Poll-itics

I think the next few months are going to fun as we watch the Blue media sort out how it is going to react to having a Blue legislature and a Blue Administration in power. For the last eight years the Blue media here have taken leave from ethics and restraint in unabashed bashing of the DPP. The tension in Blue newsrooms between servile kowtows to the political parties they serve, and their anti-government reflexes, must surely be a thing to behold.

In the meantime, the Net is abuzz with a remarkable TVBS poll, which ESWN was kind enough to put on his website. The numbers themselves are unremarkable...

Q3. If you can choose, would your prefer Taiwan to become an independent country, or unify with mainland China, or become a state in the United States of America?
58%: Independent country
17%: Unified with mainland China
8%: Become a state in the United States of Amreica
17%: No opinion

Q4. If you can choose, would you prefer Taiwan to become an independent country, or unify with mainland China?
65%: Independent country
19%: Unified with mainland China
16%: No opinion

Q5. In our society, some people think that they are Chinese while other people think that they are Taiwanese. Which do you think you are?
68%: Taiwanese
18%: Chinese
14%: Don't know/refused

....reflecting numbers that we've seen in other polls. What's remarkable about them is that they come from TVBS, which got in trouble a while back for being 100% Chinese-owned, and has supported the Blues unstintingly since Day 1. Also on tap at ESWN is a China Times poll -- CT is a Blue-stalwart from way back -- that says approval for Ma is falling while disapproval is rising. A DPP poll had found that a few days ago, and an Apple Daily poll found similar numbers. Taiwan News observed:

Moreover, the survey of 889 Taiwan adults carried out June 5 and June 6 found that satisfaction with the performance of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Kuomintang had slipped to 50.8 percent from 54.

DPP Public Survey Department Director and former Research, Development and Evaluation Commission deputy director-general Chen Chun-lin (陳俊麟) stated that "we rarely see a leader's satisfaction ratings fall so fast and dissatisfaction rating rise so rapidly."

The DPP pollster said the KMT president had originally aimed to use cross-strait liberalization and Chinese tourism to compensate for concern on the economy and oil prices, but noted that the poll showed that the poor handling of the oil price hikes and other issues by the KMT Cabinet of Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) had affected Ma's ratings.

"These results should be a warning to the Ma government that most Taiwanese people are deeply concerned over its concessions on sovereignty and lack confidence in its competence on domestic policy," Chen stated.

According to the DPP poll, 68.3 percent agreed that Taipei should "uphold dignity and not allow any concessions on Taiwan's sovereignty" in the cross-strait negotiations between Taipei's semi-official Strait Exchange Foundation and Beijing's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits.

Only 22.8 percent said that "for the sake of resuming talks, Taiwan can make some concessions on the sovereignty issue," the DPP pollster related, while 8.9 percent had no opinion.

The Taiwan News piece did not mention, probably due to a lack of space, that 59% of adults felt that Taiwan's security would not be significantly enhanced even if the PRC did make some reductions in the missiles pointed at the island. As many have noted, the real problem isn't what weapons are pointed at us, but the intent to use weapons in the first place.

The public is deeply angry over the price increases, but I think politically the Ma government's move was wise. Make them feel the pain early, get it over with, as the public has short memories. I've heard lots of complaints but I spend so much time in Deep Green Tainan that I can't say how representative they are. I have also heard that some of the Blue media are withholding their polls from the public because they do not reflect favorably on Ma.

Old habits die hard.

[Taiwan]

Appeasement of China Reaches Unprecedented Heights as Bush Capitulates on Arms

Had a lot of trouble titling this one.... Wendell Minnick reports from Taipei for Defense News that the Bush Administration has frozen arms sales to Taiwan.

As China and Taiwan prepare for their first official talks in more than a decade, sources in both Taipei and Washington say the U.S. State Department has decided to freeze all congressional notifications for $12 billion worth of arms sales to Taiwan.

Sources are mixed on whether the freeze will extend through the remainder of the Bush administration or only until after the August Beijing Olympics. Fears in Taipei are the freeze could become permanent with a new U.S. president in January.

The freeze is part of an effort not to derail Beijing-Taipei negotiations, scheduled to begin June 11, or disturb plans by U.S. President George W. Bush to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics.

The freeze covers about $12 billion worth of weapon sales now being processed under the Pentagon's Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program and items still awaiting approval, including 30 Boeing AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters, 60 Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, eight diesel electric submarines, four Raytheon Patriot PAC-3 air defense missile batteries and 66 Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 50/52 fighters. The freeze does not include 12 Lockheed Martin P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, which have already been approved.

Sources are saying the State Department, along with heavy lobbying by officials assigned to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, has been pushing hard to freeze arms sales to Taiwan to placate China. The freeze comes at a bad time for the U.S. defense industry, with expected cuts in defense spending and recent problems in the U.S. economy.

Beijing also has been successful at curtailing U.S. defense company activities in Taiwan. Boeing closed its Taipei office two years ago after threats that Beijing would curtail future sales of commercial aircraft.

