tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post9020580096113126196..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Minding Your P-s and Q-s at BrookingsMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-10756073635509610232008-12-17T09:53:00.000+08:002008-12-17T09:53:00.000+08:00"The Israel-Arab conflict parallel was interesting..."The Israel-Arab conflict parallel was interesting. In that conflict too there is a dynamic where the focus on process only leads one direction as Israel repeatedly gives ground by making promises and keeping them while the Arab side always gains ground by making promises and breaking them."<BR/><BR/>You and I both know that's not true. Israel gains ground by making NO promises as to territorial and security negotiations - so that it can continue to build walls for the purpose of redrawing borders, and turn a blind eye to violent settlers who continue to derail the peace process.<BR/><BR/>Likewise, I don't think there was ever a time when Taiwan had to give a (H"V) "concession" or a "promise".B.BarNavihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07860632239759681393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-10949023242949758022008-12-07T17:13:00.000+08:002008-12-07T17:13:00.000+08:00Whats this? Am I seeing dissatisfaction expressed ...Whats this? Am I seeing dissatisfaction expressed over the possible machinations of the great Obamamama? tsk tsk tsk. <BR/>After all that money they put into Taiwan blogs is this the thanks the get?<BR/><BR/>Ad remember the guiding mantra of all Taiwan..."Wu Wei Erh, Wu Pu Wei"<BR/><BR/>Learn it...Live it...Love it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-84619791677150510982008-12-06T16:38:00.000+08:002008-12-06T16:38:00.000+08:00I guess the real question is whether or not to be ...I guess the real question is whether or not to be pragmatic, but what exactly is Taiwan going?<BR/><BR/>You can be pragmatic in economic policy, you can be pragmatic about national defense development, but to what end? For economy it's probably trying to quicken economic recovery, for national defense it's probably trying to repel different possible attacks from potential enemies.<BR/><BR/>Just trying to be pragmatic for pragmatic sake is itself ideological and not pragmatic. A rough direction needs to be set first.Dixteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05689510846926854542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-46353510833074872642008-12-06T07:56:00.000+08:002008-12-06T07:56:00.000+08:00How can the US be applying "let's make money!" log...<B>How can the US be applying "let's make money!" logic to refusing to sell billions of dollars in arms to Taiwan?</B><BR/><BR/>not disrupting trade and relations with China!<BR/><BR/>MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-88796598518939805122008-12-06T03:24:00.000+08:002008-12-06T03:24:00.000+08:00The Israel-Arab conflict parallel was interesting....The Israel-Arab conflict parallel was interesting. In that conflict too there is a dynamic where the focus on <I>process</I> only leads one direction as Israel repeatedly gives ground by making promises and keeping them while the Arab side always gains ground by making promises and breaking them. <BR/><BR/>However Israel, unlike Taiwan, always has the upper hand militarily so it has been able to keep things from getting out of hand - for example they've built a much criticized wall that seems to have caused a significant reduction in terrorism.<BR/><BR/>I'm know China would have little problem making and breaking promises. Who would hold them accountable for their promises?<BR/><BR/>Taiwan could probably get away it such behavior only if China were first doing it. <BR/><BR/>If the U.S. can commit to the necessity of a Taiwan referendum to approve any merger (and to be fair, also to approve any declaration of <I>de jure</I> independenc), that would be a huge step toward making the "process" less dangerous. Preferably, the referendum on such a large change would require a super-majority for passage. (Hawaii population voted 17 to 1 to accept statehood.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-52051267101457027352008-12-06T03:11:00.000+08:002008-12-06T03:11:00.000+08:00We need not take such a negative view of "pragmati...We need not take such a negative view of "pragmatism". Rather, we should as often as possible, remind people that it is pragmatic to recognize that Taiwan and China are controlled by two separate governments. It is pragmatic to say that Taiwan must have representation on bodies whose regulations we expect Taiwan to follow. <BR/><BR/>China's claims to Taiwan are not based on pragmatism, they are based on ideology. A focus on pragmatism need not be a bad thing so long as someone is around to keep reminding others what pragmatism is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-87588690439454999802008-12-06T03:07:00.000+08:002008-12-06T03:07:00.000+08:00Mr. Turton, you seem to be using "Pragmatic" in di...Mr. Turton, you seem to be using "Pragmatic" in different ways, and interpreting it the most negative way possible in all instances.<BR/><BR/><I>Pragmatic used to mean the adoption of realistic means to reach the goals dictated by one's values, but now means "let's make money!"</I><BR/><BR/>but later you say:<BR/><BR/><I>I've already heard that the Obama Administration is going to follow the Bush Administration's lead and not sell Taiwan F-16s. It's pragmatic, I suppose....</I><BR/><BR/>How can the US be applying "let's make money!" logic to refusing to sell billions of dollars in arms to Taiwan?<BR/><BR/>More likely this refusal to sell arms reflects a value that "talk is <I>always</I> good" and a belief that weakening Taiwan will force it to talk - to enter the <I>process</I>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-44928834094208456032008-12-05T12:12:00.000+08:002008-12-05T12:12:00.000+08:00Nice write up Michael, thanks. Here is a good foll...Nice write up Michael, thanks. <BR/><BR/>Here is a good follow-up <A HREF="http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=e-KJCMWcoms" REL="nofollow">youtube</A> on the direction BHO may take the US in regards to Asia. Although I don't agree with the speaker's position on Taiwan, I think we we are heading in the direction that he mentions. The big question for me is will the US continue to support Taiwan (with perhaps the intention to destabilize China planned by Brezinski) or will the US throw Taiwan under the bus because of the financial mess its in.