Tofucastle left this in a comment on an old post where no one will see it. I moved it here to give it more prominence.++++++++++++
I'm a grad student studying Taiwan Studies at National Chengchi University, in Taipei. I'm writing a thesis entitled "The Political Inclinations of Foreigners in Taiwan". If you're currently living there, and you are of foreign nationality, I'd really appreciate your participate. If you're interested, please e-mail me at tofucastle@hotmail.com
So far, I've surveyed 101 foreigners in Taiwan (mostly students and teachers so far), and have found that:
A) 2.1% support immediate unification
B) 14.9% support immediate independence
C) 24.5% support maintaining the status quo move toward unification in the future
D) 30.1% support maintaining the status quo, move towards independence in the future
E) 22.3% support maintaining the status quo, decide either unification or independence in the future
F) 5.3% support maintain the status quo forever.
Taken together, this means that 26.6% of those surveyed support unification now or later and 45% support independence now or in the future and 28.4% support status quo forever or to decide either unification or independence in the future. I understand that one's outlook on the cross-Strait relationship may depend on the conditions attached to the sovereignty issues as well as other pervading geopolitical circumstances, but my study is less focused on independence/unification issue itself. Rather, I'm trying to assess what intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect foreigner's outlook on the situation.
Two of the most curious traits about those I've found survey reveal that the longer foreigners have lived here, the more pro-independence they tend to be. Namely, 63% of those living here for 2 years or more favor independence now or in the future. Whereas it's 44% for those who have lived here between 1 or 2 years and 25% for those who have lived here one year or less.
Moreover, people from "developed countries", as defined by the IMF, tend to be more pro-independence than those from "developing countries". (48% pro-independence and 32% respectively)
But anyways, if you're interested in participating in the survey, I'd greatly appreciate it. Below, you can find the survey that i've already begun distributing. I'm also trying to get it translated into Thai and Indonesian ... and hopefully Vietnamese; my goal is to get 250 surveys collected eventually. PLEASE e-mail me your contact so I can send you the survey.
Please review it below:
Hello! The responses obtained from this survey are intended for research purposes only and will be used in a masters thesis entitled "The Political Inclination of Foreigners in Taiwan Regarding the Cross-Strait Situation." It is authored by
Lee Liu, a graduate student at National Chengchi University, in Taipei. Since all answers will be coded anonymously, please make sure to complete all questions and to be as frank as possible in your responses. The questionnaire should only take a few minutes to complete, so relax! Lee salutes you for your interest in participating in this study.
Questionnaire
1. Where are you from? ______________________
2. What is your age? _______
3. What is your gender?
1. Male
2. Female
4. What is your highest level of education?
1. Middle school or lower
2. High school
3. Undergraduate degree
4. Master degree or higher
5. How long have you lived in Taiwan? _______
6A. Are you married?
1. No
2. Yes
6b. What is his/her nationality? _______
7. What is your current occupation in Taiwan? (please be as specific as possible)
_____________________________
8. What is your income? _______________ per month
9. From whom do you receive financial support (please mark all that apply)?
1. From employers of the private sector
2. From friends or family members
3. From the Taiwanese government
4. From the government of your homeland
5. Other ____________
6. No financial support received
10. How many countries have you traveled? ______
11. How many countries have you stayed in for one month or more? ______
12. How many times have you visited mainland China (excluding Hong Kong and Macao)? ______
13. Of all the times you’ve visited mainland China (excluding Hong Kong and Macao), what is the total time you've stayed there?
________ months
14. Do you have business or family connections in mainland China (excluding Hong Kong and Macao)?
1. No family connections and no business connections
2. Some family connections but no business connections
3. Some family connections and some business connections
4. No family connections but some business connections
15. How much longer do you plan to stay in Taiwan? ______ months
16. What country do you want to move next? ________________
17. What languages do you speak?
1) __________ (Best)
2) __________ (Second Best)
3) __________ (Third Best)
4) __________ (Fourth Best)
18. My good friends in Taiwan are
1. almost all Taiwanese
2. mostly Taiwanese
3. almost balanced number of Taiwanese and foreigners
4. mostly foreigners
5. almost all foreigners
19. In Taiwan, of my good friends who are foreigners,
1. most are from my homeland
2. some are from my homeland
3. few are from my homeland
4. most are not from my homeland
20. How good is your Chinese?
20.1 Reading 20.2 Speaking 20.3 Writing
1. None 1. None 1. None
2. Poor 2. Poor 2. Poor
3. Fair 3. Fair 3. Fair
4. Good 4. Good 4. Good
5. Excellent 5. Excellent 5. Excellent
21. How many hours a week do you receive instruction for Chinese? ________
22. How many times per week do you keep in contact with friends or family members who aren't in Taiwan?
1. By regular mail ______ times per week
2. By phone ______ times per week
3. By Internet ______ times per week
23. How often do you get your news from the following media?
The China Post ______ times per month
The Taipei Times _______ times per month
The Taiwan News _______ times per month
A news website from where I’m from ______ times per month
A news website from somewhere else other than from where I’m from ______ times per month.
