tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post5652811964047822628..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Longtime Blue on why he's supporting TsaiMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-52888090701143301392012-01-13T17:05:26.642+08:002012-01-13T17:05:26.642+08:00I know that, I was merely pointing out that your p...I know that, I was merely pointing out that your presentation erred on the facts. Especially when you accuse the other side of fearmongering. <br /><br />Having read much history (think how many major events of the last X number of years have been completely missed by US intelligence)(think how many totally obvious and much warned events were ignored) I am less sanguine than you.Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-71592936112630565182012-01-13T15:55:33.372+08:002012-01-13T15:55:33.372+08:00@ Michael :
Drills are announced in advance, and...@ Michael : <br /><br />Drills are announced in advance, and big onces take months to prepare, if we see them make the preparations but don't announce , it would already be a huge alarm. the reason that the 96 crisis prompted the 7th fleet to move in was percisely because the drills announced was in the danger zone of where it is at least concievablly possible to turn and just shoot for Taiwan (or at lest the out lying islands.)<br /><br />The end conclusion is that , no matter how they play it , the political risk for the PRC would be massive, so unless Taiwan or the US really force their hand the odds of a rational actor (and the PRC is certaily far more rational than say.. Iran or North Korea) testing his luck is low.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-86900226664019666972012-01-13T15:04:03.918+08:002012-01-13T15:04:03.918+08:00As for Chinese amphibious forces and capabilities,...As for Chinese amphibious forces and capabilities, there are numerous articles. <a href="http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=36770&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=25&cHash=5c40a5009d" rel="nofollow">Jamestown Brief</a>: <br /><br />"Amphibious training has become more prominent, larger and routine. Designated amphibious units receive priority for annual maritime training, but also conduct training for other missions. Other maneuver and support units from the Nanjing and Guangzhou MRs undertake amphibious training to a lesser extent, as do some units from the Jinan and Shenyang MRs. Over the past decade, roughly 25 infantry and armored divisions and brigades, amounting to one-quarter to one-third of the total ground force, have conducted some type of amphibious training [3]. The size and number of exercises per year varies, with a peak in 2001 when nearly 100,000 Army, Navy and Air Force personnel participated in a drill at Dongshan Island at the southern tip of Fujian province (China Daily, July 12, 2004)."Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-80533200068191627922012-01-13T14:50:39.975+08:002012-01-13T14:50:39.975+08:00""It doesnt' take a military expert ...""It doesnt' take a military expert to realize that even if they can landing all of the marines they're not going to take over Taiwan with roughly 10,000 men, let alone do it quickly. """"<br /><br />I love this kind of [whew] calculation. Thank god we don't have to think about the myriad possible alternatives -- like following the marine bridgehead with regular Army brought in by air and sea, which is the actual practice of previous powers conducting amphibious invasions. <br /><br />Of course, there are many other scenarios. <br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-73244190964956276772012-01-13T14:35:41.565+08:002012-01-13T14:35:41.565+08:00@ other annoymonous:
From a military POV or polit...@ other annoymonous:<br /><br />From a military POV or political POV? those are different questions though ultimately related of course, the simple answer is that for the PRC to take Taiwan, the key would be to really totally isolate Taiwan internationally, if the US openly state they'll not interfer for example. in such a situation they don't even need missile or troops, they can simply impose North Korean level sanctions on Taiwan through the UN. <br /><br />From my POV anyway, at the end of the day what Taiwan needs to do is to avoid becomming such a pain in the neck that the US feel they're better off letting China slip through the first island chain than worth going to war with China over a pawn that creates more trouble than it's worth. Improving ties / trade with China doesn't change this situation a whole lot unless we actually get to the point where there are serious political unification talks, which unless the New Party somehow wins the Presidency or something isn't likely to happen within DECADES.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-81420772625930496362012-01-13T13:42:58.885+08:002012-01-13T13:42:58.885+08:00The threat is there no matter who the president is...The threat is there no matter who the president is. Isn't is more difficult for China to threaten Taiwan if Tsai gets elected?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-39777202880860404682012-01-13T11:40:25.702+08:002012-01-13T11:40:25.702+08:00paul:
Nan simply consistently supports the opposi...paul:<br /><br />Nan simply consistently supports the opposition, which happens to be green right now. he has been criticizing Ma for some time now, that is nothing new, most of the so called "pro blue" news paper and columnest / editorials have criticized the KMT government a good deal over the last few years (or even when they were the opposition) as well, unless your reading the KMT's own 中央日報 of course, but that paper has almost no market anymore. <br /><br />As for China's threat, from a military POV the real threat is far less than the perception, or at least the real threat is not in what you think it is, losing American support would be the real threat, military attacks from China is much less so.<br /><br />China 's capacity to attack Taiwan on a whim is extremly limited, most of the so called 2000 missile is not actually stationed within range on a normal basis (the tally is those that are theoretically capable of hitting some point in taiwan from some point in China within the SE theater, the onces that can launch to Taiwan on a few hours' notice (mostly the DF-15 series which is actually designed moer to be used a nukes than SRBM) is more like 1/5 of that number at best, and even then you can only launch a fraction of those at a time due to restriction of lauchers. unless they choose to use nuclear warheads (which is too crazy even for China) that is not nearly enough to cause large damage . <br /><br />perhaps even more important is the simple fact that China's marine TOTAL 12,000 men, most of them are stationed in Zhejian which if they were to sail to Taiwan still would take over a day at best. and if they all sail out at the same time it would alerady ring up alarm bells from Taipei to Washington before they even left port.<br /><br />It doesnt' take a military expert to realize that even if they can landing all of the marines they're not going to take over Taiwan with roughly 10,000 men, let alone do it quickly. <br /><br />So what if they're going to do a D-day style landing you ask? at that point they would be able to land many more men yes, and probably relocate enough missiles to the point where they can really pose a serious threat, but the problem is that D-day took 6 month to prepare, and an full invasion of Taiwan is likely to take even longer, by then they would not only have to face a totally mobilized taiwan but the US would have more than enough time to move several more fleet and probably even put boots onto taiwan itself and/or life in a lot more additional weapons (like they did in the 823 Artillery war)<br /><br />In short, from what we know of China's military setup in the region, they're hardly aligned in a fashion that suggest they want to attack Taiwan anytime soon, they are in fact aligned in a matter that is to prevent of an event where someone attack that region .<br /><br />To summerize, China's actual military threat in the current phase, assuming that the USA is not going to back down from a full confrontation (which is certainly a question but not one that we can influence too much on our own) is much much less than percieved. There's a significant fear monger aspect there as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-51905759828418706722012-01-13T08:23:56.255+08:002012-01-13T08:23:56.255+08:00thats a good editorial written by Nan-fang-suo. it...thats a good editorial written by Nan-fang-suo. its cool to see a pro-blue change to pro-green, at least for this election. <br /><br />but i wonder why he does not think there is a legitimate threat from china against taiwan? as if china's 2000+ missiles pointing at taiwan, their rapidly modernizing military and huge and ever-increasing military budgets, and china's suppression of taiwan on the international stage and outright public threats to take taiwan back with military force isnt suffice??paulnoreply@blogger.com