Saturday, November 14, 2009

Ma: Half of Aboriginal Villages Must Be Moved

Thirty three of 64 aboriginal communities will have to be moved, according to President Ma....CNA via Taiwan News...
Thirty-three out of 64 aboriginal settlements around the country have been determined by experts as unsafe and will probably have to be relocated, President Ma Ying-jeou said Tuesday.

"We are working on plans to keep the aboriginal settlements at their original sites as much as possible, but if relocation is the only option, we hope the people living in these settlements will defer to the government's judgment," he said.

Aware that the residents of these settlements would rather rebuild their homes at their original sites, the president said safety should be the top consideration and urged people to look at the issue rationally.

"The government will find proper locations to rebuild settlements for these people," he said.

Citing a study by Chen Hung-yu, a geology professor, and Lin Ming-lang, a civil engineering professor, both at National Taiwan University, Ma said other 10 settlements are considered "safe with conditions," with the remaining 21 declared safe.

He said the two experts based their findings on aerial photos, topographic maps and satellite photos of the settlements.
Read that last sentence. The two experts didn't actually visit any of the sites. It's been three months now -- heck, I've visited that many aboriginal villages by bike in the last three months. However, Chen Hung-yu (陳宏宇) is an expert in using imagery to extract information. Chen Hung-yu is also the go-to guy who the media ask for quotes on landslides, quakes, and other issues of geological safety in Taiwan. He has been calling for greater awareness and deference to mountain safety issues for years.

In a post on the Ma Administration shock doctrine I pointed to a Taiwan News editorial that slammed the government for the new legislation rammed through after the typhoon. For years many aboriginal communities in the mountains have been a thorn in the side of developers, asking for more money, or protesting against projects. The new act gives the government the authority to order the aborigines to move, exempts the government from having to consider the environment, national parklands, or similar, and puts a commission composed of the government and large development corporations in charge of the project. Read the whole post, it is quite informative. Here were seeing the first fruits of the new law -- just in time for elections.

Note that during the Chen Administration the Chen government moved to give the aborigines greater autonomy and to pass new laws, sadly much ignored in practice by both of the major parties.

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Cross-Strait Relations: Political Theatre and Political Reality

Lin Cho-shui had a long commentary yesterday in the Taipei Times that showed how political theater and political reality are mixed in pundits' assessments of the ongoing ECFA/MOU sellout talks. Lin is a former DPP politician who left the party over Chen Shui-bian and now works as a political commentator. He writes:
The Chiang-Chen meeting was delayed by political factors, while the ECFA negotiations were delayed for economic reasons. The two sides have constantly argued over whether cross-strait talks should put economics before politics or focus on both, but now it seems there are both economic and political problems.

Politically, the problem is quite serious. It is not the Dalai Lama’s visit or the screening of the documentary about Rebiya Kadeer. Rather, the problem is Ma’s three conditions for political negotiations that he proposed indirectly through Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies chairman Chao Chun-shan (趙春山).

The first condition is finalizing a cross-strait financial memorandum of understanding (MOU) and signing an ECFA. This places business before politics, something that China does not like.

The second is a domestic Taiwanese consensus; since mainstream opinion supports Taiwanese independence, China is not pleased.

The third is international approval, which not only overturns Ma’s own promise that cross-strait relations override diplomatic concerns, it also invites foreign forces to interfere in what Beijing sees as China’s domestic affairs. This is even less acceptable to China.
I think Lin, while often insightful, is confusing the political theater with the actual politics in this case.

The three conditions proposed by Ma are the usual nonsense for public consumption. The MOU and ECFA will be signed because both the KMT and the CCP want them to be signed; they are necessary steps in the long-term process of absorption and annexation. Chinese officials have made this clear, as earlier this year a flunkie at a conference here said the Chinese viewed this as a necessary step in annexation. How can something the Chinese want be an obstacle to agreement? Anything said on this score is mere political theatre designed to impress or intimidate....

The second condition, consensus, is no more real than the first, though the Administration is now pushing it -- the other day Premier Wu said that they would want 60% support for ECFA. How could that be a problem? I blogged a while ago on ECFA and MAC polls....
Here are the first two questions that address the first paragraph:
  • 1. A cross-Strait MOU on financial services is a base document of cooperation to be signed by the financial regulatory authorities of both sides of the Strait for the exchange of information, confidentiality of information, regulatory mode, and mechanism of coordination. Do you think Taiwan should sign a cross-Strait MOU on financial service? (46.3% yes)
  • 2. To date, we have signed MOUs on financial services with 32 countries or areas. Do you think we should negotiate and sign an MOU with the Mainland? (52% yes)
Note how totally loaded question number 2 is; it appears that it is there only to produce a higher number in case (1) turned out to be a failure (as it actually did). MAC could also have given the percentage answer to number 1 as the actual level of support.
Questions 1 and 2 from a previous poll. Although the central meaning is practically identical, the wording is different, and so the response is different. Essentially, a skilled pollster can get 60% of respondents to agree to almost any proposition, so it will not be difficult for the government to make the MAC polls say what it wants.

But they don't even need that. All the Administration has to do is submit any ECFA agreement to the rubber-stamp legislature and then claim that legislative approval = public consensus = 60% support. There are lots of routes for avoiding this "problem" of obtaining a "consensus."

The third issue, international approval, is no better. It would be easy to find approving statements from policymakers in Europe and the US on cross-strait "reconciliation", or to point to statements like that of the European Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan telling Taiwan to hurry up and sign an ECFA, because everyone knows that after we sign the ECFA, everyone in Taiwan will instantly become rich, not to mention good looking and able to drive properly.

In short, the three problem-causing conditions are the usual Ma Ying-jeou scattering earnest political theater remarks over commentators like pixie dust to confuse and bedazzle.

The rest of the article is excellent, and in fact Lin identifies some of the real issues:
The real problem involves setting up financial institutions. Beijing insists on different entry thresholds for Taiwanese firms in China and Chinese firms in Taiwan, and it also wants to be allowed to invest in 8.5-generation flat screen plants in Taiwan using Taiwanese technology and personnel, but it refuses to promise not to block Taiwan from negotiating free-trade agreements with other countries.