Another source _______________________ times per month. What source? ________________________
24. What religion do you consider yourself? _________________________
25. Considering the relationship between Taiwan and mainland China, which of the following six positions do you agree with 1) immediate unification, 2) immediate independence, 3) maintain the status quo, move toward unification in the future, 4) maintain the status quo, move toward independence in the future, 5) maintain the status quo, decide either unification or independence in the future, 6) maintain the status quo forever?
1. immediate unification
2. immediate independence
3. maintain the status quo, move toward unification in the future,
4. maintain the status quo, move toward independence in the future,
5. maintain the status quo, decide either unification or independence in the future,
6. maintain the status quo forever.
++++++++++
Tofucastle writes:
Two of the most curious traits about those I've found survey reveal that the longer foreigners have lived here, the more pro-independence they tend to be. Namely, 63% of those living here for 2 years or more favor independence now or in the future. Whereas it's 44% for those who have lived here between 1 or 2 years and 25% for those who have lived here one year or less.
Interesting assessment. Needs a statistical analysis, though.
[Taiwan]
The longer they've lived here is going to correlate with age. I will guess age to be a major factor as well, as older Americans (and thus basically any older Westerner) will have more ill-feelings towards the then truly Communist China.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, the biggest problem with this survey is that Taiwan is already independent. Saying immediate independence is more like saying, "doing something that may or may not be useful in securing 'legal' independence but sure as hell will get China's attention". We shouldn't be beholden to the term s of retarded American/Chiang Kai-shek diplomacy.
I know you've already spent a lot of time on the surveys, but the terms are wrong, and you can't just go along with it, even if it will help get your paper published.
The longer they've lived here is going to correlate with age. I will guess age to be a major factor as well, as older Americans (and thus basically any older Westerner) will have more ill-feelings towards the then truly Communist China.
ReplyDeleteI don't think independence is driven so strongly by ill-feelings toward China, but numerous other cultural and historical factors.
We shouldn't be beholden to the term s of retarded American/Chiang Kai-shek diplomacy.
What changes in terms would you recommend? Be concrete.
Michael
I agree with the first comment. The terms do not fit the actually existing range of attitudes and must be changed. Let the student take his terms from how the foreigners actually express their views, rather than imposing the old ideological cookie cutter on them. That in itself would be a contribution.
ReplyDeleteWhat changes in terms would you recommend? Be concrete.
ReplyDeleteMichael, exactly. No one knows what independence means.
I would provide the following options:
Immediately or in the near future
- Remain independent
- Unify with China
Medium to long-term
- Remain independent
- Unify with China
- Damn you, I have enough on my hands. I'll think about the medium and long-term when the time comes.
I really don't know what formal independence means. I have a pretty good idea of what remaining independent looks like in the broad and I think I know what unification looks like in the broad too, though there would be a lot of details to be worked out. But independence for a country with its own president, its own military, its own elections, its own representatives, etc, etc, etc. Does it mean:
- A declaration of independence by the President, that would either say "hey, we've been independent all along" (which wouldn't be much of a declaration and is something Ma Ying-jeou has said this year) or "hey you were right. We are a part of China. But when I'm done talking, we're not anymore!"?
- Removal of Chinese Nationalist imagery? It's been done all along these past six years although so much is still left, a major one being the flag
- So is changing the flag formal independence?
- Diplomatic recognition of Taiwan by major countries? (This obviously isn't even a decision Taiwan could make)
- How about a new/reformed consitution? Well let me ask the logically equivalent contrapositive. Are you saying that if Taiwan DOESN'T have a new constitution, Taiwan ISN'T an independent country?
- Are all of the above necessary? Some?
The question of formal independence is just too weird.
I think by formal independence people mean a state of affairs in which the world recognizes that Taiwan is a de facto independent state. That does not exist at the moment. You are right in arguing that the terms are not clear, and I also like the second poster's comment that it might be better to do some exploratory qualitative work on what independence means to foreigners.
