NUC Decision

ESWN has saved me a lot of trouble by rounding up a number of articles and opinions on Chen Shui-bian's scrapping of the NUC in both the world and Hong Kong papers.. One piece discusses the political opinions of Hong Kong newspapers. He also rounds up some of the Hong Kong newspaper stuff, including an op-ed in the Hong Kong Apple Daily that appears to be somewhat understanding of Chen's position. The writer argues:

Besides, it is still the mainstream in popular opinion in Taiwan and the political forces in Taiwan to maintain the status quo. It is still the mainstream to have neither unification nor independence and avoid any deterioration in relationships. Even if President Chen Shui-bian and the Democratic Progressive Party hope to try harder to advance Taiwan independence, they will not have the support of the Legislature, they will not have the support of the other political parties and they will not be able to pass through all the political and constitutional hurdles. In the end, Taiwan will still remain in the balanced state of neither unification nor independence. In other words, Mr. Chen Shui-bian and the Democratic Progressive Party government are only able to create a bit of noise and inconvenience without causing any material impact to the state of relationships between the sides of the strait. The Beijing government ought not react strongly to these little movements by Mr. Chen and the Democratic Progressive Party, and they should not abandon the efforts to promote exchange and improve relationships between the two sides.

Actually, the more ideal and progressive way is for the Beijing government to begin communication with the Democratic Progressive Party and even Chen Shui-bian without any pre-conditions and to begin a dialogue. It can be seen that Mr. Chen and the Democratic Progressive Party are making all these small movements because they have strong Taiwan independence leanings, but more because they have been excluded and marginalized in the communication and dialogue between the two sides of the strait. So Mr. Chen and the Democratic Progressive Party had to make various kinds of noise and different kinds of small movements in order to show that they are a force that must not be ignored. If the Beijing government continues to treat Mr. Chen and the Democratic Progressive Party as "absent" (冇 到 ) and shut them out of the communication, the latter can only create even more noise and trouble. Even if these noises and troubles may not trigger off conflicts, it will make it hard for cross-strait relations to de-froze and turn for the better fully.

I think it is comical to refer to Beijing's "efforts to promote exchange and improve relationships between the two sides" as though any such efforts actually existed. Beijing, as the next paragraph concedes, won't even talk to Chen, and continues to build up its military to attack Taiwan. It would be nice if it did make an effort to improve relations, but it is hard to see how, since China's ultimate goal is to blot Taiwan out, while Taiwan's ultimate goal is to live in an independent nation with a democracy. That twain won't meet, ever. ESWN also cites three polls on the topic, but regrettably uses a Chinese-owned foreign rag, the Apple Daily, and two KMT-supporting papers for his sources.

Meanwhile, here in Taiwan, some deft diplomacy seems to have placated the US. The Taipei Times says:

The US said it was satisfied with the way that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) dealt with the National Unification Council and guidelines on Monday, saying that his action in mothballing the council did not amount to a unilateral change in the status quo, thus satisfying Washington's main concern in relation to the dispute.

"We welcome President Chen's reaffirmation of his administration's commitment to cross-strait peace and stability, and Taiwan's commitment to the pledges that President Chen made in his inaugural address to not unilaterally alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait," White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters in Washington.

Chen's decision "did not abolish the National Unification Council," McClellan said.

Somebody in Washington must have realized that their response to a US$30 budget item was slightly crazed, compared to the Anti-succession Law and 800 missiles, while it seems to have dawned on Chen what he was gambling with. Meanwhile, back in Wonderland:

According to Ereli, Chen's words amounted to "freezing" the unification mechanism, an acceptable compromise between the conflicting desires of Chen and Washington.

So everyone can go home, the US can imagine that Chen hasn't abolished the NUC, Chen can behave as if it is abolished, and the Emperor can get a whole new set of clothes, even better than the ones he just paraded around in.

One interesting assessment of the NUC and National Unification Guidelines (NUG) came in this article from Taiwan News:

Chang Jung-feng, vice president of the China Institute of Economic Research, said the NUG and NUC were initiated by former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) in 1990 to facilitate Taiwan's democratization, constitutional reform aimed at ending a state of war with China, and expanded cross-strait exchanges that started after Lee assumed the presidency.

Chang, who was engaged as CIER vice president after retiring from the post of deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council (國家安全會議), said the NUG and NUC are no longer necessary after Taiwan has attained those goals.

In fact, Beijing was once critical of the NUG and NUC, pointing to them as major obstacles to China's unification with Taiwan, and as efforts by Taiwan to push for its memberships in international organizations as an independent political entity, Chang said.

According to the NUG, cross-strait exchange may start after the two sides no longer deny each other as political entities, and direct cross-strait links may be realized after the two sides have set up official channels for their communication. Cross-strait relations would not have been so close if the NUG were enforced, Chang said.

The international media basically echoed all this. K. Hille over at the Financial Times, reported the same line:

Officials said the statement was the result of close consultations with the US, and the government did not expect Washington to reprimand Mr Chen for his step.

“The State Department might re-state their China policy and remind both sides not to unilaterally change the status quo, but they will not criticise us,” said a senior official.

“And I don’t expect US president George W. Bush to come up with anything harsh against Taiwan when he meets with Hu Jintao next month.”

Mr Chen’s move is a step towards strengthening Taiwan’s de-facto independence against growing challenges, officials said.

Most interesting was this last comment in the above article from Joseph Wu...

Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s top China policy official, said that after China enshrined its sovereignty claim over and its threat of military force against Taiwan in an “anti-secession law” a year ago, the balance across the Strait had continuously tilted in the mainland’s favour.

“Taiwan is in danger of being sucked into China’s orbit, and the mainland has adopted a ‘creeping annexation’,” he said.

“By trying to adopt a harder approach, we are trying to counter this and Beijing’s tactics not to deal with our elected government.

“If we are successful, China might see that their united front tactics may not work for the rest of the president’s remaining time in office.”

The term "United Front" of course refers to the time when the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party cooperated against the invading Japanese in WWII. Wu is engaging in a subtle pointing out, and putting down, of current KMT coordination of its policy with Beijing.

At the moment, things seem to have blown over. We'll see what the April visit of Hu to Washington brings, and whether in the meantime China makes some small anti-Taiwan gestures in response. As Jason at Wandering to Tamshui pointed out to me in a private email, both the NT$ and the stock market went up after the announcement. So perhaps we can all amuse ourselves watching Ma Ying-jeou making dumb, contradictory comments.......

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