Should Chen Step Down?

Two of my students clown for the camera.

Some thoughts on the recent indictments of Taiwan's First Lady, Wu Shu-jen, and the crisis surrounding President Chen. Observations in no particular order, take with one grain of NaCl.

WHAT WE ARE BEING ASKED TO BELIEVE

How dumb is the First Family? Actually, any way you slice it, they have to be pretty stupid. That's one of the problems everyone has in accepting any of the claims. The First Family claims essentially that it submitted its own family receipts because the accounting office wanted receipts, any receipts. That's just silly. You can imagine their conversations:

PRESIDENT CHEN: Hi honey! Listen, I gave our contact in Shanghai NT$200,000 today. And I sent another $50,000 to the US to our favorite lobbying firm. You know, the one that rhymes with "Tasaday."
FIRST LADY WU: NT$200,000? How are we going to cover that?
CHEN: Well, there are those diamond rings I bought you. I think one of them was over $300,000.
WU: But Pooh-pooh! I was saving those rings for something really serious!
CHEN: This is serious! And stop calling me Pooh-pooh! You know I hate that name! Can we scrape up the receipts?
WU: I don't know. Look, I have them carefully sorted into these shoeboxes. The red one is for even numbers. The yellow one is for numbers less than NT$300. The black one is for numbers divisible by 7.
CHEN: And the gray one?
WU: Prime numbers.

Chen claimed that the First Family has been collecting its receipts and submitting them year after year to cover the expenses of the government's secret diplomatic slush fund. It sounds impossible until you start to think about it -- who on earth hasn't collected a bogus receipt to submit on a good faith expense? Another point in Chen's favor is that the prosecutors admit that this explanation is actually true in two of the six cases. But think how naive this makes the First Family: in a political environment where the opposition parties are wholly unscrupulous, driven by visceral hate, and waiting eagerly to take their heads, the Chen Family la-la-la breezily submits its own receipts for a secret slush fund as if the bureaucracy isn't honeycombed with Blue supporters. Hello! Chen Family! Are there any brain cells still alive in there? According to the Chen Family's own account, they are so dumb, nobody has to set them up -- they did it all on their own. I hereby disown them as relatives.

One of the department's brightest and most interesting students.

The prosecutor's claim is even sillier -- that the First Family stole the money and then submitted receipts for the theft. Just think about those conversations:

ACCOUNTANT: ....and how much money did you steal today, Ms. Wu?
FIRST LADY WU: Well, let's see. Here's the receipt for our night on the town. And here is the NT$129 one for some magazines. This one is for the diapers.
ACCOUNTANT: Quite a haul! Anything else?
WU: [gushes] Yes! Look! Pooh-pooh bought me a diamond ring out of the state funds. NT $300,000! Isn't it beautiful?
ACCOUNTANT: Pooh-pooh?
WU: [clears throat] The President purchased a gift for the First Lady.

Of course, the prosecutor's position is that the three accountants and the Chen Family were all in it together to steal $NT14.8 million, or about as much as Chen made in a couple of years of private practice when he was one of Taiwan's most successful lawyers. Since some would have to be kicked back to the accountants, the actual sum appropriated by the Chens would have to be even less.

My kids light firecrackers for Guy Fawkes Day. In the Taiwan expat community, it's always someone's holiday.

When you think about, the prosecutor's claim is quite bizarre. Nobody steals money and then submits a receipt for what they actually stole. In the real world people submit bogus receipts that look good on the surface, don't direct attention to the stolen items, and are essentially untraceable. The pattern of real-world fiscal impropriety would be more like this:

PROSECUTOR: Now, this receipt here says that you gave $5,000 to the Guatemalan government for a new school.
CHEN: Yes, that's correct.
FIRST LADY: I handed the money to the Ambassador myself.
PROSECUTOR: And here, that you gave another $2,000 for the same school.
CHEN: Sure.
PROSECUTOR: Unfortunately, there's no record of such a school being built. The Guatemalan government denies ever receiving the money. Do you have any proof that you handed over that money to them?
CHEN: [thinking]: Ohhh shhiiiiiittttttt.....
PROSECUTOR: You didn't pocket that money, did you?
CHEN: Who? Me? Well.....
FIRST LADY: [cries out] Pooh-pooh!

You decide: did Chen Shui-bian, who is extremely intelligent and is an experienced lawyer with many years of administrative experience in government, would submit real receipts for real stolen items?

