tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post4031782847869572310..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Fourth Round of ECFA Talks PostponedMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-26756327476148265142009-11-06T20:47:47.937+08:002009-11-06T20:47:47.937+08:00"Tell that to the European countries who are ...<b>"Tell that to the European countries who are waiting for it."</b><br /><br />Anon, you've given no evidence for your assertions. Put up or shutup. The EU and the US have all said that they will only <i>consider</i> negotiations for FTAs. That's pretty weak for something that supposedly will benefit both sides. Where is the down side to signing an FTA with Taiwan <i>now</i>? You can't name any, but you will keep running your blind ideological mouth.<br /><br />Economists have long concluded that FTAs or opening to any kind of trade are not the clear win-win situation that everyone once thought they were. Sure, being Cuba is going to hold back development, but for everything in between, the benefits aren't clear, esp with developed nation agricultural subsidies, among other real world problems.<br /><br />This week, several pro-Blue economists, including one that took a big position in China, have thrown sand in the face of Ma Ying-jeou and said among other things, that Taiwan 1) must first reach a consensus before signing and 2) should not rush to sign ECFA.<br /><br />Taiwan is highly connected to the rest of the world. It is more closely connected with China than it has ever been before, and more so than most nations due to geographic and cultural proximity. But it hasn't saved Taiwan's economy from this downturn, and the blue collar class has been in the shit-hole since the late 90s. What, pray tell me, specifically about moving even faster towards integration with China, will make Taiwan's economy magically better, especially for blue collar and corporate drones?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-26385644984972956272009-11-06T07:53:52.213+08:002009-11-06T07:53:52.213+08:00"@anon 7:17 - Hard to name a specific example...<b>"@anon 7:17 - Hard to name a specific example considering it hasn't been signed, and hasn't happened yet."<br /><br />If no one knows what's supposed to happen, then why is it a prerequisite for signing an FTA with the EU? That makes no sense.</b><br /><br /><br />Tell that to the European countries who are waiting for it.<br /><br />It seems to me that if Taiwan wants to remain a viable, independant nation then signing ECFA is a must. Without it, the global economy will increasingly bypass TW, the standard of living will drop and there'll be nothing to stop China taking over. It's ironic that the anti-KMT crowd's actions may well serve to make it more likely that TW gets annexed, not the other way round.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-34554710019758540592009-11-05T11:56:05.453+08:002009-11-05T11:56:05.453+08:00"@anon 7:17 - Hard to name a specific example...<b>"@anon 7:17 - Hard to name a specific example considering it hasn't been signed, and hasn't happened yet."</b><br /><br />If no one knows what's supposed to happen, then why is it a prerequisite for signing an FTA with the EU? That makes no sense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-78960878258615815892009-11-05T07:58:01.936+08:002009-11-05T07:58:01.936+08:00I heard privately that officials are saying to wel...<i>I heard privately that officials are saying to well connected visitors that ECFA is not an FTA. </i><br /><br />But are they just saying that? China is supposed to be insisting that FTAs are between countries so Taiwan can't sign one.<br /><br />Is the ECFA a (limited) FTA in substance called by another name? Or is it something else entirely?Michael Faheyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11057491107522344042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-7882481108545688322009-11-04T13:58:44.146+08:002009-11-04T13:58:44.146+08:00@anon 7:17 - Hard to name a specific example consi...@anon 7:17 - Hard to name a specific example considering it hasn't been signed, and hasn't happened yet.<br /><br />@anon 12:44 - Of course they were. It was an election campaign - stuff like that is par for the course. Right now however, is not an election campaign (at least not presidential/legislature).