tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post1116219861953452547..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Theology vs Reality: Rigger on TaiwanMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-45935003986935470892010-03-29T06:44:04.131+08:002010-03-29T06:44:04.131+08:00Would suggest a closer reading of the analysis bef...<b>Would suggest a closer reading of the analysis before you lambaste one of the best-connected scholars of Taiwan and the PRC.</b><br /><br />Thanks, but I suggest you see how that changes my analysis. It doesn't.<br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-20956346513048162782010-03-28T22:49:18.133+08:002010-03-28T22:49:18.133+08:00Michael and His disciples: It is painfully clear y...Michael and His disciples: It is painfully clear you did not even read Professor Rigger's entire piece. You claim there is "no mention" of the fact that Ma is also KMT chairman. The following sentence seems to make that pretty clear: <br /><br />"President Ma chairs the KMT, so the lack of support for his policies within the party reinforces the sense that he and his inner circle..."<br /><br />Would suggest a closer reading of the analysis before you lambaste one of the best-connected scholars of Taiwan and the PRC.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-86516517249455346472010-03-26T21:44:16.815+08:002010-03-26T21:44:16.815+08:00Michael,
I am grateful for your keen observation....Michael,<br /><br />I am grateful for your keen observation. It's a pity that Rigger regards Taiwanese as a object for her research rather than a friend, though I know she was well treated during her stay in Taiwan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-88155682246295503242010-03-14T16:57:59.174+08:002010-03-14T16:57:59.174+08:00Anon: "Rigger is right- tensions have indeed ...Anon: "Rigger is right- tensions have indeed reduced with the new regime. Chen's "一邊一國" policy was seen as "provocation" in both Beijing and Washington because it violated the "one China" principle that both sides adhere to." Washington does not "adhere" to the "one China principle," it acknowledges it. Just recently on its Web site, AIT clearly stated that the US does not recognize Chinese (that is, PRC) sovereignty over Taiwan. Other Western powers, including the UK, have also reaffirmed this recently (the US even filed an official complaint at the UN for language used at the international body that seemed to indicate that Taiwan was part of China).<br /><br />While Ma was elected on an economic platform, ECFA did not exist back then and no one could have predicted that his opening up would lead to the hollowing out of Taiwan's manufacture/agricultural - and eventually high-tech - sector.<br /><br />On many occasions, Ma and his administration have used language that, as I argued elsewhere, underscores the theory that for them, the Chinese civil war is still ongoing (ROC claim over all of China, CCP as illegitimate regime, etc). In such a war, the communists would win. That Ma & al want to keep fighting this war is selling out Taiwan - or irresponsibly compromising its security.<br /><br />Many of the Taiwanese who voted for Ma also expected that better relations would be attended by a draw-down of PLA forces, which hasn't occurred.J. Michael Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04793745420777048984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-54117626162805485822010-03-14T16:36:13.445+08:002010-03-14T16:36:13.445+08:00Yeah, it is shocking, and scary, that a ranking Ta...Yeah, it is shocking, and scary, that a ranking Taiwan scholar could write an article purporting to explain why Ma's approval ratings have plummeted that premised on the idea that Ma is competent. No wonder Washington lives in another galaxy. <br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-68642525085313286132010-03-14T11:54:16.799+08:002010-03-14T11:54:16.799+08:00"Of course ECFA will surrender more sovereign..."Of course ECFA will surrender more sovereignty -- that is what China has repeatedly said it will do, and that is what the Lien Chan-led brain trust wants,"<br /><br />Michael, I would like to add to what you said by referring everyone to the conclusion of the Mutan Village incident. Japan, to boldly defend the interests of the Okinawans, sent an excursionary army to Formosa. The Chinese, to get rid of them, released a document apologising for the Mutan Village incident. Although the document didn't say that Okinawa was a part of Japan, it did say that certain Japanese subjects had been slaughtered during the incident. Japan presented China's document to the world as proof that the Okinawans were Japanese and that the Chinese had recognized their position. The rest of the world went along with Japan, and China was in no position to argue when, soon after Okinawa was formally annexed by Japan.