tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post8755915934080612249..comments2023-10-22T18:25:39.688+08:00Comments on The View from Taiwan: Foreign Affairs Again: Glaser says sell Taiwan, buy peaceMichael Turtonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-43671724593852194692011-03-04T20:39:10.513+08:002011-03-04T20:39:10.513+08:00Very Disturbing--Obama, et al remain committed to ...Very Disturbing--Obama, et al remain committed to 'One China Policy'<br /><br />http://www.cristyli.com/?p=7399Cristy Lihttp://www.cristyli.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-5473600401454385502011-03-03T21:47:32.375+08:002011-03-03T21:47:32.375+08:00Just today I was re-reading FAR EASTERN JOURNEY, a...Just today I was re-reading FAR EASTERN JOURNEY, a 1960 travel book by Bernard Newman. In it, he describes his interview with Chiang Kai-shek in Taipei: "...he was apprehensive of the tendencies of some American factions. They appeared to think that they could appease Communist China by persuading the Nationalists to surrender Quemoy and Matsu... The Chinese Communists invite even Conservative members of parliament to Peking and persuade them that if Formosa were surrendered they would have no further territorial ambitions. Hitler used to talk in the same manner."Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07213320098161365101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-88467103404039413362011-03-03T17:21:30.838+08:002011-03-03T17:21:30.838+08:00"but there is actually little reason to belie..."but there is actually little reason to believe that it (China) has or will develop grand territorial ambitions in its region or beyond"<br /><br />Huh? What planet does this meat-stick live on?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-34849539601502280292011-03-03T15:43:48.968+08:002011-03-03T15:43:48.968+08:00Some people do not know about China's modern h...Some people do not know about China's modern history. They seem to think China is a very peaceful country. <br /><br />Since the formation of the PRC, they have fought the following countries:<br /><br />Tibet, Korea, Burma, India, The Soviet Union, and Vietnam.<br /><br />Hell, 30% of those were communist brothers!<br /><br />Now, imagine a China with excess male population and hyper-nationalism stoked by an authoritarian government that uses it to stay in power.<br /><br />The US starts to pull back, watch out.<br /><br />Red AAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-18384230817942000512011-03-03T02:08:48.998+08:002011-03-03T02:08:48.998+08:00Excellent post, Michael! You didn't mention th...Excellent post, Michael! You didn't mention the word 'democracy' even once, removling criticism that you are merely a foreign policy idealist. So there are strong realist as well as idealist reasons why Glaser's advice is badly mistaken. Let's hope some of these get into print in prominent places sooner rather than later.Julianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10544888878269982586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-45711444627287862902011-03-02T23:51:39.139+08:002011-03-02T23:51:39.139+08:00Almost expected to see "peace for our time&qu...Almost expected to see "peace for our time" somewhere on the page :-)<br /><br />And since when has the leadership in Beijing acted rationally? (ok, lots of subjectiveness here but its just an opinion). The latest being some last minute reversals of press freedoms. That'll make great impressions. Well, maybe not great but still negative.cephalolessnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-2673640717897159172011-03-02T21:02:27.945+08:002011-03-02T21:02:27.945+08:00Aside from moral responsibility which the US needs...Aside from moral responsibility which the US needs to enforce to assure their allies of her commitment, it just does not make sense to me. Would anyone send a good friend to a lion’s engulfing, so that the lion would not hurt himself? <br /><br />It just amazes me that anybody would advocate to sell out a country that has possibly the most US-friendly citizens to a country that has citizens educated by a regime to be hostile to the United States.Jadenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-55596902449696602022011-03-02T20:31:50.320+08:002011-03-02T20:31:50.320+08:00I'll give an author credit for a lack of concr...I'll give an author credit for a lack of concreteness, when he is testing new waters - and it's hard to deny that Glaser is doing just that. <br /><br />But even if he was right in believing that a "return" of Taiwan to China could placate Beijing, and China's nationalist public, he would still risk America's standing among its allies. It is an illusion to believe that America had "successfully de-americanized" the conflict by diplomatically "de-recognizing" Taiwan. American loyalty to Taiwan is the litmus test of American reliability, and expanding alliances with other countries in the region only makes sense if America stands by Taiwan. <br /><br />That said, being a <i>hegemon</i> is costly, and America's wealth is limited. If China's neighbors want America to keep the region secure, they themselves will need to do their share. Having America as the mean bogeyman who "provokes" China, and entering into one free-trade agreement after another with China is an unsustainable business model - for America, that is.justrecentlyhttp://justrecently.