ReplyDeleteMichael
Have you considered also asking your survey respondents the Chinese connection of the person with whom they are involved in a relationship?
ReplyDeleteThis might reveal somthing interesting. A friend of mine who used to be for independence switched side after he started dating a woman is originally from China.
Let me first say that I think this is an very interesting subject and I would be very much interesting in reading the results.
ReplyDeleteI however have some questions: What is the statistical significance of even 250 people? Especially with so many possible answers?
Is it a good idea to mention that you have found these remarkable interesting results... before you got all the results? Let's supose I am this hard core Communist and favor immediate annexation/annilation. I would be very upset with the preliminary results and send him 5 questionairs from five different email addresses.
If I am from Mongolia, China, HK can I participate as a foreigner?
I agree with the anti-cooky-cutter anonymous commentor. Add some interviews and let the Gringos explain what they think.
By the way. Although I read almost all of Michaels blog I wouldn't know if he favours:
- status quo rules for ever,
- for now and change to (formal) independance later or
- immediate declaration of independance?
Patrick
(Who doesnt live in Taiwan, and favors a change towards independent thinking of the people from the old institutions in Taiwan and much much much more so in China.)
By the way. Although I read almost all of Michaels blog I wouldn't know if he favours:
ReplyDelete- status quo rules for ever,
- for now and change to (formal) independance later or
- immediate declaration of independance?
The second -- status quo for foreseeable future, gradual implementation of independence. Plus increased imports of fresh parmesan cheese, as well as tax holidays for south indian restaurants.
Michael
Hello all,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your interest in commenting on my survey. Question 25 I have borrowed from the 2004 TEDS survey, created by the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University.
The actual TEDS questionnaire is actually 100's of questions long and does a great job delving in asking several follow up questions to the one that I had asked on my own survey. For instance, one of the questions asks something on the lines of "If Taiwan declares independence would result in nuclear war, which option would you prefer? -- immediate independence, immediate unification, etc. etc."
Initially, I had about 7 other follow up questions but during my defense of the proposal, one of the professors in my commitee advised me take off the follow up questions questions.
Moreover, since I'm also working on an interview component, my hope is that some of the conditions that those follow-up questions might address would be hashed out.
Again, I thank you all for your interest.
And as to the comment about China getting a bunch of people to fill out my survey -- I kinda wish that were the case. After posting my survey on this site and also on forumosa, I've only received two back!! erg. That's what I get for not being technologically savvy. Alas, I'm learning.
So if you haven't done so already, please e-mail me so I can send you a survey. If you don't feel comfortable in answering any of the questions, then just skip them. But the MOST important question, for obvious reasons, is the last one.
-- tofucastle
Hello all,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your interest in commenting on my survey. Question 25 I have borrowed from the 2004 TEDS survey, created by the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University.
The actual TEDS questionnaire is actually 100's of questions long and does a great job delving in asking several follow up questions to the one that I had asked on my own survey. For instance, one of the questions asks something on the lines of "If Taiwan declares independence would result in nuclear war, which option would you prefer? -- immediate independence, immediate unification, etc. etc."
Initially, I had about 7 other follow up questions but during my defense of the proposal, one of the professors in my commitee advised me take off the follow up questions questions.
Moreover, since I'm also working on an interview component, my hope is that some of the conditions that those follow-up questions might address would be hashed out.
Again, I thank you all for your interest.
And as to the comment about China getting a bunch of people to fill out my survey -- I kinda wish that were the case. After posting my survey on this site and also on forumosa, I've only received two back!! erg. That's what I get for not being technologically savvy. Alas, I'm learning.
So if you haven't done so already, please e-mail me so I can send you a survey. If you don't feel comfortable in answering any of the questions, then just skip them. But the MOST important question, for obvious reasons, is the last one.
-- tofucastle
Hello all,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your interest in commenting on my survey. Question 25 I have borrowed from the 2004 TEDS survey, created by the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University.
The actual TEDS questionnaire is actually 100's of questions long and does a great job delving in asking several follow up questions to the one that I had asked on my own survey. For instance, one of the questions asks something on the lines of "If Taiwan declares independence would result in nuclear war, which option would you prefer? -- immediate independence, immediate unification, etc. etc."
Initially, I had about 7 other follow up questions but during my defense of the proposal, one of the professors in my commitee advised me take off the follow up questions questions.
