Thursday, March 14, 2013

Taiwan's Income Inequality Disappearing in the Media

random_10
Gravel trucks ceaselessly feeding the maw of the construction-industrial state.

A couple of related pieces out tonight. First Jennifer Chen in WSJ offers a paean to the greatness of Taipei, which actually has a connection to a truly silly article from Bloomberg that sent waves of amused contempt rolling through the intertubes. The WSJ piece on Taipei says:
Since the late 1990s, the municipal government has focused on improving the quality of life in this city of 2.6 million. “Taipei is a city known for its friendliness and rapid development of technology,” Mayor Hau Lung-pin said in 2010 during the launch of a beautification campaign. “We want to turn it into a beautiful city.”

“Everyone knows that Taipei is a city with a good lifestyle, but that’s not enough,” Lin Chong-jie, the director of Taipei’s Urban Redevelopment Office, said. “We want to make Taipei’s place in Asia clearer, and one of the ways of doing so is becoming a creative city.”
What a coincidence! The article conveniently begins with the KMT administration of the city, which resumed in the late 1990s after Chen Shui-bian's single term as mayor. I'm sure there is no politics there.

And another, deeper coincidence. In the piece are featured a couple of cafes and design locations, and note how the piece has a focus on creativity and design. Can you guess? The city of Taipei is currently submitting a bid to the World Design Capital competition for 2016 (here). The bid application of course emphasizes the design and creativity infrastructure and organizations of the city. I'd bet money that the cafes and other places mentioned by name in the article will be in the city's bid. Nice to get a little free advertising in a global news organ about your city's awesome design and creativity facilities and atmosphere.

One comment in the piece really struck me:
Welcome to the new Taipei. Other Asian cities might compete on building the flashiest skyscrapers or glitziest shopping center. But the Taiwanese capital, once a typical ’80s Asian Tiger boomtown, is forging a different path.
Most of the piece is excellent and on point (and a pleasure to read, obviously well-written and edited), but this remark shows a lack of understanding. Taipei in the go-go days was a boomtown, but it was never a typical Asian boomtown. The high rises and slums of other Asian boomtowns passed Taipei by, because in the 1970s and 1980s income inequality in Taiwan was shockingly low. In Governing the Market at the end of the 1980s Robert Wade observed that Taipei was crowded with low buildings and mostly free of skyscrapers, so that anyone looking at Seoul with its steel-and-glass symphonies might suppose that South Koreans were rich and Taipei'ns poor. But the opposite was true at that time: Taiwanese had a lot more money. In reality, skyscrapers are not a symbol of wealth, but of rampant wealth inequality. Just look at how much more unequal income is in Hong Kong, and how much taller its buildings are....

Now in fact Taipei is becoming a boomtown, with new apartment buildings going up and older, historic, and traditional structures being eradicated. Taipei's high-rise boom is a symptom of growing wealth inequality. This boom is driven by the ongoing property bubble which in turn is fueled by Taiwan's growing wealth inequality. Always unmentioned in pieces like this is another aspect of income inequality: regional inequalities. Taipei lives well because the rest of Taiwan has been starved for development funding to feed Taipei.

Taipei's reflection of the growing wealth divide in Taiwan linked the WSJ piece in my mind to the Bloomberg piece, which is titled: Taiwan Shrinks Wealth Gap as Xi’s China Communists Struggle. Bloomberg usually turns out center-right Establishment political analysis which is fairly reliable within its agenda, and occasionally a really good piece, but seldom do they publish outright comedy gold like this comparison of Taiwan and China. It's like a primer in how to craft an obvious political attack that looks like a news report, while failing to meaningfully comment on the host of problems stemming from Taiwan's failure to tax its wealth properly, as well as totally misunderstanding Taiwan. It's not often the media serves up its propaganda so artlessly. Why O why can't we have a better press corps?

The title is absurd on its face; income inequality in Taiwan has been on the increase for three decades. But Bloomberg says:
As Chinese President Xi Jinping completes his nation’s leadership succession this week, Taiwan may offer a model for his campaign to bridge a wealth gap that threatens to undermine Communist Party legitimacy. Taiwan’s Gini coefficient, a measure of inequality, was 0.342 in 2011 compared with China’s 0.477 and the 0.4 level used as a predictor for social unrest.
...and further down....
In Taiwan, the Gini coefficient hit 0.350 in 2001 and has since hovered around its current level of 0.342. Its income gap is now lower than Hong Kong’s, which reached 0.537 in 2011, and Singapore’s figure of 0.482 that same year. In January, the head of China’s statistics bureau said the Chinese income gap narrowed for the fourth straight year in 2012, to 0.474 from 0.491 in 2008.
Anyone can download the Excel file from Taiwan's stats agency and look. The gini has risen steadily since the early 1980s after falling steadily during the 60s and 70s, reaching its lowest point in 1980. The .350 in 2001 was an outlier, probably due to the recession at the time. I discussed this before here. Here is the data....