These problems mean that Taipei has finally encountered Beijing’s most ambitious attack against Taiwan’s core strategic sectors, and this conundrum will not be easily resolved.
Read that bolded part again: China WILL NOT promise not to block Taiwan's FTAs with other nations. Read what it really says: even if Taiwan kowtows, China will block FTAs with other nations. Why else would they be preserving that option? All those foreign commentators who claim that China will let Taiwan have FTAs if only we sell out, take note.

What's driving the business is really Taiwan's financial services industry, which hopes to make a killing in the China market, and the local market be damned. Taiwan News reported today:
Local financial services executives are more keen about gaining access to China than they are concerned about competition once Taiwan's financial market is opened to Chinese banks, Lee Jih-chu, vice chairperson of the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC), said Friday.
Imagine that! No wonder the hot money is pouring into Taiwan in anticipation of the "opening" to China (opening the way the valve at the bottom of a toilet opens when you press the handle). Since I feel a burst of full-on Marxist Wallersteinian analysis coming on, I will refrain from further commentary on the ethics and goals of the global financial community.

FSC Chair Sean Chen also sent a message to the ECCT in his comments in the article above:
As to Chinese banks gaining access to Taiwan, Chen said that initially Chinese banks would only be allowed to set up a single branch in Taiwan and would likely target big clients, putting them mostly in competition with foreign banks operating here.
In 2o07, in another declaration from its alternate reality, the ECCT head said that Taiwan has failed to copy the Korean model and so has not done as well -- but simply showed that it understood neither the South Korean model nor the DPP government's policies. The excellent Commonwealth article in my daily links today recently observed of South Korea's response to China:
TIER research fellow Yang Chia-yen says the most obvious impact of South Korea's free trade agreements with the U.S. and Europe is that they have accelerated progress in the country's domestic legal environment and in conforming to international norms. Compared to the "Chaiwan"strategy adopted by Taiwan's government and enterprises, South Korea's diversified development strategy is worth considering.

Pondering the competition between South Korea and Taiwan, Yang warns: "If things go on like this, who will gain the edge and who will lose it, who will decline and who will grow – I'm afraid the answer will be brutal."

For once I agree with the ECCT -- Taiwan hasn't done as well as South Korea, because it hasn't followed the same diversified strategy. Read the whole article; even the Singapore diplomats are complaining about the Ma Administration's China obsession.
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Daily Links
  • Taoyuan Nights peers with jaundiced eye at claims for Asian housing markets
  • A friend flipped me this extensive and informative piece on ECFA from Commonwealth magazine, which is far from a pro-Green publication, commenting....
  • Commonwealth outdoes itself with this excellent report on the problems of ECFA. First it explains why unemployment will likely rise as SME flee to China. Then it explains how HK has suffered under its agreement with China only to further show how South Koreas has stalled on an agreement with China over fears of unemployment and instead focused on trade agreements with as many players as it can. Throw in a few shots at how the Ma admin is overly focused on China and you have a pretty good summary of your blogging for the past year. LOL.
  • Businessweek: Taiwan's tech dreams -- if we can survive the KMT's disastrous economic policies, Taiwan might well fly in the future tech industries.
  • Greentours in the UK praises the island's green tour potential
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Latest County Chief Election Polls from GV

JiufenErshanRide2
DPP candidates on a sign in Nantou.

Global Views, which is not pro-Green, released a set of polls on the county chief elections at the end of the year in Pingtung, I-lan, Nantou, and Chiayi. The results?

In I-lan, the DPP candidate has a 55%-44% lead. In Pingtung, it is 58-41. In Chiayi, where the KMT split, it is 54-44. Only in Nantou is the KMT leading, crushing the DPP candidate 61-33.

It's early, but that is good news.

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Friday, November 13, 2009

RDEC Fail

ROCforeigner
Taiwan What's Up, which is trying to become an info source for foreigners in Taiwan, sent around a survey about local web portals, which Forumosa then disseminated to the wider expat community (it's originally from the RDEC). The survey is weirdly designed as it is, but Feiren alerted me to a marker of the underlying racialist construction of ROC identity in question 26. Among the choices for defining yourself, you can be a Foreigner with ROC Nationality.

UPDATED: Decided to change it to RDEC to better reflect the origin of it
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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Economic Views

Global financial mavens are betting that Taiwan's currency is going to appreciate (go up in value), as Taiwan approaches the signing of the historic financial MOU with China, which probably won't have any benefits for the island as a whole, but which local financial firms appear to assume will make them big players in the emerging cross-strait financial market. In response, the government has moved to limit funds from foreigners invested in currency speculation.
Taiwan will bar foreign investors from putting money in time deposits with immediate effect, the island's financial regulator said on Tuesday, as the authority moves to curb what it sees as currency speculation.

The Financial Supervisory Commission announced the move at a news conference after the island's central bank said in October that foreign investors have parked about T$500 billion ($15.5 billion) in Taiwan dollar accounts.

Foreign funds have been actively entering Taiwan's forex market in recent months, on expectations that the currency will strengthen further.
To put it simply, each time someone puts money into Taiwan's banks as NT dollars, they must buy Taiwan dollars. This new demand puts pressure on the NT to rise in value, just as any other good might when demand for it rises. Not only does a rising NT threaten Taiwan's export industries at a delicate time -- it makes everything they sell more expensive -- but it also threatens a speculative bubble that could do grave harm to the economy when it pops.

Against this background Heritage Foundation today hosts a piece on Taiwan's economic relationship with China, with several excellent observations.
It may be difficult to imagine how the centerpiece of Taiwan's economic strategy could be anything other than more open trade and investment with the PRC. The PRC will shortly be the second largest economy in the world and, barring catastrophic events, will be one of the four largest economies indefinitely, perhaps even becoming the largest within a generation.[3] Such a market is obviously a powerful attraction to an island of 22 million people less than 150 miles off the Chinese coast. However, the most lucrative years for Taiwan-China business and trade have already passed.

