tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post6852016832338058884..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Misreading the lessons of the Great BlackoutMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-67924910557714279852017-09-02T00:15:34.329+08:002017-09-02T00:15:34.329+08:00There are all kinds of problems with Taipower and ...There are all kinds of problems with Taipower and the government is right to have considered breaking up the company with a view to privatization of electricity generation. What the blackout reveals though, is that the operating reserve is insufficient and must be raised by having additional large scale and reliable sources of electricity generation, which with apologies to the greenies, basically means more gas-powered generators like those at Datan. There are too many technical issues with renewables and the continued need for subsidies means they are basically just pork for would-be foreign investors. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-42162303848754245152017-08-30T00:54:10.191+08:002017-08-30T00:54:10.191+08:00Michael,
You are more or less on the money with r...Michael,<br /><br />You are more or less on the money with regard to the bone-headed reaction to the Taiwan power crisis so far. <br /><br />I absolutely agree with your final point: "The real and only answer to Taiwan's power problems is massive and urgent investment in conservation and renewables. Now."<br /><br />In fact, as a foreign solar power investor and as an academic, I have made this point directly to the Taiwan government on numerous occasions. <br /><br />The most memorable was in a meeting 6 months ago with one of the most senior cabinet officials involved with the power sector: I pointed out the obvious conflicts of interest of Taipower vis a vis nuclear, the current absence of preparedness or alternatives, and emphasized that Taiwan was facing a power crisis NOW and needed to act urgently on accelerating power sector policy with more of a sense of crisis. <br /><br />His answer was "Crisis? No crisis. The new LNG terminal should be completed in time to prevent any power shortages."<br /><br />I was flabbergasted. This was an intelligent and thoughtful man, a PhD like me, so he certainly should have the capacity to understand the absurd risk of staking the country's power stability on a bet on one mid-construction LNG terminal. I warned him that (a) construction is fraught with risk so (b) he should be looking to massively accelerate investment - whether public or private - into alternative energy generation assets to bolster Taiwan's options and avert a power crisis. <br /><br />But no. He insisted that (a) there is not, and will not be, a power crisis; (b) LNG will fill in any and all power supply gaps because of the completion of the new terminal; (c) a cave-in by the government on nuclear power is absolutely out of the question; (d) the pace alternative energy investments is still slow and insignificant in scale, but he believes it will grow. <br /><br />I noted, from a private sector investor perspective, that the incentives and risk / return for (d) are out of sync currently. There is a huge pool of expert foreign and domestic capital prepared to participate, but the foreign portion of it at least will not touch Taiwan green energy investments unless the profit margins are sufficiently attractive to offset the risks of Taiwan's unclear and fragmented energy regulatory environment and a hostile and politically powerful state-owned incumbent (Taipower).<br /><br />We ended up agreeing to revisit status later this year, to see if any of my predictions had panned out and to consider whether he should consider adjusting policy accordingly. <br /><br />Lo and behold, the LNG terminal is behind schedule. The power crisis is already upon us. No significant green energy investments have occurred, with only a handful of insignificant showcase distractions of 0.5MW here and there. And the government is clearly starting to cave in on its no-nuclear stance already. <br /><br />I think part of the administration's problems, at least in this cabinet member's case, is there are a lot well-intended and intelligent academics in the cabinet but they lack an understanding of the real world and don't have a sufficiently action-oriented style. They are neither politicians nor businessmen, nor even fully bureaucrats; instead they are often academics coming to these issues for the first time. I think they have a chance of understanding but they need to hurry the hell up. <br /><br />At the same time, the quality of public debate domestically in Taiwan on this issue is very poor. It's frustrating to watch and rife with stupid contradictions and disingenuous conflicts of interest. <br /><br />Despite all this, I am still guardedly hopeful that the Tsai administration will eventually see the light. They pushed through pension reform; power sector reform is in the same ballpark of strategic, financial, and economic importance for Taiwan's present and future.<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com