1981 0.281
1982 0.283
1983 0.287
1984 0.287
1985 0.291
1986 0.296
1987 0.299
1988 0.303
1989 0.303
1990 0.312
1991 0.308
1992 0.312
1993 0.315
1994 0.318
1995 0.317
1996 0.317
1997 0.320
1998 0.324
1999 0.325
2000 0.326
2001 0.350
2002 0.345
2003 0.343
2004 0.338
2005 0.340
2006 0.339
2007 0.340
2008 0.341
2009 0.345
2010 0.342
2011 0.342

If you mentally remove the .350, you can see how the gini climbs from around .32 in the 1990s to around 3.4 a decade later, .02 a decade -- just as it did from the 1980s to the 1990s. Bloomberg has selected the most useful year for its discussion of Taiwan's income inequality. 2001 is the only year it could have selected that would show income inequality to be meaningfully lower now than a decade ago. It's all coincidence, I'm sure.

Never mind that the numbers for China are even more contestable; several knowledgeable friends pointed out that recent work shows the gini in China to be above .60, though I do not know what studies they refer to. Or that China's gini was probably excellent, since everyone was poor, until the boom days began in the 1990s.

Bloomberg then goes on to praise Taiwan's health insurance system, which truly is one of the world's best and deserving of praise. It then contrasts that with China's, to make its crude political point. At which point everyone started laughing at the irony, because we all know what the business interests in the US that Bloomberg writes for think of national health insurance. Ditto for the commentary on the social safety net, which elites in the US are busily attempting to gut. And ditto for the massive US income inequality (Bloomberg's editors on that).

The article does mention Taiwan's income tax situation, but without any reference to the problem of the rich being woefully undertaxed, something which drives other things they mention, underfunded pensions, the underfunded health insurance system, and housing prices. *Sigh*

Finally I had to love the way that the article mentioned that two pro-independence leaders were prosecuted for corruption....
In Taiwan, former President Chen Shui-bian is serving a 20- year jail term for bribery. Another former leader, Lee Teng-hui, faced embezzlement charges in 2011. Taiwan also introduced a luxury tax in 2011 that imposed a 10 percent sales levy on goods such as yachts and furs.
....no mention that the current KMT President was also prosecuted for corruption and that no one disputed government funds from public accounts found their way into his private accounts. But can't have everything, I suppose.

One outstanding kudo to them -- Bloomberg mentions the political affiliation of one of the groups they cite. Great work; not every news agency bothers to do that. But on the whole, I hope we don't see any more transparently political editorializing like this.

ADDED: An anonymous commenter further noted on the WSJ piece:
In the WSJ piece, note that Monocle magazine gets a mention.

Monocle's editor in chief is Tyler Brûlé, who also runs Winkreative, the PR agency that runs the American and European campaigns of Taiwan's tourism bureau. (Quite pleasant to see on the side of a London double-decker, I must admit.) The article looks like a real win for both of Brûlé's businesses.
________________________
Daily Links:
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Things found surfing....

Stumbled across this. Jet Magazine, June, 1961.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Links -n- stuff

In a pond near my house.

Taiwan Thinktank, a pan-Green operation, came out with a poll on the referendum on the fourth nuclear plant.
More than 60 percent of respondents said they would vote in a proposed national referendum on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in New Taipei City’s (新北市) Gongliao District (貢寮) and almost 70 percent of those polled supported the suspension of construction and operations at the controversial power plant, a survey released yesterday showed.
8-10% higher than the other polls. Reading this.....
People’s concerns about nuclear safety were so strong that 71.6 percent said they would still oppose completing the construction of the plant even if electricity prices would have to increase by 10 percent as the government has claimed.
...I got to wondering how the referendum relates to the Ma government's electricity price increase fiasco of last year. If the public scotches the nuclear plant, it follows that the government will attempt to increase prices and blame the referendum. Meanwhile the Premier, with a straight face, called for nuclear phase out by 2055. LOL.

The China Post rapped the government on the knuckles for its nuclear waste policy, as big a public concern as the fourth nuclear plant:
North Korea's reported impending lawsuit against Taiwan over an allegedly unfulfilled nuclear waste disposal contract is a blindside amid the feverishly boiling public debate over the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant referendum. All of a sudden, one of the world's most infamous and secluded states has thrown itself into the debate, and this raises a tangle of painful questions about Taiwan's nuclear policy.