As an investment, China is moving from a "growth" stock to a "value" stock. In terms of raw growth, the days of 14 percent GDP gains in the '90s and 12 percent GDP gains earlier this decade are gone, to be replaced (after the post-crisis bounce) by long-term growth of about 8 percent annually. And that is if all goes well.[4]

Specifically, the PRC's successful globalization means there are fewer opportunities left for Taiwanese companies. In the 1980s, the mainland desperately needed intermediaries to connect more fully to the outside world. That is no longer the case.

In the 1990s, China became one of the centers for global production. This process involved several hundred billion dollars of investment from elsewhere in East Asia for the purpose of relocating production to the PRC.[5] Preferential access for Taiwan at that time would have been economic and commercial gold. Now, China's cost advantages are at risk, and production will inevitably begin to move elsewhere. Both the mainland as a source of dynamism for the Taiwanese economy and Taiwan playing a pivotal role in mainland development in return are therefore waning--not waxing--forces.

Beyond China, a central Taiwanese motivation in negotiating ECFA is to secure access to trade pacts involving the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with which the island has considerable economic ties.[6] But there is no guarantee, even with an ECFA, that China will tolerate ASEAN extending such pacts to Taiwan. Further, the Taiwanese economic relationship with ASEAN shares the critical feature of the cross-straits relationship: a current lack of dynamism.

Other options should therefore be cultivated. In particular, Taiwan should seek partners poised for a period of especially rapid growth, better positioned to achieve rapid gains from fresh globalization, and in greater need of Taiwanese technology and service industries.

An obvious candidate is India. India is now entering a demographic expansion of similar magnitude and importance to the one the PRC is leaving.[7] Technology is an Indian strength but India's service sector offers many opportunities for mutual gain from Taiwanese investment. And, just as with the PRC earlier in the reform process, the potential size of the Indian economy makes opportunities for Taiwan effectively limitless. In some ways, India is China 15 years ago, with a decade of 12-13 percent growth potentially available, to be then possibly followed by the same 8 percent annual expansion China now seeks.
The piece ends with policy recommendations. Just what is China's economic growth is a matter of some controversy, as a piece on Politico today rounded up the voices of critics who think China's growth is in large part illusory. But Scissors' major point, that Taiwan needs to diversify away from China, is one that the DPP attempted to put into operation during its eight years at the helm of the government.

A move toward India has another obvious advantage, and that is India's position as a geostrategic counterweight to China. But our current administration, which has conceded our diplomatic space to the Chinese, isn't likely to move in that direction either diplomatically or economically.
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Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Finding a Happy Medium

Mediums are of great importance in local religion, but even mediums can switch careers. A recent Liberty Times story, translated for Taiwan Today, tells the story of one medium who, upon becoming tired of being a medium, became Taiwan's first baseball umpire. Oh yeah, she has a black belt in karate too:
When Liu was only one year old, people discovered her powers as a medium. By the time she was six, she had already begun helping friends and relatives in picking numbers for the various lotto games played in Taiwan. When she was 15 years old, she entered a temple where Taoist rites are held and quickly became the foremost medium there.

Liu said that by the time she was 26 years old, she had become exhausted with the lifestyle of a medium and decided to change her life path. She revealed that some temple mediums actually communicate the messages of ghosts rather than gods. Liu related one example in which a woman who was ill wanted her to write out a prescription. Liu said she relied on the help of the spirit of Li Bao-yan, a doctor from the Ming dynasty. In this case, she said, she was actually a medium to a doctor, translating his instructions. It was not like she was communicating with a god, she said.

Liu, who is presently 30 years old, said in a frank manner that she is in fact no more than an ordinary student now. “People seemed to have overly high expectations of me in terms of my powers as a medium. It really puts a lot of pressure on me,” Liu said. She added that quite often whether people are able to get the result that they desire largely rests with themselves.

Liu stressed gods are not going to go out of their way to help devotees to achieve what the gods believe are unimportant things, such as making lots of money. She added that they are not going to use mediums to pass along messages of such little importance to them. As for the increasing number of people who desire to be mediums, Liu expressed a few words of caution, saying, “You better be careful about who you are communicating with. If it is a ghost, you could find yourself being tormented quite a bit.”

Liu has been a baseball fan from the time she was a little girl. She said that she never considered giving up her dream just because she was female. Three years ago, she passed the exam to become a baseball umpire. Assisted by another umpire from the Chinese Taipei Baseball Association, Hung Su-ming, Liu became the first female home plate umpire on a ball field here in Taiwan. To date, she already has over 400 games under her belt as a base umpire or home plate umpire.

A small number of umpires did not want to have anything to do with her in the beginning. For example, there were some umpires who refused to sit in any seat that she had sat in. There were even cases in which umpires who made incorrect calls tried to place the blame on her. Nonetheless, she said none of these experiences caused her to lose enthusiasm for the game.

In the eyes of baseball players, Liu is actually a lucky charm on the diamond. She knows how to prevent conflicts on the field and can resolve tense situations through laughter. In addition, with a black belt in karate, she has the physical stamina to be able to umpire four games a day.
David Jordan has an interesting description here of a medium's first trance and its effect on the life of a village. He observes...
Spirit mediums, when they are not in trance, are just like everyone else. They plow fields, eat with their families, and drink with their friends. But when they are possessed, they speak with the voice of godly authority, and, not surprisingly, godly authority is very influential in village opinion. When the gods can be made to recommend public policy, they do so with great effect. The political implications of a new spirit medium were by no means lost on village people.
Since many will follow a medium's advice -- ultimately in the case discussed by Jordan the whole village did -- it is obvious that a politician who can subborn a medium has a powerful ally. In a temple near my house the medium frequently directs locals who come for help to a certain address in my township -- and what a coincidence! -- it's the address of the local KMT headquarters. It is understanding things like this that explain why a Miaoli politician who made donations to sixteen local temples to get them to push his candidacy to their followers was indicted for vote buying.