Whoops! That one got stuck in low-lying vegetation!

Of course the receipts are bogus -- it's a slush fund designated for hush-hush work! The question is where the money went. Chen will not say and simply asks everyone to trust him when he says it was spent on secret foreign affairs. Apparently, though, there's a whole contingent of people out there who think that President Chen really ought to supply receipts for the secret diplomatic activity he claims he spent the money on. You can imagine those conversations:

PRESIDENT CHEN: Here you go! US$10,000, as promised.
BORIS THE SPY: Thank you. [counts]. All here!
CHEN: Can I have a receipt?
BORIS: Say what? A what?
CHEN: A receipt. Under the laws passed a couple of years back, I have to submit a detailed accounting of all monies spent. Sorry! Here's a copy of my invoice. Have you had a chop made yet?
BORIS: [spluttering]Invoice! Chop! Are you serious? Look, Pooh-pooh, read my lips: No. Receipt.
CHEN: Huh? What? How do you know about Pooh-pooh?
BORIS: I'm a spy, aren't I?

The prosecutor running the investigation, Eric Chen, has a strong and longstanding reputation for integrity and independence. Apparently he has no evidence that either Chen or his wife have pocketed the money; the indictment is essentially for falsifying receipts. The presumption is that since the receipts are bogus the cash must have been nicked. So....where's the money?

You decide: did one of Taiwan's most independent and intelligent prosecutors really claim that the Chen Family submitted receipts for what it actually stole?

What's really going on? There's plenty of undercurrents to troll through......

Third year students extend their greetings across the building.

To understand this, we have to review all the familiar ingredients of the Blue Pesticide Formula: 1. Demand Recall. 2. Run Faux Protests 3. Stoke Local Pro-Blue Media 4. Dupe International Media. 5. Repeat until pest is eliminated or term expires. Some of the underlying issues, in no particular order........

INSTITUTIONS

One of the most important issues that lies behind the six year struggle of the KMT to suppress Chen Shui-bian has been the sex of Taiwan's government: Presidential or Parliamentary? In the 1990s President Lee Teng-hui had several changes made to the Constitution, most of which extended the power of the Presidency, to enable him to protect Taiwan's emerging democracy and suppress challenges to that and to his own power from the authoritarians then still powerful in the island's politics.

One change of Lee's made the premier the appointee of the President rather than the legislature, another made the Presidency directly elected. I would argue that a structural feature of Taiwan's politics is that the DPP has an innate advantage in the race for the Presidency, since it is elected by popular and majority vote, while the KMT, with its longtime links to local business, organized crime, and neighborhood and village chiefs, has the advantage in local elections. The DPP has had great difficulty establishing a broad-based local presence. This means that in a parliamentary system with a weak president, the advantage will probably go to the Blues (as it currently does); but in a Presidential system with a powerful President, the advantage may go to the DPP. Hence, one of the KMT's main goals for the last six years has been to hem in and reduce the power of the presidency, and replace the presidentially-appointed premier with a premier elected from the Blue-dominated legislature; or failing that, with a Blue premier, period. Note that the talk of Chen stepping down has produced more talk of Wang Jin-pyng, the dapper KMT Machine politician and current speaker of the legislature, being moved up to premier. Since changing the Constitution now requires a public referendum and is enormously difficult, the Blue team must content itself with gutting the Presidency.

As if further proof of this weren't required, the Blues have already promised that they will go after Annette Lu when she takes command. Kudos to the Foreigner in Formosa for spotting this: the China Post, the local pro-KMT English paper reported the other day:

"People First Party Chairman James] Soong said that it's also imperative for [President Chen's] ruling Democratic Progressive Party and opposition parties to hold a summit to discuss the rights and obligations an acting president should have."

In other words, it is clear that the Blues are going to let Lu be as little a President as possible -- indeed, they will define her as the ACTING President though she will fully be the President, just as Ford was after Nixon resigned.

Singing to the lunch crowd in the cafe at the university.

INSTITUTIONALIZED CORRUPTION

In Taiwan more than 6,000 public officials have the right to receive a special account from the government for use on government business. They may place that money in their personal accounts, and need only supply receipts for half of it. The effect of this on institutionalization of corruption in Taiwan is profound; everyone who is anyone essentially has their own money in little brown bags from the central government with no need to account for it. Thus, few believe Chen when he says he hasn't spent the money on himself, because so many officials abuse those funds.

