tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post1327285608413293145..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Economic Recovery at last?Michael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-12558454981613525122010-02-26T13:37:00.795+08:002010-02-26T13:37:00.795+08:00"When is the last time you've been to Chi...<b>"When is the last time you've been to China? It has 6 lane highways that goes to rural areas now just like US except they are brand new. Flees of brand new Boeing 737 for most domestic flights. Now it is building high speed rail-road etc."</b><br /><br />My favorite troll Arty. While China's infrastructure gains are impressive, no matter what, because China's major cities are so far spread out from each other, Taiwan will continue to have a huge advantage in this regard. Also the provinces compete against each other in a self-defeating way. Every coastal province wants a semiconductor industry. The result? None of them do because no cluster can properly form. Information just can't travel that fast in China--it's too big.<br /><br />Actually if anyone should worry, it is the US. The US has a good cluster in the Northeast but a "high speed" rail that runs maybe 75 mph. That is just unacceptable. The US might be breaking ground on one high speed rail system in Florida while China completed five or more. The benefit to real estate and business in China is quite huge.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-84615149953427105782010-02-26T07:42:24.948+08:002010-02-26T07:42:24.948+08:00that should read: "ASK someone who isn't&...that should read: "ASK someone who isn't"Marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-60525322763566997152010-02-26T07:31:12.305+08:002010-02-26T07:31:12.305+08:00I'd love to believe the economy has turned aro...I'd love to believe the economy has turned around, but it seems that the week before CNY, the economy had not recovered. Makes me think of that labor slogan: "If you think the system is working, as someone who isn't"Marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-39219825375386556632010-02-25T15:50:49.478+08:002010-02-25T15:50:49.478+08:00Arty, to be fair, transportation is almost always ...Arty, to be fair, transportation is almost always convenient on small islands with developed economies. Also, the high-speed travel infrastructure in China is currently accessible only to the middle-plus classes, not benefiting the average blue-collar.<br /><br />And asking about the last time MT visited China is probably beyond the scope of this blog--wait, he IS in China, LOL. Right?!channinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06386334271601532591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-30561212287392495412010-02-25T11:01:56.456+08:002010-02-25T11:01:56.456+08:00I don't think that Taiwan's economy is eve...I don't think that Taiwan's economy is eventually recovered provided by the remained high unemployment rate & low wage level.<br />Especially there is a term called "Oder in Taiwan & manufactur in China" which will also boost the economy growth however the actual job is not in Taiwan. I trust that when ECFA siganed, unemployment rate as well as wage level will be deteriorated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-42683774848756318552010-02-24T22:56:11.995+08:002010-02-24T22:56:11.995+08:00I concur whole heartedly to Anonymous5:4am tribute...I concur whole heartedly to Anonymous5:4am tribute to the assets Taiwan holds. I also agree with Dixtel’s assumption that the Pan Blue evinces a false sense of urgency in order to tie Taiwan closer to China economically.<br /><br />Take the number of Chinese tourists the KMT proposed foisting on the Taiwanese tourism industry. Alarms rang in my mind when I noticed that it was the number of Japanese tourists, according to government or industry data of preceding years. And it pointed at a pattern which, I would assume, applies to all Taiwan-made exports to Japan, starting with agricultural produces. <br /><br />What made the Taiwanese economy what it is owes mainly to the business acumen of all those Japanese era-educated Taiwanese who where forced into private enterprise owing to various KMT policies, including that of making public service a Waishenren-only fiefdom.<br /><br />With their background and silenced but deeply ingrained abhorrence of all things Chinese, those Taiwanese entrepreneurs did the only thing available to them. They quietly, relentlessly fostered economic ties with Japan. Meanwhile, KMT officials pretended overlooking the goings-on. Those preferred looking towards the US and Europe.<br /><br />A day will come when a KMT insider will spill the beans on how aggrieved KMT economic planners used recorded Japanese-Taiwan trade data and simply copied and pasted these in their cross-strait trade extrapolations work-sheets. And next, it’s all vintage KMT propaganda. All fib.jeromenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-82915435776655126232010-02-24T22:24:37.700+08:002010-02-24T22:24:37.700+08:00Everything on the island being within two hours of...<b>Everything on the island being within two hours of each other with the high speed rail. That is just unbelievable compared to the commutes and wide dispersal of clusters in China or the US.</b><br /><br />When is the last time you've been to China? It has 6 lane highways that goes to rural areas now just like US except they are brand new. Flees of brand new Boeing 737 for most domestic flights. Now it is building high speed rail-road etc.<br /><br />Are you starting to worry now pan-green?Artynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-13720467548779737352010-02-24T16:18:51.976+08:002010-02-24T16:18:51.976+08:00While Taiwan may seem to be doing better off, the ...While Taiwan may seem to be doing better off, the global economy is still in the drenches. If the global economy continues to lag (i.e. the US), then I see Taiwan having a hard time maintaining these growth numbers. I'm more inclined to say that the U.S. and the global economy has a "lost decade" ahead of us, similar to what Japan has gone through.Richardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13864496921909619980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-34782604733744000802010-02-24T05:45:26.423+08:002010-02-24T05:45:26.423+08:00It's still a weak recovery with regard to empl...It's still a weak recovery with regard to employment and salaries (though it's encouraging). The only way to tilt the imbalance between labor and capital back towards labor is to make it really easy for smart capital to come to Taiwan and compete against some of the big money idiots here.<br /><br />Actually Taiwan is a complete undiscovered gem when it comes to foreign capital. No capital gains taxes (yes really)!!! 10% gift and inheritance taxes! Low corporate taxes! Low income taxes!<br /><br />But Taiwan isn't some city-state with a chip on its shoulder whose only real advantage is regulatory arbitrage. It has cheap, high-quality national health-care, a workforce culture that is highly accepting of pay-for-performance, flexible wages, temp positions, contracting, and bonus-heavy salaries, and the workforce is highly, highly educated. <i>Taiwan actually knows how to make and designs stuff!</i><br /><br />Everything on the island being within two hours of each other with the high speed rail. That is just unbelievable compared to the commutes and wide dispersal of clusters in China or the US.<br /><br />If the government were smart, they would be cutting down on red-tape for applications and getting the word out. That's the only real solution to wages in Taiwan--not introducing more cheap Chinese laborers in competition with Taiwanese laborers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-85017806086582946482010-02-24T02:37:53.759+08:002010-02-24T02:37:53.759+08:00This is actully very interesting. IMO Taiwan'...This is actully very interesting. IMO Taiwan's economy can be described in 1 word - "vibrant". It does not have the same problem of NA or Europe. However, it does have some issue/delimma.<br /><br />For one thing, the average real wage stays the same or even going backward. Another one is the unemployeement rate.<br /><br />Both pan blue / pan green likes to bash Taiwan's economy. That is a good thing to some extend as it helps identifying potential problems and also put some pessimism among investors so there won't be a huge bubble. <br /><br />However, it can also create problems. Pan Blue, for example, try to create a false sense of urgency in order to tie Taiwan closer to China economically. This is an issue because 1st of all tie Taiwan closer to China might not solve Taiwan's economic problems but instead adding oil to the fire. Secondly the political implication could be so significant any economic issue becomes irrelevent in comparison. (What's the point of gaining 1% GDP when Taiwan becomes part of China).<br /><br />KMT likes to give the impression that China is the only solution, China is the only savior, when Taiwan's economy is also closely tied with the US and Japan. Thinking only of China and see China as the only solution to everything is the real economic danger of Taiwan now.Dixteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05689510846926854542noreply@blogger.com