Margaret Chan discusses tang-ki (spirit medium) worship in a chapter that is online, noting that it has roots in old Chinese religious practice, and is also the religious practice of marginalized peoples.
Tang-ki (a Hokkien term, 乩童pinyin jitong) worship evolved among peasant people disenfranchised by the state religion. In imperial China rights to worship followed a strict hierarchy and lay entirely in the hands of the educated establishment. The response of the marginalised was to create a religion of people power. Where the emperor had to petition heaven and pray to be heard, tang-ki worshippers could summon gods to appear before them to do their bidding.
The bloody mortification that mediums undergo symbolizes the warrior tang-ki who does battle with violent demons, but it also authenticates the possession of the medium: surely no man could thus mutilate himself unless he was indeed possessed of a god. Chan ends with a beautiful paragraph on the performance aspect of medium worship:
Tang-ki worship relies on a performance contract between actor and spectator. Tang-kis perform for their audiences of devotees, the roles of well-loved gods drawn from Chinese folklore and mythology. The devotee-spectator accepts that the performance is a divine manifestation. Although the spectators can clearly see that the performer is a person (and probably one that they know as a family member or friend) they suspend disbelief, and believe, as an article of faith, that they are seeing a performance by a god incarnate. In tang-ki worship the staging of theatre is not for entertainment; among believers it is a magical ritual that transforms a mortal into god en-theos. The concept is one of transmogrification, not mere spirit possession and devotees believe that the tang-ki is truly a god in the flesh. In tang-ki worship the very act of theatre is a rite of incarnation where ritual is theatre, theatre is ritual.
This connection between theatre and ritual is also old in the west, as anyone who has studied Greek drama or medieval plays is aware. And so this brings us back to Liu, who, umpire or medium, is still mediating between fate and human beings in the context of a performance spectacle. May all the gods guide her!
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Monday, November 09, 2009

Daily Links, Nov 9, 2009


The island's best food? Perhaps in terms of flavor/value, it's the Vietnamese and Thai places that cluster around industrial districts. Here's the $60 shredded papaya at the Vietnamese place across from the industrial processing zone in Tanzi just north of Taichung.

I'd love to be blogging more, but I've just been swamped, it's never been like this before.

BLOGS:

This week President Ma was in Nantou with Premier Wu Den-yih, stumping for local politicians. Premier Wu has old Nantou connections and is a canny political player in local politics. He was featured here on this sign forming "public construction's iron triangle" (as the sign says) with two local candidates. No other national KMT figure was on a sign with any local KMTer, and President Ma was conspicuous by his absence. Nothing shows his decline in popularity better: in 2004 Ma was on many local candidates' signs. The sign also signals that with the close connections to the Premier, public construction funding will flow into Nantou to feed and water local patronage networks.

MEDIA: Taiwan's Supreme Court strikes down hugely unfair law under which it was legal to buy the services of a prostitute, but illegal to be one. Excellent piece from former AIT head Nat Bellocchi on Obama's coming visit to China. Chinese diplomat says US and Chinese reps are negotiating a "new intellectual framework" for US-China relations. Peng Ming-min, longtime democracy campaigner here, warns Ma that a Nobel for a peace agreement would be a sellout. Taitung Shaman school thrives. WSJ says Taiwan exports may resume growth in November, good news if true. Taiwan grounds nine Mirage fighters due to lack of parts. Taiwan's consumer prices fall, again. KMT buries 2-28 museum opening in 100th anniversary of ROC celebrations. Quake last week followed by 100 aftershocks. Taiwan Food show has special halal section.

The cute sign for Nangang ("south port") in landlocked Nantou far from the ocean, next to an advertisement for a local politician.

VIDEOS: Want a demure pair for work? An awesome pair for play? Try this inflatable bra.

Two candidates for the Nantou County Council. The top one identifies her as a KMT candidate for the council for Yuchih, Shuili, Hsinyi, and Jiji, and says: "Caring Even More, Going an even greater distance to serve" while the bottom booms out: "Busting up clan politics!" and "nepotism".
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Sunday, November 08, 2009

Boosting Competitiveness in Taiwan's Universities

DPA reports via Earth Times:
Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou on Saturday urged Taiwan universities to recruit foreign students to boost the island's international competitiveness and keep themselves in business. Because of Taiwan's low birthrate, the island's university have difficulty in recruiting students and dozens of them might be forced to close, he warned in his weekly newsletter.

Unless Taiwan universities boost their competitiveness, they would lose their top teachers and students to foreign universities, he added.

"If Taiwan wants to maintain its international competitiveness, our universities must offer more curriculum taught in English to lure foreign students," he said.

Ma said that of Taiwan's 70 universities, 39 offer courses taught in English. There is no university in Taiwan where all the courses are taught in English.

Ma noted that foreign students make up 1.3 per cent of the total number of university students in Taiwan and Taiwan wants to raise the percentage to 2.6 per cent in the next few years.
Taiwan News added some additional information:
In the face of increased efforts by foreign universities to woo Taiwan students by offering attractive scholarships, Taiwan must take immediate action not only to keep is elite students at home but also to lure foreign and Chinese youths to study here, Ma said.

He suggested that domestic universities develop "all English curriculums," as schools in Singapore, Hong Kong and European countries have been doing, to attract foreign students.

This will help solve the problem of low student numbers at some local universities, he said. Also, the entry of foreign and Chinese students to Taiwan universities will spur local students to study harder and will help to expand their global perspective, the president said.
Observe first, the President refers to Chinese students a couple of times. Taiwan colleges are also begging the government to let in students from China. A done deal? It bears all the earmarks of one.

I blogged last year on Taiwan universities and the drive for internationalization via English. The drive for foreign students is just another one of those moves to preserve up the current system in its present form by herding in more warm bodies rather than making the far reaching changes that would really be necessary to make the system competitive. And of course, there's another outcropping of the familiar internationalization = (more) English rather than internationalization = adoption of best practices from abroad. English, as so often in Taiwan, functions as a proxy for real internationalization.

It is true that the lack of English-language courses is a problem in attracting foreign students. I know of several cases of people who dropped out of programs when they found that there were few or no English-language courses, and many for whom the lack of such curricula is a barrier to application. I also know of cases where people have been refused admittance to programs because no courses were offered in English.

