tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post9142912058814053488..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Taiwan's future already signaled by Hong Kong?Michael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-81511167511048281452013-08-20T20:40:22.799+08:002013-08-20T20:40:22.799+08:00In general, I agree that this is most concerning. ...In general, I agree that this is most concerning. I do want to throw some other possibilities in the ring though, just for the sake of being the devil's advocate.<br /><br />I had not seen the comment by the rural chieftain, but it should be mentioned that the power of rural clans has always been very strong in the New Territories. In fact, one of HK's most powerful political organizations, the Heung Yee Kuk, exists to champion local interests in the NT. <br /><br />It is unsurprising that such interests highly favor the establishment. As a land-scarce society where most land is concentrated in the NT, NT land owners have a considerable degree of interest in supporting a regime that will line their pockets with revenue. The administration of Leung Chun-ying is currently in a push to make populist brownie points by developing as much housing as it can. The administration is looking for land everywhere it can find it. Indeed, others who might also be looking for land, such as in industry, have been unable to get new government land released to them (it all goes to housing) or even private land (it is very expensive and it can be difficult to navigate the patchwork land rights system that is a holdover from the 19th century. <br /><br />FYI, the head of the Heung Yee Kuk, one Lau Wong-fat, is a billionaire land mogul. He has been entrenched for a very long time. He also sits on LegCo because the Heung Yee Kuk has a Functional Constituency seat. He also happens to be the chairman of the District Council of Tuen Mun, which neighbors Yuen Long. And, did I mention that he has huuuuge tracts of land? He is also pro-Beijing. After all, why wouldn't he or any of his allies be? They have benefited enormously from the current political arrangement. In fact, any move to really democratize HK would undermine his interests. What, the Kuk lose its functional constancy seat? What, make it possible that the Kuk and Lau himself would have to earn their place in the system? <br /><br />Now, I am sure you, like me, can't possibly imagine that some power broker in the NT would have links to triads and that that power broker might use his links to make an example of politicians that seek to up-end their apple cart. I am not implicating Lau himself, just using him as an example to point out that there are deeply entrenched interests that do not serve the current administration but that have found support for the administration expedient. And that some of them would not hesitate to call in shady types to enforce the peace in their own style. <br /><br />As for the passivity of police, the HK police and the triads have had an arrangement for a very long time. The triads pretty much do what they want. Neither side messes with the other or steps too far out of line. This is why open violence related to organized crime in HK is so low. So if you were a cop with a family, and you saw some obviously questionable characters on the scene, you might be cautious. Being daring is hardly a trait of the HK police. <br /><br />None of this means you are wrong and that things are not going in disturbing directions here (they are). It just means that the pot is almost certainly murkier than it looks on the surface. But that is Hong Kong for you. The SURFACE here always looks placid and beautiful. Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-86944707571385151402013-08-20T02:40:12.940+08:002013-08-20T02:40:12.940+08:00Hi Michael,
indeed, people in Hong Kong can clear...Hi Michael,<br /><br />indeed, people in Hong Kong can clearly feel that things are getting worse year by year. <br /><br />I don't know if you have heard of that Hong Kong primary school teacher who shouted at police officers during a demonstration because the police wasn't protecting Falun Gong practitioners from harassment by a Communist organisation. <br /><br />Well, she has been denigrated in all possible ways. The SCMP itself today had 2 articles against her, one letter from a reader that criticised her. And there was also an article by a professor who condemned the pro-democracy movement. So, four articles basically against 'dissent' in just one edition.<br /><br />Even the SCMP seems to give more voice to pro-establishment, pro-Beijing groups. Not to mention other papers, such as the Oriental Daily and the Standard... A pretty grim situation, and I don't think it's going to get any better.Aris Teonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03908667041766497133noreply@blogger.com