Sanity Break: Weekend in the Rift

Rift time, a two day sanity break on the beautiful side roads of Hualien and Taitung, one of the best rides I've done. Click on READ MORE below for absolute acres of imagery.

KMT Primary is here! Hung hits Youtube....

The KMT announced that its primary poll would begin today and the results would be announced on Sunday night. Meanwhile KMT deputy speaker of the legislature and its sole and only Presidential primacy candidate Hung Hsiu-chu, my Fiery Little Chili Pepper, is off campaigning in Taichung.

I'll be out biking this weekend on the east coast and looking forward with great interest to Sunday's poll. Meanwhile enjoy this campaign video Hung's campaign threw together, with her song (h/t Solidarity.tw). Looks like while her policies are following Ma, her campaign will be replicating Sean Lien's campaign for Taipei mayor.
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Youtube response to recent song about foreign men + sex

A sad song drew this beautiful response from a smart, tough lady.
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

The Rational Party is Hung

Lanyu. Miss it so much.

This week sole KMT presidential primary candidate, deputy speaker Hung Hsiu-chu was on display making a case for why she should have the nomination despite the fact that she most likely isn't going to win. The Taipei Times described:

Hung is to be nominated if she has 30 percent support in the polls, otherwise the party will draft another candidate, presumably Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), who said he felt it incumbent upon him to run if the KMT nominates him.

WantWant and Taipei Times covered her speech to the KMT's Central Standing Committee (Solidarity.tw has complete translation). Her speech is indicative of why she won't win, with coded attacks on democracy and little if any concrete policy ideas, illuminated by the kind of rigid KMT ideological thinking and vocabulary we've just had eight years of. Can't wait to see reporters hit her with questions about where she differs with Ma Ying-jeou, because she is selling exactly the same product...

From WantWant:

In the only campaign presentation arranged by the KMT Central Standing Committee, the only candidate qualified to run in the KMT's presidential primary also said that if elected, she would sign a cross-strait peace agreement.

If elected, Hung said, she would make the care of the underprivileged one of her main pillars. She said she would follow the "four gives" — giving people confidence, happiness, hope and convenience.

The four gives -- satirized by netizens who said that Hung was quite technology-oriented, since she offered 4G -- is a great idea, but note the paragraph in which she mentioned a "peace" agreement. After she slammed the DPP for its independence (which she calls separatist so now you know her doctrinaire views on Taiwan's status) views (Solidarity):

So, with the DPP using the false packaging of the status quo to hide Taiwanese independence consciousness, we must sign a cross-strait peace agreement to guarantee cross-strait peace, the nation’s safety, and the expansion of its international space. So at this time when the DPP is using an incorrect political orientation to bring about the closing off of our country, we should use the space brought by the peace framework we have created to win acceptance to the economic cooperation organizations that are the TPP and RCEP, and use the establishment of free economic zones and the opening of the educational marketplace to attract elites from all over the world and inject all-new vitality in our national development.

There is nothing new here. Even Ma has said that a "peace" agreement would have to wait, because the public isn't ready for it. But look at Hung. Not only is she to the right of Ma ("Peace" agreement NOW!) but she's replicating his unpopular Free Economic Zones policy, and when she talks about opening the education marketplace (note -- her description of it as a "marketplace") I'd bet money it is Chinese students she has in mind, primarily. But she goes on...(Solidarity)

We advocate amending relevant laws to align Taiwan’s systems with the rest of the world, reduce systemic barriers, and make Taiwan’s marketplace an international option again, winning international favor once again. At the same time, we must use the peace dividend created by cross-strait peace to attract international capital, allow Taiwan to fully exploit its advantageous geographical relationships, create job opportunities, and make the pie bigger. With full economic development and the nation’s wealth constantly piling up, we can take another step to truly realize distributive justice via the tax system.