To really internationalize the system, pay would have to rocket up and foreign professors would have to become routine at all levels, as in the West. English would have to become widespread. But outside of the English departments and a few international MBA programs it is very difficult to be hired as a foreign professor, even if one could tolerate the "vow of poverty" as a friend of mine hired here once ruefully described Taiwan teacher pay. That gap in pay is the real reason Taiwan's best professors leave for work elsewhere. Nowhere does Ma address the problem that the pay levels of professors are determined centrally by the Ministry of Education -- which is the one thing he could address, theoretically at least, simply by giving the order.

There are somewhere around a million university students in Taiwan, as I recall seeing somewhere (can't seem to find a recent number on the net). If the current level of foreign students is actually 1.3%, then that is 13,000 warm bodies. If it is really true that by 2012 Taiwan's universities will be short 15,000 students, then it is intuitively obvious that another 13,000 foreigners would fill the gap. It is also intuitively obvious that by bringing in Chinese, the current system would not need to be changed, English would not need to be expanded, and everyone could keep their jobs. Hmmm.... wonder what they will choose.
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Riding to the heart of 921

Saturday morning I drove out to Nantou with my friend Drew and met up with Todd Alperovitz from The Daily Bubble Tea in Chunghsing Village. From there we began climbing....

Here is the route we took (an interactive version may be found at Bikemaps.net). We started by climbing up Jiufen Ershan, about 1000 meters, then went down 300 meters to the memorial area for the 921 earthquake. We then descended from there to 147, which runs north-south in the area northwest of Sun Moon Lake. On 147 we climbed back up to the ridgeline at around 700 meters, and then descended again to 131. From there it was downhill all the way to Chunghsing Village. Great ride, over 90 kms of lovely farms and imposing earthquake damage.

Nantou county is a major producer of betel nut.

Along the way there were plenty of bugs...like this lovely butterfly...

...and this harmless whip scorpion, who went into his defensive posture when he saw us.

Looking back. The ride up Jiufen Ershan was extremely steep, pretty much 7-10% grades the whole way.

Drew and Todd confer.

We stopped for a rest, and watched this spider wait patiently as this butterfly exhaust itself struggling to get free. Scientists recently found the world's oldest spider web.

Nearby caterpillers struggled to come forth from a cocoon.

At the summit of Jiufen Ershan were several tea farms.

Beetles grab a meal.

Along the crest of Jiufen Ershan is a set of natural and human memorials to the awesome power of the 921 quake, whose epicenter is near the top of the mountain.

We rode along that rode on the left there at the bottom of the ridge. When the quake hit, the whole face of the mountain slide away, 10 hectares in area, and fell into the valley below, where it dammed two rivers. That's right, the flat area there is a gigantic landslide scarp. The government immediately constructed a spillway to prevent flooding. Brave fellows, whoever those workers were.

A couple of hundred meters from the epicenter are some extremely disturbed chunks of strata. Here Todd poses. There's a small eatery where a simple lunch can be had. The owner has pictures from the quake aftermath there, which is happy to explain to you.

Very disturbed.

A few smashed buildings remain.

Come into my parlor, said the spider to the fly.

Drew and Todd contemplate the view. We descended from here through lovely farming scenery to 147.

Two species say hello. At 147 there is a small deer paddock in the village of Nangang ("south port"). Nangang township's symbol is the deer.

Taiwanese love to use old styrofoam containers as planters.

Not a good day for photos, but you can get a sense of the gorgeous valley that 147 pushed through.

Todd and friends.

147 linked to 131, another lovely ride through farms. We took 131 downhill to Nantou past the reservoirs at the top of the Choshui River....

....and stopped in Shuili for slushies. Todd and Drew looking great after a wonderful ride.

Shuili market.

In Shuili local kayakers were out practicing.

Further down Rte 16 Drew spotted this boundary stele dating back to the Qing period.

The famous leaning tower of Taiwan, a relic of 921, which you can see from Highway 3 on the way through Nantou. The area is littered with such sights, and the maps and tourist spots advertise a "921 Earthquake Tour" of them.
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Friday, November 06, 2009

The Once and Future US Retreat on China's Colonial Expansion?

Apologies for the light blogging; just swamped with work this week.

The US State Department's latest version of its background notes on Taiwan are out, so it is appropriate that we glance at US-Taiwan-China relations....

The Taipei Times hosted a commentary today from former Japanese diplomat Hisahiko Okazaki. Its major point:
Through the 37-year history of US-China engagement, the US has consistently retreated in the war of semantics about Taiwan. The US has been unable to muster points against the steel wall of one-party dictatorship. It lost inch-by-inch every time. Each time, however, Washington reassured the US public that its position hadn’t changed.

How deceptively the US position had eroded can be seen in the comments made by Clinton. He began his remarks on the “three nos” by stating that he was reiterating US policy on Taiwan but not specifying the time of the previous remarks, whether it was during his meetings in Beijing or much earlier. Then national security adviser Sandy Berger said the US had simply repeated its basic position.

In fact, the US has consistently shifted its position. It started with an admirably objective statement by then national security adviser Henry Kissinger in 1972: “The US acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.”
The piece isn't bad in its intent, but that last paragraph is completely wrong. The Kissinger statement marks the beginning of the retreat, not the last outpost of sanity, for Nixon had agreed to throw Taiwan under a large public transportation vehicle (see here, here for fascinating Nixon/Kissinger exchange on Taiwan independence movement)....
However, accounts of President Nixon's secret talks with PRC Premier Zhou Enlai in China in 1972 reported that Nixon made promises on the question of Taiwan in return for diplomatic normalization that went beyond the communique issued at the end. The Carter Administration later called the promises: "Nixon's Five Points." Also, according to Assistant Secretary of State Stanley Roth's March 1999 testimony, Nixon pledged no U.S. support for Taiwan independence (second time after Kissinger's 1971 promise): "We have not and will not support any Taiwan independence movement." With the release on December 11, 2003, of declassified memoranda of conversation of the secret talks between Nixon and Zhou, there was confirmation that Nixon stated as first of Five Principles that "there is one China, and Taiwan is a part of China. There will be no more statements made -- if I can control our bureaucracy — to the effect that the status of Taiwan is undetermined." (source)
The Nixon-Kissinger dialogue linked above highlights another ridiculous aspect of the Shanghai Communique: nobody consulted the people of Taiwan. If you don't consult the people whose fates you are deciding, you can't blame them for refusing to go along. In fact Washington's position hasn't changed: the status of Taiwan is undetermined, as it most recently reiterated in 2007 when UN Sec-Gen Ban Ki-moon rejected Chen Shui-bian's letter. What has changed is the obfuscation that swirls around that position, as well as the strategic calculus in Asia, and of course, the effectiveness of PRC propaganda.