There's really nothing to say. Heritage analyst John Tkacik, quoted in the article further down, notes:

"Here, the word is the White House won't move forward unless Ma asks, and Ma isn't asking," Tkacik said. "KMT people blame the delay on the U.S., and the U.S. smiles its Cheshire-Cat smile and says, 'Taiwan hasn't asked.' It seems there's a decision in Washington to shove Taipei into Beijing's warm embrace, and Taipei's leadership is too divided on the issue to make a decision."

Mark Stokes also notes that the Administration's move is in violation of the spirit, if not the letter, of the Taiwan Relations Act:

Mark Stokes, former country director for China and Taiwan in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 1997-2004, and described by many in the defense community as the "staff coordinator" of the 2001 decision to offer Taiwan submarines, PAC-3s and P-3 Orions by the Bush administration, said the freeze violates the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).

"I would argue that the holding of these notifications, and refusal to accept and act upon the LOR for price and availability constitutes a freeze on arms sales to Taiwan. Nothing more and nothing less," he said. "This assertion is based upon more than a decade of direct and intimate involvement in the process. It also violates the spirit, if not the letter, of the Taiwan Relations Act, a legal document that seems to be getting less and less attention these days."

It is obvious that the Bush Administration has quietly frozen arms to Taiwan for several years now, making hollow the claims that Taiwan doesn't care about its own defense -- with $12 billion in orders awaiting US fulfillment. $12 billion for US workers. $12 billion to keep our defense companies in business and lower our own prices (remember, when we produce more weapons, their prices falls). The international ramifications are vast -- how will India and Japan respond when they see the capitulationist positions of the State Department and the Bush Administration? How will this affect the current European embargo of arms to China?

There is really nothing more to say about this gross betrayal of a longtime ally to curry favor with China, done so that the President can attend the Olympics. Just another example of how China is adept at obtaining permanent results from the US in exchange for temporary favors from China.

Time for Congress to step in and force the sale.

[Taiwan]

Training South on a gorgeous Taiwan Day

A totally stunning day after many days of rain, and there I was on the train with a clean window, and empty camera, fresh batteries and two hours to kill. Don't get many days like this....

One reason I like the train is that you always see the backside of everything, where people just let reality go instead of giving it nice neat presentations like they do in the front.

A stream flows through Changhua. The skies today were unbelievable, and the mountains rang clear for the first time in ages.

Plenty of that good Taiwan countryside to soak up.

The sky is like a painting.

The land of farms and rice fields.

"I thought I parked the Rolls right here...."

Sudden views into small towns.

Home and rice flats.

Mud flats.

This Japanese-looking building stands out on the central Taiwan plain.

Everywhere you look, there were men at work.

The ride south is studded with old san he yuan homes.

Irrigation systems criss-cross southern Taiwan. The first regional systems were installed under the Japanese.

Clear views of the mountains all the way down.

Harvesters were out in force today.

An expressway shoots across the landscape.

It reminds you of why they call the island "Formosa."

Steep mountains have strange eroded shapes.

The width of the rivers gives you some idea of why land travel was so difficult in Taiwan prior to the invention of the railroad and the construction of dams.

Mountain ranges as far as the eye can see.

Rice ripens in the bright sunlight.

This company and its wrecks actually extend over quite a distance.

In Douliu the traffic halts for the train.

A mechanical rice picker waits to trash Spock's ears.

Another type of structure lining the track are hundreds of pigeon coops. Here's one....

....and here's another.

Harvesters take a rest.

Tombs are often shoehorned into rice fields.

The HSR shoots across the landscape.

Workers on a duck farm in Tainan county.

[Taiwan]

Meet Up June 14

Jerome sends around the meeting notice:

+++++++++++++++++++

To all,

We will have our monthly meeting this Saturday June 14 at 9:30 am.

Speaker: Dr. Lily Lin, Assistant Professor and Counselor at Taipei Medical University and a licensed psychologist in California.

Topic: "Taiwan Youth (particularly those of high school and university age)--Where They Are and How They Got There."

Venue:
The meeting location is the restaurant 婷婷翠玉 at 174 AnHe Road, Section Two. (rough translation of name is Tender, Pretty Green Jade.) You will be able to tell the restaurant by the lace curtains on the window--it was used in a TV commercial a while back. (We will have the downstairs room--breakfast cost will range between NT$100 and NT$150. Phone if lost 2736-8510.

Restaurant is between Far Eastern Plaza Mall/Hotel and HePing East Road--about a half a block north of the corner of HePing East Road Sec. 3 and AnHe Road. or a half a block south of Far Eastern Plaza on the AnHe Road side.

Take the MRT Mucha Line to the Liuchangli Station exit there, and walk west on HePing East Road 3/4 of a block till you reach where AnHe Road dead-ends into it.Then go north on AnHe Road; it is a half a block up on the west side of that street.

Or take any bus down HePing East Road and get off at the first stop that is east of Tun Hua South Road. That will put you at the corner of HePing and AnHe.
You can also take a bus down Tun Hua South Road to the stop right across from Far Eastern Plaza and walk over to AnHe Road.
Or if you take the 235 bus east, it turns off of HePing onto AnHe Road and the first stop is right across from the restaurant.

This promises to be an interesting session; Dr. Lin will share her experience to help us get a handle on today's Strawberry Generation. Their goals, thoughts, image etc.

