I don't know about anyone else, but if the election continues in this vein, I'll be ordering my irony meters by the case. If Wang is getting people brought in on buses for him, that's a strong sign that the party leadership favors him. And that my analysis is wrong, and that of David at Jujuflop and others is right. David had commented on a previous entry of mine on this topic:The Ma camp is concerned that large numbers of "nominal" party members -- non-paying members who will be permitted to vote -- will be carted to the poll in large numbers by the Wang camp to influence the outcome. He has also insisted in the past week that surveillance cameras should be placed in polling stations.
Adding to the dispute, it was discovered on Thursday that the party's regional headquarters had sent out voting notices to 6,818 party members in Yunlin County, of which KMT headquarters later decided only about 1,800 were entitled to vote.
"The KMT is still appealing one of its two presidential election lawsuits. What right do we have to do this if our own election has discrepancies?" Ma asked.
However, I'm not sure I have the same take as you on the KMT elections (i've been meaning to write it up before the 16th): I see Wang as the KMT insider, and Ma as the outsider. I believe most of the senior KMT members support Wang (wherever they were born), and it's only the rank-and-file KMT mainlanders who support Ma (Oh, and the 18-year-old girls, obviously).So perhaps we should all be looking forward to a Wang win....on that note, I caught this Wang poster on a corner in Hsinchu. The poster says that Wang is against Taiwan Independence, and also says that he will defend the nation to his last breath. In his debates with Ma he has emphasized Party direction and policy, but here the poster goes directly to the main doubts about him: he is a Taiwanese, and many in the KMT are suspicious of having a Taiwanese leader.
Wang will defend the ROC to the death.
This leads to a question I'd like to toss out into the blogsphere, chum to the sharks. If Ma is defeated by the concerted action of the Party leadership, what does that mean for his long-term chances of running as the KMT candidate for the Presidency? Maybe insiders won't have the feckless Mayor Ma, and maybe they are staging this to free up Ma for a Presidential run in 2008 (but so elaborate a charade?).
UPDATE: As the election nears, the Taipei Times reports that Ma, the mayor of is going to deny Wang supporters a permit to protest in front of the Presidential Palace.
Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平 ), yesterday announced that it is applying to hold a campaign rally in front of the Presidential Office on the eve of the party's July 16 chairmanship election. In reply however, the Taipei City government, led by Wang's competitor, Taipei mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九 ), said that it plans to turn down the request.
[Taiwan]
I think there are big problems with this election - but remember it is the first KMT election, so part of it is 'growing pains'.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, the decision to let all the 1-million 'nominal' KMT members vote is pretty dodgy: the majority of these members haven't paid their membership, so can't be considered real members (e.g. I wonder how many PFP voters there are in that crowd?). If Wang can get a lot of these lapsed members to vote (I wonder what inducement they need?), then he'll probably win.
I suspect that whoever wins this race will be the KMT presidential candidate. The KMT is still very heirarchical, and if the KMT chair wants to run for president, I don't think anyone in the KMT will be able to stop him.
If Ma loses, then I don't really know where he goes. Will he stay as a loyal KMT member, or will he feel that he's been shut out by the KMT leaders and leave (I think this race has been weighted against him from the start)?
I find it hard to imagine that he'll leave -- that would take spine. And where would he go? The New Party is a bad joke, and the PFP is the personal fief of James Soong. Although maybe he could take up a position with the PFP as heir apparent....
ReplyDeleteRemember, he's left once before: after he was dumped as Justice minister, he left politics and had to be induced back to run for mayor. I suspect he might consider the same ... and wait for the KMT to come knocking.
ReplyDeleteI agree, I can't see him jumping to the PFP as it stands now.
Hmm...I always thought he was just playing games when he quit the first time.
ReplyDeleteWhich reminds me -- do you know how the KMT is defining membership for the election? I mean, if I paid dues in the 1970s, do I count as a member? I can think of many old and middle aged people who have been party members at some point....
As long as you haven't been kicked out of the party, or suspended for not paying your membership fee, you can vote. Because the KMT finances are a mess, I think hardly anyone has been suspended for non-payment - 30 years of non-payment may be pushing it a bit though. I do wonder about PFP members (heh, and TSU members!) who defected from the KMT in 1999/2000 - i bet the majority just let their KMT membership lapse, but are still officially on the books.
ReplyDelete