Moreover, since I'm also working on an interview component, my hope is that some of the conditions that those follow-up questions might address would be hashed out.
Again, I thank you all for your interest.
And as to the comment about China getting a bunch of people to fill out my survey -- I kinda wish that were the case. After posting my survey on this site and also on forumosa, I've only received two back!! erg. That's what I get for not being technologically savvy. Alas, I'm learning.
So if you haven't done so already, please e-mail me so I can send you a survey. If you don't feel comfortable in answering any of the questions, then just skip them. But the MOST important question, for obvious reasons, is the last one.
-- tofucastle
Clyde Said:
ReplyDeleteI just want to ring in here and say that these comments are really good! I especially like how the comments have separated the idea of moving away from the nationalist trappings (and isn't China in that situation also), from the independence issue. I often feel pressure from foreigners in Taiwan that just because I'm not crazy for formal independence (and maybe even a bit for unification) that this somehow means I'm all for the nationalist party line. As pointed out here, these issues have much more depth.
Michael, you may get at least part of what you want. Carrefour is contemplating marketing the the high peak of the M curve, and they plan to put over 1,000 imported items on their shelves.
Clyde, does this mean I'll get my ginger cookies back? (Sorry, I know I'm not helping to maintain the scholarly level of discussion about this post... But I miss Tesco!!!)
ReplyDeleteanonymous: the biggest problem with this survey is that Taiwan is already independent.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, this might not be what we pro-independent Taiwanese have in mind. For example, if you go tell those nettets in some pan-green forums that Taiwan is already independent (indicating that any effort for independence is meaningless), I am pretty sure that you will get very emotional responses telling you don't try to infiltrate them with poisonous thougths.
In our minds, Taiwan is currently ruled by a foreign government whose main role in Taiwan is colonization. Even this gov is currently run by a Taiwanese-elected president, the structure, the system, etc, are still shaped with and labeled with "Chineseness". We are still constantly threatened by the possibility that those pro-china power in Taiwan would tight Taiwan together with China forever, forcing Taiwanese culture be wiped out from the Earth, just like the fate of Tibet culture. Until this "coming from inside" possibility of termination is reduced to some safe level, and we can have a government that is specifically tailored for Taiwanese, a national flag of our own (but not of Chinese National Party), and a name like "Republic of Formosa" but not something like "xxxx xx China", then we will say, yes, Taiwan is independent.
What is independent in Taiwan now is ROC, not Taiwan. Taiwan is still colonized by a Chinese government.
Call me stupid, but how dpo we send u our answeers ? I dont have time to scroll/search, survey adfreeses.c omtacts should be in yr face. Anyway, contact me privately I have some interesting info. Pmathews2@hotmail.com
ReplyDeleteI've noticed that a lot of foreigners seem to be pro-independece. Why is that so? And I think someone mentioning internet sites feature posts from pro-indepence thinking people. What are those? Are there sites featuring views of foreigners with pro-indepence views?
ReplyDeleteI think it's interesting how no one really talks about the pro's of unification here -- like how it's sort might be an inevitable process because of the way the world's working now, in a post-cold war world, in a nuclear age, at the dawn of China's rise.
I think that other tiger economies have figured out a way to make money off of China's prominence, but Taiwan seemed to miss the boat on that meaure.
With the way the economy is going, and the corruption ridden government, I sometimes wonder if Taiwan might be better off.
I hope that someday, Taiwan independence one be helped legitimated with its future membership (hopefully) in organiztions like the UN and ASEAN. But one cannot ignore the fact that China is always blocking Taiwan's membership.
For Taiwan's economic well-being, and therefore political well-being, perhaps an economic union with China, similar to the EU might be promising.
Richard Bush, a well-known scholar and former head of AIT, entitled his book on the Taiwan and China relationship "Untying the Knot". he talked about the importance of confidence building, and making institutions work in light of Taiwan's dysfunctional government. I think he's right that focusing on these aspects is the key to promoting stability.
I've noticed that a lot of foreigners seem to be pro-independece. Why is that so?
ReplyDeleteProbably because it is the ethically, morally, and historically correct position.
Are there sites featuring views of foreigners with pro-indepence views?
Not specifically. The blogosphere for both foreigners and locals tends to be more Green than Blue.
I think it's interesting how no one really talks about the pro's of unification here -- like how it's sort might be an inevitable process because of the way the world's working now, in a post-cold war world, in a nuclear age, at the dawn of China's rise.