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-4471434803851358012009-11-04T12:58:04.283+08:002009-11-04T12:58:04.283+08:00There is another G-20 meeting in Scotland coming u...There is another G-20 meeting in Scotland coming up (Nov09). Perhaps the ChiComs are pushing the KMTards to sign quickly so they can have more leverage at the next world.gov bankers convention.Dwayne Elizondonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-55500492157164766812009-11-04T03:48:56.221+08:002009-11-04T03:48:56.221+08:00More breaking news. ECFA talks are entering a new ...More breaking news. ECFA talks are entering a new formal stage and the signing may in fact be closer and not further than we think. Was this all a headfake? Taiwan Today reports: <br /><br />"Signs emerged Nov. 2 that talks over an economic cooperation framework agreement between Taiwan and mainland China may be entering a new phase. <br /><br />Zheng Lizhong, vice chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, arrived in Taiwan Nov. 2. He is scheduled to meet with Kao Koong-lian, vice chairman of the board, as well as secretary-general, of the Straits Exchange Foundation of Taiwan, Nov. 3. <br /><br />Sources indicated that Zheng and Kao will make a formal announcement after their meeting that official ECFA negotiations will begin before the end of the year. If true, this would mean that the status of the talks has now been elevated from an “informal” to a “formal” level. It would also mean that both Taiwan and the mainland are attempting to hasten the signing of ECFA.<br /><br />Sources familiar with how cross-strait negotiations are conducted said that if ARATS and the SEF make a joint announcement of the sort anticipated, then it will no longer matter whether any further informal negotiations are held between Taiwan’s Bureau of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the mainland’s Department of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao Affairs under the Ministry of Commerce.<br /><br />Only two days before Zheng’s arrival in Taiwan, mainland authorities informed Taiwan Nov. 1 that the informal ECFA talks due to take place in Beijing Nov. 3 would have to be postponed because officials from the mainland side “could not finish preparing their dossier on time.”Robert Scott Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17790139614002283723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-79740367404275067492009-11-04T02:22:28.293+08:002009-11-04T02:22:28.293+08:00"The Port of Kaohsiung could build some extra...<b>"The Port of Kaohsiung could build some extra capacity, but that is about it."</b><br /><br />What Kaohsiung should do is build a first class international airport that can run twenty-four hours on reclaimed land in the bay. And the MRT must be extended to the new airport. Though it has a working, convenient daytime international airport at the moment, it's limited in both passenger and cargo capacity, which makes no sense with no other major airports in the south and the huge part of Kaohsiung there.<br /><br />If Taipei can build a deep water port, then Kaohsiung can build a first class international airport. It's a major missing part of infrastructure for the southern half of Taiwan (Yunlin, Jiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung) that would also serve Hualien, Taitung, Pingtung.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-41144780809870108452009-11-04T00:44:32.877+08:002009-11-04T00:44:32.877+08:00@anon 8:29 ....the world economy has been down sin...@anon 8:29 <i>....the world economy has been down since mid-2007..the Ma govt can hardly take responsibility for the worlds ills....</i><br /><br />Don't you remember before the election the KMT was blaming all the problems in Taiwan on the DPP, not on outside influences? <br /><br />Everyone knew the global economy was tanking then, but the KMT kept insisting that it was the DPP's fault. The KMT can't use the global economy as reason now for its failure because they ignored this issue during the election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-66460318280388682772009-11-03T20:12:44.970+08:002009-11-03T20:12:44.970+08:00This is hilarious... http://www.youtube.com/watch?...This is hilarious... <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHoc5hiXcy0" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHoc5hiXcy0</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-18572657445690437472009-11-03T19:17:44.698+08:002009-11-03T19:17:44.698+08:00"Europe (and Japan to a certain extent) want ...<b>"Europe (and Japan to a certain extent) want to sign deals with Taiwan after ECFA is signed because they'd rather conduct their China business through Taiwan. The sooner Taiwan and China do the deal, the sooner Taiwan can benefit."</b><br /><br />Name a single specific example of how this is the case. The international firms that want to work with Taiwanese companies can already do so.<br /><br />Taiwanese can provide the marketing, the management, the manufacturing know-how, the communications skills that the international firms don't have. International firms could provide the cover of being non-Taiwanese, capital, scale, and sometimes brand, though the Taiwanese brands can sometimes be stronger in China. What about that is stopped by Taiwan not having an ECFA agreement?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-30439050017393627192009-11-03T18:39:46.149+08:002009-11-03T18:39:46.149+08:00Thanks for the excellent comments, Thomas.Thanks for the excellent comments, Thomas.Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-1641992264776791362009-11-03T18:39:35.168+08:002009-11-03T18:39:35.168+08:00I heard privately that officials are saying to wel...I heard privately that officials are saying to well connected visitors that ECFA is not an FTA.<br /><br />Think of it as an agreement to co-manage markets -- for China's beenfit and the benefit of selected connected Taiwan companies -- that will permit future FTAs.<br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-88468545114222132152009-11-03T16:14:14.111+08:002009-11-03T16:14:14.111+08:00From Today's Taipei Times.....