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-26203868141777461202011-03-02T14:07:37.281+08:002011-03-02T14:07:37.281+08:00I am aware of Arunachal's recent addition to I...I am aware of Arunachal's recent addition to India BUT it is not part of China. And if China hadn't annexed Tibet, there would be no claim to Arunachal Pradesh. That claim gives insight into how China is likely to behave if it is given Taiwan.Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-83307710767162330052011-03-02T13:16:54.693+08:002011-03-02T13:16:54.693+08:00we are headed for hegemonic war at this point, pro...<b>we are headed for hegemonic war at this point, probably more than one...snip.......until the regime in Beijing disappears from history.</b><br /><br />War in East Asia is very, very unlikely. It can easily be avoided by the US not getting involved and taking a hands-off approach to the situation. The world is more likely to end in a 2012 disaster than there be a major conflict in this region.<br /><br />War between India and China is also unlikely. Worst case scenario would likely be small scale skirmish. Remember Arunchal Pradesh has only really been part of India for a short time - historically and ethnically the area is more similar to Tibet or Burma.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-27139649057052935722011-03-02T11:46:39.841+08:002011-03-02T11:46:39.841+08:00Glaser is one of the main proponents of defensive ...Glaser is one of the main proponents of defensive realism, which theorizes that if states act rationally they can avoid conflict, or the conditions of miscalculation that lead to conflict.<br /><br />While avoiding war anywhere is a desirable goal, I agree with you, Michael, that Glaser seems to hypothesize an ideal situation where everyone will be perfectly agreeable, without reaching beyond their stated "core interests." And as you say, he deftly hops over what the core interests are!<br /><br />This feels like wishful thinking to me, if we judge the patterns of history.Marchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12797151828110236476noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-25094110765192361592011-03-02T06:17:05.458+08:002011-03-02T06:17:05.458+08:00Love the cycling pics Michael.
23 million eh? The ...Love the cycling pics Michael.<br />23 million eh? The same population as Australia. It has been mooted by Islamic militants that Oz should be an Islamic state and part of Indonesia. Would the US sell out this country of 23 million to Indonesia in a conflict? Well we are largely a white Anglo Saxon protestant nation and have lots of strategic resources and lots of foreign investment so I guess the answer is an emphatic no. But times change and historically the "allies" were prepared to concede Australian territory to Japan in WWII. Just like the Palestinians were sold out. Taiwan's security could be further boosted by strategic foreign investment with countries who individually or collectively are strong enough to resist aggression. Problem is most countries are scared stiff of China. Our own Kevin Rudd, educated at Taipei 1 university NEVER mentioned Taiwan and was always very careful to be conciliatory to China.Geoffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-13238559441380214722011-03-02T05:19:52.954+08:002011-03-02T05:19:52.954+08:00I don't even know what possible thing Glaser t...I don't even know what possible thing Glaser thinks the USA has to gain from such a cynical sell-out. At the moment, the USA is holding almost all the cards. <br /><br />What does China have to exchange for such concessions? Peace? But peace is what we have now, without selling anyone out.<br /><br />And does he really think the situation on the Korean peninsula, in the South and East China seas, and on China's land borders with Vietnam and India are "crystal clear"? Has he forgotten that there are two Koreas, one supported by Beijing and one by the US? Has forgotten that China's claims in the seas around it clash with its neighbours? <br /><br />The truth is that the US only originally compromised on the ROC because of the Vietnam war and the potential to split the communist world. Neither of these things are an issue any more, even from a position of strict realpolitik a renewed sell-out makes no sense.Gilman Grundyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-69357084580296899582011-03-01T22:07:16.641+08:002011-03-01T22:07:16.641+08:00This is probably one of the best articles you have...This is probably one of the best articles you have written in a long time, Michael. I totally agree with you and I believe that America won't be so stupid to concede Taiwan to China. You don't need to be a right-wing hardliner to realize, that it would be disastrous and stupid to do so.Morgan F.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-44490430954302100012011-03-01T20:58:11.847+08:002011-03-01T20:58:11.847+08:00One disaster at a time, man.One disaster at a time, man.Michael Turtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17974403961870976346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10698887.post-44882381710133582402011-03-01T20:46:56.401+08:002011-03-01T20:46:56.401+08:00And if the next regime in Beijing is similarly nat...And if the next regime in Beijing is similarly nationalist or aggressive? What then?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com