Jerome

++++++++++++++++++++

[Taiwan]

Beijing and Taipei Ante Up

First, from the Beijing side: their position on the alleged "1992 Consensus" as reported in the Washington Times....

China stands ready to discuss a broad range of sensitive military, economic and diplomatic issues with Taiwan if the island's new government accepts Beijing's terms on national sovereignty, China's U.S. Ambassador Zhou Wenzhong said Thursday.

"We have made clear that as long as they agree to the one-China principle, everything can be discussed," Mr. Zhou said, including such topics as China's military buildup across the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan's participation in international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO).

In other words, there is no 1992 consensus with "one China, two interpretations." There is only One China, and it is ruled from Beijing. Not only does the Ambassador make that crystal clear, I've heard that the Chinese have also articulated that position privately to US observers.

President of the ROC Ma Ying-jeou was also mentioned as articulating his position in an interview with the Japanese:

Mr. Zhou's suggestion that China would be willing to discuss its military buildup came as Mr. Ma told the Japanese Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper, in its edition published Friday, that the withdrawal of China's missile arsenal opposite the island was a precondition for talks on an ultimate political settlement.

"In order to reconcile with each other, we should hold peace talks on both sides [of the Taiwan Strait]," Mr. Ma said. "In that case, prior to ... talks, I would demand the withdrawal of the missiles or some other way to remove the threat."

The interview in the Daily Yomiuri is here. Ma talks a lot tougher when he is speaking outside Taiwan than in it, so to speak. But remember that the backdrop to Ma's claim that "Taiwan won't negotiate on sovereignty while the missiles still point" is the ongoing private discussions between the CCP and the KMT, presumably on the annexation of Taiwan. In other words, Ma's claim is totally hollow, even more so because of the obvious hedge: "I would demand the withdrawal of the missiles or some other way to remove the threat." A very typical Ma "statement" -- completely qualified, and hollow to the core.

Ma also said he'd accept the pandas from China -- a shame to subsidize China in caring for animals it already has a program to save, when funding for Taiwan's own unique organisms is so limited. Wasteful and stupid.

Is Ma trying to put a spike in the KMT Old Guard by putting limits on the negotiations with China? The accession of Jason Yuan, another Old Guarder, to the position of Taipei's rep in Washington is yet another example of how Ma is simply being sidelined by the powerful elites who want annexation and want it now. It is they who are talking to the Chinese. Not an issue yet is the ROC Constitution, which might complicate annexation, though I suppose it will just be a case of:

Londo Mollari: We have treaties!
Lord Refa: Ink on a page!

[Taiwan]

Adventures in Time

I get many requests from readers, most of which I don't have the time or expertise to fulfill, but one from a certain JDP piqued my interest. He wrote me and told me that in the early 1970s he had rented a house in the alley above, in Taichung, near the airbase (now the airport). From his house he could see Morrison Christian Academy -- in those days the area was almost entirely farms. The US Cold War presence in Taiwan was vast -- in the Vietnam War damaged US aircraft were repaired at the field in Tainan, and there was a major airbase here in Taichung. Many street names in the city preserve that US presence -- the old Frog Mexican Restaurant is on "Huamei" (China-America) street, and nearby is "Meicun" (American Village) street. Taya Street traditionally divided the Americans on one side from the Taiwanese on the other. Much of this history is slowly fading away as individuals pass and older buildings are plowed under.

JDP asked me if I could go and take some pictures of his old house. He told me that his landlord had been from Makung in the Penghu, and he had lived at #50. In the pic above, #50 is now an ugly modern three story tiled concrete pile. As I stopped to take a picture, an older women sitting on a scooter in front demanded to know what I was doing. I explained to her that my uncle had been in the US military here (actually true, I had an uncle in Tainan fixing aircraft in the 1960s) and that he had lived at #50. Was this place still owned by the man from Makung? The old woman snarled at me in a tone that suggested I was a congenital idiot, and told me that the Penghu man owned #44, one of the smaller bungalows in the foreground of the picture.

I rapped on the door of #44 and a pleasant looking woman in her 30s answered. Yes, the Penghu man owned the house, but no, he didn't live here. She explained that she had lived there for more than thirty years, but knew the house had been rented to US servicemen before. She didn't know my friend's name. I thanked her for her trouble, and adventure over, hopped on the scooter and headed home.

[Taiwan]

Hammond-Chambers: Taiwan's Security on Hold

When you listen to US government officials and the punditocracy talk, what you hear is that Taiwan is to blame for dragging its feet on the arms purchases from the US. The island, we're told, isn't serous about its own defense. While it is true that the KMT-dominated legislature has caused grave harm to relations with the US, the US itself is also a problem, as US-Taiwan Business Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers observes in a piece in an Op-Ed in The Hill today (emphasis mine):

At a recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) asked Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte for a status report on arms sales to Taiwan. Mr. Negroponte responded that since Taiwan’s legislature approved substantial defense funding in 2007, the U.S. has not taken steps to advance Taiwan arms sales. He added that prior to moving forward, the U.S. will first “await developments there.”

But when Mr. Negroponte suggested that U.S. arms sales were stalled due to the political transition underway in Taiwan, he neglected to mention that his department is currently sitting on an unprecedented seven Taiwan arms sales notifications (valued at $11 billion) ready for informal review by Congress.