It's a rosy picture, but there's a total lack of specifics. For example, does "aligning Taiwan's systems" mean that we'll get rid of the ridiculous Republic of China official year system? Or is this some rubric under which she recognizes Chinese degrees? I'm guessing the latter.

She is also pro-nuclear, and will run on that platform. Good. The public is increasingly anti-nuclear. The one thing that did make sense was her proposal to scrap carbon-emitting power systems. Vague, but I heartily approve.

Solidarity flagged some of her coded KMT lingo. Here's some that caught my eye:

• "With the DPP using populist tricks to constantly incite social hatred" (divide and rule ethnic policies are a KMT staple, and the KMT invented a whole ethnic group, the waishenren ("outside the province", post-49 mainlanders) which it cultivates to this day. Blaming ethnic divisions on the DPP is bog-standard KMT propaganda. One only need look at the mainlander politicians who comprise Ma's cabinet and Administration to see the KMT's ethnic chauvinism at work.
• "Many people with noble aspirations* are anxious because they have seen much disorder and chaos in Taiwanese society, and even moreso, the kitsch and populism of its political parties and politics commonly causing a lack of distinction between right and wrong and the throwing of values into chaos." It's a common KMT political propaganda claim that the nation is in chaos because of democracy -- which she reconfigures in her speech as a kind of degraded populism -- thus unconsciously revealing how she views herself as a member of an elite, an elite that is going to bring order to the galaxy. Solidarity flagged her comment about "noble aspirations" but the entire speech is redolent with her elitist view of herself, the KMT, and its mission. 
• "But on the path of Taiwan’s democratization, our democratic values have gradually turned into a weapon to use against the 1.3 billion citizens of the mainland; no longer are they the basis for winning the hearts of those 1.3 billion." Another slam against democracy. She has to know how unpopular annexation to China is among the Taiwanese. Fundamentally, KMTers believe democracy should produce only the outcomes they want. Otherwise it is just a distortion. 
• "With the DPP constantly creating trouble and demolishing the foundation for peace, do we, fearing ridicule" DPP victory will lead to war! is KMT slander. Note also her positioning of the KMT as the reticent victim of the nefarious DPP. Poor put-upon KMT!

As Solidarity said, this is a completely reactionary speech completely out of touch with the public. Hung can't win unless she changes her vocabulary and tone completely -- older voters have lived with coded KMT in-speech their whole lives and know it just as well.

But let's not underestimate her. She is obviously a rousing speaker, tough, stubborn, and focused. If the KMT appoints a rational campaign manager who makes her listen to the public, she could do better than everyone thinks.

In the meantime I'll be visiting the earth god temple to pray for the active health of far right former premier and vice president Hau Pei-tsun, father of Hau Lung-bin, KMT heavyweight and former Taipei Mayor, so he'll come out and support her. Often.
__________________
Daily Links:

• Interviews from with student activist on the new pro-China curriculum.
• Has Taiwan outgrown the US Taiwan policy? asks Ben.
• Australia's answer to Lord Haw-Haw, Hugh White, defends PRC expansion in the South China Sea. Sick.
• Progress stalled on immigration law reform
• Yunlin bans coal, apparently to punish that horror of a plastics plant off its coast.
• Blumenthal and Mazza in WSJ.
• Massive corruption in military, 60 detained. If only I hadn't seen this periodically during my entire time in Taiwan.
• Martin Phipps corrects some erroneous claims about Philippines waters and Taiwan
• China operating in Phils, Taiwan waters.

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Inaugural CFP: The Rising Dragon, a journal of Pacific Rim culture and media studies

A hunting spider on my door screen.

UPDATE: I contacted them about the obvious pro-China name, but they wrote back and said it's a japanese dragon illustration, dragons are common in pacific rim cultures (so why not make it plural? Or use another word to describe the dragon?), and there's a strong personal reason for it. Since they already have a full blown apologetic for the extremely unfortunate name, don't bother contacting them, it will only annoy them.

