tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post4155230213222111843..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: ECFA and IndependenceMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-8703568408241276162011-03-25T00:17:37.282+08:002011-03-25T00:17:37.282+08:00you say "It seems like ECFA is something that...you say "It seems like ECFA is something that once in, you can't get out, at least in the government planning view." But how about the termination clause (Article 16 of ECFA): where either China or Taiwan can notify the other of termination of the ECFA which takes effect 180 days later.<br /><br />http://www.bilaterals.org/spip.php?article18166Shiwee thoughtshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03783653758022121703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-6954677998255876682011-02-04T14:15:51.734+08:002011-02-04T14:15:51.734+08:00@Marc A quick glance at wikipedia shows that "...@Marc A quick glance at wikipedia shows that "status quo" means "the current state" which is easily translated to Mandarin.blobOfNeuronsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-69997325211063863362011-02-04T13:16:33.857+08:002011-02-04T13:16:33.857+08:00Anon,
You have some points right, but it's a ...Anon,<br /><br />You have some points right, but it's a lot more complex I think. For example, energy is not the only problem. Taiwan needs to import metal ore, beef, oil (not for energy, but for plastic), machinery, weapons, commercial/agriculture vehicle engines and even people (experts in industries)...and loads of other stuff which Taiwan cannot make or has no resource of making. In order to have those, without large domestic market and natural resource, Taiwan can only export in exchange for the import.<br /><br />For China, yes, a lot is just assembly, but there are also other stuff. For some industry, the entire value chain has been pulled into China. Taiwan's FDI into China is huge, in real term and in % term. It's really scary. Taiwanese companies export does not just go to the US, but also Europe, Japan, SE Asia and China. But of course the US is the largest export destination simply because it currently has the largest market. Either way, Taiwan has to diversify its export (both in scope and depth). Without that, more domestic consumption does not really help in terms of depedency.Dixteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05689510846926854542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-171102366879162332011-02-04T08:34:55.893+08:002011-02-04T08:34:55.893+08:00Marc: 現狀 => status quoMarc: 現狀 => status quoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-25888333445190297792011-02-04T04:49:37.402+08:002011-02-04T04:49:37.402+08:00That's just the economy though. They can shore...That's just the economy though. They can shore up their purchasing power and improve living standards by putting more renewable energy online (sourced from themselves) instead of paying through the nose for power.<br /><br />Likewise Taiwan is far more US dependent than China dependent. It may seem like they are because they export parts to China, but they are simply being reassembled and shipped back out. <br /><br />Taiwan needs China as a hub, but in terms of actually landing finished products there they are underperforming severely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-86757743476100116972011-02-03T15:41:30.674+08:002011-02-03T15:41:30.674+08:00Taiwan will most likely always be an export orient...Taiwan will most likely always be an export oriented country if it wants to maintane or improve the current standard of living, because its domestic market is small and it has no natural resources. Taiwan's situation is not like Japan/US (large domestic market) or Canada (natural resources) etc.<br /><br />Therefore, no matter how hard they concentrate on domestic market, if the export market is not diversified (currently extremely China heavy), Taiwan will remain in danger. I also worried about their strategy on focusing on service sector. A lot of times when the government tries to direct the economy heavy hendily (like trying to direct resource into a sector) it ends up in failure. <br /><br />They also need to define what type of service sector. If Taiwan can combine its technology, manufacturing know-how with service, then great. But if they are thinking of doing it like Hong Kong or other South East Asian country, then they might be heading in the wrong direction.Dixteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05689510846926854542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-65607269818266914902011-02-03T02:28:22.752+08:002011-02-03T02:28:22.752+08:00So you think it's bad that the KMT is moving T...So you think it's bad that the KMT is moving Taiwan towards true independence (more domestic consumption and investment into local economy) because it would reduce dependence on the US.<br /><br />To the DPP, caterwauling about independence is more important than actually having it. It's so much more glamorous!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-66858097201323464612011-02-03T00:31:30.100+08:002011-02-03T00:31:30.100+08:00All my professional Taiwanese friends and contacts...All my professional Taiwanese friends and contacts don't know the term "status quo". How is this Latin phrase said in Mandarin?Marcnoreply@blogger.com