'Meanwhile...From Today's Taipei Times.....<br /><br />'Meanwhile, Su told reporters that the government had turned down a request from Xinhua news agency to interview President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) because this was not a “convenient” time.'<br /><br />Yeah. That just before an election time is never very 'convenient' for Ma to spout his 'hopes and dreams for the Chinese race' type waffle. This is one of those short windows when he has to pretend he gives a toss about the Taiwanese people.<br />What was Xinhua thinking?Maccanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-3355358278802635092009-11-03T14:45:28.613+08:002009-11-03T14:45:28.613+08:00Taiwan: To be or not to be?
http://www.taipeitime...Taiwan: To be or not to be?<br /><br />http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2009/10/12/2003455727<br /><br />Is it just me or is Taiwan headed towards becoming the first country in the history of the world that regresses from a young and troubled but fully-functioning and recognized democracy to becoming part of a gravely troubled totalitarian one-party state? China is facing a severely troubled economy with 25 million recently unemployed workers and a real possibility of violent social unrest across the nation. The apparent increase in corruption at all government levels and the rapidly widening gap between the abominably poor and obscenely rich combined with a non-existing quality control mechanism makes China a very bad choice for any kind of trade agreement, especially under a One-China policy. <br /><br />Is our current government really that weak, naïve, and short-sighted? Do they truly believe that the territory of the R.O.C, by default, includes the territory of China and therefore signing an agreement under the One-China Policy is absolutely acceptable? Or are they all positioning themselves in favorable view of China’s leaders so that when the much sought-after unification takes place they will enjoy great benefits and preferential treatment possibly even being offered positions within the communist party? Now, anyone who has spent time studying the history of China and in particular the historical, ideological and emotional differences between the Nationalists and the Communists would have to agree that this would never happen! How many Tibetan leaders, pro-China or not, were given high level positions and/or benefits that went beyond some temporary face-giving ceremonies and banquets? Hello, anybody home?<br /><br />What can Taiwan do, as it is constantly faced with the shortcomings of a “country” that isn’t recognized and doesn’t behave as one due to the political complexity and historical inaccuracy as well as the short-term, financially-oriented thinking and planning of its government and citizens?<br /><br />First, let’s focus on what we do have to offer to the world: Pristine and gorgeous East and South coasts, complete with wonderful hot springs and splendid beaches, a central mountain range that offers some of the most spectacular sights anywhere in Asia, and warm, hospitable, and extremely generous people. We must develop and cherish these assets in an ecologically sound way, promote sustainable long-term tourism, and put in place an infrastructure that can facilitate this industry and can be expanded as demand grows. <br /><br />Secondly, Taiwan has to implement and enforce tough anti-pollution laws for factories and farms, so that our rivers and coastal areas can once again be safe for harvesting seafood, so that the river water can be used as a clean irrigation source, and so that we can provide an unpolluted and fun environment for recreational activities. This includes that 100% of households and businesses are connected to waste-water treatment plants and it is imperative that this goal is achieved within the shortest possible time.