From H-Asia... there is also a call for video stuff below the fold:
Inaugural CFP: The Rising Dragon, a journal of Pacific Rim culture and media studies [discussion]
by Aaron Mulvany
From H-Net Announcements:

The Rising Dragon

Call for Papers

We are pleased to announce the first CFP for a new publication, The Rising Dragon, a journal of Pacific Rim culture and media studies. We also accept video submissions. The theme for our first edition is “Pacific Rim as Frontier and Heartland.” During his presidential nomination acceptance speech in 1960, President John F. Kennedy first posited the idea of the Pacific Rim as a definite community that was both frontier and heartland, combining the two central ideas of the American mythos. For him, it was a contiguous, ever more integrated community of interest, experience, and humanness. It revolves as a single unit in that sense, transcending the merely Trans-Pacific by being Circum-Pacific, including all the cultures on the edges and within it. This is what informs our idea of the Pacific Rim and thus provides the impetus for our first theme, “Pacific Rim as Frontier and Heartland.”

Irritant Watch =UPDATED=

UPDATE: Read it: today's most important post on the business dealings of KMT Chairman Eric Chu's family. It's just business as usual....

I've often remarked on this blog that one of the Ma Administration's policies is to put forth issues that will keep relations with neighboring countries and the US irritated, in order to reduce their willingness to intervene on behalf of Taiwan against China and to make Taiwanese feel isolated and resigned to becoming annexed to China. Note the obsessive focus on China, Japan, and the US -- and the total neglect of Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Cambodia (a hearty dose of Han chauvinism is also a driver). The fishing disputes with Phils may cool, says an article in Forbes. Don't worry, they can always be revived... or something else stoked up.

For Japan, the usual irritant is the Senkakus, but another issue is the Comfort Women issue, which Ma has stoked several times. Ma announced last week that a new Comfort Women museum would open in Dec in Taipei:

Ma has shown strong interest in the comfort women issue, saying that the system of wartime prostitution was an abuse of human rights and a serious war crime.

Four Taiwanese victims of the Japanese system are alive, with their average age exceeding 90, according to a supporter group.

In July last year, Ma unveiled an idea of setting up museums on China’s war against Japan and the comfort women in 2015.

Fortunately, Taiwanese are completely indifferent to Ma's attempts to get them to hate on Japanese as stereotypical Chinese are supposed to.

Note that 200,000 Taiwanese served in the Japanese armed forces during the war, including thousands of aborigines. There is little official recognition of that in Taiwan. That generation is also nearly gone. It's high time they got a museum since they, like the Comfort Women, like everyone who fought and suffered in WII on both sides, were victims of imperial expansion and aggression.
________________________
Daily Links:

• Hegemonic Warfare Watch: Two views of the SCS: Sam Bateman in East Asian Forum, and Denny Roy in The Diplomat. Taiwan launched new Coast Guard ships this week. The Ma gov't commissioned a largely pro-China set of academics to develop its South China Sea history and policies. Meanwhile, Alex Calvo argues Japan should garrison the Senkakus.Winter is coming...
• Should Taiwan join the AIIB? Well, you could look at the World Bank's dismal record of failure, or you could look at China's track record in Sri Lanka.
• Wang Jin-pyng hints he would run, if asked. KMT news organ on same story. Remember, candidates can keep all their political donations. I think I might run one of these years...
• Taiwan Communique 151 is out
• The government is passing new rules to limit farmland construction. Yeah, like it hasn't done that 1000 times before. The article notes that in Yilan 1900 hectares of prime farmland has been lost. Well, the Taoyuan Aerotropolis is seizing 3200 hectares. A friend of mine who lives on the east coast told me he suspects that on the east coast in many areas the government is going slow on approving building on farmland, not because it has any great love of the environment, but because the new B&Bs compete with big resorts and hotels, and they asked local ag people to suppress it. Now there's a whole new bill that would stop little people developing their homes but of course big developers will be able to get all the land they want. 
• Young people leaving Taiwan for work elsewhere.
• Medical tourism from China to Taiwan is dropping off
• Another sign of slowly deepening US-Taiwan links: Taiwan to observe US armor training
• Amnesty accuses government of political motivations in sudden execution of six murders. Not only were the executions aimed at public anger over the senseless murder of a young girl, but they also diverted the discussion from Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US to the death penalty, which has strong public support in Taiwan. 
• ADDED: More Hung comedy -- WantWant on the KMT's decision on Hung Hsiu-chu: Hung jury