.....

No matter to which side the legal advantage eventually goes, Taiwan must review why and how it has found itself mired in these nuclear power controversies. In addition to Nuke 4, there is the problem of poor domestic storage as exemplified by complaints about decaying storage containers at Orchid Island (Lanyu), off the coast of Southern Taiwan. The poor state of management and lack of preplanning seems to haunt the country's tussle with nuclear power.
Well put.....

Here's the formal scholarly piece for that PPT I linked to the other day showing that the east coast has probably been hit by tsunamis in the past, with the finding of probable tsunami-deposited boulders. This group also took soil samples that appeared to show tsunami deposits, but they could well be typhoons.
________________
Daily Links:
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

More referendum observations

A longtime observer of local politics pointed out to me another bit of anti-democratic fallout from the Double 50 threshold: ballot secrecy. There won't be any. Consider...

1. It is likely that the KMT will instruct its people to stay home.

2. It is also likely that the referendum will not combined with next year's elections.

3. Thus, the only thing voted on will be the Fourth Nuke Plant referendum.

If KMT types are ordered to stay home, this means that the only people going will be, in the very least, people who are voting to stop construction and operation of the plant, and who are more than likely pan-Green voters. In other words, anyone who goes to the polls that day outs themselves as a probable DPP supporter. That will be a consideration in people's minds, and it will inhibit participation in some cases.

Latest TISR poll: 58% want Fourth Nuclear Plant suspended, 52% support keeping the other three plants in operation. The public is wary of Nuke 4 but separates that issue from the issue of nuclear power as a whole, says TISR.

The Atomic Energy agency and the KMT rejected a DPP proposal to amend the law to provide for a local referendum when a nuclear power plant has its fuel rods loaded, TT said. Although it is local lives and health affected by the plant, the government refuses to give them any say in whether they want such a plant in their neighborhood. The article also observed that the plan to remove the nuke waste from Orchid Island by 2016 is "hardly possible" and thus the project has been pushed back to 2021 at the moment. Argh.
________________
Daily Links:
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Irritant watch: Pork strikes the US-Taiwan relationship

Lunch yesterday.

Well, as predicted by many, including this blog, US ractopork is now becoming an issue in US-Taiwan relations. Another useful irritant. The China Post reports:
The Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) denied a request to approve ractopamine-containing pork imports during yesterday's bilateral trade talks with the United States, which said it will broach the topic again.

The seventh round of Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) talks opened yesterday in Taipei after a six-year hiatus.

During the talks, U.S. negotiators pressured Taiwan to rethink its ban on pork imports containing ractopamine, a leanness-enhancing feed additive.

Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Demetrios Marantis, who headed an interagency U.S. delegation, “underscored his request that Taiwan's food safety measures — including those relating to meat exports — are based on science and consistent with international standards,” according to a statement released by the Office of the United States Trade Representative after the talks.

The MOEA turned down the request, saying that Taiwan will continue to “separate permits for importing beef and pork.”

Last year, the Cabinet removed a ban on U.S. beef containing ractopamine, after assuring the public that Taiwan's pork ban won't also be removed by default.
Lessee.... Taiwan wants US troops to die for Taiwanese if China invades Taiwan... but won't buy US pork.

US pork shipments to Taiwan were heavily impacted by the US use of ractopamine. The US wants to ship pork to Taiwan but wants to include toxic substances banned in over 100 countries. I've got a great idea -- stop producing pork with toxins in it and trying to ship it to Taiwan! Regain your markets, improve health. Win-win! Naw, that's too intelligent.

The hypocrisy never stops, because anyone who has ever studied the production of pork in Taiwan can only laugh at the idea that Taiwan is defending its food safety. The real problem is that production of pork in Taiwan is big business. This Canadian government report lays out some of the issues:
  • In 2009, Canada overtook the United States as the largest source of Taiwanese pork imports by weight, with 38.6 thousand tons worth of pork imported from Canada that year.
  • "Canadian packers provide better pork specifications and Canadian trimmings seem to be more competitive in quality than U.S. products. Canadian pork producers are benefiting in the wake of the U.S. pork ractopamine issue as they move to satisfy demand for pork in Taiwan" (U.S. Meat Export Federation, 2008).
  • Rising grain prices have negatively affected Taiwan's pork production and resulted in increased reliance on imports. This reliance on imports is expected to compound overtime (USDA, Exporter Guide, 2008; ,USDA Taiwan Livestock and Products, 2006).
  • ....recent troubles faced by domestic producers create opportunities for increased foreign imports. A number of Taiwanese hog operations have closed, following a surge in grain prices that began in 2007. A reported 756 farmers exited the industry and the number of pigs was reduced by 440,000 (U.S. Meat Export Federation, 2008).
  • Pork is a very important commodity in Taiwan's food supply and constitutes the largest portion of domestically produced meat, at 59% of the total.
  • Taiwan has a larger import market for poultry and beef than it does for pork, but not for lack of domestic demand. Rather, it is the larger capacity of domestic pork production that makes it less important as an import relative to poultry or beef.
  • Taiwan imports pork largely to offset shortfalls in its own domestic production. 
  • Pork is the largest single source of protein in the Taiwanese diet. It is also an important source of Vitamin A and Iron
It should be added that pork has important religious and cultural significance in Taiwan. Everyone has seen the offerings of pigs at temples or the God Pig competition. Pigs are also key symbols in local culture, and were used to represent the KMT in protests during the Martial Law era. When you mess with pork, you mess with the Taiwan identity.