A further issue is that under previous presidents and premiers no receipts were necessary -- the authoritarian-in-chief needed merely to sign on his own authority. After Chen came to power the rules were changed so that the president had to provide receipts for use of the special funds --probably a deliberate move to curb Chen's power. Thus for the past five years Chen has had to come up with receipts for that spending, and his claim is that he used his family's receipts to account for the spending, and did this every year for the past five years. The Blues and the prosecutors claim that the Chen Family stole the money and then submitted receipts for the theft.

That receipts have been bogus for the last five years and caused no trouble prior to this year is a very suggestive fact. Of course, despite the fact that a number of previous presidents and premiers are still around, Chen is the only one indicted for problems with the slush funds. I guess not having to provide receipts means never having to say you're sorry.

Consider also how common bogus receipts and kickbacks are in Taiwan society. I have close friends who put everything on the company expense accounts -- groceries, gas, an even out with friends. I have another friend who regularly shakes down her circle of acquaintances for receipts from the toll booths on the highway, which she then submits to her company accountants for reimbursement for trips she never took. When the prosecutors claim that Chen stole money by receipt forgery, they are describing the daily experience of life on the Beautiful Isle for many, many Taiwanese. It is hard for anyone to believe Chen's claims here, given the widespread forgery of receipts.

"Amy, do you know what that shirt says?" "No. What?"

HISTORY

Let's not forget: the KMT and PFP have been trying to get Chen recalled since he became president; indeed, after he ascended to the post, the Blues changed the rules to make it easier to recall the President. When Chen canceled the nuclear plant, they immediately threatened to have him recalled. This is not an isolated incident, but part of a larger pattern of attacks on Chen and the Presidency that go back many years, in fact to when he was mayor of Taipei in the 1990s and the KMT hijacked the protests of the legalized prostitutes at Chen's attempt to shut them down, which then went on for 18 months, damaging his chances to get re-elected in 1998. They also threatened to recall him then. Recall-and-protest is not something that was invented by Shih Ming-teh in the last three months.

Earplugs: great stress reducers.

CHINA

Speculation: One thing Chen said is that the Taiwan government is apparently making payments to dissidents in China out of the slush fund (dissidents were furious about this, apparently). Readers are of course aware that the KMT in Taiwan and the CCP in China are currently coordinating their policies to suppress the DPP. One aspect of this prosecution is that it looks a lot like a fishing expedition into the secret diplomatic account so that China can see who is getting Taiwanese money.

Who is the snake in this situation?

LOCAL POLITICS

The timing of the indictments was extremely fortuitous for the KMT and its ally the PFP. Readers may recall that the news had recently been dominated by the US de facto ambassador publicly dressing down the Blue team for holding up the arms purchase in the legislature and for behaving like babies at the October 10 National Day celebrations in Taipei. The Blues had also taken a beating from the partisan protests led by former DPP chairman and current Blue ally Shih Ming-te discussed earlier here. Shih's protesters consisted almost entirely of Blues, and each day they were out causing a ruckus in Taipei they caused public perceptions of the Blues to collapse -- Taipei and Kaohsiung, the two main cities, are having key mayoral elections, and the KMT candidate for Taipei Mayor, Hau Lung-bin, saw his support slide 16 points during the protests. With the indictments of Wu and essentially, President Chen, support for Hau and the Blues rebounded instantly, and revived Shih's protests as well, which had been DOA since the embarrassing incidents that took place on Oct 10, as well as since Shih's attacks on KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou for not supporting him.

The conventional wisdom has it that this is a good thing -- that an independent prosecutor indicting the wife of a sitting President will be good for Taiwan's democracy. I remain skeptical. When I see the Blue leadership under similar indictments for much greater crimes -- not even a single person has been indicted for the White Terror killings -- then perhaps we can say things have progressed.

If you read carefully the stories circulating about the rings, you'll find that the Control Yuan is the one requesting that Chen supply them with more verification regarding why the rings weren't on his asset declaration. Some of you might recall that the Control Yuan has been on ice for some time, as the Blue-dominated legislature has refused to confirm Chen's slate of candidates for its highest posts. For the same reason, there is also no national chief prosecutor. I know some of the more paranoid among you are already asking how long this set-up has been in preparation.