<br /><br />The point of this is that the ECFA has been trumpeted by many Chinese politicians as a One China pact that has political aims and will lead to unification. It's impact on Taiwan's economic sovereignty aside, the ECFA can seriously harm Taiwan's sovereignty without mentioning One China. This is because the Chinese have loudly proclaimed that it is not a pact between independent parties. And Ma has done very little to contradict them. In fact, he has furthered the controversy by continuously standing behind this One China fallacy publicly.<br /><br />So when the ECFA is signed, even if it has no political language, the world will interpret it as a One China document. <br /><br />I personally feel that there should be more discussion in Taiwan on the negative economic impact of the ECFA, because that is what will increase oppostion the most. But we should not forget that the atmosphere that a treaty is signed in is often just as important if not more important than the wording of the treaty itself.Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-89266238426781246522010-03-14T11:25:00.050+08:002010-03-14T11:25:00.050+08:00Good analysis of Dr Rigger's article, Michael....Good analysis of Dr Rigger's article, Michael. <br /><br />Those wise men and women inside the beltway appear to be suffering collective cognitive dissonance. On some deep level they know they have been played for dupes by the CCP-KMT tag team and that they will carry the stain of that for the rest of their careers. After all they did everything in their power to leverage the toxic KMT back into power, just as Beijing required. But of course they can't acknowledge that. Hence their supposed bafflement (acute embarrassment) that Beijing continues acting like the rogue regime that it is, determined to terminate freedom and democracy in Taiwan as soon as the US is sufficiently cowed to keep out of the fight. And further bafflement that Taiwan voters have finally cottoned on to Ma and his Quisling agenda. <br /><br />Foreign policy circles in Washington DC seem to be blinded by their we're-so-savvy realpolitik. They think they know the "national interest", which in this case requires pussyfooting around anything that China defines as a "core interest", propagating a non-factual alternative reality in which victim becomes provocateur etc, meanwhile backtracking the hell out of that vexing old commitment to Taiwan's defense. Never mind the fact that the only thing the CCP respects is strength and all it fears is truth.<br /><br />Dr Rigger and co: you are babes in the wood. No-one plays statecraft with China without looking like an amateur.Donnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-58772149752533645942010-03-14T07:52:32.313+08:002010-03-14T07:52:32.313+08:001. Ma was elected on an ECFA platform. You keep on...<b>1. Ma was elected on an ECFA platform. You keep on calling it some kind of "sellout" opposed by the Taiwanese masses. Actually he made very clear what his policy was before the election. Most voters still support closer economic cooperation with China.</b><br /><br />Ma was elected -- as I have stated many times -- to fix the economy which he said he would do by moving closer to China and preserving Taiwan's sovereignty. He has done neither.<br /><br /><b>2. Ma actually hasn't surrendered any part of Taiwan's sovereignty. ECFA will also not surrender any national sovereignty.</b><br /><br />Here you are completely wrong. Ma has proclaimed that relations with China are region to region. The Administration accepted agreements on shipping and flights that essentially make the island a "domestic" route(s) of China. Etc. <br /><br />Of course ECFA will surrender more sovereignty -- that is what China has repeatedly said it will do, and that is what the Lien Chan-led brain trust wants, and that is what Ma wants as well. Everyone in Taiwan knows that, which is why polls show that the public does not support it, and why there is widespread disgust with Ma for being too close to China. <br /><br /><b>3. Rigger is right- tensions have indeed reduced with the new regime. Chen's "一邊一國" policy was seen as "provocation" in both Beijing and Washington because it violated the "one China" principle that both sides adhere to. Of course it probably only damaged the independence movement by irritating Taiwan's key benefactor. He did it for domestic political reasons.</b><br /><br />Hahahahahahahahaha. No seriously. Hahahahahahaha. (a) Washington and Beijing adhere to different One China principles. (b) If Lee Teng-hui's "一邊一國" is provocative please explain why the missile build up is not (c) Beijing chooses what is "provocative" as a matter of policy, hence your position simply hands over control of your analysis and policy to the CCP. Tensions are "reduced" because Beijing has said they are, period. Not because there has been any concrete change in the cross strait equation -- note continuing military build up and military threats. If tensions are "reduced" why are Chinese hardliners threatening the US?<br /><br /><b>Ma is unpopular for a number of reasons. One significant factor I think is the KMT factions at the local level that refuse support unless they get their own way. Ma has tried to deal with this by promoting clean candidates from the centre, like Ye Jinchuan in Hualian.