Meanwhile SCMP reported today that the Chinese want Obama to sell out Tibet:
Diplomats from the world's two most influential nations are still negotiating details of the summit between Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao. The Chinese side has suggested Obama state that "Tibet is part of China's territory and the US opposes Tibetan independence", the Chinese envoys say.

Obama will visit Shanghai and Beijing between November 15 and 18. An agreement on this most sensitive political issue would be a triumph for Beijing and could help end deadlock on strategic issues, though human rights campaigners and the US Congress would be bound to criticise it.
The article says that while it is not likely Obama will make a public declaration, a behind-closed-doors agreement is not out of the question. Brrr.....
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Daily Links
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Thursday, November 05, 2009

Shocked-I-Tell-You Events

Happiness is an office decorated with my daughter's paintings.

I was shocked, I tell you shocked, to learn that Premier Wu Den-yih, back before he received his promotion to his current exalted state, traveled to Bali Island in Indonesia with a prominent Nantou gangster back in December, as the pro-Blue CTI reported (quickie translation from Google, slightly cleaned up):
根據周刊報導,吳敦義任職國民黨秘書長期間,曾偕妻子蔡令怡與中部黑道大哥江欽良,共赴印尼渡假盛地峇里島五日,同行者還包括南投縣長李朝卿、議員李增全、竹山鎮紫南宮主委莊秋安、草屯鎮代表會主席林焜熠夫婦。由於江欽良仍在假釋期,且自十餘歲出道累積逾30項的犯案前科,令人高度質疑吳揆力挺查緝黑道的決心。

According to a Next Weekly reports, when Wu Den-yih was KMT Secretary General, he and his wife and central Taiwan triad leader Jiang Qin Liang, went to the Indonesian resort island of Bali for five days while traveling, together with Nantou County Magistrate Li Zhaoqing, Mr Li Zeng-Quan, Chushan Town Purple Palace Chairman Zhuang Qiu-An, and Mr Lam Kun-Yi of the Tsaotun Township Council and their wives. As Jiang Qin Liang was still on parole from a ten year sentence, with a record of 30 previous convictions for various offenses....
A spokesman said on behalf of Premier Wu that he had gone there to gain ideas for tourism. Clearly, to attract so august a crowd, Bali Island must have many lessons for land-locked Nantou.


Out walking the pet chicken in front of an apartment complex in Linkou as the stray dogs look on hungrily.

When last we heard from the High Speed Rail on this blog, the government was taking it over as the system was unable to service its debts. The government takeover was necessary to get the political leverage so that the state banks would re-do the loans at a lower rate. Sure enough, the news came out today that the government banks had agreed to refinance the loans...
The Taiwan High Speed Rail Co. (THSRC) yesterday secured a total of NT$ 382 billion in loans from a bank consortium at an average interest rate of 1.8%, helping to relieve the firm from its heavy financial burden. The THSRC also pledged to assist the state-owned shareholders to obtain more than half of the seats on the THSRC board, which is scheduled to be reshuffled next week.

An official pointed out that the bank consortium consisted mainly of eight state-owned banks, including the Bank of Taiwan and the Land Bank of Taiwan, but the bank consortium intended to solicit the participation of several private banks. According to local media, some private banks, including Taipei Fubon Bank and the Chinatrust Commercial Bank, have shown interest.
The comment about the HSR company helping government-connected people get a seat on the board reminds me of this article on China's burgeoning private equity muscle. Private equity firms typically invest in companies in which they see a gap between current management's ability to make money and their own assessment of the potential of the firm. They then chuck out the previous underperforming management, bring in experienced pros to run the companies, and sell off the firm after a few years at large profits, which are repaid to the original private equity investors.

This business has largely been the domain of westerners but China now has the money to begin focusing on Taiwan's listed corporations. Once they have purchased shares it will be easy to install pro-China lackeys, or Chinese themselves, on the boards (Taiwan shareholders typically don't vote). I'm sure you'll be shocked to find that economic relations are not apolitical, despite the claims of thoroughly clueless futurists. Economist Peter Chow wrote a great piece in the Taipei Times the other day on some of the really deep issues involved in moving closer to China.

Screen capture from Taipei Times the other day. Impersonators of Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek with a local political candidate.

Quote of the week: I had my students do pro/con essays on the topic of living together, and one male dolefully informed me that one of the disadvantages of cohabiting is that "you must be honest" with your partner.

Those of you into trivia can answer this one which appeared on H-Asia:
I wonder if anybody knows about Hollywood films on Taiwan or Taiwanese issues produced in the 1950s-60s. Is there any equivalent of ‘Sayonara’ or ‘The World of Suzie Wong’ set in Taiwan? There have been many studies on the culture during the Cold War and the American representation of Asia, but I haven’t come across anything specifically addressing Taiwan, therefore I would be grateful if anybody can kindly let me know.
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Daily Links
Sad to learn Taiwan lost 400 historic puppets in warehouse fire. Taiwan What's Up says foreigners will soon enjoy lower tax rates. Slightly lower. Over at China Beat there is a reallllly great post on the reconstruction of Hsiaolin Village by Paul Katz. Finally, don't miss this excellent interview with one of the architects of the Taiwan health care system in the NY Times.
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Monday, November 02, 2009

Fourth Round of ECFA Talks Postponed

Breaking news this evening as the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), which does not, as its title would suggest, help Taishang manage their mistresses in Shenzhen, announced that the fourth "informal" round of ECFA talks has been postponed.
Huang Chih-peng, chief of the Bureau of Foreign Trade under the Economics Ministry, said that the ministry had already received a message from the Mainland stating that the details of the consultations and progress required further discussion. As a result, Huang said that the two sides decided to postpone the informal talks. Asked whether the delay was related to the intense media coverage of public concern about the progress of a cross-Strait ECFA, the Economics Ministry spokesman declined to comment.
This week the European Chamber of Commerce here said that Taiwan should sign the ECFA with China as soon as possible, which would help it gain a market opening agreement with Europe. It might be helpful to review what has happened so far with agreements with China. Fortunately Taiwan News had a helpful summary today:
Although the KMT government confidently promised that 3,000 Chinese tourist arrivals daily and would inject NT$60 billion annually into the economy, the actual volume of PRC travellers averaged only 1,307 from December 2008 through September 2009, a fraction of the average 11,897 daily visits to the PRC by Taiwan citizens during the same period.