The Blues have now introduced another recall motion into the legislature, the third. With the swirl of accusations around Chen, hardly anyone has noticed the fact that four of the five branches of government -- the defunded Examination Yuan, the Control Yuan, the Legislature, and the Executive, are essentially deeply impaired. No one is paying attention to the bills that now sit in the legislature, unexamined. Governance? Every minute that the island is well-governed is one more minute its independence is established. Why the constant ruckus? Another long-term Blue goal is to make it appear as if the island cannot govern itself, to help pave the way for international acceptance of annexation to China.

Ji-ji town in Nantou.

RESIGN AND ITS.....LU!

If the current Vice President, Annette Lu, becomes President, look for plenty of talk in the international media about what a hothead and fiery independence radical she is. This will of course echo the "Mad Chen" smear of President Chen, the bogeyman who has inhabited so many media portrayals for so long ("Watch out! He could declare independence and start a war AT ANY MOMENT!"). Lu is an intelligent, pragmatic, and independent politician who says what she thinks. She is forceful and energetic, and would probably make a fine president under other circumstances. She used to be abused for her eccentric dress and independence of mind -- much of that is simply the gendered nature of political discourse that every educated person knows so well -- the independent woman is a madwoman, the independent man is strong -- but she now dresses quite nattily. Still speaks her mind, though. Dollars to donuts she'll be a credit to her side.

Will Chen resign? He is intensely stubborn and high-handed. Although it is not often seen, there is an immense reservoir of support for Chen out there in the silent majority, especially outside of Taipei -- as a pundit noted last month, 2002 DPP mayoral candidate Li Ying-yuan never polled over 20% in the last Taipei mayoral election, but he got 37% of the votes. For all the disgusted commentary heard about Chen in the international media, there is a Taiwanese out there disgusted at the way things have worked out for Chen, but not being heard. Don't underestimate Chen's ability to tap that. It will be an uphill climb, but it can be done. Just yesterday when I walked into class here in central Taiwan there was a knot of students discussing whether they should wear green in a show of support for Chen. For many locals, Chen is their man, and they will stand by him. My polling is running about 50-50 for and against stepping down. Of course, my students mostly know I am pro-Green, so I might be skewing the results.

Another issue in any putative resignation is that Chen must surely be aware that a resignation will not stop the Blues from continuing their attacks on the Presidency and on the democracy side. As noted before, the KMT and PFP alliance has already signaled it will go after Annette Lu. What, exactly, will a Chen resignation solve? It isn't going to change corruption, or stop the attacks on the DPP. It might not even help the election of DPP candidates, as many argue -- because the prosecutors will immediately go after him, keeping it in the news. You know CTI will be there 24-7 with images of the Chen Trial. The agony is never going to end: the principal goal of the Blue team is, after all, to terminate the democracy side and annex the island to China. Any one who thinks that the Blues are going to operate on good faith if Chen resigns is living in a fairy tale world. After all, the PFP, failing to have the President recalled, wanted to bring down the premier, in order to have the President dismiss the legislature, so they could get a new legislature, in order to....bring down the President.

Now the question of questions: should Chen resign? At the moment, I am leaning no but could be convinced of yes. I think this should have a few more days to play out -- I don't know how many more rabbits Chen has left in his hat, but surely there must be at least one or two (his speech is online, judge for yourself). I was greatly encouraged when the TSU legislators voted to reject their party's demand that they vote with the recall motion. Surely it must be dawning on wiser heads that this is more complex than an investigation into corruption. The DPP is incredibly fractious, but in the end, threats and blandishments may bring its unruly membership to heel. Will Chen sink the DPP? Time will tell, but unfortunately the decision on him must be made soon.

Sadly, the issue here isn't corruption and never was -- the KMT and its allies don't give a fig about corruption. Rather, this indictment is driven by many things, from the visceral hatred of the Blues for Chen Shui-bian, hated usurper President of "their" ROC, to institutional and local political issues, to the Confucian Ideal of the Virtuous Leader [Note to KF: I'm waiting....]. Whatever happens, one thing is for sure: politics on the Beautiful Isle is enough to make the alcoholic sober, and the sober, alcoholic. See ya at the whiskey store!

[Taiwan] [KMT] [Democracy] [DPP] [PFP] [media] [US] [China] [Ma Ying-jeou] [Chen Shui-bian] [corruption]