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Lynn Miles passes

Lynn Miles, the longtime activist and fighter for human rights, democracy, and peace, passed away in the early morning hours today. He was a very great human being who always spoke truth to power, and will be missed by all who knew him, and by Taiwan. Om shanti, om shanti, om shanti.

FocusTaiwan's report. Also WantWant's, which puts in the important detail: the gov'ts final act in his life was to indict him...
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

The Comic Genius of Hung Hsiu-chu

Wind machines near Taichung.

Comic relief for today: KMT Presidential hopeful Hung Hsiu-chu's Deputy Speaker Legislative Bio. O joy! From the title "brief profile" (2200 words!) to the phrase "fierce Little Chili Pepper", you will savor this bio. Don't be drinking anything as you read this because it is certain to wind up on your keyboard. For special bonus, see her current English Wiki profile which immortalizes her political career thusly:

After years of becoming teacher and director of student affairs, Hung was accidentally discovered and recommended to participate in women's affairs and social affairs at the Taipei County office of the Kuomintang and accidentally elected as legislator.

Surely they could find someone in the KMT to check the English of both of these for her. Netizens are going to have a field day. Hurry up and read it since it is certain to be altered....
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Tsai Ing-wen Rocks DC

Gravel operations on the Lili River.

DPP Presidential candidate and Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US went very well. Enjoy some video of her talking (from here) and check out Walter Lohman's comments in the post below this one. The Taipei Times enthused again...

Following a landmark visit to the White House on Wednesday, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) met US Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday, making her the first Taiwanese presidential candidate to have entered the US Department of State headquarters.

US Department of State officials said at a post-meeting press conference that they appreciated Tsai’s visit, during which she held “constructive” talks with US officials.

Based on the US’ “one China” policy — as stipulated in the Three Joint Communiques between Washington and Beijing and the US’ Taiwan Relations Act — the US has developed solid unofficial ties with Taiwan, the officials said.

For the State Department to welcome the DPP candidate is unprecedented -- remember just a few years ago, in 2007, when the State Department shamefully objected to pixels containing an image of Chen Shui-bian assembling themselves in the United States for a teleconference?

All the behind the scenes commentary I've heard about the visit is very positive. Tsai was very well received. An important driver of this sea change is China's belligerent behavior, which is making Washington reconsider its China policy. Evan Medeiros, the architect of Obama's ailing China policy, is stepping down this week. Perhaps this will put an end to the cloud-cuckooland idea that a "breakthrough" could be achieved with China. Senator McCain released a statement:

Washington, D.C. ­- U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ), Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, released the following statement today regarding his meeting with Dr. Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate, earlier this week:

"I was pleased to meet with Dr. Tsai Ing-wen, earlier this week. I was reassured of her support for a responsible foreign policy for Taiwan, her commitment to the status quo in cross-strait relations, and her desire to strengthen relations with the United States. I look forward to continuing to work with a democratic Taiwan that remains economically vibrant and an active contributor to regional peace and stability. I also look forward to another round of open, democratic elections in Taiwan this coming January, where the future of Taiwan is decided by Taiwanese and free from foreign intervention."

Hopefully McCain means not merely China, but also the US, when he refers to "foreign intervention."

Back here in Taiwan, the KMT was so disturbed by the idea of Tsai getting positive publicity, it decided to take advantage of the popularity of the death penalty and execute six people, thus shifting the local conversation back to the death penalty rather than Tsai's landmark visit.