The reason nobody talks about pros is that there aren't any. There is nothing that Taiwan can get from China by being annexed to it that it can't get by being its own state.
I think that other tiger economies have figured out a way to make money off of China's prominence, but Taiwan seemed to miss the boat on that meaure.
I think you are very uninformed. Taiwan at the moment has investments of over $100 billion and runs a massive trade surplus with China. Korea and Taiwan run trade surpluses of about equal size. Taiwan actually ran the largest surplus with China of any nation in 2005.
With the way the economy is going, and the corruption ridden government, I sometimes wonder if Taiwan might be better off.
That's ridiculous. Taiwan's corruption is nothing compared to China's.
For Taiwan's economic well-being, and therefore political well-being, perhaps an economic union with China, similar to the EU might be promising.
Well, at the moment, as noted, there is neither an economic nor political case to be made for it. Any economic argument for Taiwan applies equally to any nation that trades with China (heck, you should argue for annexation of the US to China for that reason! Trade deficit gone!). The economic "arguments" are simply hidden propaganda for Chinese expansionism.
Richard Bush, a well-known scholar and former head of AIT, entitled his book on the Taiwan and China relationship "Untying the Knot". he talked about the importance of confidence building, and making institutions work in light of Taiwan's dysfunctional government. I think he's right that focusing on these aspects is the key to promoting stability.
Agreed. Although it might be nice if he had forthrightly stated that Taiwan's government is paralyzed by the Blues, not by some basic problem with Taiwan.
Michael
I've noticed that a lot of foreigners seem to be pro-independece. Why is that so?
ReplyDeleteProbably because it is the ethically, morally, and historically correct position.
What about economic growth? Pramatism? Realpolitik?
Are there sites featuring views of foreigners with pro-indepence views?
Not specifically. The blogosphere for both foreigners and locals tends to be more Green than Blue.
curious ... Do you think think the way they do because of their socialization in their homeland? As my study tries to humbly show, the longer foreigners have been here the greener in political outlook they are. If socialization has anthing to do with political inclinations, then is it socialization too in Taiwan, or merely because they are older?
I think it's interesting how no one really talks about the pro's of unification here -- like how it's sort might be an inevitable process because of the way the world's working now, in a post-cold war world, in a nuclear age, at the dawn of China's rise.
The reason nobody talks about pros is that there aren't any. There is nothing that Taiwan can get from China by being annexed to it that it can't get by being its own state.
Yes, I'm also afraid that there would be inevitable negative repurcussions unification. But one must not forget that for China, Taiwan is the last vestige of the humiliation from imperialist powers. Its nationalism is partly based on Taiwan recovery. This reason alone would make China totally unwilling to give up Taiwan. So what can Taiwan get for becoming annexed? perhaps the assurance that Taiwan won't get nuked by Beijing, the island's economic integration and formal inclusion into the world system would may make it better off.
I think that other tiger economies have figured out a way to make money off of China's prominence, but Taiwan seemed to miss the boat on that meaure.
I think you are very uninformed. Taiwan at the moment has investments of over $100 billion and runs a massive trade surplus with China. Korea and Taiwan run trade surpluses of about equal size. Taiwan actually ran the largest surplus with China of any nation in 2005.
That's right. Fortunately we don't have Wal-mart here ... yet. The difference between Taiwan and the other economies is that the economic relationship is too assymetric and isn't sustainable. Formal economic institutions are also lacking, which would help repatriate the profits from investments made in China by Taiwan firms to Tawian. To have a huge trade surplus with China is precisely Beijing's strategy -- too squeeze out Taiwan's comparative advantages and make it wholly dependent on China as a trade partner.
With the way the economy is going, and the corruption ridden government, I sometimes wonder if Taiwan might be better off.
That's ridiculous. Taiwan's corruption is nothing compared to China's.
Yes, but China's not claiming to be a democracy.
For Taiwan's economic well-being, and therefore political well-being, perhaps an economic union with China, similar to the EU might be promising.
Well, at the moment, as noted, there is neither an economic nor political case to be made for it. Any economic argument for Taiwan applies equally to any nation that trades with China (heck, you should argue for annexation of the US to China for that reason! Trade deficit gone!). The economic "arguments" are simply hidden propaganda for Chinese expansionism.
But history shows that China's not really an expansionist power. I think it's important to think about China's views on this. It views Taiwan independence as a security threat both in its ability to incite other independence like that in Tibet or Xinjiang and it sees Taiwan as a base for imperialists' interests.