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-36199924365226934052008-12-05T10:00:00.000+08:002008-12-05T10:00:00.000+08:00In reality, Michael, I'm a left-leaning Redheadist...In reality, Michael, I'm a left-leaning Redheadista.<BR/><BR/>I have the recordings of the final part if you want them (up to about the last fifteen minutes). In fact, it was some of the most interesting stuff of the day, because there was less political doublespeak.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17810211372214301382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-4399567413295258702008-12-05T09:03:00.000+08:002008-12-05T09:03:00.000+08:00Did you just describe Richard Bush (and very likel...<B>Did you just describe Richard Bush (and very likely the Obama Admin) redefining "status quo" to mean "always moving in the direction of reconciliation and peace and prosperity (and unification)? Is the US ready to accept a One China reality?</B><BR/><BR/>I think the first question is a clear "yes" but the second is not answerable, because the Establishment refuses to clarify what outcome it wants, it simply keeps talking about process. That invites listeners to imagine whatever they want. Maybe they really do want Taiwan to be annexed to China, and maybe they simply believe that the Taidu forces will always be able to stop that. <BR/><BR/>But frankly, I keep wanting reassurance from Obama that we're not being sold out, and I am never getting it.<BR/><BR/>MichaelMichael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-47464203895797053662008-12-05T08:52:00.000+08:002008-12-05T08:52:00.000+08:00Michael: Thanks for a great account of Day 1. Miss...Michael: Thanks for a great account of Day 1. Missed it, as I (wasted my time) and went to the Ma Ying-jeou presser instead, where foreign correspondents treated him with a silk glove (except, perhaps, for the Dalai Lama question, which quickly made headlines).<BR/><BR/>All that stuff, of Process being the end rather than the means, is indeed worrying, and my conclusion is, just as yours, that nobody really knows what the coveted end state will be — except, perhaps, the maintenance of the so-called "status quo," which is anything but, as it is clearly in China's favor.<BR/><BR/>Day 2 at NCCU had a bit more Taiwanese flavor to it, but interestingly, they came last... and Liu Shih-chung's was cut short — the only one to suffer such a fate.J. Michael Cole 寇謐將https://www.blogger.com/profile/12125612369359079447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-23517583782505094722008-12-05T07:56:00.000+08:002008-12-05T07:56:00.000+08:00It's a well known fact redhead political views are...It's a well known fact redhead political views are the best ones to have. :-)cfimageshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17311764476271044148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-80881498903110468842008-12-05T07:03:00.000+08:002008-12-05T07:03:00.000+08:00Did you just describe Richard Bush (and very likel...Did you just describe Richard Bush (and very likely the Obama Admin) redefining "status quo" to mean "always moving in the direction of reconciliation and peace and prosperity (and unification)? Is the US ready to accept a One China reality?Amy Linhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13895193141091755070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-44045967311580254112008-12-05T02:43:00.000+08:002008-12-05T02:43:00.000+08:00So.....have Barack "The Sinophile" Obama, Joe "Chi...So.....<BR/><BR/>have Barack "The Sinophile" Obama, Joe "Child Molestor" Biden, and the rest of the Establishment assholes set the timeline for selling out Taiwan?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-35178800600387394612008-12-05T00:25:00.000+08:002008-12-05T00:25:00.000+08:00"Will they know when to draw the line, and by that..."Will they know when to draw the line, and by that, I mean go Thailand on the country and block ports, airport, take over the government, etc.?"<BR/><BR/>You will need lots of guns to overthrow the ROC, the Taiwan military establishment are rabid "Han chauvinists" as the PRC used to call them and Turton still does, and they will not take kindly to people "going Thailand" on them. The best hope for TI is to convince US and Japanese militarists to inflict a crushing military defeat on Taiwan's military (liberate Taiwan), recruit a new Taiwnese security force from the ranks of former dissidents, and make Taiwan a US/Japanese protectorate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-67605596075327197982008-12-04T23:23:00.000+08:002008-12-04T23:23:00.000+08:00Thanks for this. It all sounds very frightening. I...Thanks for this. It all sounds very frightening. I think the one wild card is the Taiwanese. Will they know when to draw the line, and by that, I mean go Thailand on the country and block ports, airport, take over the government, etc.? Ma/US/Beijing will want to make many decisions for the Taiwanese. Will anyone in Taiwan truly stand up and say NO when enough is enough? And when will anyone locally draw the line?<BR/><BR/>If nobody ever draws the line, and the populace lets annexation happen bit by bit (which, sadly enough, is a strong possibility), I can't say that the locals will have truly gotten a raw deal. Will the apathy continue?Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-26617083057271834212008-12-04T23:14:00.000+08:002008-12-04T23:14:00.000+08:00I went to the abridged version of the conference a...I went to the abridged version of the conference at NCCU today (12/4). There were two Taiwanese on the panel. One of whom, Liu Shih-chung (劉世忠), was a strong voice for the pan-green side of politics.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13061413827755873948noreply@blogger.com