Speaking of the KMT, don't miss Solidarity.tw's excellent piece on the declining KMT mainlander core with many good details. For reference, my old one in The Diplomat and Donovan's great one at China Policy Institute. The KMT gives every indication it isn't going to recover. In fact, suicidal pessimist that I am, I wonder what Beijing will do when it realizes the KMT isn't likely to recover.
_______________
Daily Links:

• Chinese coast guard vessel anchored off Borneo

  He explained that one of the areas within Gugusan Beting Patinggi Ali had become a small island, which resulted in many parties being interested in it, possibly with the intention of encroachment.

• Brookings piece on our excellent health care system
• Howard French with a strong piece in Foreign Policy about the US-China clash in the South China Sea. PLAN used social media this week to announce Bashi Channel and Miyakato Strait are its new operating theatres.
• CPI fell last month according to DGBAS. Sure.....
• Phils, Taipei clash over fishing boats in Philippines waters.
• The sole KMT presidential primary contender, raving Nationalist "I'm married to the KMT" Hung Hsiu-chu said that she would lead the fight to keep the KMT in the legislature. She has little support among the Party factions, who would prefer Wang Jin-pyng or Chairman Eric Chu. I can't wait to see how she will chill light Blue and independent support for the KMT. 
• There's nothing like a government that claims all of China, Mongolia, Xijiang, and Tibet from its tiny post in Taipei telling another government that it must face reality.
• Tsai's rally in NY, where over 1200 came out.
• Clothing maker Patogonia is shocked to find that foreign laborers are treated like slaves.

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Walter Lohman on the Tsai Visit: Excellent words (transcript linked)

US analyst and expert Walter Lohman speaks.

UPDATE: Transcript
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Assoc of Taiwan Journalists Sound Warning on New China Security Law

Alishan area.

The Association of Taiwan Journalists posted this on their Facebook page about the new security laws in China and how they will affect Taiwan journalists. Click Read more for Chinese followed by English text:

Tsai Ing-wen at CSIS, DPP transcript of speech and Q&A

A bright day...

This just came through the internets in English and Chinese, with Q and A at the bottom. Her comment on Thatcher is priceless... it's wonky, too tired to clean it up tonight.

DPP TRANSCRIPT OF DR. TSAI'S SPEECH AT CSIS ON 6/3/15, FOLLOWED BY THE Q&A LED BY KURT CAMPBELL...

Eric "Hamlet" Chu Suffers the Insolence of Office

Valley views.

Well, Eric Chu once again dazzled us with his ability to turn 180s on a dime. The vacation he took a couple of days ago suddenly got canceled as he decided he would be back for the crucial June 17th meeting. The KMT news organ enthuses:

KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) stated yesterday that the party's 2016 KMT Presidential candidate would be finalized during the Central Standing Committee (CSC) meeting scheduled for June 17. Yesterday, Chu also decided to cancel his leave of absence as KMT chairman, so he would preside over the June 17 CSC meeting. He reportedly does not have a pre-set stance on the matter.

...

Eric Chu stated that the KMT decided to conduct public opinion polls asking two sets of questions, i.e. whether the respondents support Hung and whether the respondents support Hung in a race against the DPP's Tsai. The support ratings from the two questions would be weighted at 15% and 85%, respectively. According to the current schedule, the KMT would hold the opinion polls on June 12 and 13, and release their results of on June 14. The KMT CSC would nominate a Presidential candidate on June 17, with the approval of the National Party Congress, held annually, now scheduled for July 19.

This means it ain't over til it's over. Because the only candidate is Hung, and if she isn't approved on the 17th, there's definitely no candidate. But if she is approved, the National Party Congress -- which Chu will preside over as Chairman -- will decide, and Hung is not exactly popular within the KMT. What if they reject her? (Imagine the lawsuits). Chu could well be drafted, or Ma could force an Wu Den-yi/Hung Hsiu-chu ticket, or anything could happen. But it looks like we have another month of gleefully abusing the KMT to look forward to.