Taiwan used to export pork, but the hoof and mouth disease outbreak here in the 1990s killed the export industry. Rising grain prices will probably continue to reduce output here in Taiwan. Rising grain prices... shudder... here's the outlook for 2013.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Anti-Nuke Demonstration Rocks Taiwan

macro_10
Locked forever.

What a success! 200,000 show up for the anti-nuclear demonstration across the island yesterday, rocking the Powers That Be. From FocusTaiwan, one of the government news sites, from the government's Central News Agency (CNA):
In what organizers called the largest anti-nuclear protest in Taiwan, an estimated 200,000 people took to the streets in several parts of the island on Saturday to call for the scrapping of nuclear power plants.

The protest was held simultaneously in northern, central, southern and eastern Taiwan just two days before the second anniversary of the meltdown of Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant in the wake of the big earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011.

....

As of 5 p.m., the estimated number of participants in the march were more than 100,000 in northern Taiwan, more than 70,000 in southern Taiwan, more than 30,000 in central Taiwan and around 2,000 in eastern Taiwan, according to organizers.
The government pledged to stress safety and then reeled out the propaganda:
"The government will do its best to avoid electricity shortage and restrictions, cut the impact of high electricity rates on industry and public lives, and avoid industry exodus and unemployment," he said.
LOL. AFP has a nice quote from an activist who points out that polls show the public wants the plant closed. No need for a referendum, the public has spoken. Not that the government will listen....

The internet was flooded with pictures, great to see all the people come out. Nation Takes to the Streets said the Taipei Times. Well put.

A negative note: the government blocked the entry of a German environmental activist for "participating in an illegal demonstration" in 2011. They mean, for opposing nuclear power. Global Voices has a thorough review, including:
This is not the first time that Taiwan has zeroed in on the participation of foreigners in anti-nuclear activities in Taiwan, where the recent construction of the fourth nuclear power plant in Taiwan has been met with strong criticism because of security concerns. Two Japanese people from Fukushima were warned by the country's immigration office [zh] immediately after they gave a speech at an anti-nuclear demonstration on April 30, 2011.
Hmmm... remember the illegal anti-Chen demonstrations. Lots of foreigners participating. I wonder how many of them were blocked from re-entering Taiwan.... I would bet money the answer is... zero.
_______________________
Daily Links
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Blast from the Past: Conversation of Nixon +US Amb to ROC

A hornet grabs a drink.

FOREIGN RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES, 1969–1976
VOLUME XVII, CHINA, 1969–1972, DOCUMENT 136

136. Conversation Between President Nixon and the Ambassador to the Republic of China (McConaughy)1

Washington, June 30, 1971, 12:18–12:35 p.m.

[Omitted here is an exchange of pleasantries and a brief discussion of American relations with Africa, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.]

Saturday, March 09, 2013

Nuke Referendum Round Up =UPDATE=

The kids playing air hockey in Keelung.

UPDATE: Anti-nuke March today got tens of thousands. Enormous turnout. Very happy.

Tsunamis and the Fourth Nuke Plant
Adam Chimienti had a great piece in the Taipei Times today, pointing out that the defeat of the Shoreham Nuclear Reactor complex on Long Island back in the 1980s meant that the disaster of Hurricane Sandy did not result in flooding in reactors right off the nation's most important financial center. One of the points he made in the piece was that the Manila Trench, just off southern Taiwan, is a likely source of a massive quake in the near future. I picked up a journal paper that made the same argument, since there have been no recorded big quakes in over four centuries from that trench, meaning that a really massive one is probably building. It explores what would happen in the case of a massive quake in that Trench.