In April 2001, President Bush released a significant package of weapons to Taiwan to aid it in its military modernization efforts. This show of support for Taiwan’s security, consistent with U.S. obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), was welcomed on both sides of the Pacific.

But Taiwan’s then-President Chen Shui-bian miscalculated in his attempts to secure funding for the package, and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) concluded that opposing U.S. weapons purchases would aid its domestic political fortunes. Thus, the long-held security consensus in Taiwan broke down, and the U.S. offer sat dormant for four years. In June and December of 2007, however, the domestic political impasse broke and Taiwan passed funding for all of the items released in 2001.

It is difficult to gauge why the Bush administration is delaying congressional notification on these sales. Perhaps they feel that cross-Strait relations are at a sensitive time and the U.S. should avoid provoking China, or that Taiwan needs to undergo a period of responsible behavior to reestablish trust.

Nevertheless, the United States has an obligation under the TRA to provide Taiwan with articles in support of its national defense, maintaining a balance of power across the Taiwan Strait. Further delays to Taiwan’s military modernization efforts would contribute to the military imbalance, not engender better security.

As Hammond-Chambers observes, China's military strength is rapidly increasing, and Taiwan needs these weapons, especially the F-16s, to maintain a credible deterrent. They would also be a symbol of continuing US support for the island. The Bush Administration is "confused" -- it seems unable to separate its problems with President Chen and the longstanding US commitment to Taiwan, he says. The problem the US has with Taiwan's ability to defend itself was in part created by the US.

UPDATE: As an insightful observer pointed out, if you think about it: doesn't the Bush Administration sitting on 8 Letters constitute a de facto arms freeze to Taiwan? Moreover, the Taiwan Defense Ministry will have to return the funding to the legislature if those programs are not approved by the Bush Administration by the end of the year, resulting in a huge mess over here as Defense and the Legislative Yuan lock horns over what should be approved.

[Taiwan]

Paper on Parade: Pangolin PHVA

Distribution of the seven species of Pangolins of the family Manidae. (source)

One of the most wonderful thrills I've had in Taiwan was walking down to my car one evening from the university when a Formosan Flying Squirrel suddenly floated out of the forest, glided across the road, and then vanished into the trees on the other side. But flying squirrels are not the only unusual mammal Taiwan sports. I was banging around Google Scholar the other day looking for stuff when I stumbled across this final report of the Formosan Pangolin Population and Habitat Viability Assessment. What's a pangolin? Here's an old description from the 1930s....

The Pangolin is not an Armadillo though both, together with Sloths, Ant-eaters, and Ant-bears, belong to the same order. Armadillos are confined to the New World whereas Pangolins are only found in the Old World....

...Chinese species the claws on the fore feet are twice the length of those on the hind feet. The small external ears, the small eyes and the long claws on the fore feet are clearly shown in the photographs on plates 6 and 7. A few other curious features of this most primitive animal might be mentioned. The overlapping scales are formed from hairs glued together, (there are no dermal plates such as underlie the horny scales of the Armadillo,) very much in the same manner as the horn of the Rhinoceros which has no bony core. The adult Pangolin has ho teeth, in consequence it cannot bite or eat hard food, and it has a long extensile tongue which can be protruded for a considerable distance through its small tube-like mouth. The tail is very powerful and to a considerable extent the tip is prehensile; the photographs at the bottom of plate 7, illustrate the tail and shew that the easiest way in which to lift the animal is by this organ. The tail is covered above and below by overlapping scales and may be used for protection for the creature can roll up into a ball covering its face with its tail.

Pangolins (Manis pentadactyla pentadactyla), also known as scaly anteaters, used to be quite common on the island, but like many of the island's animals, they were hunted for their unusual features -- in this case, the scales, and their meat. The picture at left, which I borrowed from TravelTaiwan.com, shows a pangolin from the island. According to the Report, pangolins used to be common here until the beginning of the 20th century, but now sightings are rare. The Report observed:

Little else is known regarding pangolin biology or the status of wild pangolin populations in Taiwan. There is little collaboration among researchers studying Formosan pangolins and no comprehensive management strategy for the species. The Taipei Zoo has cared for many injured or displaced pangolins that have been rescued, and its staff has accumulated some knowledge of pangolin husbandry, but this information has not been widely disseminated. For these reasons, the Taipei Zoo, the Taiwan Forestry Research Institute (TFRI) and the IUCN/SSC Pangolin Specialist Group (PSG) approached the Taiwan Council of Agriculture regarding the need for a population viability assessment and development of a conservation management strategy for the Formosan pangolin.

Pangolin populations are also suffering from decimation of their habitats, like many other Formosan animals. They are threatened by any kind of clearing or construction activity, from road construction to cemeteries. Taiwan's insane land use laws, passed to help the construction and concrete industries, encourage not only overbuilding, but also building on the slope areas where pangolins live. Another issue is the government's habit of concretizing stream beds, which prevents forest animals from accessing them. Because pangolins live at altitudes below 1000m, they are also threatened by feral dogs that humans bring with them into these regions, and the development of orchards, betel nut, and bamboo plantations.