The article gave some poll numbers from the China Times polling center. Tsai beats Hung only by 4.1%, Tsai beats Chu by 10%, Tsai beats Wang by 2.9%. Lots of undecideds in those polls, and it is way early. But Wang's continued success against Tsai has to be raising his stock inside the KMT. Couple that with the fact that a Hung or Wu candidacy will chill faction support for the KMT across Taiwan, whereas a Wang candidacy will stoke it -- and Wang is well liked even among pan-Green voters.

I mean, the move is obvious. If Chu doesn't want it, go with Wang. But then, this is the party that ran members of the Lien family three times for major public office...

Meanwhile, even as Eric Chu dithers, more good news out of the US from all sorts of channels. The media is reporting a very successful trip for Tsai to the US. All my private sources are saying that the US was much happier to see her and that things went very well. Hopefully there won't be a repeat of that ridiculous attack on Tsai in 2012 that did so much harm to Taiwan and the United States.
__________________
Daily Links:

• What's the difference between Taiwan winter and spring tea
• The bird and wildlife photos of Dave Irving on Flickr offer a great sanity break...
• WantWant overinterprets Obama remark
• TT editorializes on the KMT candidacy situation, it's a good summary of recent developments
• James Wang comments on the possibility of the KMT not surviving the changing times.
• Ma's rendering of China's role in WWII.
• Housing transactions reach lowest levels since 1999

_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Is the ship of State making a majestic turn?

Picking over a plowed field.

A friend of mine flagged this passage in the recent State Department briefing on the visit of Tsai Ing-wen to the US. It uses some interesting language...

QUESTION: Yes. A couple, Taiwan.

MS HARF: Uh-huh.

QUESTION: As you know, the opposition – the head of the opposition party in Taiwan, Ms. Tsai Ing-wen, visited here with United States.

MS HARF: Will be visiting, I think.

QUESTION: Here in this town, yeah.

MS HARF: In the – yes, correct.

QUESTION: Yes, yes. And does any U.S. official, including State Department and White House, plan to meet her?

MS HARF: Well, we certainly welcome her visit and look forward to a productive exchange. I don’t have a full outline of her meetings yet. I believe there are some that will be planned with U.S. officials, but I don’t have that in front of me. So I think the schedule’s still being worked.

QUESTION: Yeah. Are you concerned any Chinese reaction after the meeting, if somebody meet her?

MS HARF: Well, we – look, we have an interest in a comprehensive, durable, and mutually beneficial partnership with Taiwan. But that is fully consistent with our One China policy, and that’s something we’ve said consistently, that’s based on the three joint communiques, and the Taiwan Relations Act. So we believe you can support Taiwan’s security and freedom from coercion, you can promote Taiwan’s economic prosperity, and help people in Taiwan enjoy the respect they deserve in the international community while supporting at the same time our policy that hasn’t changed. We believe we can do both.

Well, he pointed out, this is the same language Tsai Ing-wen used in her WSJ piece the other day, the idea of partnership. Interestingly, the language Ms. Harf used today is almost verbatim from Deputy Asst Secretary in the East Asia/Pacific Affairs Bureau Susan Thornton's speech in mid-May:

"...comprehensive, durable, and mutually beneficial partnership with Taiwan.

Does new language signal new policy? Maybe. One effect, historically, of the US drawing closer to China is that Taiwan gets denigrated. Now the pendulum is swinging the other way: as the US increasingly confronts China, Taiwan's status is going to get an upgrade. This may also mean that anti-Taiwan individuals in the government and punditocracy aren't going to get as much of a hearing as they used to, a very good thing. Much depends on how Tsai handles things...