The paper observes:
It is significant that since the Spanish colonization of Luzon in the 1560s, no earthquake exceeding magnitude 7.8 has been observed (Repetti, 1946). Conservatively, it can be postulated that very large events on this megathrust have a recurrence interval exceeding 440 years. Taking a trench-normal convergence velocity of 87 mm/yr, strain of 38 m would have accumulated over this period. Though large, this slip magnitude remains within the range of plausible scenarios. It is comparable to the 1960 Mw 9.5 Chilean earthquake, in which coseismic slip reached 40 m (Barrientos and Ward, 1990), and larger than the 2004 Aceh-Andaman event, which produced 20 m of coseismic slip (Chlieh et al., 2007).
One of the propaganda claims you'll soon be hearing is that Taiwan can't produce a quake big enough to severely damage our reactors. This is nonsense (Wikipedia has a list of historical quakes in Taiwan) but we also face the problem of tsunamis. Their simulation of a massive quake/tsunami results in waves 8 meters high rolling over Luzon, with southern Taiwan getting smashed as well (extra points for identifying the location of the nuke plant there). But they also note that southern China's topographical orientation is such that 8 meter waves also smack it, despite the greater distance, meaning that....
Farther in the north, Taiwan receives the impact of reflections from mainland China, and the central western coast appears to suffer waves of up to 3 m in height. The southern Japanese islands of Ishigaki, Miyako and Okinawa ( 25 N, 125 E) also suffer from reflective waves and may experience waves of about 2 m. It appears that the reflective waves travel to, as far as, northern Papua ( 2 S, 137 E), which may be hit by waves of up to 2 m.
That's right. A quake on the southwest corner of the island, also results in waves 3 meters high striking northern and central Taiwan. That's separate from the quake-induced shaking. The paper does not simulate the onshore effects, but they can be imagined...
The second suspected tsunami inundated Kaohsiung, southwestern Taiwan, in 1781 (Wang et al., 2006). Besides appearing in a contemporary Chinese travelogue and a Japanese historiography, it was also recorded by Dutch colonists in the 18th-century Taiwan. Flooding lasted upwards of 8 h and many villages were swept away, resulting in more than 40,000 casualties (Wang et al., 2006). Despite the severity of this event, no inland or nearshore earthquake was identified as the cause. This would be consistent with the theory that the tsunami was generated by a far-field earthquake from off the Philippines.
Historical sources say the height of the 1781 wave exceeded 20 meters. This paper offers a comprehensive list of tsunami events and wave heights in the South China Sea region.

The belief that a large tsunami has never struck Taiwan's east coast is challenged by this presentation, which draws on aboriginal folklore and field studies to show that this belief is false. This Taipei Times piece from the other day observes that Taipower is supposed to study the tsunami and earthquake record in the area, but to date no one has been appointed to carry out the study.


Referendum
The wording of the referendum has been released....
If the KMT proposal is approved by the legislature, the public will be asked in a referendum: “Do you agree that the construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant should be halted and that it not become operational?” (你是否同意核四廠停止興建不得運轉) 
Despite the fact that the proposal originates from KMT legislators, the KMT government obviously wants to continue construction and thus can block the referendum merely by asking its supporters to stay home. That is why the referendum is worded negatively. Yes, that's right. They will put the issue on the ballot, and then ask their people to stay home. The cynicism of this would be breathtaking, if it were not the norm in politics here and abroad.

A longtime observer also pointed out that the phrase "not become operational" is deliberate. Recall that referendums can only be held on the topic at eight year intervals. By inserting that phrase at the end, the KMT then prevents a referendum on operating the plant when it becomes operational a few years from now. Indeed, the KMT whip said as much:
KMT caucus whip Lai said that the reason the KMT included “not become operational (不得運轉)” in the plebiscite question was that “otherwise, if the plebiscite failed to pass and the construction of Nuclear Power Plant No. 4 continued, then someone might propose another plebiscite on whether or not Nuclear Power Plant No. 4 should become operational. Therefore, why don’t we just solve the problem once for all in order to save the trouble.”
One of the things that scares so many of us viewing this debacle is that construction in Taiwan is so often sub-par, yet this is regarded as normal and the same practices of corner-cutting and fly-by-night firms are taking place at the Fourth Nuclear Plant. This article describes:
At a separate press conference, DPP lawmakers Yeh Yi-jin (葉宜津) and Ho Hsin-chun (何欣純) said a construction company with a questionable record was among the subcontractors at the plant in Gongliao (貢寮), New Taipei City (新北市).

Kuo Teng Construction Co (國登營造), which was found to be responsible for construction flaws at the Wugu-Yangmei Overpass, secured a construction bid worth more than NT$300 million (US$1 billion) for the plant.

