tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post795293291662476947..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Ma continues to backpedal on Peace TreatyMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-2239587070907772572011-10-27T00:27:36.069+08:002011-10-27T00:27:36.069+08:00I hope that voters in Taiwan have grown to have be...I hope that voters in Taiwan have grown to have better judgement than the past elections regardless whom might win. I think the news media is really not educated enough to talk about economics. A relative of mine had worked for an English media in Taiwan specializing in economy. Hear some very ridiculous stories. Pity, because the media needs stories that attract attention of readers to sell.<br /><br />GeorgeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-6923018883564303282011-10-27T00:13:13.002+08:002011-10-27T00:13:13.002+08:00off the topic - i heard that 'taiwan hand / fr...off the topic - i heard that 'taiwan hand / friend' michael swaine is supposed to visit the island next week. <br />i wonder what he will be writing and advising after the visit ...richardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-20267578166652271722011-10-26T21:04:38.876+08:002011-10-26T21:04:38.876+08:00Can't believe the term '1992 consensus'...Can't believe the term '1992 consensus' is being bandied about like it means anything. Everyone knows this was pure fiction. 'One China based on 1992 consensus' actually mean 'One China on Beijing's terms'. No wiggle room, no space for interpretation. Beijing is never going to step back from this and everyone knows it.lesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-36650151059201119862011-10-26T19:13:03.181+08:002011-10-26T19:13:03.181+08:00It's important that the DPP not bang on about ...It's important that the DPP not bang on about this too much to the point they ignore other issues. They need to emphasise what they would do for job creation and the income gap. Of course they shouldn't let Ma sweep what he said under the carpet if he regrets raising it, but their position on China should be part of a wide-ranging and well-rounded manifesto.Rajnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-43056481554269338232011-10-26T12:32:29.488+08:002011-10-26T12:32:29.488+08:00"When the frogs finally comes out of the well...<b>"When the frogs finally comes out of the well, they may truly be amazed."</b><br /><br />A while ago, China canceled their selection of the second Confucius Peace Price winner. They gave a reason that the selection process is unfair. <br /><br />But, who knows? Maybe China canceled it because Ma wasn't on the list. Maybe China uses that as a bargain chip to "tease" Ma to come up with the peace agreement plan. I won't be surprised if China resumes it with Ma as the winner (not just a candidate). The award will be announced in December, one month before the election. <br /><br />And how about the Nobel Peace prize ?Taiwan Echohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17018124148446093746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-44482055062546143932011-10-26T12:16:40.031+08:002011-10-26T12:16:40.031+08:00new issues which is what people like would come la...<b>new issues which is what people like would come later in a more positive manner to build up the momentum. I kind of have a feeling how things are building up, but I hate to pull the rabbit out of the hat prematurely.</b><br /><br />I believe Ma's intention is to manipulate the president election as a form of people's consent to his peace agreement plan -- if he gets elected. <br /><br />He has played this before. When he got elected in 2008, majority of the international news took it as that Taiwanese approved Ma's pro-China politically. In fact, Ma had to chant "I am a Taiwanese to the bone" during the campaign. That is, Ma got elected because of other factors, not because of Ma's unification feature. <br /><br />Now we are going to repeat that history - even if the peace agreement is damaging his campaign, he will (and the international media will help to) twist it into that people approve of his peace agreement. <br /><br />But he has to make sure he got elected first.Taiwan Echohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17018124148446093746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-2080208188016217392011-10-26T12:03:43.798+08:002011-10-26T12:03:43.798+08:00Throw in couple of my points:
1. In national elec...Throw in couple of my points:<br /><br />1. In national elections in Taiwan, showing signs of leaning to China is a suicidal move. It has been like that in previous elections, and is more so when the rise of Taiwanese conscientiousness is historical high during Ma's 3 year administration;<br /><br />2. Because of this trend, even Ma Ying-jeou had to chant that he was a Taiwanese during the campaign back in 2008;<br /><br />3. Now, with polls showing that people identifying themselves as pure Chinese is less than 4% of the population, Ma's moves using China rushes (including 1992 consensus, now the peace agreement) as the campaign strategy is completely out of touch of the reality -- something must be happening behind the scene to force him to conduct such a bold move. <br /><br />4. Regarding his "no unification" talk, he has repeatedly elaborated it with emphasis that it means "no talk" of unification. He never said he won't do it. Thus, "no unification" has to be seen as "I will just do it and not talk about it," otherwise he could have just left "no unification" without adding any explanation.Taiwan Echohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17018124148446093746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-70182701061563458352011-10-26T09:42:13.746+08:002011-10-26T09:42:13.746+08:00The fine difference is crucial, I understand. But ...The fine difference is crucial, I understand. But I'm focusing here on the immediate effect on the election. <br /><br />Long-term, though, some kind of accommodation will have to be reached. At this point don't see how it can without a war.Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-31550743284138376622011-10-26T06:45:38.851+08:002011-10-26T06:45:38.851+08:00Regarding the title "Ma continues to backpeda...Regarding the title "Ma continues to backpedal on Peace Treaty":<br /><br /><br />Ma has never talked about a "peace treaty" ("和平條約") between Taiwan and China. <br /><br />The term that Ma (and China) uses is "和平協議", which is either a "peace accord" or a "peace agreement".<br /><br />A "和平協議" can be one that officially mark the end of a civil war; this is what, I believe, is in Ma's plan. <br /><br />A treaty ("條約") is only signed between two sovereign entities that is governed by international laws. Ma (and China) never used this term for a Taiwan-China arrangement.<br /><br />The fine difference is extremely important to the Chinese (including Ma, of course.)SYnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-75301091325760096252011-10-26T00:48:00.541+08:002011-10-26T00:48:00.541+08:00I still think you're misreading Ma's strat...I still think you're misreading Ma's strategy. I mean, maybe it's a misstep, but given that he's not a total idiot (...), maybe there's some reason to it. To wit:<br /><br />1. Ma really believes in pursuing this. It's his ideal and he wants to sell his ideal to the electorate.<br /><br />2. The "ten guarantees" (couldn't have been 9, could it) may be "backpedaling", or may be what he had in mind all along: something that doesn't cross any of China's red lines but still demands some things China is not usually considered amenable to. So that puts Beijing on notice, makes him look tough on China at home (not to you, but it seems others might see it that way), and it sets him up to be ok if talks fail and golden if they produce something. An agreement including his "Three No's" would be quite a coup.<br /><br />3. Draw the DPP out into cross-strait relation territory. People in Taiwan don't want "unification", but that doesn't mean they want apoplectic reactions to the idea of peace talks either. Get the emotions going and show yourself as the cool steady hand at the helm.<br /><br />And are you sure the referendum issue plays in DPP's favor? Could it be Ma's bet that the electorate will not say (out loud or silently) "Yes, I want my say at the polls on anything like this" but rather "Actually, I'd rather just have my elected representatives deal with this"? I don't know, but the referendum issue always has a kind of sideshow look to it.<br /><br />And you got the carrot but not the stick -- you didn't mention Leon's editorial in the Japanese newspapers. That was fairly blunt, wasn't it? Elsewhere, I saw Rick Perry mention Taiwan directly as a foreign policy interest. At least the Republicans are good for something. <br /><br />But the "Ten Guarantees" is pretty funny. I think he should try a peace treaty with the mosquitoes first.Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-28385972173764920362011-10-26T00:30:18.670+08:002011-10-26T00:30:18.670+08:00I personally don't see any problem with issues...I personally don't see any problem with issues surrounding so called piece talks. Certainly getting the controversial issues out on the table is the correct way to go. Since "peace treaty" means different things in different peoples minds, new issues which is what people like would come later in a more positive manner to build up the momentum. I kind of have a feeling how things are building up, but I hate to pull the rabbit out of the hat prematurely.<br /><br />When the frogs finally comes out of the well, they may truly be amazed. You might want to ignore my comments since I just finished watching the Steve Jobs story on TV, so I definitely feel optimistic and realistic.<br /><br /><br />GeorgeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-29357888967653525142011-10-25T22:07:52.307+08:002011-10-25T22:07:52.307+08:00These zongtongs are mere Pu Yis.
Always keep in mi...These zongtongs are mere Pu Yis.<br />Always keep in mind who put the first zongtong in charge of US-occupied Japanese Taiwan.jeromenoreply@blogger.com