Meanwhile my friend Les alerts me to the fact that Ma is terrorized by the Tsai Ing-wen visit and the thought that she might change US policy, and so is rushing off to the US in July to see if he can spread the One True Gospel of Return to China in Washington. Alas, it isn't 2007 anymore, no one believes in Ma's competence and pragmatism except the toadies who surround him. Alas, China's belligerence and inability to compromise has betrayed Ma on every level, Mordor's betrayal of Saruman. Only this time he can't do his Saruman in Orthanc imitation...
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

KMTitanic 11: The Captain is no longer aboard =UPDATED=

Drying the pillows in a rare moment of sunshine...

Father Byles: And God will wipe away the tears from their eyes; and there will no longer be any death; there will be no more pain; the former world has passed away.

I tore my eyes away from Richard Saunder's excellent post on Taiwan's memorial arches to contemplate the colossal wreck of the KMTitanic, around whom a bare and level ocean stretches far away...

My day began at 7 am, before my first cup of coffee, when my man Kerslake alerted me to the Apple Daily's poll news. Because I could not stop to translate, Solidarity kindly stopped for me...

In an Apple Daily poll yesterday, 54.9% of voters said they support Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu 洪秀柱 representing the KMT in the coming presidential election. When asked for whom they would vote if the election were held tomorrow, 50.05% said they would vote for Hung, and 28.47% said they would vote for Tsai.

With the KMT launching its “anti-brick” measures for its presidential primary, Hung, the party’s sole candidate, needs to get more than 30% in polling to assure her nomination.

This poll is just a reference, Hung stated in response. A blue legislator said that Hung’s poll support and momentum have definitely grown, but this great disparity between her and Tsai is possibly attributable to the green camp “irrigating the vote” [dishonestly expressing support for Hung to force a weak candidate on the KMT] and called for the KMT’s central committee to respond carefully to this phenomenon.

The truth of the matter is that Hung won't get a vote south of Miaoli. Hung Hsiu-chu is an ideological purist of the old school, the more-KMT-than-the-KMT school. She's older than Ma Ying-jeou and of the generation that came of age under Chiang Kai-shek, and I suspect, like I believe of Ma, that her mental model of leadership is Chiang Sr., not his son Chiang Ching-kuo. A legislator since 1990, she's run only in safe districts and has been on the party list since 2008, so she doesn't have to run at all. She's never campaigned outside of Taipei... and hasn't campaigned in several years. She is tough, however, and has bucked the party's command before. In 1989 she won the primary nomination for legislator but the party central wouldn't accept it. Risking everything, she ran anyway and won. The tussle over her nomination must be a familiar experience for her...

But today? She's not out of touch -- she's so distant from everyday voters, she needs binoculars just to get a glimpse of out of touch.

You can imagine the glee with which pro-DPP poll respondents, entirely unorchestrated, said they'd prefer Hung to Tsai, obvious nonsense since polls earlier last month (hey, it's June already!) from different media organs all had Tsai crushing her by ungodly margins. The KMT has hoisted itself by its own rules petard -- as Solidarity pointed out on Twitter today, there is no way to filter the Greens out of a public poll, since they can always lie.

It's hard to know how to read all this, since many in the KMT are deeply and publicly opposed to her candidacy, but things clarified slightly when the news arrived this morning that KMT Chairman Eric Chu, once the savior, now mere mortal, announced he was taking a three week vacation. The KMT news organ has the call (Solidarity as well):

At the same time, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) announced that he would take three weeks off, absenting himself from three weekly sessions of the Central Standing Committee (CSC) starting from this Wednesday. KMT Vice Chairman Hao Long-bin (郝龍斌) will chair the meetings in Chu’s absence. A KMT insider said, “It’s really weird that the Chairman has decided to take three weeks off at such a crucial time,” leading many to suspect that Chu was taking time off so as not to be involved in presidential primary using a technicality. A KMT senior executive explained that Chu could not preside over the CSC for the next three weeks because Chu would be interpellated in the New Taipei City Council until June 17, adding that if the party needed to decide whether to nominate Hung or draft someone else on Wednesday, June 17, “the party central will negotiate with the New Taipei City Council to make Chu available to preside over the CSC.”