While the winning bidder for the project listed on the Public Construction Commission’s (PCC) Web site was Cheng An Technology Co (城安新科技公司), Yeh said, its company address was the same as Kuo Teng’s, according to data provided by the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
There was also a piece about plastic bottles being used as filler in the plants concrete walls, another common practice in Taiwan. Jenny Hsu in WSJ added:
Situated in the coastal Gongliao district, the plant, which is missing only fuel rods and is scheduled to begin commercial operations by 2015, has been blasted by critics as a “ticking time bomb.” Since 2008, the project has suffered a string of mishaps, including floods and small fires (in Chinese). Concerns over safety at the plant skyrocketed after Fukushima.
The first three nuke plants are all scheduled to be decommissioned by 2025 according to current plans. The fourth is due to come online in 2015 or 2016 but I suspect that the KMT will push it back a couple of years, since it might not be a good idea to remind the public of KMT duplicity during a major election year (2016).

Polls
Bunch of polls on the issue out recently (here and here).
  • TISR: 59.6% opposed to finishing the plant; 67% in New Taipei City where it is located.
  • Business Today: 54% want it scrapped, another 23% oppose it. Just 11% trust the government to operate it properly.
  • Pro-KMT China Times: 62.4% want it stopped, only 21.2% want it to continue.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Links for Wed

FTVDay2_88
A few links.....
Bonus links... I found that I forgot to post these links from Monday, Feb 25, 10 days ago. Sorry! So enjoy.


BLOG:
MEDIA:

_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

The Taiwan Badlands

This weekend I had the opportunity to spend some time in the Taiwan Moonscape, the area of badlands in southern Taiwan. I had never seen the area up close and personal, merely ridden through it on a bike. One thing I hadn't understood was how big they were. The map below should give some idea of the extent of this 100,000 hectare formation which crops out as badlands in the area around Tianliao, with a thickness variously given as 3-4 kms (source), spreading across southern Taiwan from Chiayi to Kaohsiung. Mudstone formations are also found in Kenting near Hengchun and in Taitung. Walking around in the area naturally caused me to wonder: what was its origin?

Extent of the badlands in southern Taiwan, the Gutingkeng Formation (source).

Taiwan's badlands are unique, being the only badland formation on earth in a tropical area with good rainfall. The others in Italy, the US, and elsewhere, are all in arid or semi-arid regions. Badlands typically consist of weak sedimentary rock and fall into two basic types: calanchi, with pinnacles or sharp peaked ridges, as in Taiwan, and biancane, which are more rounded.

This paper on the history of the rivers in the area observes that the badlands are undergoing uplift. As the Philippine Plate shoves its way northwest toward China, it pushes the crust up, causing the area to tilt toward the ocean and lifting it up. The effect of this uplift can be seen in this picture below, which shows how the rock layers lie on their sides perpendicular to the ground, instead of parallel to it:


The mudstone exposed in the foothills area of southwestern Taiwan is a sedimentary rock formed several million years ago (source). It is usually referred to as Pleistocene in origin. It is cut through with layers of limestone in places, which are quarried by Taiwan's ubiquitous gravel industry. The mudstone area is also the location of mud volcanoes, which track one of the region's major NE to SW running faults. At the famous hot springs site of Guanziling the hot springs crop out through this deposit of mudstone.

The mudstone layer itself, as far as I was able to ascertain, is a deposit of marine sediments that formed during the late Cenozoic period (Pliocene/Pleistocene) as a giant sedimentary basin was gradually filled in with silt and clay and then uplifted to its current position by the action of the Philippine Plate.

One interesting idiosyncrasy of these badlands is that the bare slopes are mostly south facing. The reason for this is solar radiation (source), not monsoon rains or typhoons as one might think. During the long dry season, the sun heats the slopes, making them inhospitable to vegetation, and causing them to crack, speeding weathering. The result is the south-facing bare slopes so typical of the badlands area. According to this article, because of the massive precipitation and sedimentation, the Erhjeng River, which drains the area of mudstone, yields 1.3 x 107 tons of sediment annually, the highest rate of sediment discharge in Taiwan.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Tuesday, March 05, 2013

Global Warming Burns up Taichung

Taken at the New Wu Er Train Station at the HSR.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

Fourth Nuke Referendum Round Up

In Taiwan even the dogs dress like betel nut girls.

The DPP says it will work to get the referendum law changed for the upcoming referendum on the Fourth Nuclear Plant (also here). The DPP's strategy:
DPP Legislator Pan Men-an (潘孟安) said the DPP caucus would likely adopt a strategy that urges voters to treat the referendum as a vote of no confidence in President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to mobilize local communities.
We had a referendum on Ma; it was call the 2012 Presidential election. Let's do something revolutionary and treat this as a referendum on the nuclear power plant.