Pangolins are also threatened by smuggling. Although hunting pangolins is illegal, they are still regularly poached in Taiwan. Prior to the termination of legal shipments roughly 1000 skins a month were shipped off the island -- insignificant compared to the CITES indexing of 185,000 pangolin skins traded worldwide between 1980 and 1985 (source). Smuggling also threatens them in another way: pangolins smuggled in as exotic pets are sometimes released on the island, leading to hybridization. This is a common problem wherever exotic pets are smuggled. The World Wildlife Federation notes of pangolin smuggling:

Two out of three Asian species of pangolin are found in Southeast Asia — the Malayan pangolin (Manis javanica) and the Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla). Although these species are some of the most observably traded animals in the region, they are often overshadowed by “poster” species such as elephants or tigers.

Today the Taiwan Forestry Research Institute has a project to tag pangolins in order to track their movements and better understand the habits of this secretive mammal. At present the animal is still distributed throughout most of its original range, according to the Institute, but its numbers have been drastically reduced. Researchers believe that it reproduces only very slowly. Hopefully a way can be found to save this unique animal from the many threats it faces.

[Taiwan]

Daily Links, June 6, 2008

A friend sent me this picture of the Taiwanese-American Memorial Day parade float in front of the White House.

What's parading by on the blogs today?

Lief in Taiwan has a fabulous and beautiful post on a monkey preserve near Tainan.

Fili translates an Israeli tourist pamphlet for Taiwan.

My friend Todd hits one of the best little museums on the island, the quake museum in Wufeng.

A-gu has a short post on the "peace agreement" that Ma seems to be hoping for in Ma I rather than Ma II. He also blogs on our Foreign Ministry's regression thirty years back into the past....inviting foreign dignitaries to visit China. A news article is here.

Blogger Prince Roy leaves the island, in a send off from his good friend Poagao.

Diane Lee's citizenship contradictions are once again explored by The Foreigner. Just this week it came out that the current Foreign Minister once applied for US citizenship because he dreamed of retiring there. That's living the KMT Dream -- exploiting Taiwan's cash with a cushy government job, then retire to the US.

Jerome hands out his post-election awards.

Pinyin News finds a linguistically interesting Burger King ad.

Steven Crook has a fascinating article on the many things he has written over the years and which ones didn't get selected by editors.

Global Voices has a neat article on the Puncar project to bridge the digital divide in Taiwan.

The blog of veterans of the US Taiwan defense command is chock full of old photos and other paraphenalia of the day.

EVENTS: Matthew Lien is being presented by the Taiwan Symphony June 6 and 7. Don't miss Peacefest the weened of 13-15th, see today's Taipei Times for further info. Highway 11, the East Coast expat mag, is out and about for June.

MEDIA: Cindy Sui has one of those "I'll try to be balanced" articles in the Asia Times on the Chen legacy. It's not bad, but to use the absurd allegations that Chen faked his assassination as the opener is unconscionable. No evidence exists to support that charge. It's time the media started asked for evidence before writing down these accusations. The Korea FTA is DOA in Congress, which negates a trade advantage Korea might have had over Taiwan. The CFR reviews another aspect of China's burgeoning global influence with a piece on its relations with the Gulf oil producers. Forbes lists Taiwan's 40 richest. Heads finally rolled in the US Air Force over the debacle in which nuclear fuses were accidentally shipped to Taiwan. Taiwan takes another hit on human trafficking. Ironically, this occurs in a week in which it was revealed that the US operates a secret, illegal and very sick system of prison ships, human trafficking on a global scale. I am ashamed of my nation. Speaking of that national shame in the White House, the Administration is sending sensitive security equipment to China to help with the Olympics. Taiwan's inflation rate now at six month high. Taiwan government launches energy saving drive. Hooray! Looking for a high school science teacher in Taichung.

[Taiwan]

Taiwan's Excellent Relations with Japan

One of the most important DPP foreign policy successes was broadening and deepening Taiwan's relationship with Japan. Jason Miks has a nifty article over at World Politics Review on Taiwan's excellent relations with Japan:

Indeed, while the relationship between China and Taiwan has only very recently begun to warm up, relations between Japan and Taiwan have been growing steadily stronger for years -- especially over the past decade.

Sun points to the policies of former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, who has close personal ties with Japan and who has been a sharp critic of China, as laying much of the groundwork on which Chen worked to press for closer Taiwan-Japan ties. "There's been a deepening and consolidating of Lee's policies," he said.

Prof. Phil Deans of Temple University's Japan Campus in Tokyo agrees that there has been a shift in recent years. "From the late 1990s onwards there was a real ramping up of the relationship," he said.

The closer ties have included increased trade -- in 2006 Japan became Taiwan's second biggest trade partner, while Taiwan was Japan's fourth largest -- as well as a tourist visa waiver program and the signing in May of a new aviation agreement under which the two countries will promote exchanges on aviation safety and cooperate on investigations into airline accidents.

Japan has also offered Taiwan political support, including, despite Chinese opposition, backing Taiwan's so far unsuccessful bids for observer status at the World Health Assembly.

The article is long and good. What will Ma do with this relationship? Ma's increasing deference to China suggests that Taiwan-Japan relations will molder under the new Administration.