“the party central will negotiate with the New Taipei City Council to make Chu available to preside over the CSC.” Man, that's a classic of bureaucratic piety. Poor KMT executive was like a B-17 bracketed by searchlights over Berlin...

Yep. In the middle of the nomination process, with no candidate and the party in total disarray, Eric Chu is taking a three week break. It's almost like he doesn't want to be Chairman or something, as if he were begging someone in the KMT to stage a putsch in his absence. Maybe he just doesn't want to be associated with the Hung candidacy. Solidarity observed:

What’s more, if Chu hadn’t overturned Hau’s decision to have Hung hold policy briefings elsewhere and then run her poll at the end of the month, the meetings he’s skipping wouldn’t be so crucial. There is a bad-fanfiction-like lack of continuity from day to day right now.

As Chu lurches from unfathomable decision to unfathomable decision, the Hung mess is looking symptomatic of a deep split in the KMT. The way I am interpreting this at the moment, Chu is facing opposition from the Deep Deep Blues, the purist, ideological KMTers like Hau Pei-tsun, the former Premier, and Ma Ying-jeou. Ordinarily antagonistic (there's even a fringe of far right-wingers who claim Ma is a closeted independence supporter) they are united in one thing: Chu is not KMT enough for them. He's married to a Taiwanese, and even though his father-in-law is a big deal in Tainan politics and in the KMT, it's not enough. Hung is the only candidate who can pass their ideology and ethnicity tests. From what I can see, Chu can't get anything done because the direction of reform can only to be to make the party a Taiwanese party, and the mainlander clique at the top will never accept that. This three week vacation is Chu's way of throwing up his hands and saying "Alright, you do it your way."

Although KMT Sec-Gen Lee Si-chuan will be running the party, I am also beginning to wonder if Hau Lung-bin the son of Deep Blue stalwart Hau Pei-tsun is being pushed forward now as a de facto replacement for Chu by the mainlander core, to prevent the KMT from becoming Taiwanese and preserve the power of the Deep Blue core, or is perhaps seizing the moment because Hau knows they will support him, since he too has the right ethnicity, parents, and ideological commitments.

Anyway you slice it, the "Chu is waiting for 2020" interpretation of his actions has taken a beating in the last few weeks. There's no way anyone is going to forget this period of mismanagement. Perhaps it is as simple as my man FM has maintained for the last six months: Chu doesn't want to be president.

In fact, it's looking like he doesn't want to be Chairman either.

Anyone know where I can buy a commercial grade popcorn machine? Because that's what I am going to need if the KMT keeps giving me days like this.

UPDATE: Great comment below:

Anonymous an angry taiwanese said...
quote Frozen Garlic (post 2010/11/13) The first speaker I saw was legislator Hong Hsiu-chu 洪秀柱. She gave a stunningly radical speech. It went something like this:

In 2000, we lost governing power, and it was painful. We had eight years of hate. Hate.

The moment when KMT ring Hong Hsiu-chu's nomination bell is the moment this Garlic post become immortal. (https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2010/11/13/campaign-trail-hau-rally/)

Read the whole post to get the flavor of who she is. All this will come out if she actually runs.

UPDATE 2: Maddog directed me to a video of her claim that violence is in the DPP's DNA, juxtaposed with her own acts of violence.

Recent sightings of the good ship KMTitanic: 
Hung? Really? -- Comedy and ethnicity in The Rational Party -- KMTitanic 10: the ship is foundering -- Wang out -- Chu goes there? -- Rounding up the KMT again -- KMTitanic 8: Chu = monkey wrench -- KMTitanic 7: Existential Crisis --  KMT Shorts -- Chu Notes -- KMTitanic 5: Struggling for the Northern Lifeboats -- Chu Political Theatre -- KMTitanic 4 -- KMTitanic 3 -- KMTitanic 2 -- KMTitanic 1 -- Chu's Revolutionary Reforms?
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!