<br /><br />Thirdly, Taiwanese factories in China that produce food, or goods requiring highly skilled labor, should be encouraged to relocate back to Taiwan. Government subsidies or tax breaks to offset, at least initially, higher local wages and operating costs, could boost the competitiveness of Taiwan. This would ensure and maintain the well-known, quality and safety-oriented, high standards of Taiwanese goods as well as provide much needed jobs to an ailing economy. Absolutely no food products, cosmetics, and medicines should be allowed into Taiwan until there are rigorous and enforced safety procedures operational in both countries.<br /><br />Most importantly, Taiwanese must stand together united, believe in and strive for Taiwan’s identity and recognition, fight for their rights and for their freedom, and prove to themselves and the world that democracy is here to stay! <br /><br />Dan Luthi<br />Taichung, TaiwanDan Luthihttp://www.nutraherbalsolutions.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-8645105364454801822009-11-03T14:31:00.395+08:002009-11-03T14:31:00.395+08:00I think it's amazing that a person who is not ...I think it's amazing that a person who is not of Taiwanese descent has so much concern for the small island. Thank you for your infomative and interesting blog!Jenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00730747905553999502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-80061455755653781402009-11-03T11:59:08.432+08:002009-11-03T11:59:08.432+08:00Why is the ECFA not a free trade agreement? I ask ...Why is the ECFA not a free trade agreement? I ask because I have seen the ECFA characterized as a quasi-FTA in the Liberty Times etc.<br /><br />Wikipedia:<br /><br /><i><br /><br />Free trade area is a type of trade bloc, a designated group of countries that have agreed to eliminate tariffs, quotas and preferences on most (if not all) goods and services traded between them. It can be considered the second stage of economic integration. Countries choose this kind of economic integration form if their economical structures are complementary.</i><br /><br />Is it because the first element of this definition is not met since not enough goods and services have had tariffs etc eliminated? Arguably, Taiwan and China's economies are complementary, right?Michael Faheyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11057491107522344042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-12099161090327729722009-11-03T08:29:20.433+08:002009-11-03T08:29:20.433+08:00Europe (and Japan to a certain extent) want to sig...Europe (and Japan to a certain extent) want to sign deals with Taiwan after ECFA is signed because they'd rather conduct their China business through Taiwan. The sooner Taiwan and China do the deal, the sooner Taiwan can benefit.<br /><br />Taiwan News et al pointing to low tourist numbers just shows what most already know - the media in Taiwan is terrible. Blaming tourist numbers (which are down across the board) on KMT and the TW-China agreement completely overlooks the fact that the world economy has been down since mid-2007 - tourist numbers globally are down. The Ma govt can hardly take responsibility for the worlds ills, although some in the DPP and TW media seem to think they should.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-60967092817694784122009-11-03T01:23:21.642+08:002009-11-03T01:23:21.642+08:00It's very strange. The Euro Cham is just apin...It's very strange. The Euro Cham is just aping Amcham. But they said that there could be an agreement as soon as there were direct flights too!<br /><br />Everyone else says "sign FTA with me, do it before you do it with anyone else". It's a competitive thing that they want early. But to Taiwan, they say, sign with China, maybe we'll sign with you. What the hell? How does that make any sense? Either you know it's good for you, and so you should sign it, or it's not, and signing with China won't change anything. What weirdos.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-45969242817955752882009-11-02T23:14:54.432+08:002009-11-02T23:14:54.432+08:00The Port of Kaohsiung could build some extra capac...The Port of Kaohsiung could build some extra capacity, but that is about it. As I have said before, the port may grow, but it will never again grow at the rate it did 20 years ago. Taiwan simply does not have the huge manufacturing hinterland that China does leaving it to focus on exportation of components and high-end products as well as transshipments. <br /><br />The direct links could improve the latter, but not by an enormous amount and certainly not so fast.<br /><br />The government has made it sound as if the extra containers that would come in because of the direct links would bring a windfall. In fact, they would just edge up the port's growth slightly.<br /><br />I know you know this. I wonder whether the reporter does. I have no beef with his comment that the government's promise did not pan out, but the criticism of this one point would be more effective if the reporter made the point that the supposedly massive growth was always going to be a mirage.Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.com