[Taiwan] [Japan]

Ma Fluffs it Again

I'm trying to avoid several things with this blog -- I don't want it to become the "What has Ma Fucked Up Today?" blog. Nor do I want it to become the Taiwan Democracy Deathwatch, a four year wake. So please forgive me for being massively busy the last week or so and not blogging so much (expect avalanche tomorrow), and forgive me also for putting up yet another post on Taiwan's Tallest Invertebrate....

This week the anniversary of Tiananmen passed, and President Ma Ying-jeou, well known for critical comments directed at the leadership in Beijing in the best Catholic-criticizing-the-Pope style on this date in other years, was offered another opportunity to say a few words on behalf of democracy in China. But twice in a month Ma declined to affirm key core values in an important speech...instead offering a speech that was servile (or conciliatory, depending on one's point of view) as Lawrence Chung reported in SCMP (paywall, sorry): Ma shifts from condemnation of crackdown to praise for reforms

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has praised the mainland for its reforms, in a shift from his previously harsh condemnation of Beijing over its bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square 19 years ago.

"Mainland China has made certain progress since it started to open up and reform 30 years ago," said Mr Ma in a statement issued yesterday through the Presidential Office website to mark the 19th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown.

Instead of lashing out at the mainland as he did in the past, Mr Ma simply asked Beijing to "continue to promote freedom and democracy" for the sake of the 1.3 billion mainland people and "paving the way for long-term peaceful development of relations across the Taiwan Strait".

He said since the crackdown in 1989, he has either taken part in activities or written articles annually to mark the incident.

He stressed his concern about the incident was due mainly to "my concern over whether our mainland compatriots are able to enjoy a life of freedom and democracy".

Chung pointed out how much things have changed, noting:

In 2006, when he was still Taipei mayor, he said it would be impossible for Taiwan to talk about unification with the mainland if Beijing refused to redeem those killed in the bloody crackdown. In 2005, he said he would not relinquish his anti-Chinese communist stance until Beijing admitted the crackdown was a mistake.

Chung also listed the changes that Ma plans to make:

* Senior officials can visit mainland on case-by-case basis
* Mainland tourists can use credit cards in Taiwan by end of August
* Mainland tourists can convert yuan into new Taiwan dollars by end of next month
* Taiwanese funds to be invested in mainland shares before end of this month and mainland funds to be invested in Taiwanese shares before end of year
* Ban on Xinhua and People's Daily journalists in Taiwan lifted before end of next month
* Policy to establish mutual military trust
* Taiwanese universities may be able to set up branches on mainland and mainland academic qualifications may be recognised
* Island's official title, Republic of China, to be used on stamps from August

Watching Ma toadying up to Beijing like this, I am wondering if eight years of Ma is going to quietly rekindle the debate on whether democracy is possible in a society that imagines itself Chinese -- and how soon those people in Singapore and Hong Kong who fondly imagined that Ma was going to be a voice for Chinese democracy are going to give up that fantasy. One also wonders how soon China is going to start screwing Ma because he is so servile. And when you reflect on Ma's long political career and its almost total lack of stands on principle, as well as the way Ma has always inclined himself toward Power like a plant turning into the sun, well.....

Taiwan News had some tough comments for Ma, especially in that dead-on first paragraph below:

Ma's statement included not a single word of criticism aimed at the leaders of the CCP regime on the PRC's worsening human rights performance, the bloody suppression of "disturbances" in Tibet since mid-March, the tightening restrictions on news freedom and freedom of expression in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics in August or the continued expansion of the deployment of missiles and offensive forces of the People's Liberation Army opposite Taiwan.

It is understandable that the KMT leader might moderate criticism of the authoritarian PRC regime as part of his legitimate efforts to improve cross-strait relations.

However, the "June Fourth" anniversary offered Ma a natural opportunity to reaffirm his core values and even raise new perspectives or concerns to the PRC authorities without especially disturbing the Beijing regime, which is now accustomed to being pilloried on this date.

Moreover, a principled statement by Ma would have indicated to the CCP leaders that progress toward cross-strait peace must be founded on respect for Taiwan's values of democracy, freedom and equity and not simply short-term interests or economic stimulation.

Ma's decision to imitate the late CCP Wang Ming and interpret "united front" as "all alliance and no struggle" will inspire only contempt and no respect in the eyes of the Beijing authorities.

If Ma cannot not even dare to criticize the CCP regime for the Tiananmen Square massacre, how can we expect the "Chinese Taipei" leader to stand up for the national security and collective interests and democratic rights of the 23 million people who elected him on March 22?

The answer is simple. We cannot.

Sadly, the question isn't "Will Ma stand up?" We always knew the answer to that. The question is: "When Ma doesn't stand up, will the people notice?"

I sure hope so.

[Taiwan]

China to Cut Missiles, Let us in WHO?

Ralph Jennings of Reuters is reporting that a Chinese Nationalist Party claimed that China had promised to stop its missile build up and then to reduce the number of missiles facing Taiwan:

Last week, when KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung visited senior leaders in Beijing, including President Hu Jintao, he asked about the missiles and was told China would stop deploying them ahead of a gradual reduction, a party spokeswoman and local media said.

"It was a friendly reaction," said spokeswoman Chen Shu-jung. China did not set a timeline or estimate how many missiles might be removed. "They haven't done anything yet to follow up."