Moreover, the substantive benefits to Taiwan's economy and employment are subject to a substantial "discount'' due to the concentration of PRC package tour groups in the hands of PRC-approved tour companies and the "squeezing out'' of spending by higher-spending tourists from Japan or other nations and many local citizens who avoid sites frequented by PRC tour groups.

Although the number of PRC tourists more than doubled year on year to nearly 624,000 during the first eight months of 2009, the inflow of Japanese tourists, who spend 1.4 times more daily and spread their activity and purchases far more widely in Taiwan, shrank 10.7 percent to just over 638,000.

According to an estimate by the DPP's Policy Research and Coordination Department, gross revenues from Chinese tourism over the past 15 months has amounted to NT$32.8 billion, far less than the promised NT$60 billion annual input.

Moreover, the establishment of direct marine and air links has failed to revitalize Taiwan's major gateways such as Kaohsiung Port and Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport.

During the first half of 2009, Taiwan's main port of Kaohsiung, which was supposed to be revitalized by the implementation of direct links, suffered a 21.1 percent drop in cargo traffic, for the second worst record among East Asia's top 10 seaports.

During the first eight months of 2009, arrivals and departures through Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport fell nearly 11.5 percent, while total air cargo throughput dropped nearly 25 percent. While much of the decline is attributable to the economic recession, the structuring of the "direct links'' agreements in line with the PRC's characterization as "domestic routes'' also contributes to these declines.

Most of Taiwan's shipping fleet, mainly "flag of convenience'' cargo vessels, are barred from cross-strait marine shipping since they are "foreign'' registered, while Beijing's denial of fifth-freedom onward connections for Taiwan airliners and restriction of cargo shipments to direct cross-strait trade is reducing Taiwan's air and sea ports from "Asia-Pacific'' marine and air "hubs'' into "spokes'' for PRC ports, notably Shanghai.

Moreover, the toothless agreement on cross-strait food safety has failed to deliver the promised reparations for Taiwan companies hurt by imports of melamine - laced milk powder, while a pact on "judicial assistance'' inked in April has yet to result in the extradition of a single major economic fugitive back to Taiwan.
Similar points were made in the Taipei Times today. The DPP claimed that arrivals from other nations had fallen, including Taiwan's bread-and-butter South Koreans, whose arrivals had plunged 35%.

The confidence of foreigners like the European Chamber in the promises of China to Taiwan continues to amaze me, in light of these simple facts. Well, actually it doesn't -- a couple of years ago a delegation of pro-Taiwan academics traveled the capitals of western Europe and was told to get on with the business of unification so everyone could make money -- whereas in eastern Europe the locals knew exactly what was what.

Perhaps China will permit Taiwan to have free trade agreements (FTAs) with other nations, but why should it? China already has FTAs with many those nations, or will under upcoming agreements. Consider that if Taiwan does not have FTAs, then its businessmen will be compelled to move to China in order to take advantage of lower tariffs. There is in reality little incentive for China to permit Taiwan to have real FTAs with other nations. That is why one thing the US can do to aid Taiwan is to pursue an independent FTA with Taiwan, which will encourage other nations to do so.

A couple of other points -- people in the know are reporting that the old government message (ECFA will save Taiwan!) under the former Liu Cabinet is going to be replaced by an upgraded Version 2.0, which will strike a more nuanced tone of "benefits exceed costs". The line that ECFA will not damage sovereignty will continue, however.

Also, note again -- ECFA is NOT a free trade agreement. It's an agreement to open certain markets and industries to certain kinds of economic activities. Expect that to become more prominent in the government line as well. FTAs will be follow on agreements.....
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Daily Links, Nov 2, 2009

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What's moving about the blogs today?
MEDIA: Great article in the Jerusalem Post on travel here. President Ma fortunately unhurt when smoke pours from plane after domestic flight. Taiwan to review Chinese investment rules for Taiwan by year's end. Guantanamo detainees go to Bermuda, a Taiwan ally. Jonathon Adams on the scandals in Taiwan baseball. 20,000 march in LGBT parade. China blocks visit of former VP Annette Lu to Cairo. Undergrad seeking nude models sparks controversy -- Oscar Wilde was so dead on when he said that selfishness is not living how you want, but forcing others to live how you want. Ming Chuan U builds campus in Kinmen to attract Chinese students. Chinese spouses want work rights in Taiwan. TSMC to build two new fabs in Taiwan. National Council of Churches in Taiwan to hold cross-strait forum in Nov. Scientists discover that Tatun Mountain outside Taipei is probably still active. Good thing Taiwan put two nuke plants on one side of the mountain, eh? Taiwanese with terminal illnesses pioneer "living funerals" in advance of their deaths. Eastern Washington's awesome Taiwan. Government says it will make airport, ports into corporations. KMT Central Standing Committee members resign en masse over allegations of bribery in the party election. Two of the members even had their KMT membership revoked. Who cares? Morakot and overfishing: only 25% of Orchid Island corals still alive. Income taxes to fall next year.

AWARDS AND EVENTS: Taiwanderful is organizing the annual Taiwan Blog Awards. Taiwanderful is a community website managed by David Reid and Gilad Feldman. David is the author of the popular Taiwan blog, David on Formosa. Gilad, based in Hong Kong, blogs about Asia at Fili's World. Register your blog there by Dec 1 to get in on the action!