Speaking of referendums, the local authorities organized a referendum in 1994 on the plant, even before it was approved. 96% voted against. Naturally this was ignored.

Eric Chu, now the chief of Taipei city, advocated absentee voting, which would increase the turnout. Remember that half the population has to turn out for the vote to be binding. Absentee voting has major political implications for local elections, especially with so many individuals outside Taiwan living in China. That's why the premier immediately supported it. Interestingly, the lead in this particular little play was assigned to Chu, who needs to raise his profile if he wants to be the Presidential candidate in 2016.

Lin Yi-hsiung, along with many others, points out that the referendum is a joke, just a political game. It means that the KMT government will be opposing a referendum put forward by KMT legislators. LOL. President Ma is supporting construction of the plant. The KMT plans to submit the referendum proposal to the legislature this week. The propaganda blizzard is already starting:
Premier Jiang Yi-huah (江宜樺) said on Friday that he would resign if the government loses the vote and construction of the plant is halted, adding that if construction is halted it could lead to bankruptcy for state-owned Taiwan Power Co (Taipower, 台電) as well as cause other problems such as power shortages.
It might lead to power shortages, if the government decides never to build another power plant of any kind. Like that is really going to happen. Once again, let me remind the reader that twenty years ago we heard this crap about economic collapse, power shortages, Mad Max on the streets, etc. Still the same garbage two decades later. Remember this from 2000?
Proponents of the plant, the plans for which date back 20 years, have argued that the facility in northern Taiwan is urgently needed for national security and to help sustain continued economic growth. Taiwan imports 97 percent of its energy needs. They also argue that ditching the project would be a tremendous waste of taxpayers' money. State-owned Taiwan Power Co (Taipower) has already spent $1.6 billion on the project. The implications for Taipower are severe: If it is substantially financially weakened, it will be much more difficult to privatize it, as the government plans.
Same themes: economic growth, financial damage to Taipower. The "credibility" issue was also a factor back then -- Taiwan must buy big power systems from abroad to maintain its credibility with other nations -- so expect that one to be revived for the current debate too.

Note that the article above says Taiwan has no long-term plan to deal with nuclear waste -- it still doesn't. Does that lack suggest that the government expects the plant will never be built?

Commercial Times called for everyone to be rational about it. Good luck with that.

A key source of mobilizing the public should be celebrities. I hope we see a steady flow of them in the months to come. TT has a report on celebrities coming out against the nuke plant.

Wording of the referendum is going to be crucial. Can't wait to see it....

The referendum has a number of useful political functions -- still waiting on your analysis, M!. One among them is making other urgent issues disappear. For example, the government is also working on pension reform, of interest to the bureaucracy and government employees, one of the KMT's most important constituencies. Remember, the government has done very little on the stock transaction tax and nothing at all on the land tax, as well as income tax on the wealthy. Down the memory hole as each new "crisis" wipes long-term issues out of the headlines.

Some comments on safety and construction...

A group opposed to the plant points out that it is vulnerable to historical-sized tsunamis and that the wall to protect it is too low. Moreover, the government has conducted no surveys of historical tsunamis in the area. The TT reports:
In response to the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) contention that Tsai supported the plant’s construction when she served as vice premier, the former DPP chairperson said the KMT was manipulating past events to fit its own purposes.

Tsai, who served as vice premier between 2006 and 2007, said the then-DPP Cabinet’s approval of the nuclear energy plant’s construction was based on Taiwan Power Co’s (Taipower) pledge to finish construction within the year.