A reduction of missiles would cool a potential Asia-Pacific flashpoint and please the United States, which wants good relations with both sides and favours the status quo.

Right. So the news, which I found on the WaPo blog of Beijing reporter John Pomfret, also states that:

In another sign of improved relations, Chinese officials also want Taiwan to offer a proposal on its bid to participate in the World Health Organisation, according to local news reports.

Last week Chinese President Hu Jintao mentioned giving diplomatically isolated Taiwan more international space.

Some reality here: even if China slashes the missiles by half, that will merely return us to the position of the year 2000, when China had 600 or 700 missiles facing us -- and they will be much better missiles. Despite overwrought claims, the missiles can hardly destroy the island, but they are an important symbol of China's ultimate intentions. More deadly by far are the hundreds of aircraft facing Taiwan, and the military modernization program. I'd like to see the military threat actually terminated, not mere cosmetic changes in the number of missiles (which can easily be increased at any time simply by returning removed missiles to their sites). In any case, the savings on missiles will simply be invested in some other military threat.

Of course, this comes from a KMT party source, so we need to wait for more reliable source to confirm.

As for WHO entry, it would seem incredible if it granted Taiwan any degree of autonomy. Remember the cowardly and illegal secret MOU that the WHO signed with the PRC about Taiwan (from here):

In the course of our research on these areas outside the global surveillance system we obtained a copy of a memorandum of understanding between the WHO and the PRC that set out the circumstances in which contact with Taiwan could take place. While it was an honest attempt by the WHO to make things work, the guidance was totally inappropriate for dealing with an emergency. Permission had to be sought from the Chinese contact point in Geneva 5 weeks in advance of making contact. The PRC contact point could decide which Taiwanese experts should be contacted. If Taiwanese experts were invited to technical meetings an expert of similar status should be included. Taiwanese citizens were not permitted to attend WHO meetings as members of NGO delegations. Most bizarrely, because writing “Taiwan” on an envelope (necessary if it was to reach its destination) would imply recognition of its independence in the view of the PRC, all paper communications had to be faxed.

That's our future in the WHO under the benevolence of China. And what name shall we join under?

[Taiwan]

Is Ma a puppet?

The old Japanese agricultural research station in Tainan, in use until recently.

There's nothing like the yawning political abyss that the KMT is dropping Taiwan into accompanied by gray skies and the pitt-pitt-pitt of steadily falling rain every day. It's more demoralizing than being called stupid by Sharon Stone.

The Taipei Times had an excellent editorial today about the ridiculous comments of Wu Po-hsiung and the increasing perception that the party-to-party negotiations between the two Leninist Chinese parties over the fate of Taiwan have made a puppet of newly-minted President Ma Ying-jeou:

As the Democratic Progressive Party has rightly pointed out, the KMT has shown impatience in starting negotiations with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and done so in a manner that could compromise this country’s sovereignty. The lack of accountability inherent in party-to-party talks, furthermore, threatens to bypass the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), lending credence to fears that real diplomatic work will be conducted in backrooms by individuals who were not democratically elected into office — a system with which Beijing is, by design, fully comfortable, but one that does not represent how a democratic country should conduct diplomacy.

Wu’s optimism about a possible reduction in missiles, meanwhile, is gullibility at its most extreme. For one, even if China were to dismantle or redirect some of its missiles, the fact remains that hundreds would still be aimed this way. One missile — and the threat to use it — is one too many. Furthermore, quantitative cuts mean very little when they could easily be offset by the increasing precision of those still active. In other words, as long as the intent to use missiles against Taiwan exists, talk of cuts is meaningless.

A few years ago, during the KMT Chairmanship election, veteran Taiwan watcher Lawrence Eyton opined:

Ma was widely touted by the media as the favorite, but he was certainly a very odd favorite. When the vote took place, three quarters of the party's legislators, many high-level party officials such as central executive committee head Chang Che-shen and more than 100 retired generals - the KMT is traditionally strong in the military - had thrown their support behind Wang.

Ma may be popular with the locals, but party elites detest him. Now it looks like the Old Guard is simply going to bypass him, leaving Ma to take the hit. Or win the Nobel Peace Prize, as a scholar suggested a few days ago.

Strange to think about it. Voters declined twice, in 2000 and in 2004, to award the Presidency to Lien Chan, Honorary Chairman of the KMT and probably the one calling the shots behind the scene (although there are some net-rumors that Wu is trying to carve out a position for himself as puppeteer to the President along with other KMT heavyweights). To the extent that voters approved of the KMT ticket in 2004, it was more likely support for the able and popular James Soong, the wily populist Caesar to Lien Chan's inestimably wealthy Crassus. The irony is that having twice declined to give the crown to Lien, they have nevertheless handed him the keys to the kingdom by putting the weak Ma in power with a KMT legislature at his back.

And the US thinks cross-strait relations are moving in the right direction. I think I'll go outside now and contemplate the angry gray skies...