Also, Jerome's monthly meet up is Saturday the 7th.

REFERENCES: An entire chapter on Taiwanese labor in the Japanese empire is online in this Google book on Labor in the Japanese Empire in WWII. Enjoy!
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Saturday, October 31, 2009

Events and Announcements

First, the meet up in Taipei, Nov 7, with a very special speaker. Then AmCham Taichung is having a walkathon on Nov 15.

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Jerome:

The speaker for Breakfast Club on November 7th will be Joseph Wu, former Taiwan Representative in Wash. DC and now Research Fellow at the Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi Univ.


His topic will be the DPP Perspective on Taiwan-China Relations. Q&A will follow. The venue is the same as it has been for the past months. Time is 10 am.

The meeting location is the restaurant 婷婷翠玉 at 174 AnHe Road, Section Two. (rough translation of name is Tender, Pretty Green Jade.) You will be able to tell the restaurant by the lace curtains on the window--it was used in a TV commercial a while back. (We will have the downstairs room--breakfast cost will range between NT$100 and NT$150. Phone if lost 2736-8510.

Restaurant is between Far Eastern Plaza Mall/Hotel and HePing East Road--about a half a block north of the corner of HePing East Road Sec. 3 and AnHe Road. or a half a block south of Far Eastern Plaza on the AnHe Road side.

Take the MRT Mucha Line to the Liuchangli Station exit there, and walk west on HePing East Road 3/4 of a block till you reach where AnHe Road dead-ends into it.Then go north on AnHe Road; it is a half a block up on the west side of that street.

Or take any bus down HePing East Road and get off at the first stop that is east of Tun Hua South Road. That will put you at the corner of HePing and AnHe.
You can also take a bus down Tun Hua South Road to the stop right across from Far Eastern Plaza and walk over to AnHe Road.
Or if you take the 235 bus east, it turns off of HePing onto AnHe Road and the first stop is right across from the restaurant.

To keep me abreast of headcount; please email me if you plan to attend.

Jerome
jkeating@ms67.hinet.net


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Taichung Amcham KIDZ Charity Walkathaon 2009
Sunday November 15th 2009
2:00pm-3:00pm
Taichung Metropolitan Park

Each orphaned child requires NT$50,000 per semester to cover high school tuition fees, books and meals. With 19 children to support the need for funding is crucial.

It takes a village to raise a child and so this event aims to bring the people of Taichung together as a community to participate in a healthy and fun way to raise money for orphaned children. Supported by Mayor Hu and organized by us, the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), we are looking for upwards of 1,000 walkers to join us in a walk through Taichung’s popular Metropolitan Park on November 15th 2009.

Each person who wishes to come and walk with us should try to raise as much money as they canfrom their friends, families and coworkers in support of them taking part in this event. The money raised will be used to fund the high school education of disadvantaged orphaned children at the Hsiang Shang Children’s Foundation which is based in Taichung.

We share the belief that education is very important to the future of any child. It is important to us to acknowledge that there are many children in our own community here in Taichung who are are at a serious disadvantage once they reach high school age. Therefore, we at AmCham aim to provide a brighter future for these and other children through our KIDZ Charity Program. It is also important to note that the costs to run this event are minimal and therefore, more than 96% of the money raised at this event will go directly to helping the foundation.

We hope you can come and be a part of this new and fresh idea to bring our community together and raise the funding needed to support these disadvantaged children and give them the future that they need and deserve.

If you wish to take part in this walkathon please email us
walkathon@amchamtaichung.org
For more information http://walkathon.amchamtaichung.org
Keep update with other AmCham event at www.amchamtaichung.org


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Daily Links
  • Pashan's threefive-day hike in the central mountains is so great, I'm linking again. The 3000 meter peaks of central Taiwan with stunning pics (including one cute weasel): one, two, three. Read every one, the hike is amazing.
  • Seoul Times commentary: total propaganda. Do not read while sober.
  • Buddhist group gets people to donate cadavers for medical training.
  • European Chamber here says Taiwan should sign ECFA since after that everyone will want agreements with it.
  • Asian Correspondent, with commentary, news, and posts from all over, has been launched.
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Biking the Gaomei Wetlands

Took my friend Karl, who first came to Taiwan sometime in the Qing Dynasty and who actually invented 555 cigarettes and Taiwan beer, out to the Gaomei Wetlands today, his first serious bike ride in about twenty years. It's always great to show a close friend new places in Taiwan by bike, and Karl responded enthusiastically with cogent commentary on law, medicine, and saltwater structural engineering. Here he is attempting to exorcise the demon Hu Jintao from its palace in Beijing.

The Gaomei Wetlands are located off of Gaomei Rd in Chingshui, a pleasant bike ride through rice farms and small factories, betel nut stands, breakfast shops, and the dian mian housing that comprises so much of Taiwan's residential stock.

I waited for Karl out by the airport, and snapped this pic of wood drying in front of a shop.

South of the wetlands are wind machines, dead today on a slow wind day.

Large flocks of herons and egrets and other waterbirds may be seen.

The seawall here cuts through the wetlands....

...but wherever there is a small stream and plenty of mud, animal life may be found.

Here a crab attempts to disappear into the oily muck that passes for water in the local streams. The mud flats are lined with tiny holes, testimony to the thousands of crabs that live in the area.

From the top of the bridge there are good views of the area, unfortunately overwhelmed with haze today.

Egrets look for breakfast.

Tadpole? Catfish? Lungfish? Mud puppy?

A crab makes its way across the inevitable litter at the mouth of the stream, in this case a burlap sack.

As we rode along next to the seawall, two men on bikes were parked in front of a brown fence. Excitedly they waved us over so we could experience the high point: a site of important biological interest. Apparently this is one of the few locations where this plant, "discovered" by the Japanese in 1917, occurs.

Here is an image of the plant. Impressive, eh? In the grip of fierce emotions, Karl and I were forced to leave after thirty seconds.

I took Karl back through one of my favorite rides, the rice fields north of the river to Jiushe and thence to Houli.
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