After the approval was given, there were repeated accidents, construction delays, requests for additional budget allocations and the construction was never completed, she said (source).
Accidents, delays... quakes and tsunamis. Chernobyl was actually cited in the original funding for the plant, according to this article. From Wild At Heart's Shadow Report:
...Like Fukushima Island, the location of the 2011 Japanese nuclear disaster, Taiwan is situated at the juncture of the Phillippine and Eurasian Tectonic Plates. Islands along this geologically active seabed bulge frequently experience high-magnitude earthquakes -- from 1991 to 2006, there were an average of 18,500 earthquakes per year, with 49,919 in 1999 alone. There are faultlines near all four of Taiwan's nuclear plants. Chinshan and Kuosheng plants are located near Mt. Datun, a dormant volcano, and the Lungmen plant is exposed to the activity of 70 underwater volcanoes, with geologists warning that volcanic eruptions are a potential threat to nuclear safety. In 1867, the Keelung-Chinshan Tsunami -- the most deadly in Taiwan's recorded history -- affected areas dangerously close to the present-day locations of the Chinshan and Kuosheng plants. In 1771, 85-meter-tall waves inundated Japan's Ishigaki Island, 200 kilometers off Taiwan's northeastern coast. Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs notes in its Central Geological Survey that faultline and underwater volcano activity is expected to accompany the observed expansion of the oceanic trough northeast of Taiwan, making tsunamis a likely occurrence in the area. This is of great concern because geologists believe that tsunamis pose a serious threat to nuclear plant safety. The Chinshan and Kuosheng plants are also located along the potential path of rock- and land-slides....
From one of Dennis Engbarth's old pieces:
According to DPP Legislator Tien Chiu-chin, the ‘Nuclear Four’ project suffers from a long list of concerns, including over 700 arbitrary design changes without GE’s permission, insufficient earthquake protection to withstand a seven magnitude earthquake, proximity to recently discovered active undersea volcanoes and faults. She also said the plant is suffering from poor management by Taipower, which is directly managing construction, unlike the previous plants which were supervised by GE and Westinghouse.
To get some idea of the natural threats, see this old post. See too this report which said that the key safety systems were being treated like waste dumps. This plant is a disaster waiting to happen. Of course, if anything happens, the government's evac plan for Taipei is YOYO: you're on your own. There is no plan. OECD experts in Taiwan for safety review of plants.
______________

Daily Links:
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.

FTV in K-town Again

This weekend I had an extraordinary respite from politics as a guest on FTV's Time for Taiwan down in Kaohsiung. Saw some of the most amazing martial arts action. Follow the Read More for more pics and action!

Saturday, March 02, 2013

Saturday Night Short Shorts + Links

When Beijing Correspondents Write: How one security concern in Asia is quietly easing. I was going to rip this China-centered ditty until I saw it was from the Beijing correspondent, then figured there was no point in it. All parts of it are stiffly mediocre, but especially delightful is the writer's observation that Chen Shui-bian was "pro-independence" while the political orientation of Ma and the KMT are never referred to.

Ted Galen Carpenter on the ROC's Senkaku claims says there have been "angry demonstrations" in Taiwan's cities about the Senkakus. Hahahaha. With response from ROC representative too. Yet Carpenter's main points about the silliness of the ROC's desire to insert itself into the debate is largely correct. On the other hand, perhaps we should be thankful that the Ma Administration has decided to proxy for Beijing in this. Can you imagine the fallout if Chinese and Japanese ships attacked each other with water hoses? (or real weapons...)

Speaking of the Senkakus, DPP stalwart and former ambassador to the US Joseph Wu said that the Taiwan representative office in the US encouraged Nationalist groups in the US to protest against Japan. Pure nuttery. The devious position of the Ma Administration is rather like the covert anti-PRC, anti-independence campaign KMT operatives carry out in the refugee camps on Tibet's border. Whatever the specific issue, the tactics remain the same....

Can Taiwan resist Beijing's unification drive? Probably, if writers on the topic would learn their history and forthrightly represent Taiwan's pro-independence majority so that the world could understand what is going on. Not to mention stop writing sentences like "Since 1949, when the People’s Republic was founded, China has never stopped longing for the island..."

Notes from the New Kellogg-Briand Generation I: Kerry in his nomination hearings worried that the US might offend China with its tiny, limp pivot. Has he internalized Beijing's propaganda stances as a basis for analysis? A scary prospect.

Notes from the New Kellogg-Briand Generation II: Adm. Tim Keating, he of the Great Bush Arms Freeze of 2008, when a vast whiteout engulfed Taiwan's defense procurements from the US, thinks the US should train Chinese officers at the US military academies. Keating thinks this will help communications, etc. Except for being incredibly stupid, short-sighted, and suicidal, it's probably not a bad idea, since whenever China chooses to throw a fit over some US action, it will give them something to cut off that won't cost the US anything. The US military is like an Androcles perpetually searching for a thorn in the paw of the Chinese lion, and wondering why they keep getting scratched whenever they reach for it.

Conference participants say Taiwan must do more in its own defense. I wish somewhere there was a voice chiding the western democracies to do more in Taiwan's defense.

North Korea sues Taipower because it didn't deliver nuclear waste for disposal in North Korea, along with $300 million in hard currency. I can't wait to catch the one-liners on this one. This contract is for 60,000 barrels and was signed in...1997.
_______________
Links


_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.


Friday, March 01, 2013

Blast from the Past

Popular Mechanics, Sept 1924. Captioned: Formosa Women Struggling with the Family Washing in a Public Basic with Crude Stones (upper left). Even today, in a few older communities, the old public washing stones may still be found. Like these, I think.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.