[Taiwan]

Book Review: Humanity at Stake

Humanity at Stake
Abraham Young
2008. Published in the United States by CreateSpace and distributed by Amazon. 130 pp. Website: HumanityAtStake.com

A few weeks ago I was in class at NCKU when a young woman walked in. Although the room seats 40 there are only seven of us in the class, but after inspecting the roomful of empty seats she strolled over and took the seat next to me. Thinking she wanted to talk, I leaned over, and a moment's conversation led to the discovery that she was an exchange student from Shanghai. I immediately invited her to lunch. We spent the next couple of hours in a local lunch box joint, discussing Tibet and Taiwan in Mandarin at her insistence, with her raising the by-now drearily familiar arguments. The conversation was not quiet, though we did not raise our voices, and it was obvious to me that many of the locals were silently listening in. After we stepped out of the diner, the young woman ran off to buy a drink and an older Taiwanese woman who had been sitting at the table next to us walked over to me. "Thank you," she said, as she struggled to free her bicycle from the horde of bikes parked for the lunch rush. Looking down the road, where the Chinese woman was buying tea, she spat out: "Those Chinese are so arrogant!" All I could think was: well, maybe you should have told her that yourself.

Fortunately for Taiwan, Taiwanese-Americans have long been speakers on the island's behalf, and this new book is the latest offering in that five-decade long effort to give an international voice to the island. From its unusually long subtitle to its promise on the back cover to donate $1 to Human Rights Watch for every copy sold, Abraham Young's Humanity at Stake: On why the world should now end China’s military & political aggression, understand Taiwan’s democracy, and defend 23 million citizens’ human right to self-determination represents a unique approach to educating novice readers on the various points of view in the Taiwan issue, and on why supporting Taiwan is so important. Its appearance is all the more timely given the recent political developments in cross-strait issues.

Young's book is a description of a dialogue between a relatively educated young American who knows a smattering about Taiwan, a young Chinese man, and an American of Taiwanese descent, told from the point of view of the last. As he describes them:

Here’s the kid from Taiwan, here’s the kid from China, and on the third side of this square table there’s the Mr.-All-American pilot, who is intelligent, friendly, has real knowledge of the world, has visited and pondered the cities of China, and though never visited Taiwan, has engaged in U.S. military to deal with the important dilemmas of international relations, overseas.

We have everything we need here for a real simulation—a so-called Strait-talk —with the exclusion of military arms to play offense, defense, and deterrent.

The three then go on to discuss the various arguments. The book is divided into two basic parts -- one explaining the past, and one staking out options for the future. Readers who have been around pro-China trolls or been on discussion forums will recognize the arguments used by the Chinese and the disparaging commentary in the international media: that Taiwan is like a Hawaii, or that Taiwan's democracy is "corrupt" or that Taiwan's leaders "overreact." The reality, as Young shows in the second half of the book, is that there is no credible argument for annexing the island to China. There is nothing that China cannot get from Taiwan as a free and independent state, except, of course, the satisfaction of ownership.

In addition to the dialogue, Young presents his interior monologue, displaying many of the same reactions all of us go through when confronting the combination of ignorance and aggression that represents the PRC point of view. This helps draw the reader in to Young's point of view and make the work more interesting. An additional positive feature of the work is that Young does not turn his Chinese interlocutor into a caricature of the bombastic, violent Chinese trolls everyone on the net is familiar with, but presents him as a sympathetic and intelligent human being.

The book contains extensive, even elaborate footnotes that provide further background to the points Young makes in his responses. These usually have internet sources, enabling the reader to easily explore the issues in greater depth. Contemporary issues, such as the WHO exclusion, also make an appearance. A typical discussion reads:

However, this last point does not even need to be made to Wang and Chris, as their silence, their silence at the painful reality of 1,200-plus Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan shows that there is no single argument—moral, logical, or just—that validates China’s past and present military aggression and missile arsenal, much less the continued growth on both menacing counts, which has been clearly the case.

Not just in reference to the basement where Wang, Chris, and I now stand, the real elephant in the room is this: not a single person, up through the highest levels of government, within China, the US, or Taiwan is capable of providing a single validating argument for this.

For readers who are unfamiliar with the Taiwan issue Humanity at Stake is an extremely readable introduction to the issues, packed with useful information. I look forward to the next edition, when the whole work is translated into Chinese using simplified characters. If Taiwanese really want to preserve their freedom, they need to start talking to the Chinese.

[Taiwan]

Book Review: Taiwan: the Search for Identity

Taiwan: The Search for Identity
Jerome Keating
2008. Taipei: SMC Publishing, 118 pp.

Jerome Keating has finished another in his series of books on Taiwan's history and political culture. With Taiwan: The Search for Identity, Keating offers a work done in his usual hard-hitting style, but with the added advantage of text in both English and Chinese. Most of the material in this book is either taken from, or similar to, material on Keating's website.

The slim (118 pages) volume's theme is the construction of identity in Taiwan's history, and the recent changes in electoral politics. The style is brisk and informal, offering articles with titles like "Finding Identity and Purpose Amidst Bamboozle." In addition to history, several articles deal with the problems stemming from the legislative election defeat of the DPP, as well as the then-upcoming Presidential election.

One advantage of this work is its bilingual format, useful not just to local readers, but also to those from China, a population that Taiwan needs to begin talking to if it is ever to achieve its independence. The book may also serve as a useful introduction for English readers unfamiliar with Taiwan's modern political economy.

[Taiwan]