</b><br /><br />Ye was not promoted because he was "clean" but because he was Ma's friend. Ma has consistently supported corrupt candidates at the local level, and it is hard to argue that Ma himself, looking at his trial, and his lifelong opposition to democratic government, is not corrupt himself. Although I agree that KMT factionalism is a problem for managing the party, but it is a problem of the party's own making. <br /><br />Another issue I didn't cover is the structural weakness of the ROC presidency. <br /><br />I wrote a post on the resignations last night, actually, but I am trying to stay to one post a day or below. Also, I have a paid gig for writing in which I will comment on that. :)<br /><br />MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-87789345455977576342010-03-14T04:17:33.597+08:002010-03-14T04:17:33.597+08:00Seems very close parallel to Obama...just because ...Seems very close parallel to Obama...just because voters put you into power to get rid of the previous "bad party" does not necessarily mean that all of the planks you ran on are really that popular.<br /><br />Seriously, of all of the Ma campaign promises, I suspect unification-lite with China would be the least popular. Oh, maybe some vague lessening of tensions, direct flights, etc., but negotiated from a firm Taiwan position - that is probably popular. But then they take it to the next level, and it loses popularity big time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-8042107931325629462010-03-14T01:34:34.934+08:002010-03-14T01:34:34.934+08:00Very good analysis, indeed. The most I admire abou...Very good analysis, indeed. The most I admire about you, Michael, is your patience; with those "China experts".<br /><br />If my accountant came to tell me that she was "puzzled" by a hole of one million dollars in the book she keeps, I'd fire her and sue her.<br /><br />This Rigger lady basically recited news entries everybody can find on the internet, salt-and-peppered with colorful adjectives that are currently "correct" in Washington. She then told the world that she is an expert on Taiwan but Taiwan is "puzzling" and she cannot explain the events and social-political phenomena in Taiwan. And, .... she still has a job as professor of East Asian Politics?<br /><br />A real scholar would try and find the answer to a question she's identified.<br /><br />Her sheer incompetence shows in her shouting at patients: "You guys are supposed to be cured by my super-antibiotic Mayingjeou-sillyn©, why are you still so sick!?!"..."This is puzzling and I have no intention of finding out why....meanwhile, the darling germ Chinanella© is <i>tolerating the measured</i> groan of the patients."..."Yes, I am the best scientist in this field, just listen to me."<br /><br />Washington is full of such wash-hand-tons. <br /><br />Ever wonder why the US is in its current shape?SYnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-2375056090548073672010-03-14T01:30:15.492+08:002010-03-14T01:30:15.492+08:00This is a very good and interesting analysis. Tha...This is a very good and interesting analysis. Thanks, Michael.Dixteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05689510846926854542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-86073911057150084552010-03-14T00:47:27.312+08:002010-03-14T00:47:27.312+08:00Michael. Some observations:
1. Ma was elected on a...Michael. Some observations:<br />1. Ma was elected on an ECFA platform. You keep on calling it some kind of "sellout" opposed by the Taiwanese masses. Actually he made very clear what his policy was before the election. Most voters still support closer economic cooperation with China.<br />2. Ma actually hasn't surrendered any part of Taiwan's sovereignty. ECFA will also not surrender any national sovereignty.<br />3. Rigger is right- tensions have indeed reduced with the new regime. Chen's "一邊一國" policy was seen as "provocation" in both Beijing and Washington because it violated the "one China" principle that both sides adhere to. Of course it probably only damaged the independence movement by irritating Taiwan's key benefactor. He did it for domestic political reasons.<br />4. Ma is unpopular for a number of reasons. One significant factor I think is the KMT factions at the local level that refuse support unless they get their own way. Ma has tried to deal with this by promoting clean candidates from the centre, like Ye Jinchuan in Hualian. He has also used "hatchet men" like King to help him to this. This normally leads to accusations that he is "dictatorial". But when something goes wrong with corrupt local factions he also has to take the blame for tolerating criminal elements in the party! Tough job running the KMT..<br />Still I think he will probably win again in 2012, things haven't got as bad as the Chen presidency yet..<br />btw why aren't you blogging on the resignations of Ministers Yang and Wang? You seem to be missing the main issues/ controversies driving TW politics at the moment..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com