives, including developing a conventional submarine capability. In 15 years a sub manufacturing capability may well pay off in exports to neighboring countries who cannot source from Europe, since the Europeans fear the wrath of China.
[Taiwan] [US] [China] [submarines] [US Foreign Policy]
I think quite fairly the submarines have become too expensive and unworkable. However the P-3C Orions are a very necessary and good buy - same with the PAC-2 upgrades. If the PAC-3 price is reasonable, that two is fair enough.
ReplyDeleteThough it is true trying to rely more on domestic technology may be a good idea. Maybe Taiwan can re-negotiate with the US over submarine tech now Rumsfeld has gone and/or use their Democrat buddies in Congress to get something sorted.
Thanks for posting this.
ReplyDeleteBud Cole should be congratulated for highlighting an alternative approach to breaking the impasse on submarines.
Many ask the question of whether or not Taiwan's industry is able to design, develop, manufacture, and maintain submarines.
A better question is how sophisticated of a submarine can Taiwan's industry produce.
Japan designed, developed, and produced submarines in the 1930s, and a number of civilian companies, and amateurs for that matter, produce submarines. Even Yugoslavia developed its own submarines.
With U.S. industrial assistance working directly with Taiwan counterparts, an indigenous submarine is well within the grasp of local industry.
Someone needs to untie the knot and pull the plug on going through U.S. Navy channels. It hasn't worked, and there's reason to believe that even if the LY appropriated funding, the U.S. Navy would have difficulties in seeing the program through to completion. Plus, it's much easier`to gain political support domestically when jobs, income, and tech spin offs to the civilian sector (i.e., fuel cells, hybrid engines, etc) are included.
Raj -- the problem I see with the Orions is that Taiwan will need air supremacy, not merely air superiority, in order for them to conduct patrols. I just don't see complete command of the air in the cards for Taiwan. The motto of my blog is More Fighters!
ReplyDeleteThanks, anon. As always, your commentary is dead on.
Michael
Michael, Taiwan has applied to the US for more fighters - that's on hold until it gets the order for the Orions sorted. I think Washington will accept concern over submarines meaning the order isn't placed. In other respects Taiwan needs more missiles, not more planes. Some people say it has quite a few spares, as the pilots all have their own fighters and then some.
ReplyDeleteBesides you don't need air-superiority for the Orions per ce. If China were to blockade, not invade Taiwan, the Orions could be used to sink the PLAN submarines. If China then tried to take down the Orions, that would provoke the US to intervene. If the US didn't, it would never help Taiwan so it wouldn't matter. Not having an air-launched option to deal with submarines would be terrible, as a blockade would be one scenario in which the US might shy away from intervening. Of course it might escort convoys, but no one should bank on that.
Also what with the plans in Taiwan to develop eastern ports to make them deep-water capable, Chinese submarines would probably have to operate outside the Strait themselves, where there wouldn't be much/any air-cover.
There's also the final point that Taiwan's current anti-sub air-fleet is almost completely dead due to age. Taiwan needs to get the Orions building so they will have something - how they use it is then up to them.