KMT to PFP: You will be assimilated

Much attention is focused on the struggle between the pro-China pan-Blue alliance and the pro-democracy pan-Green alliance of the DPP and TSU, but an interesting sidebar to the main feast is the ongoing attempt by the KMT to re-absorb the PFP members it lost when James Soong split the party.

The "cooperation" between the KMT and the PFP has basically been on KMT terms, as recent discussions between the two parties show:

People First Party Legislator Liu Wen-hsiung (劉文雄) criticized as "banditry" the concept of "total quantity control" to guide the nomination of pan-blue candidates for year-end elections as proposed by the Kuomintang.

"Four years ago the PFP experienced the same negotiation with KMT over (selecting joint) nominees for magistrate and mayoral races," Liu recalled. The result of those talks, Liu said, was that no PFP members were nominated in an effort to unify the pan-blue camp around one ticket.

Liu added that the KMT had again proposed the concept for this year's Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral and council races this time.

Great cooperation, eh? It is incredible that the PFP trusts the KMT to hold up its side of any bargain (hint: complete the phrase: there is no honor among ________ ). And this year, the KMT is blithely proposing to do it again:

KMT official Liao Feng-te (廖風德) said that based on the "total quantity control" idea, the PFP should reduce the number of its nominees for the city council races because some PFP members, including Taipei City Councilor Wang Hsin-yi, have defected to the KMT in recent weeks.

The KMT official contended that the KMT also should have the right to name one more candidate for the city councilor election representing the pan-blue alliance after Wang joined the party.

According to Liao's plan, the "total quantity control" idea would mean that each pan-blue party should nominate as many candidates as it has seats in the current councils. Including Wang, Liao argued the KMT could choose 21 candidates to run, the PFP could nominate eight and the New Party could select five.

And the cooperation between the two? Settled by negotiation, right? No, dictated by the KMT:

"The two parties' secretary-generals will exchange views on the issue of nomination," KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said yesterday. But Ma also disclosed that the KMT had completed a plan on how it would name its candidates for the councilor election, suggesting the party had already decided on a nomination process prior to talking to the PFP.

The interesting thing is this: because the reforms of the legislature have made it smaller, the smaller parties cannot compete for seats as well as the large ones. This means that the PFP and the TSU will likely disappear in the next few years as national political forces, remaining viable only at the local level of city and county bodies. The new legislature:

.....would result in a 113-seat body [down from current 225 - MT]. Each district would have but one legislator. Voters would be given two ballots: one for the candidates in the voter's district, and one for political parties. 73 of the seats would be filled by direct popular vote, with 34 seats being allocated to parties and 6 seats allocated to members of Taiwan's indigenous tribes. The legislators would be elected to four-year terms, one year longer than under the present system.

Not enough attention has been given to an interesting fact: while the pan-Blues have a majority in the legislature, the largest single body in the legislature is in fact the DPP, with 92 seats. Further, despite the loss in the recent 3-in-1 elections, the DPP actually increased its representation on local city and county councils. This implies that the party may well be able to increase its representation in the legislature as well in the 2006 elections.[David notes below that next elections are in 2007]. The KMT drive to re-absorb the other pan-Blues may actually reduce its chances of retaining control of the legistature by cannibalizing seats controlled by its allies.

UPDATE: The pro-KMT China Post has an editorial on the Blue split that gives a good view of the KMT position:

Owing to their similar values, the PFP and the KMT have been allies and, together with the New Party, have formed the so-called "pan-blue" coalition. However, they have had to compete for the same voters, so their relationship has been close but sometimes tense.

Supporters of the "pan-blue" coalition have long urged that the two parties merge, but unfortunately efforts made in this regard have been unsuccessful. The main obstacle, as observers have pointed out, is Soong's attitude. A growing number of "pan-blue" backers accuse Soong of being a negative influence on "pan-blue" unity.

The PFP leader has on many occasions expressed the hope that his party and the KMT will cooperate closely and even merge, but has never really worked seriously to realize the goal. This has disappointed supporters of the coalition and has hurt Soong's own reputation, resulting in the decline of the PFP as a political force.

This state of affairs and what has been referred to as the "Ma Ying-jeou phenomenon" led to the KMT's overwhelming victory in the 3-in-1 local elections last December, while the PFP retained only one seat. The smaller opposition party now faces a crisis as its core members rush to join the KMT in an effort to maintain their voter support.

The possibility that Soong will run in the election for Taipei mayor this year has further increased the motivation for PFP members to depart. It is commonly believed that Soong, despite his past glories, stands little chance of winning the mayoral election.

If the former Taiwan governor insists on running, he will see more of his party's stalwarts walk out on him.

[Taiwan] [KMT] [PFP] [DPP]